Epidemiological description of and response to a large yellow fever outbreak in Edo state Nigeria, September 2018 - January 2019.

BACKGROUND: Edo State Surveillance Unit observed the emergence of a disease with "no clear-cut-diagnosis", which affected peri-urban Local Government Areas (LGAs) from September 6 to November 1, 2018. On notification, the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control deployed a Rapid Response Team (RRT) to support outbreak investigation and response activities in the State. This study describes the epidemiology of and response to a large yellow fever (YF) outbreak in Edo State. METHODS: A cross-sectional descriptive outbreak investigation of YF outbreak in Edo State. A suspected case of YF was defined as "Any person residing in Edo State with acute onset of fever and jaundice appearing within 14 days of onset of the first symptoms from September 2018 to January 2019". Our response involved active case search in health facilities and communities, retrospective review of patients' records, rapid risk assessment, entomological survey, rapid YF vaccination coverage assessment, blood sample collection, case management and risk communication. Descriptive data analysis using percentages, proportions, frequencies were made. RESULTS: A total of 209 suspected cases were line-listed. Sixty-seven (67) confirmed in 12 LGAs with 15 deaths [Case fatality rate (CFR 22.4%)]. Among confirmed cases, median age was 24.8, (range 64 (1-64) years; Fifty-one (76.1%) were males; and only 13 (19.4%) had a history of YF vaccination. Vaccination coverage survey involving 241 children revealed low YF vaccine uptake, with 44.6% providing routine immunisation cards for sighting. Risk of YF transmission was 71.4%. Presence of Aedes with high-larval indices (House Index ≥5% and/or Breteau Index ≥20) were established in all the seven locations visited. YF reactive mass vaccination campaign was implemented. CONCLUSION: Edo State is one of the states in Nigeria with the highest burden of yellow fever. More males were affected among the confirmed. Major symptoms include fever, jaundice, weakness, and bleeding. Majority of surveillance performance indicators were above target. There is a high risk of transmission of the disease in the state. Low yellow fever vaccination coverage, and presence of yellow fever vectors (Ae.aegypti, Ae.albopictus and Ae.simpsoni) are responsible for cases in affected communities. Enhanced surveillance, improved laboratory sample management, reactive vaccination campaign, improved yellow fever case management and increased risk communication/awareness are very important mitigation strategies to be sustained in Edo state to prevent further spread and mortality from yellow fever.

Epidemiology of influenza in Nigeria: A secondary analysis of the sentinel surveillance data in Nigeria from 2010 - 2020.

BACKGROUND: Influenza is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally. Little is known of the true burden and epidemiology of influenza in Africa. Nigeria has a sentinel surveillance system for influenza virus (IFV). This study seeks to describe the epidemiological characteristics of influenza cases in Nigeria through secondary data analysis of the sentinel surveillance data from 2010 to 2020. METHODOLOGY: A retrospective secondary data analysis of data collected from patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in the four Nigeria Influenza Sentinel Surveillance sites from January 2010 to December 2020. Data was cleaned and analyzed using Microsoft Excel and Epi info 7.2 for frequencies and proportions. The results of the analysis were summarized in tables and charts. RESULTS: A total of 13,828 suspected cases of influenza were recorded at the sentinel sites during the study period. About 10.3% (1421/13,828) of these tested positive for IFV of which 1243 (87.5%) were ILI patients, 175 (12.3%) SARI patients, and 3 (0.2%) novel H1N1 patients. Males accounted for 54.2% (770/1421) of the confirmed cases. The median age of confirmed cases was 3 years (range: <1month-97 years). Children 0-4 years accounted for 69.3% (985/1421) of all cases. The predominant subtypes were B lineage not determined (32.3%), A/H1N1 pdm09 (28.8%) and A/H3 (23.0%). There were periods of sustained transmission in most years with 2011 having the highest number of cases. Overall, there were more cases around January to March and August to November. Heart disease and chronic shortness of breath were the most common co-morbidities identified among confirmed cases. CONCLUSION: Influenza remains a significant cause of respiratory illness, especially among children aged less than 4 years. Influenza cases occur all year round with irregular seasonality in Nigeria. Children less than 4 years and those with co-morbidities should be prioritized for vaccination. Vaccine composition in the country should take cognizance of the prevailing strains which are type B (lineage not determined), A/H1N1 pdm09 and A/H3.

The burden and treatment of non-communicable diseases among healthcare workers in sub-Saharan Africa: a multi-country cross-sectional study.

Introduction: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs), the leading cause of death globally, are estimated to overtake communicable diseases in sub-Sahara Africa, where healthcare workers (HCWs) play a crucial role in prevention and treatment, but are in extreme shortage, thereby increasing the burden of NCDs among this specific population. To provide evidence for policy-making, we assessed the NCD burden, associated factors and treatment among HCWs in four sub-Saharan African countries. Materials and methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study across four sub-Saharan African countries [Côte d'Ivoire (CIV), Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Madagascar (MDG), and Nigeria (NIG)] between February and December 2022. In a standardized questionnaire, sociodemographic, chronic disease and treatment data were self-reported. We estimated the prevalence of (1) at least one chronic disease, (2) hypertension, and used backward elimination logistic regression model to identify risk factors. Results: We recruited a total of 6,848 HCWs. The prevalence of at least one chronic disease ranged between 9.7% in NIG and 20.6% in MDG, the prevalence of hypertension between 5.4% in CIV and 11.3% in MDG. At most, reported treatment rates reached 36.5%. The odds of each of both outcomes increased with age (at least one chronic disease adjusted odds ratio: CIV: 1.04; DRC: 1.09; MDG: 1.06; NIG: 1.10; hypertension: CIV: 1.10; DRC: 1.31; MDG: 1.11; NIG: 1.11) and with BMI (at least one chronic disease: CIV: 1.10; DRC: 1.07; MDG: 1.06; NIG: 1.08; hypertension: CIV: 1.10; DRC: 1.66; MDG: 1.13; NIG: 1.07). Odds of both outcomes were lower among males, except in CIV. In NIG, the odds of both outcomes were higher among medical doctors and odds of hypertension were higher among those working in secondary care. In MDG, working in secondary care increased and working as auxiliary staff decreased the odds of at least one chronic disease. Conclusion: The prevalence of self-reported chronic disease varied across the four sub-Saharan countries with potentially very low treatment rates. We identified several individual (age, sex, and BMI) and occupational (profession, level of healthcare) factors that influence the odds of NCDs. These factors should be taken into account when developing interventions addressing the burden and management of NCDs among HCWs.

Field evaluation of validity and feasibility of Pan-Lassa rapid diagnostic test for Lassa fever in Abakaliki, Nigeria: a prospective diagnostic accuracy study.

BACKGROUND: Lassa fever is a viral haemorrhagic fever with few options for diagnosis and treatment; it is also under-researched with knowledge gaps on its epidemiology. A point-of-care bedside test diagnosing Lassa fever, adhering to REASSURED criteria, is not currently available but is urgently needed in west African regions with high Lassa fever burden. We aimed to assess the validity and feasibility of a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) to confirm Lassa fever in people in Nigeria. METHODS: We estimated the diagnostic performance of the ReLASV Pan-Lassa RDT (Zalgen Labs, Frederick, MD, USA) as a research-use-only test, compared to RT-PCR as a reference standard, in 217 participants at a federal tertiary hospital in Abakaliki, Nigeria. We recruited participants between Feb 17, 2022, and April 17, 2023. The RDT was performed using capillary blood at the patient bedside and using plasma at the laboratory. The performance of the test, based on REASSURED criteria, was assessed for user friendliness, rapidity and robustness, sensitivity, and specificity. FINDINGS: Participants were aged between 0 and 85 years, with a median age of 33·0 years (IQR 22·0-44·3), and 24 participants were younger than 18 years. 107 (50%) participants were women and 109 (50%) were men; one participant had missing sex data. Although the specificity of the Pan-Lassa RDT was high (>90%), sensitivity at bedside using capillary blood was estimated as 4% (95% CI 1-14) at 15 min and 10% (3-22) at 25 min, far below the target of 90%. The laboratory-based RDT using plasma showed better sensitivity (46% [32-61] at 15 min and 50% [36-64] at 25 min) but did not reach the target sensitivity. Among the 52 PCR-positive participants with Lassa fever, positive RDT results were associated with lower cycle threshold values (glycoprotein precursor [GPC] gene mean 30·3 [SD 4·3], Large [L] gene mean 32·3 [3·7] vs GPC gene mean 24·5 [3·9], L gene mean 28·0 [3·6]). Personnel conducting the bedside test procedure reported being hindered by the inconvenient use of full personal protective equipment and long waiting procedures before a result could be read. INTERPRETATION: The Pan-Lassa RDT is not currently recommended as a diagnostic or screening tool for suspected Lassa fever cases. Marked improvement in sensitivity and user friendliness is needed for the RDT to be adopted clinically. There remains an urgent need for better Lassa fever diagnostics to promote safety of in-hospital care and better disease outcomes in low-resource settings. FUNDING: Médecins Sans Frontières.

Epidemiology and psychosocial assessment of COVID-19 among workers of the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control infected with COVID-19.

Background: COVID-19 is a global health crisis. By 2021, Nigeria had 230,000 cases. As the national public health institute, NCDC leads the COVID-19 response. Due to constant contact with infected patients, agency employees are a t high-risk. Here, we describe the transmission and psychosocial effects of COVID- 19 among infected NCDC workers as a learning curve for minimizing occupational transmission among frontline public health workers in future outbreaks. Methods: We approved and enrolled all NCDC COVID-19- infected personnel from November to December 2020. We collected data using SurveyMonkey. STATA 14 analyzed the data. Results: 172 of 300 afflicted NCDC staff participated in this study. One-third were between 30 and 39; most were male (104, 60.5%). Most participants worked in the lab (30%) or surveillance (24%). Only 19% (33/172) of participants confirmed pandemic deployment. Most reported interaction with a confirmed case (112/65.1%). Most people (78, 45.3%) felt unhappy when diagnosed. Anger, worry, and low motivation also ranked high (19). The majority reported adequate financial, moral, or psychosocial assistance (26, 70.6%). Conclusions: NCDC staff had a high SARS-CoV-2 infection rate and emotional damage. We urge stricter infection control methods when sending staff for outbreaks response to prevent additional transmission, as well as ongoing psychosocial and economic assistance for afflicted workers.

Cholera past and future in Nigeria: Are the Global Task Force on Cholera Control's 2030 targets achievable?

BACKGROUND: Understanding and continually assessing the achievability of global health targets is key to reducing disease burden and mortality. The Global Task Force on Cholera Control (GTFCC) Roadmap aims to reduce cholera deaths by 90% and eliminate the disease in twenty countries by 2030. The Roadmap has three axes focusing on reporting, response and coordination. Here, we assess the achievability of the GTFCC targets in Nigeria and identify where the three axes could be strengthened to reach and exceed these goals. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using cholera surveillance data from Nigeria, cholera incidence was calculated and used to model time-varying reproduction number (R). A best fit random forest model was identified using R as the outcome variable and several environmental and social covariates were considered in the model, using random forest variable importance and correlation clustering. Future scenarios were created (based on varying degrees of socioeconomic development and emissions reductions) and used to project future cholera transmission, nationally and sub-nationally to 2070. The projections suggest that significant reductions in cholera cases could be achieved by 2030, particularly in the more developed southern states, but increases in cases remain a possibility. Meeting the 2030 target, nationally, currently looks unlikely and we propose a new 2050 target focusing on reducing regional inequities, while still advocating for cholera elimination being achieved as soon as possible. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The 2030 targets could potentially be reached by 2030 in some parts of Nigeria, but more effort is needed to reach these targets at a national level, particularly through access and incentives to cholera testing, sanitation expansion, poverty alleviation and urban planning. The results highlight the importance of and how modelling studies can be used to inform cholera policy and the potential for this to be applied in other contexts.

Risk communication during health emergencies in Nigeria: What are its challenges?

Although globalization has been advantageous in facilitating the free movement of people, goods, and services, the ease of movement of cross-border pathogens has increased the risk of international public health emergencies in recent years. Risk communication is an integral part of every country's response during public health emergencies such as the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. To effectively increase adherence to guidelines during health emergencies, it is essential to understand the impact of social, cultural, political, and environmental factors on people's behaviours and lifestyles in any given context, as well as how these factors influence people's perception of risks. During the recent response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria, the need to comprehend these influences was pronounced, and these influences ultimately shaped risk communication in Nigeria. We have identified risk communication challenges in Nigeria based on sociocultural diversity, the complexity of the health system, the impact of social media on communications, and other contextual factors surrounding multisectoral partnerships. To achieve global health security, these challenges must be addressed in resourceconstrained countries like Nigeria. In this paper, we emphasize the need to contextualize risk communication strategies in order to improve their effectiveness during health emergencies. In addition, we urge increased country commitment to a multi-hazard and multisectoral effort, deliberate investment in subnational risk communication systems, and investments in capacity building for risk communication activities.

Places Nigerians visited during COVID-19 government stay-home policy: evidence from secondary analysis of data collected during the lockdown.

Introduction: Compliance with the Government's lockdown policy is required to curtail community transmission of Covid-19 infection. The objective of this research was to identify places Nigerians visited during the lockdown to help prepare for a response towards future infectious diseases of public health importance similar to Covid-19. Methods: This was a secondary analysis of unconventional data collected using Google Forms and online social media platforms during the COVID-19 lockdown between April and June 2020 in Nigeria. Two datasets from: i) partnership for evidencebased response to COVID-19 (PERC) wave-1 and ii) College of Medicine, University of Lagos perception of and compliance with physical distancing survey (PCSH) were used. Data on places that people visited during the lockdown were extracted and compared with the sociodemographic characteristics of the respondents. Descriptive statistics were calculated for all independent variables and focused on frequencies and percentages. Chi-squared test was used to determine the significance between sociodemographic variables and places visited during the lockdown. Statistical significance was determined by P<0.05. All statistical analyses were carried out using SPSS version 22. Results: There were 1304 and 879 participants in the PERC wave-1 and PCSH datasets, respectively. The mean age of PERC wave-1 and PCSH survey respondents was 31.8 [standard deviation (SD)=8.5] and 33.1 (SD=8.3) years, respectively.In the PCSH survey, 55.9% and 44.1% of respondents lived in locations with partial and complete covid-19 lockdowns, respectively. Irrespective of the type of lockdown, the most common place visited during the lockdown was the market (shopping); reported by 73% of respondents in states with partial lockdown and by 68% of respondents in states with the complete lockdown. Visits to families and friends happened more in states with complete (16.1%) than in states with partial (8.4%) lockdowns. Conclusions: Markets (shopping) were the main places visited during the lockdown compared to visiting friends/family, places of worship, gyms, and workplaces. It is important in the future for the Government to plan how citizens can safely access markets and get other household items during lockdowns for better adherence to stay-at-home directives for future infectious disease epidemics.

Innovative, rapid, high-throughput method for drug repurposing in a pandemic-A case study of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19.

Several efforts to repurpose drugs for COVID-19 treatment have largely either failed to identify a suitable agent or agents identified did not translate to clinical use. Reasons that have been suggested to explain the failures include use of inappropriate doses, that are not clinically achievable, in the screening experiments, and the use of inappropriate pre-clinical laboratory surrogates to predict efficacy. In this study, we used an innovative algorithm, that incorporates dissemination and implementation considerations, to identify potential drugs for COVID-19 using iterative computational and wet laboratory methods. The drugs were screened at doses that are known to be achievable in humans. Furthermore, inhibition of viral induced cytopathic effect (CPE) was used as the laboratory surrogate to predict efficacy. Erythromycin, pyridoxine, folic acid and retapamulin were found to inhibit SARS-CoV-2 induced CPE in Vero cells at concentrations that are clinically achievable. Additional studies may be required to further characterize the inhibitions of CPE and the possible mechanisms.

Erythromycin, retapamulin, pyridoxine, folic acid, and ivermectin inhibit cytopathic effect, papain-like protease, and MPRO enzymes of SARS-CoV-2.

Background: Although tremendous success has been achieved in the development and deployment of effective COVID-19 vaccines, developing effective therapeutics for the treatment of those who do come down with the disease has been with limited success. To repurpose existing drugs for COVID-19, we previously showed, qualitatively, that erythromycin, retapamulin, pyridoxine, folic acid, and ivermectin inhibit SARS-COV-2-induced cytopathic effect (CPE) in Vero cells. Aim: This study aimed to quantitatively explore the inhibition of SARS-CoV-2-induced CPE by erythromycin, retapamulin, pyridoxine, folic acid, and ivermectin and to determine the effect of these drugs on SARS-CoV-2 papain-like protease and 3CL protease (MPRO) enzymes. Methods: Neutral red (3-amino-7-dimethylamino-2-methyl-phenazine hydrochloride) cell viability assay was used to quantify CPE after infecting pre-treated Vero cells with clinical SARS-Cov-2 isolates. Furthermore, SensoLyte® 520 SARS-CoV-2 papain-like protease and SensoLyte® 520 SARS-CoV-2 MPRO activity assay kits were used to evaluate the inhibitory activity of the drugs on the respective enzymes. Results: Erythromycin, retapamulin, pyridoxine, folic acid, and ivermectin dose-dependently inhibit SARS-CoV-2-induced CPE in Vero cells, with inhibitory concentration-50 (IC50) values of 3.27 µM, 4.23 µM, 9.29 µM, 3.19 µM, and 84.31 µM, respectively. Furthermore, erythromycin, retapamulin, pyridoxine, folic acid, and ivermectin dose-dependently inhibited SARS-CoV-2 papain-like protease with IC50 values of 0.94 µM, 0.88 µM, 1.14 µM, 1.07 µM, and 1.51 µM, respectively, and inhibited the main protease (MPRO) with IC50 values of 1.35 µM, 1.25 µM, 7.36 µM, 1.15 µM, and 2.44 µM, respectively. Conclusion: The IC50 for all the drugs, except ivermectin, was at the clinically achievable plasma concentration in humans, which supports a possible role for the drugs in the management of COVID-19. The lack of inhibition of CPE by ivermectin at clinical concentrations could be part of the explanation for its lack of effectiveness in clinical trials.

Predictors of Lassa fever diagnosis in suspected cases reporting to health facilities in Nigeria.

Lassa fever (LF) remains endemic in Nigeria with the country reporting the highest incidence and mortality globally. Recent national data suggests increasing incidence and expanding geographic spread. Predictors of LF case positivity in Nigeria have been sparsely studied. We thus sought to determine the sociodemographic and clinical determinants of LF positivity amongst suspected cases presenting to health facilities from 2018 to 2021. A secondary analysis of the national LF surveillance data between January 2018 and December 2021. Socio-demographic and clinical data of 20,027 suspected LF cases were analysed using frequencies and Chi-square statistics with significant p-value set at p < 0.05. The outcome variable was LF case status (positive or negative). Predictors of LF case positivity were assessed using multiple logistic regression models with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Case positivity rate (CPR) for the four years was 15.8% with higher odds of positivity among age group 40-49 years (aOR = 1.40; 95% CI 1.21-1.62), males (aOR = 1.11; 95% CI 1.03-1.20), those with formal education (aOR = 1.33; 95% CI 1.13-1.56), artisans (aOR = 1.70; 95% CI 1.28-2.27), religious leaders (aOR = 1.62; 95% CI 1.04-2.52), farmers (aOR = 1.48; 95% CI 1.21-1.81), and symptomatic individuals (aOR = 2.36; 95% CI 2.09-2.68). Being a health worker (aOR = 0.69; 95% CI 0.53-0.91), a teacher (aOR = 0.69; 95% CI 0.53-0.89) and cases reporting in the 3rd quarter (aOR = 0.79; 95% CI 0.69-0.92) had lower odds. In a sex-disaggregated analysis, female farmers had higher odds of positivity (aOR = 2.43; 95% CI 1.76-3.38; p < 0.001) than male farmers (aOR = 1.52; 95% CI 1.19-1.96; p < 0.01). Fever (aOR = 2.39; 95% CI 2.00-2.84) and gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms (aOR = 2.15; 95% CI 1.94-2.37) had the highest odds among symptoms. Combination of fever and GI symptoms (aOR = 2.15; 95% CI 1.50-3.10), fever and neurological symptoms (aOR = 6.37; 95% CI 1.49-27.16), fever and musculo-skeletal symptoms (aOR = 2.95; 95% CI 1.37-6.33), fever and cardiopulmonary symptoms (aOR = 1.81; 95% CI 1.24-2.64), and cardiopulmonary and general symptoms (aOR = 1.50; 95% CI 1.19-1.89) were also predictive. Cumulative LF CPR appears high with clearly identified predictors. Targeted interventions with heightened index of suspicion for sociodemographic categories predictive of LF in suspected cases are recommended. Ethnographic and further epidemiological studies could aid better understanding of these associations.

A prospective, multi-site, cohort study to estimate incidence of infection and disease due to Lassa fever virus in West African countries (the Enable Lassa research programme)-Study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Lassa fever (LF), a haemorrhagic illness caused by the Lassa fever virus (LASV), is endemic in West Africa and causes 5000 fatalities every year. The true prevalence and incidence rates of LF are unknown as infections are often asymptomatic, clinical presentations are varied, and surveillance systems are not robust. The aim of the Enable Lassa research programme is to estimate the incidences of LASV infection and LF disease in five West African countries. The core protocol described here harmonises key study components, such as eligibility criteria, case definitions, outcome measures, and laboratory tests, which will maximise the comparability of data for between-country analyses. METHOD: We are conducting a prospective cohort study in Benin, Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria (three sites), and Sierra Leone from 2020 to 2023, with 24 months of follow-up. Each site will assess the incidence of LASV infection, LF disease, or both. When both incidences are assessed the LASV cohort (nmin = 1000 per site) will be drawn from the LF cohort (nmin = 5000 per site). During recruitment participants will complete questionnaires on household composition, socioeconomic status, demographic characteristics, and LF history, and blood samples will be collected to determine IgG LASV serostatus. LF disease cohort participants will be contacted biweekly to identify acute febrile cases, from whom blood samples will be drawn to test for active LASV infection using RT-PCR. Symptom and treatment data will be abstracted from medical records of LF cases. LF survivors will be followed up after four months to assess sequelae, specifically sensorineural hearing loss. LASV infection cohort participants will be asked for a blood sample every six months to assess LASV serostatus (IgG and IgM). DISCUSSION: Data on LASV infection and LF disease incidence in West Africa from this research programme will determine the feasibility of future Phase IIb or III clinical trials for LF vaccine candidates.

Knowledge of Lassa fever, its prevention and control practices and their predictors among healthcare workers during an outbreak in Northern Nigeria: A multi-centre cross-sectional assessment.

BACKGROUND: The year 2020 Lassa fever (LF) outbreak had the greatest disease burden and this can place an enormous strain on the already overstretched healthcare system and can potentially increase morbidity and mortality due to infectious diseases. Therefore, having a knowledgeable healthcare workforce with appropriate skills and competencies to prevent and manage outbreaks of a neglected infectious disease such as LF in Nigeria will potentially enhance public health. Thus, this survey assessed the level of knowledge of LF and its prevention and control (PC) measures amongst the healthcare workers (HCWs) during a LF outbreak in Katsina state, Nigeria. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: During this cross-sectional survey, HCWs complete a validated 29-item questionnaire comprising 18 items on the knowledge of LF and its PC measures and an item on global self-evaluation of their LF knowledge. Psychometric properties of the questionnaire were evaluated. Chi-square and binary logistic regression analyses were conducted. Out of 435 HCWs invited, a total of 400 participated in the study (92% response rate). The majority of participants (51.8%) demonstrated inadequate LF knowledge, with 62.9% of those scoring low having a high self-perception of their LF knowledge with the global scale. This LF knowledge over-estimation was predicted by LF training status (odds ratio (OR) 2.53; 95% CI: 1.49-4.30; p = 0.001). The level of LF knowledge and its PC measures among the study participants was low (11.60±8.14, 64.4%) and predicted by participants' LF training status (OR 2.06; 95% CI: 1.19-3.57; p = 0.009), place of work (OR 1.82; 95% CI: 1.07-3.08; p = 0.03) and their designations (OR 2.40; 95% CI: 1.10-5.22; p = 0.03). CONCLUSION: The level of knowledge of LF and its PC measures among the HCWs surveyed was suboptimal and participants' LF training status, place of work and occupational category were the significant predictors. In addition, LF knowledge overestimation on a global scale was observed among a majority of HCWs and this was also predicted by LF training status. Therefore, there is a critical need for health authorities in Nigeria to prioritize continuous on-the-job training of HCWs on priority neglected tropical diseases such as Lassa fever.

The impact of social and environmental extremes on cholera time varying reproduction number in Nigeria.

Nigeria currently reports the second highest number of cholera cases in Africa, with numerous socioeconomic and environmental risk factors. Less investigated are the role of extreme events, despite recent work showing their potential importance. To address this gap, we used a machine learning approach to understand the risks and thresholds for cholera outbreaks and extreme events, taking into consideration pre-existing vulnerabilities. We estimated time varying reproductive number (R) from cholera incidence in Nigeria and used a machine learning approach to evaluate its association with extreme events (conflict, flood, drought) and pre-existing vulnerabilities (poverty, sanitation, healthcare). We then created a traffic-light system for cholera outbreak risk, using three hypothetical traffic-light scenarios (Red, Amber and Green) and used this to predict R. The system highlighted potential extreme events and socioeconomic thresholds for outbreaks to occur. We found that reducing poverty and increasing access to sanitation lessened vulnerability to increased cholera risk caused by extreme events (monthly conflicts and the Palmers Drought Severity Index). The main limitation is the underreporting of cholera globally and the potential number of cholera cases missed in the data used here. Increasing access to sanitation and decreasing poverty reduced the impact of extreme events in terms of cholera outbreak risk. The results here therefore add further evidence of the need for sustainable development for disaster prevention and mitigation and to improve health and quality of life.

Adapting public health response through lessons learnt: Nigeria's experience from Lassa fever and COVID-19.

Response to public health emergencies requires continued adaptation and innovation. The Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) is the country's public health institute with the mandate to protect the health of Nigerians. Achieving such mandate in resource-limited settings with divergent demographic characteristics of the citizens, necessitates the readiness to learn from experience and to develop policies and activities in line with lessons learnt and best practices. This practice paper describes the initiatives of the NCDC towards adapting its public health response activities by establishing learning systems across its structure. The paper informs on some of the steps taken by the Centre regarding learning from the Lassa fever outbreak and the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria. It concludes that commitment and investments are key requirements for learning and adapting public health responses to achieve success with combating infectious diseases.

Implementing an emergency risk communication campaign in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria: lessons learned.

At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the WHO recommended the prioritisation of risk communication and community engagement as part of response activities in countries. This was related to the increasing spread of misinformation and its associated risks, as well as the need to promote non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in the absence of an approved vaccine for disease prevention. The Nigeria Centre for Disease Control, the national public health institute with the mandate to prevent and detect infectious disease outbreaks, constituted a multidisciplinary Emergency Operations Centre (EOC), which included NCDC staff and partners to respond to the COVID-19 outbreak. Risk communication, which also comprised crisis communication, was a pillar in the EOC. As the number of cases in Nigeria increased, the increasing spread of misinformation and poor compliance to NPIs inspired the development of the #TakeResponsibility campaign, to encourage individual and collective behavioural change and to foster a shared ownership of the COVID-19 outbreak response. Mass media, social media platforms and community engagement measures were used as part of the campaign. This contributed to the spread of messages using diverse platforms and voices, collaboration with community leaders to contextualise communication materials and empowerment of communication officers at local levels through training, for increased impact. Despite the challenges faced in implementing the campaign, lessons such as the use of data and a participatory approach in developing communications campaigns for disease outbreaks were documented. This paper describes how a unique communication campaign was developed to support the response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

An assessment of infection prevention and control preparedness of healthcare facilities in Nigeria in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic (February-May 2020).

Background: Infection prevention and control (IPC) activities play a large role in preventing the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in healthcare settings. This study describes the state of IPC preparedness within health facilities in Nigeria during the early phase of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Methods: We carried out a cross sectional study of health facilities across Nigeria using a COVID-19 IPC checklist adapted from the U.S Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The IPC aspects assessed were the existence of IPC committee and teams with terms of reference and workplans, IPC training, availability of personal protective equipment and having systems in place for screening, isolation and notification of COVID-19 patients. Existence of the assessed aspects was regarded as preparedness in that aspect. Results: In total, 461 health facilities comprising, 350 (75.9%) private and 111 (24.1%) public health facilities participated. Only 19 (4.1%) health facilities were COVID-19 treatment centres with 68% of these being public health facilities. Public health facilities were better prepared in the areas of IPC programme with 69.7% of them having an IPC focal point versus 32.3% of private facilities. More public facilities (59.6%) had an IPC workplan versus 26.8% of private facilities. Neither the public nor the private facilities were adequately prepared for triaging, screening, and notifying suspected cases, as well as having trained staff and equipment to implement triaging. Conclusions: The results highlight the need for government, organisations and policymakers to establish conducive IPC structures to reduce the risk of COVID-19 transmission in healthcare settings.

Baseline study for improving diagnostic stewardship at secondary health care facilities in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Blood culture diagnostics are critical tools for sepsis management and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) surveillance. A baseline study was conducted to assess reported sepsis case finding, blood culture diagnostics, antimicrobial susceptibility testing (AST) and antimicrobial use at secondary health care facilities to inform the development of diagnostic stewardship improvement strategies in Nigeria. METHODS: A cross-sectional online survey was conducted among 25 public secondary health care facilities in Abuja, Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and Lagos State in Nigeria to evaluate the capacity for pathogen identification and AST. Data were then prospectively extracted on all patients with reported suspected sepsis from electronic medical records from selected departments at two facilities in the Federal Capital Territory from October 2020 to May 2021 to further assess practices concerning sepsis case-finding, clinical examination findings, samples requested, and laboratory test results. Data were descriptively analysed, and a multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine factors associated with blood culture requests. RESULTS: In the online survey, 32% (8/25) of facilities reported performing blood cultures. Only one had access to a clinical microbiologist, and 28% (7/25) and 4% (1/25) used standard bacterial organisms for quality control of media and quality control strains for AST, respectively. At the two facilities where data abstraction was performed, the incidence of suspected sepsis cases reported was 7.1% (2924/41066). A majority of these patients came from the paediatrics department and were outpatients, and the median age was two years. Most did not have vital signs and major foci of infection documented. Blood cultures were only requested for 2.7% (80/2924) of patients, of which twelve were positive for bacteria, mainly Staphylococcus aureus. No clinical breakpoints were used for AST. Inpatients (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 7.5, 95% CI: 4.6-12.3) and patients from the urban health care facility (aOR:16.9, 95% CI: 8.1-41.4) were significantly more likely to have a blood culture requested. CONCLUSION: Low blood culture utilisation remains a key challenge in Nigeria. This has implications for patient care, AMR surveillance and antibiotic use. Diagnostic stewardship strategies should focus on improving access to clinical microbiology expertise, practical guidance on sepsis case finding and improving blood culture utilisation and diagnostics.

Epidemiological trends of Lassa fever in Nigeria, 2018-2021.

BACKGROUND: Lassa fever is a viral haemorrhagic fever endemic in Nigeria. Improved surveillance and testing capacity have revealed in an increased number of reported cases and apparent geographic spread of Lassa fever in Nigeria. We described the recent four-year trend of Lassa fever in Nigeria to improve understanding of its epidemiology and inform the design of appropriate interventions. METHODS: We analysed the national surveillance data on Lassa fever maintained by the Nigeria Centre for Diseases Control (NCDC) and described trends, sociodemographic, geographic distribution, and clinical outcomes. We compared cases, positivity, and clinical outcomes in the period January 2018 to December 2021. RESULTS: We found Lassa fever to be reported throughout the year with more than half the cases reported within the first quarter of the year, a recent increase in numbers and geographic spread of the virus, and male and adult (>18 years) preponderance. Case fatality rates were worse in males, the under-five and elderly, during off-peak periods, and among low reporting states. CONCLUSION: Lassa fever is endemic in Nigeria with a recent increase in numbers and geographical distribution. Sustaining improved surveillance, enhanced laboratory diagnosis and improved case management capacity during off-peak periods should remain a priority. Attention should be paid to the very young and elderly during outbreaks. Further research efforts should identify and address specific factors that determine poor clinical outcomes.

Public risk perception and behaviours towards COVID-19 during the first and second waves in Nigeria: a secondary data analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To describe changes in public risk perception and risky behaviours during the first wave (W1) and second wave (W2) of COVID-19 in Nigeria, associated factors and observed trend of the outbreak. DESIGN: A secondary data analysis of cross-sectional telephone-based surveys conducted during the W1 and W2 of COVID-19 in Nigeria. SETTING: Nigeria. PARTICIPANTS: Data from participants randomly selected from all states in Nigeria. PRIMARY OUTCOME: Risk perception for COVID-19 infection categorised as risk perceived and risk not perceived. SECONDARY OUTCOME: Compliance to public health and social measures (PHSMs) categorised as compliant; non-compliant and indifferent. ANALYSIS: Comparison of frequencies during both waves using χ2 statistic to test for associations. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses helped estimate the unadjusted and adjusted odds of risk perception of oneself contracting COVID-19. Level of statistical significance was set at p<0.05. RESULTS: Triangulated datasets had a total of 6401 respondents, majority (49.5%) aged 25-35 years. Overall, 55.4% and 56.1% perceived themselves to be at risk of COVID-19 infection during the W1 and W2, respectively. A higher proportion of males than females perceived themselves to be at risk during the W1 (60.3% vs 50.3%, p<0.001) and the W2 (58.3% vs 52.6%, p<0.05). Residing in the south-west was associated with not perceiving oneself at risk of COVID-19 infection (W1-AOdds Ratio (AOR) 0.28; 95% CI 0.20 to 0.40; W2-AOR 0.71; 95% CI 0.52 to 0.97). There was significant increase in non-compliance to PHSMs in the W2 compared with W1. Non-compliance rate was higher among individuals who perceived themselves not to be at risk of getting infected (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Risk communication and community engagement geared towards increasing risk perception of COVID-19 should be implemented, particularly among the identified population groups. This could increase adherence to PHSMs and potentially reduce the burden of COVID-19 in Nigeria.