Poleward migration of the destructive effects of tropical cyclones during the 20th century.

Determination of long-term tropical cyclone (TC) variability is of enormous importance to society; however, changes in TC activity are poorly understood owing to discrepancies among various datasets and limited span of instrumental records. While the increasing intensity and frequency of TCs have been previously documented on a long-term scale using various proxy records, determination of their poleward migration has been based mostly on short-term instrumental data. Here we present a unique tree-ring-based approach for determination of long-term variability in TC activity via forest disturbance rates in northeast Asia (33-45°N). Our results indicate significant long-term changes in TC activity, with increased rates of disturbances in the northern latitudes over the past century. The disturbance frequency was stable over time in the southern latitudes, however. Our findings of increasing disturbance frequency in the areas formerly situated at the edge of TC activity provide evidence supporting the broad relevance of poleward migration of TCs. Our results significantly enhance our understanding of the effects of climate change on TCs and emphasize the need for determination of long-term variation of past TC activity to improve future TC projections.

Detecting Coppice Legacies from Tree Growth.

In coppice-with-standards, once a common type of management in Central European lowland forests, selected trees (standards) were left to grow mature among the regularly harvested coppice stools to obtain construction wood. After the underwood was harvested, the forest canopy opened rapidly, giving standard trees an opportunity to benefit from reduced competition. Although this silvicultural system virtually disappeared after WWII, historical management cycles can still be traced in the tree-rings of remaining standards. Our research aims at answering the question whether tree-ring series of standard trees can be used to reconstruct past management practices. The study was carried out on 117 oak standard trees from five sites situated in formerly coppiced calcareous oak-hornbeam and acidophilous oak forests in the Bohemian Karst Protected Landscape Area, Czech Republic. The evaluation was based on the analysis of growth releases representing the response of the standards to coppicing events, and comparison to the archival records of coppice events. Our results showed that coppicing events can be successfully detected by tree-ring analysis, although there are some limitations. Altogether 241 releases were identified (49% of major releases). Large number of releases could be related to historical records, with the major ones giving better results. The overall probability of correct detection (positive predictive power) was 58%, ranging from 50 to 67%, probability for major releases was 78%, ranging from 63 to 100% for different sites. The ability of individual trees to mirror past coppice events was significantly affected by competition from neighboring trees (their number and the sum of distance-weighted basal areas). A dendro-ecological approach to the study of forest management history can serve as an input for current attempts of coppice reintroduction and for conservation purposes.