Systematic evaluation of high-throughput PBK modelling strategies for the prediction of intravenous and oral pharmacokinetics in humans.

Physiologically based kinetic (PBK) modelling offers a mechanistic basis for predicting the pharmaco-/toxicokinetics of compounds and thereby provides critical information for integrating toxicity and exposure data to replace animal testing with in vitro or in silico methods. However, traditional PBK modelling depends on animal and human data, which limits its usefulness for non-animal methods. To address this limitation, high-throughput PBK modelling aims to rely exclusively on in vitro and in silico data for model generation. Here, we evaluate a variety of in silico tools and different strategies to parameterise PBK models with input values from various sources in a high-throughput manner. We gather 2000 + publicly available human in vivo concentration-time profiles of 200 + compounds (IV and oral administration), as well as in silico, in vitro and in vivo determined compound-specific parameters required for the PBK modelling of these compounds. Then, we systematically evaluate all possible PBK model parametrisation strategies in PK-Sim and quantify their prediction accuracy against the collected in vivo concentration-time profiles. Our results show that even simple, generic high-throughput PBK modelling can provide accurate predictions of the pharmacokinetics of most compounds (87% of Cmax and 84% of AUC within tenfold). Nevertheless, we also observe major differences in prediction accuracies between the different parameterisation strategies, as well as between different compounds. Finally, we outline a strategy for high-throughput PBK modelling that relies exclusively on freely available tools. Our findings contribute to a more robust understanding of the reliability of high-throughput PBK modelling, which is essential to establish the confidence necessary for its utilisation in Next-Generation Risk Assessment.

Report of the First ONTOX Stakeholder Network Meeting: Digging Under the Surface of ONTOX Together With the Stakeholders.

The first Stakeholder Network Meeting of the EU Horizon 2020-funded ONTOX project was held on 13-14 March 2023, in Brussels, Belgium. The discussion centred around identifying specific challenges, barriers and drivers in relation to the implementation of non-animal new approach methodologies (NAMs) and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), in order to help address the issues and rank them according to their associated level of difficulty. ONTOX aims to advance the assessment of chemical risk to humans, without the use of animal testing, by developing non-animal NAMs and PRA in line with 21st century toxicity testing principles. Stakeholder groups (regulatory authorities, companies, academia, non-governmental organisations) were identified and invited to participate in a meeting and a survey, by which their current position in relation to the implementation of NAMs and PRA was ascertained, as well as specific challenges and drivers highlighted. The survey analysis revealed areas of agreement and disagreement among stakeholders on topics such as capacity building, sustainability, regulatory acceptance, validation of adverse outcome pathways, acceptance of artificial intelligence (AI) in risk assessment, and guaranteeing consumer safety. The stakeholder network meeting resulted in the identification of barriers, drivers and specific challenges that need to be addressed. Breakout groups discussed topics such as hazard versus risk assessment, future reliance on AI and machine learning, regulatory requirements for industry and sustainability of the ONTOX Hub platform. The outputs from these discussions provided insights for overcoming barriers and leveraging drivers for implementing NAMs and PRA. It was concluded that there is a continued need for stakeholder engagement, including the organisation of a 'hackathon' to tackle challenges, to ensure the successful implementation of NAMs and PRA in chemical risk assessment.

OECD harmonised template 201: Structuring and reporting mechanistic information to foster the integration of new approach methodologies for hazard and risk assessment of chemicals.

In the European Union, the Chemicals Strategy for Sustainability (CSS) highlights the need to enhance the identification and assessment of substances of concern while reducing animal testing, thus fostering the development and use of New Approach Methodologies (NAMs) such as in silico, in vitro and in chemico. In the United States, the Tox21 strategy aims at shifting toxicological assessments away from traditional animal studies towards target-specific, mechanism-based and biological observations mainly obtained by using NAMs. Many other jurisdictions around the world are also increasing the use of NAMs. Hence, the provision of dedicated non-animal toxicological data and reporting formats as a basis for chemical risk assessment is necessary. Harmonising data reporting is crucial when aiming at re-using and sharing data for chemical risk assessment across jurisdictions. The OECD has developed a series of OECD Harmonised Templates (OHT), which are standard data formats designed for reporting information used for the risk assessment of chemicals relevant to their intrinsic properties, including effects on human health (e.g., toxicokinetics, skin sensitisation, repeated dose toxicity) and the environment (e.g., toxicity to test species and wildlife, biodegradation in soil, metabolism of residues in crops). The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the applicability of the OHT standard format for reporting information under various chemical risk assessment regimes, and to provide users with practical guidance on the use of OHT 201, in particular to report test results on intermediate effects and mechanistic information.

Predicting nonlinear relationships between external and internal concentrations with physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling.

Although external concentrations are more readily quantified and often used as the metric for regulating and mitigating exposures to environmental chemicals, the toxicological response to an environmental chemical is more directly related to its internal concentrations than the external concentration. The processes of absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME) determine the quantitative relationship between the external and internal concentrations, and these processes are often susceptible to saturation at high concentrations, which can lead to nonlinear changes in internal concentrations that deviate from proportionality. Using generic physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models, we explored how saturable absorption or clearance influence the shape of the internal to external concentration (IEC) relationship. We used the models for hypothetical chemicals to show how differences in kinetic parameters can impact the shape of an IEC relationship; and models for styrene and caffeine to explore how exposure route, frequency, and duration impact the IEC relationships in rat and human exposures. We also analyzed available plasma concentration data for 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid to demonstrate how a PBPK modeling approach can be an alternative to common statistical methods for analyzing dose proportionality. A PBPK modeling approach can be a valuable tool used in the early stages of a chemical safety assessment program to optimize the design of longer-term animal toxicity studies or to interpret study results.

Towards best use and regulatory acceptance of generic physiologically based kinetic (PBK) models for in vitro-to-in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) in chemical risk assessment.

With an increasing need to incorporate new approach methodologies (NAMs) in chemical risk assessment and the concomitant need to phase out animal testing, the interpretation of in vitro assay readouts for quantitative hazard characterisation becomes more important. Physiologically based kinetic (PBK) models, which simulate the fate of chemicals in tissues of the body, play an essential role in extrapolating in vitro effect concentrations to in vivo bioequivalent exposures. As PBK-based testing approaches evolve, it will become essential to standardise PBK modelling approaches towards a consensus approach that can be used in quantitative in vitro-to-in vivo extrapolation (QIVIVE) studies for regulatory chemical risk assessment based on in vitro assays. Based on results of an ECETOC expert workshop, steps are recommended that can improve regulatory adoption: (1) define context and implementation, taking into consideration model complexity for building fit-for-purpose PBK models, (2) harmonise physiological input parameters and their distribution and define criteria for quality chemical-specific parameters, especially in the absence of in vivo data, (3) apply Good Modelling Practices (GMP) to achieve transparency and design a stepwise approach for PBK model development for risk assessors, (4) evaluate model predictions using alternatives to in vivo PK data including read-across approaches, (5) use case studies to facilitate discussions between modellers and regulators of chemical risk assessment. Proof-of-concepts of generic PBK modelling approaches are published in the scientific literature at an increasing rate. Working on the previously proposed steps is, therefore, needed to gain confidence in PBK modelling approaches for regulatory use.

Extension of the Virtual Cell Based Assay from a 2-D to a 3-D Cell Culture Model.

Prediction of chemical toxicity is very useful in risk assessment. With the current paradigm shift towards the use of in vitro and in silico systems, we present herein a theoretical mathematical description of a quasi-diffusion process to predict chemical concentrations in 3-D spheroid cell cultures. By extending a 2-D Virtual Cell Based Assay (VCBA) model into a 3-D spheroid cell model, we assume that cells are arranged in a series of concentric layers within the sphere. We formulate the chemical quasi-diffusion process by simplifying the spheroid with respect to the number of cells in each layer. The system was calibrated and tested with acetaminophen (APAP). Simulated predictions of APAP toxicity were compared with empirical data from in vitro measurements by using a 3-D spheroid model. The results of this first attempt to extend the VCBA model are promising - they show that the VCBA model simulates close correlation between the influence of compound concentration and the viability of the HepaRG 3-D cell culture. The 3-D VCBA model provides a complement to current in vitro procedures to refine experimental setups, to fill data gaps and help in the interpretation of in vitro data for the purposes of risk assessment.

Current EU regulatory requirements for the assessment of chemicals and cosmetic products: challenges and opportunities for introducing new approach methodologies.

The EU Directive 2010/63/EU   on the protection of animals used for scientific purposes and other EU regulations, such as REACH and the Cosmetic Products Regulation advocate for a change in the way toxicity testing is conducted. Whilst the Cosmetic Products Regulation bans animal testing altogether, REACH aims for a progressive shift from in vivo testing towards quantitative in vitro and computational approaches. Several endpoints can already be addressed using non-animal approaches including skin corrosion and irritation, serious eye damage and irritation, skin sensitisation, and mutagenicity and genotoxicity. However, for systemic effects such as acute toxicity, repeated dose toxicity and reproductive and developmental toxicity, evaluation of chemicals under REACH still heavily relies on animal tests. Here we summarise current EU regulatory requirements for the human health assessment of chemicals under REACH and the Cosmetic Products Regulation, considering the more critical endpoints and identifying the main challenges in introducing alternative methods into regulatory testing practice. This supports a recent initiative taken by the International Cooperation on Alternative Test Methods (ICATM) to summarise current regulatory requirements specific for the assessment of chemicals and cosmetic products for several human health-related endpoints, with the aim of comparing different jurisdictions and coordinating the promotion and ultimately the implementation of non-animal approaches worldwide. Recent initiatives undertaken at European level to promote the 3Rs and the use of alternative methods in current regulatory practice are also discussed.

New framework for a non-animal approach adequately assures the safety of cosmetic ingredients - A case study on caffeine.

This case study on the model substance caffeine demonstrates the viability of a 10-step read-across (RAX) framework in practice. New approach methodologies (NAM), including RAX and physiologically-based kinetic (PBK) modelling were used to assess the consumer safety of caffeine. Appropriate animal systemic toxicity data were used from the most relevant RAX analogue while assuming that no suitable animal toxicity data were available for caffeine. Based on structural similarities, three primary metabolites of the target chemical caffeine (theophylline, theobromine and paraxanthine) were selected as its most relevant analogues, to estimate a point of departure in order to support a next generation risk assessment (NGRA). On the basis of the pivotal mode of action (MOA) of caffeine and other methylxanthines, theophylline appeared to be the most potent and suitable analogue. A worst-case aggregate exposure assessment determined consumer exposure to caffeine from different sources, such as cosmetics and food/drinks. Using a PBK model to estimate human blood concentrations following exposure to caffeine, an acceptable Margin of Internal Exposure (MOIE) of 27-fold was derived on the basis of a RAX using theophylline animal data, which suggests that the NGRA approach for caffeine is sufficiently conservative to protect human health.

Opportunities and challenges related to saturation of toxicokinetic processes: Implications for risk assessment.

Top dose selection for repeated dose animal studies has generally focused on identification of apical endpoints, use of the limit dose, or determination of a maximum tolerated dose (MTD). The intent is to optimize the ability of toxicity tests performed in a small number of animals to detect effects for hazard identification. An alternative approach, the kinetically derived maximum dose (KMD), has been proposed as a mechanism to integrate toxicokinetic (TK) data into the dose selection process. The approach refers to the dose above which the systemic exposures depart from being proportional to external doses. This non-linear external-internal dose relationship arises from saturation or limitation of TK process(es), such as absorption or metabolism. The importance of TK information is widely acknowledged when assessing human health risks arising from exposures to environmental chemicals, as TK determines the amount of chemical at potential sites of toxicological responses. However, there have been differing opinions and interpretations within the scientific and regulatory communities related to the validity and application of the KMD concept. A multi-stakeholder working group, led by the Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI), was formed to provide an opportunity for impacted stakeholders to address commonly raised scientific and technical issues related to this topic and, more specifically, a weight of evidence approach is recommended to inform design and dose selection for repeated dose animal studies. Commonly raised challenges related to the use of TK data for dose selection are discussed, recommendations are provided, and illustrative case examples are provided to address these challenges or refute misconceptions.

A Systematic Review of Published Physiologically-based Kinetic Models and an Assessment of their Chemical Space Coverage.

Across multiple sectors, including food, cosmetics and pharmaceutical industries, there is a need to predict the potential effects of xenobiotics. These effects are determined by the intrinsic ability of the substance, or its derivatives, to interact with the biological system, and its concentration-time profile at the target site. Physiologically-based kinetic (PBK) models can predict organ-level concentration-time profiles, however, the models are time and resource intensive to generate de novo. Read-across is an approach used to reduce or replace animal testing, wherein information from a data-rich chemical is used to make predictions for a data-poor chemical. The recent increase in published PBK models presents the opportunity to use a read-across approach for PBK modelling, that is, to use PBK model information from one chemical to inform the development or evaluation of a PBK model for a similar chemical. Essential to this process, is identifying the chemicals for which a PBK model already exists. Herein, the results of a systematic review of existing PBK models, compliant with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) format, are presented. Model information, including species, sex, life-stage, route of administration, software platform used and the availability of model equations, was captured for 7541 PBK models. Chemical information (identifiers and physico-chemical properties) has also been recorded for 1150 unique chemicals associated with these models. This PBK model data set has been made readily accessible, as a Microsoft Excel® spreadsheet, providing a valuable resource for those developing, using or evaluating PBK models in industry, academia and the regulatory sectors.

PBPK model reporting template for chemical risk assessment applications.

Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling analysis does not stand on its own for regulatory purposes but is a robust tool to support drug/chemical safety assessment. While the development of PBPK models have grown steadily since their emergence, only a handful of models have been accepted to support regulatory purposes due to obstacles such as the lack of a standardized template for reporting PBPK analysis. Here, we expand the existing guidances designed for pharmaceutical applications by recommending additional elements that are relevant to environmental chemicals. This harmonized reporting template can be adopted and customized by public health agencies receiving PBPK model submission, and it can also serve as general guidance for submitting PBPK-related studies for publication in journals or other modeling sharing purposes. The current effort represents one of several ongoing collaborations among the PBPK modeling and risk assessment communities to promote, when appropriate, incorporating PBPK modeling to characterize the influence of pharmacokinetics on safety decisions made by regulatory agencies.

A Review of In Silico Tools as Alternatives to Animal Testing: Principles, Resources and Applications.

Across the spectrum of industrial sectors, including pharmaceuticals, chemicals, personal care products, food additives and their associated regulatory agencies, there is a need to develop robust and reliable methods to reduce or replace animal testing. It is generally recognised that no single alternative method will be able to provide a one-to-one replacement for assays based on more complex toxicological endpoints. Hence, information from a combination of techniques is required. A greater understanding of the time and concentration-dependent mechanisms, underlying the interactions between chemicals and biological systems, and the sequence of events that can lead to apical effects, will help to move forward the science of reducing and replacing animal experiments. In silico modelling, in vitro assays, high-throughput screening, organ-on-a-chip technology, omics and mathematical biology, can provide complementary information to develop a complete picture of the potential response of an organism to a chemical stressor. Adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) and systems biology frameworks enable relevant information from diverse sources to be logically integrated. While individual researchers do not need to be experts across all disciplines, it is useful to have a fundamental understanding of what other areas of science have to offer, and how knowledge can be integrated with other disciplines. The purpose of this review is to provide those who are unfamiliar with predictive in silico tools, with a fundamental understanding of the underlying theory. Current applications, software, barriers to acceptance, new developments and the use of integrated approaches are all discussed, with additional resources being signposted for each of the topics.

Regulatory assessment and risk management of chemical mixtures: challenges and ways forward.

This paper summarizes current challenges, the potential use of novel scientific methodologies, and ways forward in the risk assessment and risk management of mixtures. Generally, methodologies to address mixtures have been agreed; however, there are still several data and methodological gaps to be addressed. New approach methodologies can support the filling of knowledge gaps on the toxicity and mode(s) of action of individual chemicals. (Bio)Monitoring, modeling, and better data sharing will support the derivation of more realistic co-exposure scenarios. As knowledge and data gaps often hamper an in-depth assessment of specific chemical mixtures, the option of taking account of possible mixture effects in single substance risk assessments is briefly discussed. To allow risk managers to take informed decisions, transparent documentation of assumptions and related uncertainties is recommended indicating the potential impact on the assessment. Considering the large number of possible combinations of chemicals in mixtures, prioritization is needed, so that actions first address mixtures of highest concern and chemicals that drive the mixture risk. As chemicals with different applications and regulated separately might lead to similar toxicological effects, it is important to consider chemical mixtures across legislative sectors.

An adverse outcome pathway for parkinsonian motor deficits associated with mitochondrial complex I inhibition.

Epidemiological studies have observed an association between pesticide exposure and the development of Parkinson's disease, but have not established causality. The concept of an adverse outcome pathway (AOP) has been developed as a framework for the organization of available information linking the modulation of a molecular target [molecular initiating event (MIE)], via a sequence of essential biological key events (KEs), with an adverse outcome (AO). Here, we present an AOP covering the toxicological pathways that link the binding of an inhibitor to mitochondrial complex I (i.e., the MIE) with the onset of parkinsonian motor deficits (i.e., the AO). This AOP was developed according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development guidelines and uploaded to the AOP database. The KEs linking complex I inhibition to parkinsonian motor deficits are mitochondrial dysfunction, impaired proteostasis, neuroinflammation, and the degeneration of dopaminergic neurons of the substantia nigra. These KEs, by convention, were linearly organized. However, there was also evidence of additional feed-forward connections and shortcuts between the KEs, possibly depending on the intensity of the insult and the model system applied. The present AOP demonstrates mechanistic plausibility for epidemiological observations on a relationship between pesticide exposure and an elevated risk for Parkinson's disease development.

Finding synergies for 3Rs - Toxicokinetics and read-across: Report from an EPAA partners' Forum.

The European Partnership for Alternative Approaches to Animal Testing (EPAA) convened a Partners' Forum Toxicokinetics and Read-Across to provide an overview on research activities to develop in vitro toxicokinetics methods and physiologically-based kinetic (PBK) models and to find synergies to enhance use of toxicokinetic data to strengthen read-across. Currently, lacking toxicokinetic data often prevent the application of read-across. Preferably, toxicokinetic data should be generated using in vitro and in silico tools and anchored towards human relevance. In certain sectors, PBK modelling is being used for risk assessment, but less so in others. Specific activities were identified to facilitate the use of in vitro and in silico toxicokinetic data to support read-across: The collation of available tools indicating the parameters and applicability domains covered; endpoint-specific guidance on toxicokinetics parameters required for read-across; case studies exemplifying how toxicokinetic data help support read-across. Activities to enhance the scientific robustness of read-across include the further user-friendly combination of read-across tools and formal guidance by the authorities specifying the minimum information requirements to justify read-across for a given toxicity endpoint. The EPAA was invited to continue dissemination activities and to explore possibilities to collate a contemporaneous list of open toxicokinetics tools that assist risk assessment.

Investigating the state of physiologically based kinetic modelling practices and challenges associated with gaining regulatory acceptance of model applications.

Physiologically based kinetic (PBK) models are used widely throughout a number of working sectors, including academia and industry, to provide insight into the dosimetry related to observed adverse health effects in humans and other species. Use of these models has increased over the last several decades, especially in conjunction with emerging alternative methods to animal testing, such as in vitro studies and data-driven in silico quantitative-structure-activity-relationship (QSAR) predictions. Experimental information derived from these new approach methods can be used as input for model parameters and allows for increased confidence in models for chemicals that did not have in vivo data for model calibration. Despite significant advancements in good modelling practice (GMP) for model development and evaluation, there remains some reluctance among regulatory agencies to use such models during the risk assessment process. Here, the results of a survey disseminated to the modelling community are presented in order to inform the frequency of use and applications of PBK models in science and regulatory submission. Additionally, the survey was designed to identify a network of investigators involved in PBK modelling and knowledgeable of GMP so that they might be contacted in the future for peer review of PBK models, especially in regards to vetting the models to such a degree as to gain a greater acceptance for regulatory purposes.

Evaluation of Interindividual Human Variation in Bioactivation and DNA Adduct Formation of Estragole in Liver Predicted by Physiologically Based Kinetic/Dynamic and Monte Carlo Modeling.

Estragole is a known hepatocarcinogen in rodents at high doses following metabolic conversion to the DNA-reactive metabolite 1'-sulfooxyestragole. The aim of the present study was to model possible levels of DNA adduct formation in (individual) humans upon exposure to estragole. This was done by extending a previously defined PBK model for estragole in humans to include (i) new data on interindividual variation in the kinetics for the major PBK model parameters influencing the formation of 1'-sulfooxyestragole, (ii) an equation describing the relationship between 1'-sulfooxyestragole and DNA adduct formation, (iii) Monte Carlo modeling to simulate interindividual human variation in DNA adduct formation in the population, and (iv) a comparison of the predictions made to human data on DNA adduct formation for the related alkenylbenzene methyleugenol. Adequate model predictions could be made, with the predicted DNA adduct levels at the estimated daily intake of estragole of 0.01 mg/kg bw ranging between 1.6 and 8.8 adducts in 10(8) nucleotides (nts) (50th and 99th percentiles, respectively). This is somewhat lower than values reported in the literature for the related alkenylbenzene methyleugenol in surgical human liver samples. The predicted levels seem to be below DNA adduct levels that are linked with tumor formation by alkenylbenzenes in rodents, which were estimated to amount to 188-500 adducts per 10(8) nts at the BMD10 values of estragole and methyleugenol. Although this does not seem to point to a significant health concern for human dietary exposure, drawing firm conclusions may have to await further validation of the model's predictions.

Putative adverse outcome pathways relevant to neurotoxicity.

The Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework provides a template that facilitates understanding of complex biological systems and the pathways of toxicity that result in adverse outcomes (AOs). The AOP starts with an molecular initiating event (MIE) in which a chemical interacts with a biological target(s), followed by a sequential series of KEs, which are cellular, anatomical, and/or functional changes in biological processes, that ultimately result in an AO manifest in individual organisms and populations. It has been developed as a tool for a knowledge-based safety assessment that relies on understanding mechanisms of toxicity, rather than simply observing its adverse outcome. A large number of cellular and molecular processes are known to be crucial to proper development and function of the central (CNS) and peripheral nervous systems (PNS). However, there are relatively few examples of well-documented pathways that include causally linked MIEs and KEs that result in adverse outcomes in the CNS or PNS. As a first step in applying the AOP framework to adverse health outcomes associated with exposure to exogenous neurotoxic substances, the EU Reference Laboratory for Alternatives to Animal Testing (EURL ECVAM) organized a workshop (March 2013, Ispra, Italy) to identify potential AOPs relevant to neurotoxic and developmental neurotoxic outcomes. Although the AOPs outlined during the workshop are not fully described, they could serve as a basis for further, more detailed AOP development and evaluation that could be useful to support human health risk assessment in a variety of ways.

Reproductive toxicity in birds predicted by physiologically-based kinetics and bioenergetics modelling.

Effects on the growth and reproduction of birds are important endpoints in the environmental risk assessment (ERA) of pesticides. Toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models based on dynamic energy budget theory (DEB) are promising tools to predict these effects mechanistically and make extrapolations relevant to ERA. However, before DEB-TKTD models are accepted as part of ERA for birds, ecotoxicological case studies are required so that stakeholders can assess their capabilities. We present such a case-study, modelling the effects of the fluopyram metabolite benzamide on the northern bobwhite quail (Colinus virginianus). We parametrised a DEB-TKTD model for the embryo stage on the basis of an egg injection study, designed to provide data for model development. We found that information on various endpoints, such as survival, growth, and yolk utilisation were needed to clearly distinguish between the performance of model variants with different TKTD assumptions. The calibration data were best explained when it was assumed that chemical uptake occurs via the yolk and that benzamide places stress on energy assimilation and mobilisation. To be able to bridge from the in vitro tests to real-life exposure, we developed a physiologically-based toxicokinetic (PBK) model for the quail and used it to predict benzamide exposure inside the eggs based on dietary exposure in a standard reproductive toxicity study. We then combined the standard DEB model with the TKTD module calibrated to the egg injection studies and used it to predict effects on hatchling and 14-day chick weight based on the exposure predicted by the PBK model. Observed weight reductions, relative to controls, were accurately predicted. Thus, we demonstrate that DEB-TKTD models, in combination with suitable experimental data and, if necessary, with an exposure model, can be used in bird ERA to predict chemical effects on reproduction.