Clonal haematopoiesis and risk of chronic liver disease.

Chronic liver disease is a major public health burden worldwide1. Although different aetiologies and mechanisms of liver injury exist, progression of chronic liver disease follows a common pathway of liver inflammation, injury and fibrosis2. Here we examined the association between clonal haematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) and chronic liver disease in 214,563 individuals from 4 independent cohorts with whole-exome sequencing data (Framingham Heart Study, Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, UK Biobank and Mass General Brigham Biobank). CHIP was associated with an increased risk of prevalent and incident chronic liver disease (odds ratio = 2.01, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) [1.46, 2.79]; P < 0.001). Individuals with CHIP were more likely to demonstrate liver inflammation and fibrosis detectable by magnetic resonance imaging compared to those without CHIP (odds ratio = 1.74, 95% CI [1.16, 2.60]; P = 0.007). To assess potential causality, Mendelian randomization analyses showed that genetic predisposition to CHIP was associated with a greater risk of chronic liver disease (odds ratio = 2.37, 95% CI [1.57, 3.6]; P < 0.001). In a dietary model of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, mice transplanted with Tet2-deficient haematopoietic cells demonstrated more severe liver inflammation and fibrosis. These effects were mediated by the NLRP3 inflammasome and increased levels of expression of downstream inflammatory cytokines in Tet2-deficient macrophages. In summary, clonal haematopoiesis is associated with an elevated risk of liver inflammation and chronic liver disease progression through an aberrant inflammatory response.

Clonal Hematopoiesis of Indeterminate Potential With Loss of Tet2 Enhances Risk for Atrial Fibrillation Through Nlrp3 Inflammasome Activation.

BACKGROUND: Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP), a common age-associated phenomenon, associates with increased risk of both hematological malignancy and cardiovascular disease. Although CHIP is known to increase the risk of myocardial infarction and heart failure, the influence of CHIP in cardiac arrhythmias, such as atrial fibrillation (AF), is less explored. METHODS: CHIP prevalence was determined in the UK Biobank, and incident AF analysis was stratified by CHIP status and clone size using Cox proportional hazard models. Lethally irradiated mice were transplanted with hematopoietic-specific loss of Tet2, hematopoietic-specific loss of Tet2 and Nlrp3, or wild-type control and fed a Western diet, compounded with or without NLRP3 (NLR [NACHT, LRR {leucine rich repeat}] family pyrin domain containing protein 3) inhibitor, NP3-361, for 6 to 9 weeks. Mice underwent in vivo invasive electrophysiology studies and ex vivo optical mapping. Cardiomyocytes from Ldlr-/- mice with hematopoietic-specific loss of Tet2 or wild-type control and fed a Western diet were isolated to evaluate calcium signaling dynamics and analysis. Cocultures of pluripotent stem cell-derived atrial cardiomyocytes were incubated with Tet2-deficient bone marrow-derived macrophages, wild-type control, or cytokines IL-1ß (interleukin 1ß) or IL-6 (interleukin 6). RESULTS: Analysis of the UK Biobank showed individuals with CHIP, in particular TET2 CHIP, have increased incident AF. Hematopoietic-specific inactivation of Tet2 increases AF propensity in atherogenic and nonatherogenic mouse models and is associated with increased Nlrp3 expression and CaMKII (Ca2+/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II) activation, with AF susceptibility prevented by inactivation of Nlrp3. Cardiomyocytes isolated from Ldlr-/- mice with hematopoietic inactivation of Tet2 and fed a Western diet have impaired calcium release from the sarcoplasmic reticulum into the cytosol, contributing to atrial arrhythmogenesis. Abnormal sarcoplasmic reticulum calcium release was recapitulated in cocultures of cardiomyocytes with the addition of Tet2-deficient macrophages or cytokines IL-1ß or IL-6. CONCLUSIONS: We identified a modest association between CHIP, particularly TET2 CHIP, and incident AF in the UK Biobank population. In a mouse model of AF resulting from hematopoietic-specific inactivation of Tet2, we propose altered calcium handling as an arrhythmogenic mechanism, dependent on Nlrp3 inflammasome activation. Our data are in keeping with previous studies of CHIP in cardiovascular disease, and further studies into the therapeutic potential of NLRP3 inhibition for individuals with TET2 CHIP may be warranted.

A practical approach to curate clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential in human genetic data sets.

Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) is a common form of age-related somatic mosaicism that is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. CHIP mutations can be identified in peripheral blood samples that are sequenced using approaches that cover the whole genome, the whole exome, or targeted genetic regions; however, differentiating true CHIP mutations from sequencing artifacts and germ line variants is a considerable bioinformatic challenge. We present a stepwise method that combines filtering based on sequencing metrics, variant annotation, and population-based associations to increase the accuracy of CHIP calls. We apply this approach to ascertain CHIP in ∼550 000 individuals in the UK Biobank complete whole exome cohort and the All of Us Research Program initial whole genome release cohort. CHIP ascertainment on this scale unmasks recurrent artifactual variants and highlights the importance of specialized filtering approaches for several genes, including TET2 and ASXL1. We show how small changes in filtering parameters can considerably increase CHIP misclassification and reduce the effect size of epidemiological associations. Our high-fidelity call set refines previous population-based associations of CHIP with incident outcomes. For example, the annualized incidence of myeloid malignancy in individuals with small CHIP clones is 0.03% per year, which increases to 0.5% per year among individuals with very large CHIP clones. We also find a significantly lower prevalence of CHIP in individuals of self-reported Latino or Hispanic ethnicity in All of Us, highlighting the importance of including diverse populations. The standardization of CHIP calling will increase the fidelity of CHIP epidemiological work and is required for clinical CHIP diagnostic assays.

Clonal haematopoiesis of indeterminate potential predicts incident cardiac arrhythmias.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Clonal haematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP), the age-related expansion of blood cells with preleukemic mutations, is associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and heart failure. This study aimed to test the association of CHIP with new-onset arrhythmias. METHODS: UK Biobank participants without prevalent arrhythmias were included. Co-primary study outcomes were supraventricular arrhythmias, bradyarrhythmias, and ventricular arrhythmias. Secondary outcomes were cardiac arrest, atrial fibrillation, and any arrhythmia. Associations of any CHIP [variant allele fraction (VAF) ≥ 2%], large CHIP (VAF ≥10%), and gene-specific CHIP subtypes with incident arrhythmias were evaluated using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression. Associations of CHIP with myocardial interstitial fibrosis [T1 measured using cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR)] were also tested. RESULTS: This study included 410 702 participants [CHIP: n = 13 892 (3.4%); large CHIP: n = 9191 (2.2%)]. Any and large CHIP were associated with multi-variable-adjusted hazard ratios of 1.11 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.18; P = .001] and 1.13 (95% CI 1.05-1.22; P = .001) for supraventricular arrhythmias, 1.09 (95% CI 1.01-1.19; P = .031) and 1.13 (95% CI 1.03-1.25; P = .011) for bradyarrhythmias, and 1.16 (95% CI, 1.00-1.34; P = .049) and 1.22 (95% CI 1.03-1.45; P = .021) for ventricular arrhythmias, respectively. Associations were independent of coronary artery disease and heart failure. Associations were also heterogeneous across arrhythmia subtypes and strongest for cardiac arrest. Gene-specific analyses revealed an increased risk of arrhythmias across driver genes other than DNMT3A. Large CHIP was associated with 1.31-fold odds (95% CI 1.07-1.59; P = .009) of being in the top quintile of myocardial fibrosis by CMR. CONCLUSIONS: CHIP may represent a novel risk factor for incident arrhythmias, indicating a potential target for modulation towards arrhythmia prevention and treatment.

Genome-wide association study on 13 167 individuals identifies regulators of blood CD34+cell levels.

Stem cell transplantation is a cornerstone in the treatment of blood malignancies. The most common method to harvest stem cells for transplantation is by leukapheresis, requiring mobilization of CD34+ hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs) from the bone marrow into the blood. Identifying the genetic factors that control blood CD34+ cell levels could reveal new drug targets for HSPC mobilization. Here we report the first large-scale, genome-wide association study on blood CD34+ cell levels. Across 13 167 individuals, we identify 9 significant and 2 suggestive associations, accounted for by 8 loci (PPM1H, CXCR4, ENO1-RERE, ITGA9, ARHGAP45, CEBPA, TERT, and MYC). Notably, 4 of the identified associations map to CXCR4, showing that bona fide regulators of blood CD34+ cell levels can be identified through genetic variation. Further, the most significant association maps to PPM1H, encoding a serine/threonine phosphatase never previously implicated in HSPC biology. PPM1H is expressed in HSPCs, and the allele that confers higher blood CD34+ cell levels downregulates PPM1H. Through functional fine-mapping, we find that this downregulation is caused by the variant rs772557-A, which abrogates an MYB transcription factor-binding site in PPM1H intron 1 that is active in specific HSPC subpopulations, including hematopoietic stem cells, and interacts with the promoter by chromatin looping. Furthermore, PPM1H knockdown increases the proportion of CD34+ and CD34+90+ cells in cord blood assays. Our results provide the first large-scale analysis of the genetic architecture of blood CD34+ cell levels and warrant further investigation of PPM1H as a potential inhibition target for stem cell mobilization.

TET2-mutant clonal hematopoiesis and risk of gout.

Gout is a common inflammatory arthritis caused by precipitation of monosodium urate (MSU) crystals in individuals with hyperuricemia. Acute flares are accompanied by secretion of proinflammatory cytokines, including interleukin-1ß (IL-1ß). Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) is an age-related condition predisposing to hematologic cancers and cardiovascular disease. CHIP is associated with elevated IL-1ß, thus we investigated CHIP as a risk factor for gout. To test the clinical association between CHIP and gout, we analyzed whole exome sequencing data from 177 824 individuals in the MGB Biobank (MGBB) and UK Biobank (UKB). In both cohorts, the frequency of gout was higher among individuals with CHIP than without CHIP (MGBB, CHIP with variant allele fraction [VAF] ≥2%: odds ratio [OR], 1.69; 95% CI, 1.09-2.61; P = .0189; UKB, CHIP with VAF ≥10%: OR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.05-1.50; P = .0133). Moreover, individuals with CHIP and a VAF ≥10% had an increased risk of incident gout (UKB: hazard ratio [HR], 1.28; 95% CI, 1.06-1.55; P = .0107). In murine models of gout pathogenesis, animals with Tet2 knockout hematopoietic cells had exaggerated IL-1ß secretion and paw edema upon administration of MSU crystals. Tet2 knockout macrophages elaborated higher levels of IL-1ß in response to MSU crystals in vitro, which was ameliorated through genetic and pharmacologic Nlrp3 inflammasome inhibition. These studies show that TET2-mutant CHIP is associated with an increased risk of gout in humans and that MSU crystals lead to elevated IL-1ß levels in Tet2 knockout murine models. We identify CHIP as an amplifier of NLRP3-dependent inflammatory responses to MSU crystals in patients with gout.

Association of clonal hematopoiesis with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with age and smoking, but other determinants of the disease are incompletely understood. Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) is a common, age-related state in which somatic mutations in clonal blood populations induce aberrant inflammatory responses. Patients with CHIP have an elevated risk for cardiovascular disease, but the association of CHIP with COPD remains unclear. We analyzed whole-genome sequencing and whole-exome sequencing data to detect CHIP in 48 835 patients, of whom 8444 had moderate to very severe COPD, from four separate cohorts with COPD phenotyping and smoking history. We measured emphysema in murine models in which Tet2 was deleted in hematopoietic cells. In the COPDGene cohort, individuals with CHIP had risks of moderate-to-severe, severe, or very severe COPD that were 1.6 (adjusted 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-2.2) and 2.2 (adjusted 95% CI, 1.5-3.2) times greater than those for noncarriers. These findings were consistently observed in three additional cohorts and meta-analyses of all patients. CHIP was also associated with decreased FEV1% predicted in the COPDGene cohort (mean between-group differences, -5.7%; adjusted 95% CI, -8.8% to -2.6%), a finding replicated in additional cohorts. Smoke exposure was associated with a small but significant increased risk of having CHIP (odds ratio, 1.03 per 10 pack-years; 95% CI, 1.01-1.05 per 10 pack-years) in the meta-analysis of all patients. Inactivation of Tet2 in mouse hematopoietic cells exacerbated the development of emphysema and inflammation in models of cigarette smoke exposure. Somatic mutations in blood cells are associated with the development and severity of COPD, independent of age and cumulative smoke exposure.

Premature Menopause, Clonal Hematopoiesis, and Coronary Artery Disease in Postmenopausal Women.

BACKGROUND: Premature menopause is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease in women, but mechanisms underlying this association remain unclear. Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP), the age-related expansion of hematopoietic cells with leukemogenic mutations without detectable malignancy, is associated with accelerated atherosclerosis. Whether premature menopause is associated with CHIP is unknown. METHODS: We included postmenopausal women from the UK Biobank (n=11 495) aged 40 to 70 years with whole exome sequences and from the Women's Health Initiative (n=8111) aged 50 to 79 years with whole genome sequences. Premature menopause was defined as natural or surgical menopause occurring before age 40 years. Co-primary outcomes were the presence of any CHIP and CHIP with variant allele frequency >0.1. Logistic regression tested the association of premature menopause with CHIP, adjusted for age, race, the first 10 principal components of ancestry, smoking, diabetes, and hormone therapy use. Secondary analyses considered natural versus surgical premature menopause and gene-specific CHIP subtypes. Multivariable-adjusted Cox models tested the association between CHIP and incident coronary artery disease. RESULTS: The sample included 19 606 women, including 418 (2.1%) with natural premature menopause and 887 (4.5%) with surgical premature menopause. Across cohorts, CHIP prevalence in postmenopausal women with versus without a history of premature menopause was 8.8% versus 5.5% (P<0.001), respectively. After multivariable adjustment, premature menopause was independently associated with CHIP (all CHIP: odds ratio, 1.36 [95% 1.10-1.68]; P=0.004; CHIP with variant allele frequency >0.1: odds ratio, 1.40 [95% CI, 1.10-1.79]; P=0.007). Associations were larger for natural premature menopause (all CHIP: odds ratio, 1.73 [95% CI, 1.23-2.44]; P=0.001; CHIP with variant allele frequency >0.1: odds ratio, 1.91 [95% CI, 1.30-2.80]; P<0.001) but smaller and nonsignificant for surgical premature menopause. In gene-specific analyses, only DNMT3A CHIP was significantly associated with premature menopause. Among postmenopausal middle-aged women, CHIP was independently associated with incident coronary artery disease (hazard ratio associated with all CHIP: 1.36 [95% CI, 1.07-1.73]; P=0.012; hazard ratio associated with CHIP with variant allele frequency >0.1: 1.48 [95% CI, 1.13-1.94]; P=0.005). CONCLUSIONS: Premature menopause, especially natural premature menopause, is independently associated with CHIP among postmenopausal women. Natural premature menopause may serve as a risk signal for predilection to develop CHIP and CHIP-associated cardiovascular disease.

Clonal Hematopoiesis Is Associated With Higher Risk of Stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) is a novel age-related risk factor for cardiovascular disease-related morbidity and mortality. The association of CHIP with risk of incident ischemic stroke was reported previously in an exploratory analysis including a small number of incident stroke cases without replication and lack of stroke subphenotyping. The purpose of this study was to discover whether CHIP is a risk factor for ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke. METHODS: We utilized plasma genome sequence data of blood DNA to identify CHIP in 78 752 individuals from 8 prospective cohorts and biobanks. We then assessed the association of CHIP and commonly mutated individual CHIP driver genes (DNMT3A, TET2, and ASXL1) with any stroke, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke. RESULTS: CHIP was associated with an increased risk of total stroke (hazard ratio, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.03-1.27]; P=0.01) after adjustment for age, sex, and race. We observed associations with CHIP with risk of hemorrhagic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.01-1.51]; P=0.04) and with small vessel ischemic stroke subtypes. In gene-specific association results, TET2 showed the strongest association with total stroke and ischemic stroke, whereas DMNT3A and TET2 were each associated with increased risk of hemorrhagic stroke. CONCLUSIONS: CHIP is associated with an increased risk of stroke, particularly with hemorrhagic and small vessel ischemic stroke. Future studies clarifying the relationship between CHIP and subtypes of stroke are needed.

MPRAscore: robust and non-parametric analysis of massively parallel reporter assays.

MOTIVATION: Massively parallel reporter assays (MPRA) enable systematic screening of DNA sequence variants for effects on transcriptional activity. However, convenient analysis tools are still needed. RESULTS: We introduce MPRAscore, a novel tool to infer allele-specific effects on transcription from MPRA data. MPRAscore uses a weighted, variance-regularized method to calculate variant effect sizes robustly, and a permutation approach to test for significance without assuming normality or independence. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Source code (C++), precompiled binaries and data used in the paper at https://github.com/abhisheknrl/MPRAscore and https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/bioproject/PRJNA554195. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

How good are pathogenicity predictors in detecting benign variants?

Computational tools are widely used for interpreting variants detected in sequencing projects. The choice of these tools is critical for reliable variant impact interpretation for precision medicine and should be based on systematic performance assessment. The performance of the methods varies widely in different performance assessments, for example due to the contents and sizes of test datasets. To address this issue, we obtained 63,160 common amino acid substitutions (allele frequency ≥1% and <25%) from the Exome Aggregation Consortium (ExAC) database, which contains variants from 60,706 genomes or exomes. We evaluated the specificity, the capability to detect benign variants, for 10 variant interpretation tools. In addition to overall specificity of the tools, we tested their performance for variants in six geographical populations. PON-P2 had the best performance (95.5%) followed by FATHMM (86.4%) and VEST (83.5%). While these tools had excellent performance, the poorest method predicted more than one third of the benign variants to be disease-causing. The results allow choosing reliable methods for benign variant interpretation, for both research and clinical purposes, as well as provide a benchmark for method developers.

ProTstab - predictor for cellular protein stability.

BACKGROUND: Stability is one of the most fundamental intrinsic characteristics of proteins and can be determined with various methods. Characterization of protein properties does not keep pace with increase in new sequence data and therefore even basic properties are not known for far majority of identified proteins. There have been some attempts to develop predictors for protein stabilities; however, they have suffered from small numbers of known examples. RESULTS: We took benefit of results from a recently developed cellular stability method, which is based on limited proteolysis and mass spectrometry, and developed a machine learning method using gradient boosting of regression trees. ProTstab method has high performance and is well suited for large scale prediction of protein stabilities. CONCLUSIONS: The Pearson's correlation coefficient was 0.793 in 10-fold cross validation and 0.763 in independent blind test. The corresponding values for mean absolute error are 0.024 and 0.036, respectively. Comparison with a previously published method indicated ProTstab to have superior performance. We used the method to predict stabilities of all the remaining proteins in the entire human proteome and then correlated the predicted stabilities to protein chain lengths of isoforms and to localizations of proteins.

PON-mt-tRNA: a multifactorial probability-based method for classification of mitochondrial tRNA variations.

Transfer RNAs (tRNAs) are essential for encoding the transcribed genetic information from DNA into proteins. Variations in the human tRNAs are involved in diverse clinical phenotypes. Interestingly, all pathogenic variations in tRNAs are located in mitochondrial tRNAs (mt-tRNAs). Therefore, it is crucial to identify pathogenic variations in mt-tRNAs for disease diagnosis and proper treatment. We collected mt-tRNA variations using a classification based on evidence from several sources and used the data to develop a multifactorial probability-based prediction method, PON-mt-tRNA, for classification of mt-tRNA single nucleotide substitutions. We integrated a machine learning-based predictor and an evidence-based likelihood ratio for pathogenicity using evidence of segregation, biochemistry and histochemistry to predict the posterior probability of pathogenicity of variants. The accuracy and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) of PON-mt-tRNA are 1.00 and 0.99, respectively. In the absence of evidence from segregation, biochemistry and histochemistry, PON-mt-tRNA classifies variations based on the machine learning method with an accuracy and MCC of 0.69 and 0.39, respectively. We classified all possible single nucleotide substitutions in all human mt-tRNAs using PON-mt-tRNA. The variations in the loops are more often tolerated compared to the variations in stems. The anticodon loop contains comparatively more predicted pathogenic variations than the other loops. PON-mt-tRNA is available at http://structure.bmc.lu.se/PON-mt-tRNA/.

PON-tstab: Protein Variant Stability Predictor. Importance of Training Data Quality.

Several methods have been developed to predict effects of amino acid substitutions on protein stability. Benchmark datasets are essential for method training and testing and have numerous requirements including that the data is representative for the investigated phenomenon. Available machine learning algorithms for variant stability have all been trained with ProTherm data. We noticed a number of issues with the contents, quality and relevance of the database. There were errors, but also features that had not been clearly communicated. Consequently, all machine learning variant stability predictors have been trained on biased and incorrect data. We obtained a corrected dataset and trained a random forests-based tool, PON-tstab, applicable to variants in any organism. Our results highlight the importance of the benchmark quality, suitability and appropriateness. Predictions are provided for three categories: stability decreasing, increasing and those not affecting stability.

PON-P and PON-P2 predictor performance in CAGI challenges: Lessons learned.

Computational tools are widely used for ranking and prioritizing variants for characterizing their disease relevance. Since numerous tools have been developed, they have to be properly assessed before being applied. Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) experiments have significantly contributed toward the assessment of prediction methods for various tasks. Within and outside the CAGI, we have addressed several questions that facilitate development and assessment of variation interpretation tools. These areas include collection and distribution of benchmark datasets, their use for systematic large-scale method assessment, and the development of guidelines for reporting methods and their performance. For us, CAGI has provided a chance to experiment with new ideas, test the application areas of our methods, and network with other prediction method developers. In this article, we discuss our experiences and lessons learned from the various CAGI challenges. We describe our approaches, their performance, and impact of CAGI on our research. Finally, we discuss some of the possibilities that CAGI experiments have opened up and make some suggestions for future experiments.

Predicting Severity of Disease-Causing Variants.

Most diseases, including those of genetic origin, express a continuum of severity. Clinical interventions for numerous diseases are based on the severity of the phenotype. Predicting severity due to genetic variants could facilitate diagnosis and choice of therapy. Although computational predictions have been used as evidence for classifying the disease relevance of genetic variants, special tools for predicting disease severity in large scale are missing. Here, we manually curated a dataset containing variants leading to severe and less severe phenotypes and studied the abilities of variation impact predictors to distinguish between them. We found that these tools cannot separate the two groups of variants. Then, we developed a novel machine-learning-based method, PON-PS (http://structure.bmc.lu.se/PON-PS), for the classification of amino acid substitutions associated with benign, severe, and less severe phenotypes. We tested the method using an independent test dataset and variants in four additional proteins. For distinguishing severe and nonsevere variants, PON-PS showed an accuracy of 61% in the test dataset, which is higher than for existing tolerance prediction methods. PON-PS is the first generic tool developed for this task. The tool can be used together with other evidence for improving diagnosis and prognosis and for prioritization of preventive interventions, clinical monitoring, and molecular tests.

Performance of in silico tools for the evaluation of p16INK4a (CDKN2A) variants in CAGI.

Correct phenotypic interpretation of variants of unknown significance for cancer-associated genes is a diagnostic challenge as genetic screenings gain in popularity in the next-generation sequencing era. The Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) experiment aims to test and define the state of the art of genotype-phenotype interpretation. Here, we present the assessment of the CAGI p16INK4a challenge. Participants were asked to predict the effect on cellular proliferation of 10 variants for the p16INK4a tumor suppressor, a cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor encoded by the CDKN2A gene. Twenty-two pathogenicity predictors were assessed with a variety of accuracy measures for reliability in a medical context. Different assessment measures were combined in an overall ranking to provide more robust results. The R scripts used for assessment are publicly available from a GitHub repository for future use in similar assessment exercises. Despite a limited test-set size, our findings show a variety of results, with some methods performing significantly better. Methods combining different strategies frequently outperform simpler approaches. The best predictor, Yang&Zhou lab, uses a machine learning method combining an empirical energy function measuring protein stability with an evolutionary conservation term. The p16INK4a challenge highlights how subtle structural effects can neutralize otherwise deleterious variants.