Characterizing unstructured data with the nearest neighbor permutation entropy.

Permutation entropy and its associated frameworks are remarkable examples of physics-inspired techniques adept at processing complex and extensive datasets. Despite substantial progress in developing and applying these tools, their use has been predominantly limited to structured datasets such as time series or images. Here, we introduce the k-nearest neighbor permutation entropy, an innovative extension of the permutation entropy tailored for unstructured data, irrespective of their spatial or temporal configuration and dimensionality. Our approach builds upon nearest neighbor graphs to establish neighborhood relations and uses random walks to extract ordinal patterns and their distribution, thereby defining the k-nearest neighbor permutation entropy. This tool not only adeptly identifies variations in patterns of unstructured data but also does so with a precision that significantly surpasses conventional measures such as spatial autocorrelation. Additionally, it provides a natural approach for incorporating amplitude information and time gaps when analyzing time series or images, thus significantly enhancing its noise resilience and predictive capabilities compared to the usual permutation entropy. Our research substantially expands the applicability of ordinal methods to more general data types, opening promising research avenues for extending the permutation entropy toolkit for unstructured data.

Functional characteristics of hub and wave-initiator cells in ß cell networks.

Islets of Langerhans operate as multicellular networks in which several hundred ß cells work in synchrony to produce secretory pulses of insulin, a hormone crucial for controlling metabolic homeostasis. Their collective rhythmic activity is facilitated by gap junctional coupling and affected by their functional heterogeneity, but the details of this robust and coordinated behavior are still not fully understood. Recent advances in multicellular imaging and optogenetic and photopharmacological strategies, as well as in network science, have led to the discovery of specialized ß cell subpopulations that were suggested to critically determine the collective dynamics in the islets. In particular hubs, i.e., ß cells with many functional connections, are believed to significantly enhance communication capacities of the intercellular network and facilitate an efficient spreading of intercellular Ca2+ waves, whereas wave-initiator cells trigger intercellular signals in their cohorts. Here, we determined Ca2+ signaling characteristics of these two ß cell subpopulations and the relationship between them by means of functional multicellular Ca2+ imaging in mouse pancreatic tissue slices in combination with methods of complex network theory. We constructed network layers based on individual Ca2+ waves to identify wave initiators, and functional correlation-based networks to detect hubs. We found that both cell types exhibit a higher-than-average active time under both physiological and supraphysiological glucose concentrations, but also that they differ significantly in many other functional characteristics. Specifically, Ca2+ oscillations in hubs are more regular, and their role appears to be much more stable over time than for initiator cells. Moreover, in contrast to wave initiators, hubs transmit intercellular signals faster than other cells, which implies a stronger intercellular coupling. Our research indicates that hubs and wave-initiator cell subpopulations are both natural features of healthy pancreatic islets, but their functional roles in principle do not overlap and should thus not be considered equal.

Eco-evolutionary cyclic dominance among predators, prey, and parasites.

Predator-prey interactions are one of ecology's central research themes, but with many interdisciplinary implications across the social and natural sciences. Here we consider an often-overlooked species in these interactions, namely parasites. We first show that a simple predator-prey-parasite model, inspired by the classical Lotka-Volterra equations, fails to produce a stable coexistence of all three species, thus failing to provide a biologically realistic outcome. To improve this, we introduce free space as a relevant eco-evolutionary component in a new mathematical model that uses a game-theoretical payoff matrix to describe a more realistic setup. We then show that the consideration of free space stabilizes the dynamics by means of cyclic dominance that emerges between the three species. We determine the parameter regions of coexistence as well as the types of bifurcations leading to it by means of analytical derivations as well as by means of numerical simulations. We conclude that the consideration of free space as a finite resource reveals the limits of biodiversity in predator-prey-parasite interactions, and it may also help us in the determination of factors that promote a healthy biota.

Communicating sentiment and outlook reverses inaction against collective risks.

Collective risks permeate society, triggering social dilemmas in which working toward a common goal is impeded by selfish interests. One such dilemma is mitigating runaway climate change. To study the social aspects of climate-change mitigation, we organized an experimental game and asked volunteer groups of three different sizes to invest toward a common mitigation goal. If investments reached a preset target, volunteers would avoid all consequences and convert their remaining capital into monetary payouts. In the opposite case, however, volunteers would lose all their capital with 50% probability. The dilemma was, therefore, whether to invest one's own capital or wait for others to step in. We find that communicating sentiment and outlook helps to resolve the dilemma by a fundamental shift in investment patterns. Groups in which communication is allowed invest persistently and hardly ever give up, even when their current investment deficits are substantial. The improved investment patterns are robust to group size, although larger groups are harder to coordinate, as evidenced by their overall lower success frequencies. A clustering algorithm reveals three behavioral types and shows that communication reduces the abundance of the free-riding type. Climate-change mitigation, however, is achieved mainly by cooperator and altruist types stepping up and increasing contributions as the failure looms. Meanwhile, contributions from free riders remain flat throughout the game. This reveals that the mechanisms behind avoiding collective risks depend on an interaction between behavioral type, communication, and timing.

Determinants of collective failure in excitable networks.

We study collective failures in biologically realistic networks that consist of coupled excitable units. The networks have broad-scale degree distribution, high modularity, and small-world properties, while the excitable dynamics is determined by the paradigmatic FitzHugh-Nagumo model. We consider different coupling strengths, bifurcation distances, and various aging scenarios as potential culprits of collective failure. We find that for intermediate coupling strengths, the network remains globally active the longest if the high-degree nodes are first targets for inactivation. This agrees well with previously published results, which showed that oscillatory networks can be highly fragile to the targeted inactivation of low-degree nodes, especially under weak coupling. However, we also show that the most efficient strategy to enact collective failure does not only non-monotonically depend on the coupling strength, but it also depends on the distance from the bifurcation point to the oscillatory behavior of individual excitable units. Altogether, we provide a comprehensive account of determinants of collective failure in excitable networks, and we hope this will prove useful for better understanding breakdowns in systems that are subject to such dynamics.

Deterrence through punishment can resolve collective risk dilemmas in carbon emission games.

Collective risk social dilemmas are at the heart of the most pressing global challenges we are facing today, including climate change mitigation and the overuse of natural resources. Previous research has framed this problem as a public goods game (PGG), where a dilemma arises between short-term interests and long-term sustainability. In the PGG, subjects are placed in groups and asked to choose between cooperation and defection, while keeping in mind their personal interests as well as the commons. Here, we explore how and to what extent the costly punishment of defectors is successful in enforcing cooperation by means of human experiments. We show that an apparent irrational underestimation of the risk of being punished plays an important role, and that for sufficiently high punishment fines, this vanishes and the threat of deterrence suffices to preserve the commons. Interestingly, however, we find that high fines not only avert freeriders, but they also demotivate some of the most generous altruists. As a consequence, the tragedy of the commons is predominantly averted due to cooperators that contribute only their "fair share" to the common pool. We also find that larger groups require larger fines for the deterrence of punishment to have the desired prosocial effect.

Replicator dynamics of public goods games with global exclusion.

Studies to date on the role of social exclusion in public cooperation have mainly focused on the peer or pool sanctioning types of excluding free-riders from the share of common goods. However, the exclusive behaviors are not necessarily performed by individuals or local organizations but may rather be implemented by a centralized enforcement institution at a global scale. Besides, previous modeling methods of either peer or pool exclusion often presuppose some particular forms of feedback between the individual or collective efforts and the efficiency of social exclusion and, therefore, cannot comprehensively evaluate their effects on the evolution of cooperation in the social dilemma situations. Here, we construct a general model of global exclusion by considering the successful construction of the centralized exclusive institution as an arbitrary non-decreasing and smooth function of the collective efforts made by the global excluders and then theoretically analyze its potential impacts in the replicator dynamics of the public goods game. Interestingly, we have shown that, despite the presence of both the first- and second-order free-riding problems, global exclusion can indeed lead to the emergence or even stabilization of public cooperation without the support of any other evolutionary mechanism. In addition, we have also observed rich dynamical behaviors, such as the occurrence of a global or local family of neutrally stable closed orbits revolving around a nonlinear center or the existence of stable heteroclinic cycles between defectors, cooperators as well as global excluders, which give rise to a classification of up to 21 different phases.

Synchronization in Hindmarsh-Rose neurons subject to higher-order interactions.

Higher-order interactions might play a significant role in the collective dynamics of the brain. With this motivation, we here consider a simplicial complex of neurons, in particular, studying the effects of pairwise and three-body interactions on the emergence of synchronization. We assume pairwise interactions to be mediated through electrical synapses, while for second-order interactions, we separately study diffusive coupling and nonlinear chemical coupling. For all the considered cases, we derive the necessary conditions for synchronization by means of linear stability analysis, and we compute the synchronization errors numerically. Our research shows that the second-order interactions, even if of weak strength, can lead to synchronization under significantly lower first-order coupling strengths. Moreover, the overall synchronization cost is reduced due to the introduction of three-body interactions if compared to pairwise interactions.

Turkey's transition to face-to-face schooling during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic majorly disrupted conventional schooling and many countries maintained educational services through distance education. The duration of school closures in Turkey was longer than most OECD countries, thus Turkey prioritized school reopenings in the 2021-2022 academic year to mitigate possible negative outcomes of closures. Here we study the compatibility of implications for school reopenings in Turkey with these practices and assess the first semester of face-to-face schooling. METHODS: We have used document analysis to present and compare the practices in Turkey with international practices. We also used a comparative approach to assess the coherence between policies in Turkey and international suggestions. RESULTS: We find that vaccination rates of teachers and education staff are quite high in Turkey. Other practices, mandatory face masks, class-based closures and quarantine policies, are also in agreement with international practices. These steps are supported with frequent cleaning and ventilation of school environments, as well as with social distancing measures in schools. DISCUSSION: Consequently, the rate of daily closed classrooms has been kept below 1%, and the patterns of closures and openings are in general agreement with the changes of positive cases in the Turkish society. The net rate of closed classrooms decreased with the decline of quarantine days in Turkey. We hope that these insights will inform about school openings and contribute to best practices for face-to-face schooling.

Eco-evolutionary dynamics of cooperation in the presence of policing.

Ecology and evolution are inherently linked, and studying a mathematical model that considers both holds promise of insightful discoveries related to the dynamics of cooperation. In the present article, we use the prisoner's dilemma (PD) game as a basis for long-term apprehension of the essential social dilemma related to cooperation among unrelated individuals. We upgrade the contemporary PD game with an inclusion of evolution-induced act of punishment as a third competing strategy in addition to the traditional cooperators and defectors. In a population structure, the abundance of ecologically-viable free space often regulates the reproductive opportunities of the constituents. Hence, additionally, we consider the availability of free space as an ecological footprint, thus arriving at a simple eco-evolutionary model, which displays fascinating complex dynamics. As possible outcomes, we report the individual dominance of cooperators and defectors as well as a plethora of mixed states, where different strategies coexist followed by maintaining the diversity in a socio-ecological framework. These states can either be steady or oscillating, whereby oscillations are sustained by cyclic dominance among different combinations of cooperators, defectors, and punishers. We also observe a novel route to cyclic dominance where cooperators, punishers, and defectors enter a coexistence via an inverse Hopf bifurcation that is followed by an inverse period doubling route.

History of art paintings through the lens of entropy and complexity.

Art is the ultimate expression of human creativity that is deeply influenced by the philosophy and culture of the corresponding historical epoch. The quantitative analysis of art is therefore essential for better understanding human cultural evolution. Here, we present a large-scale quantitative analysis of almost 140,000 paintings, spanning nearly a millennium of art history. Based on the local spatial patterns in the images of these paintings, we estimate the permutation entropy and the statistical complexity of each painting. These measures map the degree of visual order of artworks into a scale of order-disorder and simplicity-complexity that locally reflects qualitative categories proposed by art historians. The dynamical behavior of these measures reveals a clear temporal evolution of art, marked by transitions that agree with the main historical periods of art. Our research shows that different artistic styles have a distinct average degree of entropy and complexity, thus allowing a hierarchical organization and clustering of styles according to these metrics. We have further verified that the identified groups correspond well with the textual content used to qualitatively describe the styles and the applied complexity-entropy measures can be used for an effective classification of artworks.

Neighborhood size effects on the evolution of cooperation under myopic dynamics.

We study the evolution of cooperation in 2×2 social dilemma games in which players are located on a two-dimensional square lattice. During the evolution, each player modifies her strategy by means of myopic update dynamic to maximize her payoff while composing neighborhoods of different sizes, which are characterized by the corresponding radius, r. An investigation of the sublattice-ordered spatial structure for different values of r reveals that some patterns formed by cooperators and defectors can help the former to survive, even under untoward conditions. In contrast to individuals who resist the invasion of defectors by forming clusters due to network reciprocity, innovators spontaneously organize a socially divisive structure that provides strong support for the evolution of cooperation and advances better social systems.

Collective behavior in a two-layer neuronal network with time-varying chemical connections that are controlled by a Petri net.

In this paper, we propose and study a two-layer network composed of a Petri net in the first layer and a ring of coupled Hindmarsh-Rose neurons in the second layer. Petri nets are appropriate platforms not only for describing sequential processes but also for modeling information circulation in complex systems. Networks of neurons, on the other hand, are commonly used to study synchronization and other forms of collective behavior. Thus, merging both frameworks into a single model promises fascinating new insights into neuronal collective behavior that is subject to changes in network connectivity. In our case, the Petri net in the first layer manages the existence of excitatory and inhibitory links among the neurons in the second layer, thereby making the chemical connections time-varying. We focus on the emergence of different types of collective behavior in the model, such as synchronization, chimeras, and solitary states, by considering different inhibitory and excitatory tokens in the Petri net. We find that the existence of only inhibitory or excitatory tokens disturbs the synchronization of electrically coupled neurons and leads toward chimera and solitary states.

Two robust long short-term memory frameworks for trading stocks.

This paper aims to find a superior strategy for the daily trading on a portfolio of stocks for which traditional trading strategies perform poorly due to the low frequency of new information. The experimental work is divided into a set of traditional trading strategies and a set of long short-term memory networks. The networks incorporate general and specific trading patterns, where the former takes into account the universal decision factors for trading across many stocks, while the latter takes into account stock-specific decision factors. Our research shows that both long short-term memory networks, regardless of whether they are based on universal or stock-specific decision factors, significantly outperform traditional trading strategies. Interestingly, however, on average neither has the edge compared to the other, thus remaining ambivalent as to whether universality or specificality is to be preferred when it comes to designing long short-term memory networks for optimal trading.

The Singaporean model in public goods dilemmas with benevolent leaders and bribery.

Public goods dilemmas are at the heart of some of the greatest challenges of our time, including climate inaction, growing inequality, and the overuse of natural resources. The public goods game in which cooperators contribute to a common pool that is then shared equally with defectors who contribute nothing captures the gist of the problem. Cooperators therefore cannot prevail, which ultimately leads to the tragedy of the commons. Actions such as punishment, rewards, and exclusion have been shown to help, but they are costly, therefore rendering cooperators second-order free-riders due to their lack of participation in these actions. In the search for a remedy, we study the public goods game with benevolent leaders who, at a personal cost, have the ability to exclude defectors from using common pool resources. We also consider bribers who can pay the leaders to relax their exclusion efforts. In a traditional setting, this setup yields the standard second-order free-rider problem, where, ironically, the leaders are overcome by cooperators, who then themselves succumb to defectors. We show, however, that the Singaporean model - where a leader's payoff is determined not only by the regular sharing income from the firm production but also by the success of gross firm production as an incentive - can resolve the second-order free-rider problem. We also show that the detrimental effect of bribery can always be, no matter how high the bribe, held in check as long as the number of individuals engaged in this activity is low compared to the number of benevolent leaders. Otherwise, an abrupt transition to a cooperator-less state becomes unavoidable. We discuss the implications of our research for designing successful cooperation and anti-corruption strategies in public goods dilemmas.

Control of dynamics via identical time-lagged stochastic inputs.

We investigate the impact of a stochastic forcing, comprised of a sum of time-lagged copies of a single source of noise, on the system dynamics. This type of stochastic forcing could be made artificially, or it could be the result of shared upstream inputs to a system through different channel lengths. By means of a rigorous mathematical framework, we show that such a system is, in fact, equivalent to the classical case of a stochastically-driven dynamical system with time-delayed intrinsic dynamics but without a time lag in the input noise. We also observe a resonancelike effect between the intrinsic period of the oscillation and the time lag of the stochastic forcing, which may be used to determine the intrinsic period of oscillations or the inherent time delay in dynamical systems with oscillatory behavior or delays. As another useful application of imposing time-lagged stochastic forcing, we show that the dynamics of a system can be controlled by changing the time lag of this stochastic forcing, in a fashion similar to the classical case of Pyragas control via delayed feedback. To confirm these results experimentally, we set up a laser diode system with such stochastic inputs, which effectively behaves as a Langevin system. As in the theory, a peak emerged in the autocorrelation function of the output signal that could be tuned by the lag of the stochastic input. Our findings, thus, indicate a new approach for controlling useful instabilities in dynamical systems.

Wavelet entropy-based evaluation of intrinsic predictability of time series.

Intrinsic predictability is imperative to quantify inherent information contained in a time series and assists in evaluating the performance of different forecasting methods to get the best possible prediction. Model forecasting performance is the measure of the probability of success. Nevertheless, model performance or the model does not provide understanding for improvement in prediction. Intuitively, intrinsic predictability delivers the highest level of predictability for a time series and informative in unfolding whether the system is unpredictable or the chosen model is a poor choice. We introduce a novel measure, the Wavelet Entropy Energy Measure (WEEM), based on wavelet transformation and information entropy for quantification of intrinsic predictability of time series. To investigate the efficiency and reliability of the proposed measure, model forecast performance was evaluated via a wavelet networks approach. The proposed measure uses the wavelet energy distribution of a time series at different scales and compares it with the wavelet energy distribution of white noise to quantify a time series as deterministic or random. We test the WEEM using a wide variety of time series ranging from deterministic, non-stationary, and ones contaminated with white noise with different noise-signal ratios. Furthermore, a relationship is developed between the WEEM and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency, one of the widely known measures of forecast performance. The reliability of WEEM is demonstrated by exploring the relationship to logistic map and real-world data.

Cooperation on Interdependent Networks by Means of Migration and Stochastic Imitation.

Evolutionary game theory in the realm of network science appeals to a lot of research communities, as it constitutes a popular theoretical framework for studying the evolution of cooperation in social dilemmas. Recent research has shown that cooperation is markedly more resistant in interdependent networks, where traditional network reciprocity can be further enhanced due to various forms of interdependence between different network layers. However, the role of mobility in interdependent networks is yet to gain its well-deserved attention. Here we consider an interdependent network model, where individuals in each layer follow different evolutionary games, and where each player is considered as a mobile agent that can move locally inside its own layer to improve its fitness. Probabilistically, we also consider an imitation possibility from a neighbor on the other layer. We show that, by considering migration and stochastic imitation, further fascinating gateways to cooperation on interdependent networks can be observed. Notably, cooperation can be promoted on both layers, even if cooperation without interdependence would be improbable on one of the layers due to adverse conditions. Our results provide a rationale for engineering better social systems at the interface of networks and human decision making under testing dilemmas.

The influence of time delay in a chaotic cancer model.

The tumor-immune interactive dynamics is an evergreen subject that continues to draw attention from applied mathematicians and oncologists, especially so due to the unpredictable growth of tumor cells. In this respect, mathematical modeling promises insights that might help us to better understand this harmful aspect of our biology. With this goal, we here present and study a mathematical model that describes how tumor cells evolve and survive the brief encounter with the immune system, mediated by effector cells and host cells. We focus on the distribution of eigenvalues of the resulting ordinary differential equations, the local stability of the biologically feasible singular points, and the existence of Hopf bifurcations, whereby the time lag is used as the bifurcation parameter. We estimate analytically the length of the time delay to preserve the stability of the period-1 limit cycle, which arises at the Hopf bifurcation point. We also perform numerical simulations, which reveal the rich dynamics of the studied system. We show that the delayed model exhibits periodic oscillations as well as chaotic behavior, which are often indicators of long-term tumor relapse.

Fast regular firings induced by intra- and inter-time delays in two clustered neuronal networks.

In this paper, we consider two clustered neuronal networks with dense intra-synaptic links within each cluster and sparse inter-synaptic links between them. We focus on the effects of intra- and inter-time delays on the spiking regularity and timing in both clusters. With the aid of simulation results, we show that intermediate intra- and inter-time delays are able to separately induce fast regular firing - spiking activity with a high firing rate as well as a high spiking regularity. Moreover, when both intra- and inter-time delays are present, we find that fast regular firings are induced much more frequently than if only a single type of delay is present in the system. Our results indicate that appropriately adjusted intra- and inter-time delays can significantly facilitate fast regular firing in neuronal networks. Based on a detailed analysis, we conjecture that this is most likely when the largest value of common divisors of the intra- and inter-time delays falls into a range where fast regular firings are induced by suitable intra- or inter-time delays alone.