Radionuclides in fruit systems: model-model intercomparison study.

Modeling is widely used to predict radionuclide distribution following accidental radionuclide releases. Modeling is crucial in emergency response planning and risk communication, and understanding model uncertainty is important not only in conducting analysis consistent with current regulatory guidance, but also in gaining stakeholder and decision-maker trust in the process and confidence in the results. However, while methods for dealing with parameter uncertainty are fairly well developed, an adequate representation of uncertainties associated with models remains rare. This paper addresses uncertainty about a model's structure (i.e., the relevance of simplifying assumptions and mathematical equations) that is seldom addressed in practical applications of environmental modeling. The use of several alternative models to derive a range of model outputs or risks is probably the only available technique to assess consistency in model prediction. Since each independent model requires significant resources for development and calibration, multiple models are not generally applied to the same problem. This study uses results from one such model intercomparison conducted by the Fruits Working Group, which was created under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) BIOMASS (BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment) Program. Model-model intercomparisons presented in this study were conducted by the working group for two different scenarios (acute or continuous deposition), one radionuclide ((137)Cs), and three fruit-bearing crops (strawberries, apples, and blackcurrants). The differences between models were as great as five orders of magnitude for short-term predictions following acute radionuclide deposition. For long-term predictions and for the continuous deposition scenario, the differences between models were about two orders of magnitude. The difference between strawberry, apple, and blackcurrant contamination predicted by one model is far less than the difference in prediction of contamination for a single plant species given by different models. This study illustrates the importance of problem formulation and implementation of an analytic-deliberative process in risk characterization.

Radionuclides in fruit systems: model prediction-experimental data intercomparison study.

This paper presents results from an international exercise undertaken to test model predictions against an independent data set for the transfer of radioactivity to fruit. Six models with various structures and complexity participated in this exercise. Predictions from these models were compared against independent experimental measurements on the transfer of 134Cs and 85Sr via leaf-to-fruit and soil-to-fruit in strawberry plants after an acute release. Foliar contamination was carried out through wet deposition on the plant at two different growing stages, anthesis and ripening, while soil contamination was effected at anthesis only. In the case of foliar contamination, predicted values are within the same order of magnitude as the measured values for both radionuclides, while in the case of soil contamination models tend to under-predict by up to three orders of magnitude for 134Cs, while differences for 85Sr are lower. Performance of models against experimental data is discussed together with the lessons learned from this exercise.

Modelling and experimental studies on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit.

Although fruit is an important component of the diet, the extent to which it contributes to radiological exposure remains unclear, partially as a consequence of uncertainties in models and data used to assess transfer of radionuclides in the food chain. A Fruits Working Group operated as part of the IAEA BIOMASS (BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment) programme from 1997 to 2000, with the aim of improving the robustness of the models that are used for radiological assessment. The Group completed a number of modelling and experimental activities including: (i) a review of experimental, field and modelling information on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit; (ii) discussion of recently completed or ongoing experimental studies; (iii) development of a database on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit; (iv) development of a conceptual model for fruit and (v) two model intercomparison studies and a model validation study. The Group achieved significant advances in understanding the processes involved in transfer of radionuclides to fruit. The work demonstrated that further experimental and modelling studies are required to ensure that the current generation of models can be applied to a wide range of scenarios.

Model testing using data on 137Cs from Chernobyl fallout in the Iput River catchment area of Russia.

Data collected for 10 years following the Chernobyl accident in 1986 have provided a unique opportunity to test the reliability of computer models for contamination of terrestrial and aquatic environments. The Iput River scenario was used by the Dose Reconstruction Working Group of the BIOMASS (Biosphere Modelling and Assessment Methods) programme. The test area was one of the most highly contaminated areas in Russia following the accident, with an average contamination density of 137Cs of 800,000 Bq m-2 and localized contamination up to 1,500,000 Bq m-2, and a variety of countermeasures that were implemented in the test area had to be considered in the modelling exercise. Difficulties encountered during the exercise included averaging of data to account for uneven contamination of the test area, simulating the downward migration and changes in bioavailability of 137Cs in soil, and modelling the effectiveness of countermeasures. The accuracy of model predictions is dependent at least in part on the experience and judgment of the participant in interpretation of input information, selection of parameter values, and treatment of uncertainties.

Cesium-134 and strontium-85 in strawberry plants following wet aerial deposition.

The understanding of the processes that control the behavior of radionuclides in crops can support policymakers to take actions to protect the environment and safeguard human health. Data concerning the behavior of radionuclides in fruits are limited. Strawberry (Fragaria x ananassa Duchesne) plants were contaminated on the aboveground part by sprinkling an aqueous solution of 134Cs and 85Sr at three growing stages: predormancy, anthesis, and beginning of ripening. Intercepted activity was more affected by the posture and physical orientation of leaves rather than by leaf area or biomass. Fruit interception ranges from 0.2 to 1.2% of the sprinkled activity. Translocation coefficients from leaf to fruit are on the order of 10(-4) for 134Cs and 10(-5) for 85Sr. Translocation reaches its highest intensity between anthesis and ripening. If deposition occurs when plants are bearing fruits, the fruit activity will be affected by the activity initially deposited on the fruit surfaces. This is important for 85Sr as it is not translocated in the phloem. The loss of the dead leaves at the resumption of growth causes high plant decontamination, but a fraction of both radionuclides remains in the storage organs, roots, and shoots, which is retranslocated to fruits in the following spring. The values of the environmental half-time, t(w), after deposition at predormancy are 114 d for 134Cs and 109 d for 85Sr. Cesium-134 tends to be allocated to fruits, while 85Sr remains in leaves and crowns. Translocation of radionuclides to roots results in soil contamination.

A model testing study for the transfer of radioactivity to fruit.

This paper compares predictions of the foodchain model SPADE with experimental data for the transfer of (134)Cs and (85)Sr to strawberry plants following acute foliar and soil contamination. The transfer pathways considered in this exercise included direct deposition to fruit, leaf-to-fruit, soil-to-leaf and soil-to-fruit transfers. Following foliar contamination, the difference between predicted and measured radionuclide activity values varied between a factor of 0.5-10 for fruit and 4.5-7 for leaf. Following soil contamination, the difference between predicted and measured values varied between a factor of 3-74 for fruit and 32-44 for leaf. In all cases the difference between measured and predicted values was smaller for (85)Sr than (134)Cs. Measured and predicted activities were higher for leaf than fruit. Both measured and predicted (134)Cs concentrations in fruit and leaf are higher when deposition occurs at ripening than at anthesis. These results confirm the need for more data on fruit, even for Cs and Sr, to support models in predicting the transfer of radionuclides to fruit crops. Ongoing research projects funded by the UK Food Standards Agency aim to provide some data on radionuclide transfer to herbaceous, shrub and tree fruits, which will help improve radiological assessment models in order to provide better protection for consumers.

Transfer of radioactivity to fruit: significant radionuclides and speciation.

One of the roles of the BIOMASS Theme 3 Fruit Working Group was to identify significant radionuclides to support its work programme. This paper provides a short review of radionuclide emissions to atmosphere together with comments on their relative dosimetric impacts to identify those radionuclides most relevant to the Fruit Working Group. Speciation of the identified radionuclides is also discussed to identify the most likely chemical forms to which fruits might be exposed. It is noted that no information currently exists on radionuclide speciation in regard to the uptake and retention of radionuclides in fruit crops.

Assessment of prospective foodchain doses from radioactive discharges from BNFL Sellafield.

This paper presents the method used by the UK Food Standards Agency (FSA) to assess the potential impact of proposed radioactive discharges from the Sellafield nuclear site on food and determine their acceptability. It explains aspects of a cautious method that has been adopted to reflect the UK government policy and uncertainties related to people's habits with regard to food production and consumption. Two types of ingestion doses are considered in this method: 'possible' and 'probable' doses. The method is specifically applied to Sellafield discharge limits and calculated possible and probable ingestion doses are presented and discussed. Estimated critical group ingestion doses are below the dose limit and constraint set for members of the public. The method may be subject to future amendments to take account of changes in government policy and the outcome of a recent Consultative Exercise on Dose Assessments carried out by FSA. Uncertainties inherent in dose assessments are discussed and quantified wherever possible.