What's next? Judging sequences of binary events.

The authors review research on judgments of random and nonrandom sequences involving binary events with a focus on studies documenting gambler's fallacy and hot hand beliefs. The domains of judgment include random devices, births, lotteries, sports performances, stock prices, and others. After discussing existing theories of sequence judgments, the authors conclude that in many everyday settings people have naive complex models of the mechanisms they believe generate observed events, and they rely on these models for explanations, predictions, and other inferences about event sequences. The authors next introduce an explanation-based, mental models framework for describing people's beliefs about binary sequences, based on 4 perceived characteristics of the sequence generator: randomness, intentionality, control, and goal complexity. Furthermore, they propose a Markov process framework as a useful theoretical notation for the description of mental models and for the analysis of actual event sequences.

Priming addition facts with semantic relations.

Results from 2 relational-priming experiments suggest the existence of an automatic analogical coordination between semantic and arithmetic relations. Word pairs denoting object sets served as primes in a task that elicits "obligatory" activation of addition facts (5 + 3 activates 8; J. LeFevre, J. Bisanz, & L. Mrkonjic, 1988). Semantic relations between the priming words were either aligned or misaligned with the structure of addition (M. Bassok, V. M. Chase, & S. A. Martin, 1998). Obligatory activation of addition facts occurred when the digits were primed by categorically related words (tulips-daisies), which are aligned with addition, but did not occur when the digits were primed by unrelated words (hens-radios, Experiment 1) or by functionally related words (records-songs, Experiment 2), which are misaligned with addition. These findings lend support to the viability of automatic analogical priming (B. A. Spellman, K. J. Holyoak, & R. G. Morrison, 2001) and highlight the relevance of arithmetic applications to theoretical accounts of mental arithmetic.