If You Catch the Ball, We Win the Game. If You Drop It, We Lose.

As a transplant surgeon at California Pacific Medical Center in San Francisco, I cannot forget those cases where I faced forks in the road and had to decide whether the right direction lay in the well-charted direction of objective metrics or immeasurable feelings of intuition. I carry those cases with me still.

Excellent Outcomes of Liver Transplantation Following Down-Staging of Hepatocellular Carcinoma to Within Milan Criteria: A Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Single-center studies have reported excellent outcomes of patients who underwent liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after successful down-staging (reduction of tumor burden with local-regional therapy), but multi-center studies are lacking. We performed a multi-center study, applying a uniform down-staging protocol, to assess outcomes of liver transplantation and performed an intention to treat analysis. We analyzed factors associated with treatment failure, defined as dropout from the liver transplant waitlist due to tumor progression, liver-related death without transplant, or recurrence of HCC after transplant. METHODS: We performed a retrospective multi-center study of 187 consecutive adults with HCC enrolled in the down-staging protocol at 3 liver transplant centers in California (Region 5), from 2002 through 2012. All patients underwent abdominal imaging 1 month after each local-regional treatment, and at a minimum of once every 3 months. The primary outcome was probability of treatment failure. RESULTS: Liver transplantation was performed after successful down staging in 109 patients (58%). Tumor explant from only 1 patient had poorly differentiated grade and 7 (6.4%) had vascular invasion. Based on Kaplan-Meier analysis of data collected a median 4.3 years after liver transplantation, 95% of patients would survive 1 year and 80% of patients would survive 5 years; probabilities of recurrence-free survival were 95% and 87%, respectively. There were no center-specific differences in survival in the intention to treat analysis (P = .62), in survival after liver transplantation (P = .95), or in recurrence of HCC (P = .99). Patients were removed from the liver transplantation waitlist due to tumor progression in (n = 59; 32%) or liver-related death without liver transplantation (n = 9; 5%). Factors associated with treatment failure, based on multivariable analysis, were pre-treatment levels of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) >1000 ng/mL (hazard ratio, 3.3; P < .001) and Child Pugh class B or C (hazard ratio, 1.6; P < .001). The probability of treatment failure at 2 years from the first down-staging procedure was 100% for patients with levels of AFP >1000 and Child Pugh class B or C vs 29.4% for patients with neither risk factor (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: In a retrospective, multi-center study on HCC down staging under a uniform protocol, we found patients to have excellent outcomes following liver transplantation, with no center-specific effects. Our findings support application of the down-staging protocol on a broader scale. Patients with Child Pugh class B or C and AFP >1000 are unlikely to benefit from down staging.

Features of Patients With Severe Hepatitis Due to Mushroom Poisoning and Factors Associated With Outcome.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Acute liver failure after ingestion of toxic mushrooms is a significant medical problem. Most exposures to toxic mushrooms produce no symptoms or only mild gastroenteritis, but some lead to severe hepatic necrosis and fulminant hepatic failure requiring liver transplantation. We aimed to assess mortality from mushroom poisoning and identify variables associated with survival and liver transplantation. METHODS: We collected information from 27 patients (13 male; median age, 47 years) admitted to the emergency department within 24 hours of ingesting wild mushrooms. They developed severe liver injury (serum levels of transaminases greater than 400 IU/L) and were treated with activated charcoal and N-acetylcysteine at a tertiary medical center in San Francisco, California from January 1997 through December 2014. Viral hepatitis, autoimmune liver disease, acetaminophen, salicylate toxicity, and chronic liver diseases were ruled out for all patients. We analyzed patient demographics, time since ingestion, presenting symptoms, laboratory values, and therapies administered. A good outcome was defined as survival without need for liver transplant. A poor outcome was defined as death or liver transplant. Positive predictive values were calculated, and the χ2 test was used to analyze dichotomous variables. RESULTS: Liver injury was attributed to ingestion of Amanita phalloides in 24 patients and Amanita ocreata in 3 patients. Twenty-four of the patients ingested mushrooms with meals and 3 patients for hallucinogenic purpose. At 24-48 hours after ingestion, all patients had serum levels of alanine aminotransferase ranging from 554 to 4546 IU/L (median, 2185 IU/L). Acute renal impairment developed in 5 patients. Twenty-three patients survived without liver transplantation, and 4 patients had poor outcomes (1 woman underwent liver transplantation on day 20 after mushroom ingestion, and 3 women died of hepatic failure). Of the 23 patients with peak levels of total bilirubin of 2 mg/dL or more during hospitalization, only 4 had a poor outcome. Peak serum level of aspartate aminotransferase less than 4000 IU/L, peak international normalized ratio less than 2, and a value of serum factor V greater than 30% identified patients with good outcomes with 100% positive predictive value; if these peak values were used as a cutoff, 10 of 27 patients (37%), 7 of 27 patients (26%), and 6 of 12 patients (50%), respectively, could have avoided transfer to a transplant center. CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of 27 patients with hepatocellular damage due to mushroom (Amanita) poisoning and peak levels of total bilirubin greater than 2 mg/dL, the probability of liver transplantation or death is 17%, fulfilling Hy's law. Patients with peak levels of aspartate aminotransferase less than 4000 IU/L can be monitored in a local hospital, whereas patients with higher levels should be transferred to liver transplant centers. Women and older patients were more likely to have a poor outcome than men and younger patients.

United Network for Organ Sharing regional variations in appeal denial rates with non-standard Model for End-Stage Liver Disease/Pediatric End-Stage Liver Disease exceptions: support for a national review board.

Although it has been generally recognized that there are inconsistencies among Regional Review Boards in the assignment of points for model for end-stage liver disease (MELD)/pediatric end-stage liver disease (PELD) exception patients with resulting considerable variation in appeal denial rates, data to actually prove this have been limited. We reviewed 6533 MELD/PELD exception applications submitted between 2005 and 2008, calculated the variation in approval/denial rates, and followed these cases through mid-2013 to assess the effects on patient outcomes. We found highly significant regional variations in denial rates for appeals by exception patients and in transplantation rates. The odds of transplant for patients whose appeals are approved is 2.45 times that of patients not approved; that this effect does not vary by region suggests that the variation in transplant rates is driven, at least in part, by the variation in appeal denial rates. Health deterioration or death accounts for more than two-thirds of wait list removals among patients removed for reasons other than transplant. Our findings add to the weight of evidence that a national review board that uses current clinical expertise, peer review literature, and data to consistently assign priority could reduce regional inequities and move toward equitable allocation of organs and compliance with the United States Department of Health & Human Services Final Rule.

KIR genotypic diversity can track ancestries in heterogeneous populations: a potential confounder for disease association studies.

Killer cell immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIR) are encoded by highly polymorphic genes that regulate the activation of natural killer (NK) cells and other lymphocyte subsets and likely play key roles in innate and adaptive immunity. Association studies increasingly implicate KIR in disease predisposition and outcome but could be confounded by unknown KIR genetic structure in heterogeneous populations. To examine this, we characterized the diversity of 16 KIR genes in 712 Northern Californians (NC) stratified by self-assigned ethnicities and compared the profiles of KIR polymorphism with other US and global populations using a reference database. Sixty-eight distinct KIR genotypes were characterized: 58 in 457 Caucasians (NCC), 17 in 47 African Americans (NCAA), 21 in 80 Asians (NCA), 20 in 74 Hispanics (NCH), and 18 in 54 "other" ethnicities (NCO). KIR genotype patterns and frequencies in the 4 defined ethnicities were compared with each other and with 34 global populations by phylogenetic analysis. Although there were no population-specific genotypes, the KIR genotype frequency patterns faithfully traced the ancestry of NCC, NCAA, and NCA but not of NCH whose ancestries are known to be more heterogeneous. KIR genotype frequencies can therefore track ethnic ancestries in modern urban populations. Our data emphasize the importance of selecting ethnically matched controls in KIR-based studies to avert spurious associations.

Conventional TACE and drug-eluting bead TACE as locoregional therapy before orthotopic liver transplantation: comparison of explant pathologic response.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is responsible for significant morbidity and mortality worldwide. Despite its increasing incidence, significant progress has been made in the clinical management of HCC. Transarterial chemoembolization (cTACE) has been shown to improve survival in patients with unresectable HCC; it has also been successfully used as bridging therapy before orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) in efforts to delay tumor growth or to downstage HCC. TACE with drug-eluting beads (DEB-TACE), a novel drug delivery system that produces a slow and sustained release of chemotherapeutic agent, has recently been shown to have similar efficacy to conventional TACE (cTACE); it also exhibits fewer adverse effects resulting from reduced systemic drug concentrations. To date, the pathologic response rate to cTACE compared with DEB-TACE in patients undergoing OLT has not been well described. METHODS: A total of 111 consecutive patients with HCC who underwent cTACE (n=76) or DEB-TACE (n=35) before OLT at a single center between January 2005 and December 2010 were evaluated. RESULTS: Complete necrosis was achieved in 50.9% and 57.1% of cTACE and DEB-TACE patients, respectively; at least 50% necrosis was evident in approximately three fourths of patients in both groups. Rates of necrosis and tumor recurrence did not differ between groups. Dropout from the transplant list was equal in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: Either modality is an acceptable treatment to achieve tumor control for patients awaiting OLT and can be expected to result in excellent necrosis rates in the majority of patients.

Recovery from severe hepatitis caused by mushroom poisoning without liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Toxic mushroom poisoning leads to a variety of clinical outcomes ranging from self-limited gastrointestinal symptoms to fulminant hepatic failure requiring orthotopic liver transplantation. We reviewed the outcomes of patients with severe acute hepatitis secondary to mushroom poisoning, treated with contemporary modalities. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed patients admitted to our institution over a 5-year period with elevated transaminase levels (>1000 IU/L) attributed to recent mushroom ingestion. The patients' clinical course, laboratory data, and treatment regimen were recorded and analyzed. RESULTS: Eight patients who presented with severe hepatitis after mushroom ingestion qualified for analysis. The mean peak serum levels were: aspartate transaminase 5488 IU/L, alanine transaminase 7618 IU/L, and total bilirubin 10.5 mg/dL. The mean peak prothrombin time was 31 seconds. One patient developed acute renal failure requiring hemodialysis. Three patients developed encephalopathy ranging from grade I to III. All 8 patients survived without significant morbidity or need for liver transplantation. Subgroup analysis revealed that older patients spent more days in the intensive care unit and subsequently had longer hospital stays. The older group also had a trend toward more severe laboratory abnormalities. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with severe hepatitis from mushroom poisoning are thought to have a poor prognosis and frequently need liver transplantation for survival. We suggest that with early and aggressive multidisciplinary care, such patients have improved outcomes and may avoid liver transplantation.