Thromboembolic and bleeding outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation and valvular heart disease: A descriptive nationwide cohort study.

AIMS: The risks of thromboembolism and bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and valvular heart disease (VHD) are sparsely described. We described the risk of events in non-anticoagulated and anticoagulated patients with AF and VHD according to the evaluated heart valves, rheumatic or artificial valve classification (EHRA classification), EHRA Type 1 and Type 2 VHD, and within subgroups of EHRA Type 1 and Type 2 VHD. METHODS AND RESULTS: Cohort study of AF patients with coexisting VHD, identified in nationwide Danish registries from 2000 to 2018. Risk of thromboembolism and bleeding after 1 year of follow-up were calculated in each group. We identified 28 770 incident AF patients with VHD. Not surprisingly, we observed the highest risks of thromboembolism in the non-anticoagulated AF patients with EHRA Type 1 and Type 2 VHD (4.9% vs 2.6% and 3.2% vs 1.9%) and the highest risks of bleeding in the anticoagulated AF patients with EHRA Type 1 and Type 2 VHD (6.6% vs 4.3% and 6.1% vs 4.9%). However, within the subgroups of AF patients with EHRA Type 1 and Type 2 VHD, we observed a large proportion of non-anticoagulated patients (32.9%-49.2%), despite a CHA2 DS2 -VASc score of 2≤ in the majority of these patients (81.9%-95.6%). CONCLUSIONS: When using data reflecting contemporary clinical practice, we observed markedly different risks of thromboembolism and bleeding in EHRA Type 1 and Type 2 VHD. Additionally, we observed a potential underuse of oral anticoagulation within the subgroups of AF patients with EHRA Type 1 and Type 2 VHD, underlining need for further attention on this patient group.

The Khorana score and venous and arterial thrombosis in patients with cancer treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors: A Danish cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Thrombosis is common among patients with cancer. Primary thromboprophylaxis guided by the Khorana score is endorsed by guidelines but recommendations rely mainly on data from patients treated with chemotherapy. OBJECTIVES: To explore if the Khorana score could risk stratify patients with cancer treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors according to risk of venous and arterial thrombosis. PATIENTS/METHODS: The study population and Khorana score were defined using administrative Danish health registries. The primary outcome was 6-month risk of venous thromboembolism after initiation of checkpoint inhibitor treatment. Secondary outcomes were arterial thrombosis and any thromboembolic event. Death was considered a competing risk event. RESULTS: Among 3946 patients with cancer initiating checkpoint inhibitor treatment without other indications for anticoagulation, the overall 6-month incidence of venous thromboembolism was 2.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.1-3.1). Risks were 2.1% (95% CI: 1.5-3.0), 2.6% (95% CI: 2.0-3.4), and 3.7% (95% CI: 2.1-5.9) in low (score 0), intermediate (score 1-2), and high risk (score ≥3) Khorana categories, respectively. Among patients eligible for primary thromboprophylaxis according to guidelines (Khorana score ≥2), risk of venous thromboembolism was 4.1% (95% CI: 3.1-5.4). Higher Khorana risk category was also associated with higher 6-month risk of both arterial thrombosis and any thromboembolic events. CONCLUSIONS: The Khorana score was able to risk stratify patients with cancer treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors according to 6-month risk of thromboembolic events. Risks of venous thromboembolism were lower than in randomized thromboprophylaxis trials, thus questioning the absolute benefit of routine primary thromboprophylaxis in an unselected population of patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors.

Association of Cycling With All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Among Persons With Diabetes: The European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Study.

Importance: Premature death from all causes and cardiovascular disease (CVD) causes is higher among persons with diabetes. Objective: To investigate the association between time spent cycling and all-cause and CVD mortality among persons with diabetes, as well as to evaluate the association between change in time spent cycling and risk of all-cause and CVD mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study included 7459 adults with diabetes from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Questionnaires regarding medical history, sociodemographic, and lifestyle information were administered in 10 Western European countries from 1992 through 2000 (baseline examination) and at a second examination 5 years after baseline. A total of 5423 participants with diabetes completed both examinations. The final updated primary analysis was conducted on November 13, 2020. Exposures: The primary exposure was self-reported time spent cycling per week at the baseline examination. The secondary exposure was change in cycling status from baseline to the second examination. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary and secondary outcomes were all-cause and CVD mortality, respectively, adjusted for other physical activity modalities, diabetes duration, and sociodemographic and lifestyle factors. Results: Of the 7459 adults with diabetes included in the analysis, the mean (SD) age was 55.9 (7.7) years, and 3924 (52.6%) were female. During 110 944 person-years of follow-up, 1673 deaths from all causes were registered. Compared with the reference group of people who reported no cycling at baseline (0 min/wk), the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for all-cause mortality were 0.78 (95% CI, 0.61-0.99), 0.76 (95% CI, 0.65-0.88), 0.68 (95% CI, 0.57-0.82), and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.63-0.91) for cycling 1 to 59, 60 to 149, 150 to 299, and 300 or more min/wk, respectively. In an analysis of change in time spent cycling with 57 802 person-years of follow-up, a total of 975 deaths from all causes were recorded. Compared with people who reported no cycling at both examinations, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for all-cause mortality were 0.90 (95% CI, 0.71-1.14) in those who cycled and then stopped, 0.65 (95% CI, 0.46-0.92) in initial noncyclists who started cycling, and 0.65 (95% CI, 0.53-0.80) for people who reported cycling at both examinations. Similar results were observed for CVD mortality. Conclusion and Relevance: In this cohort study, cycling was associated with lower all-cause and CVD mortality risk among people with diabetes independent of practicing other types of physical activity. Participants who took up cycling between the baseline and second examination had a considerably lower risk of both all-cause and CVD mortality compared with consistent noncyclists.

Type 1 versus type 2 diabetes and thromboembolic risk in patients with atrial fibrillation: A Danish nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation is a common cause of stroke, and diabetes increases stroke risk. Stroke risk may vary depending on the type of diabetes. We investigated whether type 1 and type 2 diabetes are associated with different risks of thromboembolism among patients with atrial fibrillation. METHODS: We used data from Danish nationwide registries to identify patients with a prior diagnosis of diabetes and an incident nonvalvular atrial fibrillation diagnosis in the period of January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2015. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for the outcome thromboembolism. RESULTS: The study population included 10,058 patients with a prior diagnosis of diabetes and an incident diagnosis of atrial fibrillation. At three-year follow-up, type 2 diabetes was not associated with a higher risk of thromboembolism compared to type 1 diabetes, with an adjusted HR of 1.15 (95% CI: 0.91-1.44). In an age-stratified analysis, patients aged below 65 years of age had an adjusted HR of 1.97 (95% CI: 1.07-3.61), whereas patients aged 65-74 years or ≥75 years had adjusted HRs of 0.99 (95% CI: 0.67-1.46) and 1.10 (95% CI: 0.80-1.51), respectively. CONCLUSION: We found no overall credible association between the type of diabetes and risk of thromboembolism in this cohort of non-anticoagulated patients with incident atrial fibrillation. Nonetheless, the subset of patients aged below 65 years of age displayed a higher risk of thromboembolism among patients with type 2 diabetes as compared to patients with type 1 diabetes.

Non-invasive risk scores for prediction of type 2 diabetes (EPIC-InterAct): a validation of existing models.

BACKGROUND: The comparative performance of existing models for prediction of type 2 diabetes across populations has not been investigated. We validated existing non-laboratory-based models and assessed variability in predictive performance in European populations. METHODS: We selected non-invasive prediction models for incident diabetes developed in populations of European ancestry and validated them using data from the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort sample (27,779 individuals from eight European countries, of whom 12,403 had incident diabetes). We assessed model discrimination and calibration for the first 10 years of follow-up. The models were first adjusted to the country-specific diabetes incidence. We did the main analyses for each country and for subgroups defined by sex, age (<60 years vs ≥60 years), BMI (<25 kg/m(2)vs ≥25 kg/m(2)), and waist circumference (men <102 cm vs ≥102 cm; women <88 cm vs ≥88 cm). FINDINGS: We validated 12 prediction models. Discrimination was acceptable to good: C statistics ranged from 0·76 (95% CI 0·72-0·80) to 0·81 (0·77-0·84) overall, from 0·73 (0·70-0·76) to 0·79 (0·74-0·83) in men, and from 0·78 (0·74-0·82) to 0·81 (0·80-0·82) in women. We noted significant heterogeneity in discrimination (pheterogeneity<0·0001) in all but one model. Calibration was good for most models, and consistent across countries (pheterogeneity>0·05) except for three models. However, two models overestimated risk, DPoRT by 34% (95% CI 29-39%) and Cambridge by 40% (28-52%). Discrimination was always better in individuals younger than 60 years or with a low waist circumference than in those aged at least 60 years or with a large waist circumference. Patterns were inconsistent for BMI. All models overestimated risks for individuals with a BMI of <25 kg/m(2). Calibration patterns were inconsistent for age and waist-circumference subgroups. INTERPRETATION: Existing diabetes prediction models can be used to identify individuals at high risk of type 2 diabetes in the general population. However, the performance of each model varies with country, age, sex, and adiposity. FUNDING: The European Union.

Balancing bleeding and thrombotic risk with new oral anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) markedly increases the risk of stroke. Warfarin is highly effective for the prevention of stroke in such patients, but it is difficult to use and causes bleeding. Three new oral anticoagulants have been approved for stroke prevention in AF patients, and are at least as effective as warfarin with better bleeding profiles. These new agents have changed and simplified our approach to stroke prevention, as the threshold for initiation of oral anticoagulation is lower. All patients with AF should be risk assessed using the CHA2DS2-VASc score, and all patients with a score of 1 or above (except women with female sex as their only risk factor on the CHA2DS2-VASc score) should be considered for oral anticoagulation with one of the new agents. Formal bleeding risk assessment is essential, and can be done by using the well-validated HAS-BLED score.