A moment kernel machine for clinical data mining to inform medical decision making.

Machine learning-aided medical decision making presents three major challenges: achieving model parsimony, ensuring credible predictions, and providing real-time recommendations with high computational efficiency. In this paper, we formulate medical decision making as a classification problem and develop a moment kernel machine (MKM) to tackle these challenges. The main idea of our approach is to treat the clinical data of each patient as a probability distribution and leverage moment representations of these distributions to build the MKM, which transforms the high-dimensional clinical data to low-dimensional representations while retaining essential information. We then apply this machine to various pre-surgical clinical datasets to predict surgical outcomes and inform medical decision making, which requires significantly less computational power and time for classification while yielding favorable performance compared to existing methods. Moreover, we utilize synthetic datasets to demonstrate that the developed moment-based data mining framework is robust to noise and missing data, and achieves model parsimony giving an efficient way to generate satisfactory predictions to aid personalized medical decision making.

TRACE-Omicron: Policy Counterfactuals to Inform Mitigation of COVID-19 Spread in the United States.

The Omicron wave was the largest wave of COVID-19 pandemic to date, more than doubling any other in terms of cases and hospitalizations in the United States. In this paper, we present a large-scale agent-based model of policy interventions that could have been implemented to mitigate the Omicron wave. Our model takes into account the behaviors of individuals and their interactions with one another within a nationally representative population, as well as the efficacy of various interventions such as social distancing, mask wearing, testing, tracing, and vaccination. We use the model to simulate the impact of different policy scenarios and evaluate their potential effectiveness in controlling the spread of the virus. Our results suggest the Omicron wave could have been substantially curtailed via a combination of interventions comparable in effectiveness to extreme and unpopular singular measures such as widespread closure of schools and workplaces, and highlight the importance of early and decisive action.