Validation, clinical utility and limitations of the Amsterdam-Oxford model for primary sclerosing cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Recently the Amsterdam-Oxford model (AOM) was introduced as a prognostic model to assess the risk of death and/or liver transplantation (LT) in primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). We aimed to validate and assess the utility of the AOM. METHODS: Clinical and laboratory data were collected from the time of PSC diagnosis until the last visit or time of LT or death. The AOM was calculated at yearly intervals following PSC diagnosis. Discriminatory performance was assessed by calculation of the C-statistic and prediction accuracy by comparing the predicted survival with the observed survival in Kaplan-Meier estimates. A grid search was performed to identify the most discriminatory AOM threshold. RESULTS: A total of 534 patients with PSC and a mean (SD) age of 39.2 (13.1) years were included. The diagnosis was large duct PSC in 466 (87%), PSC with features of autoimmune hepatitis in 52 (10%) and small-duct PSC in 16 (3%). During the median (IQR) follow-up of 7.8 (4.0-12.6) years, 167 patients underwent LT and 65 died. The median LT-free survival was 13.2 (11.8-14.7) years. The C-statistic of the AOM ranged from 0.67 at baseline to 0.75 at 5 years of follow-up. The difference between the predicted and observed survival ranged from -1.6% at 1 year to + 3.9% at 5 years of follow-up. Patients that developed AOM scores >2.0 were at significant risk of LT or death (time-dependent hazard ratio 4.09; 95% CI 2.99-5.61). CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort of patients with PSC, the AOM showed an adequate discriminative performance and good prediction accuracy at PSC diagnosis and during follow-up. This study further validates the AOM as a valuable risk stratification tool in PSC and extends its utility. LAY SUMMARY: In our study we assessed whether the Amsterdam-Oxford model (AOM) is able to correctly estimate the risk of liver transplantation or death in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). This model uses 7 objective and readily available variables to estimate prognosis for individual patients at the time of PSC diagnosis. The AOM may aid in patient counselling and timing of diagnostic procedures or therapeutic interventions for complications of liver disease. We confirm that the model works well at PSC diagnosis, but also when the AOM is recalculated at different timepoints during follow-up, greatly improving the applicability of the model in clinical practice and for individual patients.

Thyroid Dysfunction in Primary Biliary Cholangitis: A Comparative Study at Two European Centers.

OBJECTIVES: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is often associated with other autoimmune diseases, but little is known about the influence of thyroid disease (TD) on the natural history of PBC. Our aim is to analyze the association between PBC and TD, and the latter's impact on the natural history of PBC at two European centers. METHODS: The study involved 921 PBC patients enrolled between 1975 and 2015 in Padova (376 patients) and Barcelona (545 patients), with a mean follow-up of 126.9±91.7 months. Data were recorded on patients' histological stage at diagnosis, biochemical data, associated extrahepatic autoimmune conditions, and clinical events, including hepatic decompensation. RESULTS: A total of 150 patients (16.3%) had TD, including 94 patients (10.2%) with Hashimoto's thyroiditis; 15 (1.6%) with Graves' disease; 22 (2.4%) with multinodular goiter; 7 (0.8%) with thyroid cancer; and 12 (1.3%) with other thyroid conditions. The prevalence of different types of TD was similar in Padova and Barcelona, except for Graves' disease and thyroid cancer, which were more frequent in the Padova cohort (15.7 vs. 5.0%, and 8.6 vs. 1.3%, respectively, P<0.05). Overall, there were no differences between PBC patients with and without TD in terms of their histological stage at diagnosis, hepatic decompensation events, occurrence of HCC, or liver transplantation rate. The presence of associated TD was not associated with lower survival for PBC patients in either cohort. CONCLUSIONS: TDs, and autoimmune TD like Hashimoto's thyroiditis in particular, are often associated with PBC, but the presence of TD does not influence the rate of hepatic complications or the natural history of PBC.

Clinical and prognostic implications of acute onset of Autoimmune Hepatitis: An Italian multicentre study.

Autoimmune Hepatitis (AIH) can present under clinical profile as acute hepatitis of unexplained cause. We analyzed clinical, therapeutical and prognostic implications of AIH presenting as acute hepatitis in a cohort of patients admitted to 3 referral Centres in Italy. AIH onset was considered acute when transaminases were higher than 10 times the normal limit and/or bilirubin higher than 5 mg/ml (irrespectively from the histology, available only in 62% of cases). Among 479 patients diagnosed as AIH, 202 (43%) met the criteria of acute onset. This former group of patients on the basis of the histology has been subdivided in the "genuine" acute onset (83 pts) and acute "on chronic" onset (45 pts) At onset, clinical acute AIH showed significantly higher ALT, bilirubin and INR levels (p < 0.001 for all), lower albumin values (p = 0.001), similar IgG levels; Response to treatment was similar between the two groups. The progression to liver cirrhosis or its complications was significantly less frequent in acute onset AIH (13% vs. 22%, p = 0.02). The "genuine" acute patients showed a higher albumin serum levels (40 vs. 36, p = 0.001), lower INR levels (1.12 vs. 1.26, p = 0.002) and less tendency to the progression of liver disease (7% vs. 12%, p = NS) with respect to acute "on chronic" onset patients. Clinical acute hepatitis represents a common presentation of AIH, responds to standard immunosuppression regimen and would seem to be correlated with a better long-term prognosis.

New therapies for primary biliary cirrhosis.

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is a rare inflammatory liver disease for which ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) is the only therapy approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Patients with a biochemical response to UDCA therapy have a similar survival rate compared to the general population. However, up to 40% of PBC patients do not achieve a complete response to UDCA, have an increased risk of liver-related death and liver transplantation, and represent a persistent medical need for new therapies. Several novel drugs have recently been studied and show potential efficacy in PBC. Obeticholic acid, a farnesoid X receptor agonist, has been tested in phase II trials and initial results after 1 year in a phase III international trial suggest that it may be effective in achieving a biochemical response in approximately 40% of patients who do not completely respond to UDCA. Several small studies on fibrates have suggested that they may have efficacy, but larger studies are needed. Surprisingly, results of immunomodulators and biologics have not yet been able to demonstrate efficacy, but new approaches have shown promise in animal models and their translation to human clinical trials are awaited.