Viral and Host Factors Are Associated With Mortality in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Persistent mortality in adults hospitalized due to acute COVID-19 justifies pursuit of disease mechanisms and potential therapies. The aim was to evaluate which virus and host response factors were associated with mortality risk among participants in Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 (TICO/ACTIV-3) trials. METHODS: A secondary analysis of 2625 adults hospitalized for acute SARS-CoV-2 infection randomized to 1 of 5 antiviral products or matched placebo in 114 centers on 4 continents. Uniform, site-level collection of participant baseline clinical variables was performed. Research laboratories assayed baseline upper respiratory swabs for SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA and plasma for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antigen (viral Ag), and interleukin-6 (IL-6). Associations between factors and time to mortality by 90 days were assessed using univariate and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Viral Ag ≥4500 ng/L (vs <200 ng/L; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.07; 1.29-3.34), viral RNA (<35 000 copies/mL [aHR, 2.42; 1.09-5.34], ≥35 000 copies/mL [aHR, 2.84; 1.29-6.28], vs below detection), respiratory support (<4 L O2 [aHR, 1.84; 1.06-3.22]; ≥4 L O2 [aHR, 4.41; 2.63-7.39], or noninvasive ventilation/high-flow nasal cannula [aHR, 11.30; 6.46-19.75] vs no oxygen), renal impairment (aHR, 1.77; 1.29-2.42), and IL-6 >5.8 ng/L (aHR, 2.54 [1.74-3.70] vs ≤5.8 ng/L) were significantly associated with mortality risk in final adjusted analyses. Viral Ag, viral RNA, and IL-6 were not measured in real-time. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline virus-specific, clinical, and biological variables are strongly associated with mortality risk within 90 days, revealing potential pathogen and host-response therapeutic targets for acute COVID-19 disease.

Hybrid immunity and SARS-CoV-2 antibodies: results of the HEROES-RECOVER prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There are limited data on whether hybrid immunity differs by count and order of immunity-conferring events (SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 vaccination). From a cohort of health care personnel, first responders, and other frontline workers in six US states, we examined heterogeneity of the effect of hybrid immunity on SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels. METHODS: Exposures included event-count (sum of infections and vaccine doses) and event-order, categorized into seven permutations of vaccination and/or infection. Outcome was level of serum binding antibodies against receptor binding domain (RBD) of the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (total RBD-binding Ig), measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Mean antibody levels were examined up to 365 days after each of the 1st-7th events. RESULTS: Analysis included 5,793 participants measured from August 7, 2020 to April 15, 2023. Hybrid immunity from infection before one or two vaccine doses elicited modestly superior antibody responses after the 2nd and 3rd events (compared to infections or vaccine-doses alone). This superiority was not evident after the 4th and 5th events (additional doses). Among adults infected before vaccination, adjusted geometric mean ratios (95% CI) of anti-RBD early response (versus vaccinated-only) were 1.23 (1.14-1.33), 1.09 (1.03-1.14), 0.87 (0.81-0.94), and 0.99 (0.85-1.15) after the 2nd-5th events, respectively. Post-vaccination infections elicited superior responses: adjusted geometric mean ratios (95% CI) of anti-RBD early response (versus vaccinated-only) were: 0.93 (0.75-1.17), 1.11 (1.06-1.16), 1.17 (1.11-1.24), and 1.20 (1.07-1.34) after the 2nd-5th events, respectively. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Findings reflecting heterogeneity in antibody levels by permutations of infection and vaccination history could inform COVID-19 vaccination policy.

Long-term impact of immediate versus deferred antiretroviral therapy on kidney health in people with HIV.

People with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are at risk for chronic kidney disease (CKD) due to HIV and antiretroviral therapy (ART) nephrotoxicity. Immediate ART initiation reduces mortality and is now the standard of care, but the long-term impact of prolonged ART exposure on CKD is unknown. To evaluate this, the Strategic Timing of Antiretroviral Treatment (START) trial randomized 4,684 ART-naïve adults with CD4 cell count under 500 cells/mm3 to immediate versus deferred ART. We previously reported a small but statistically significantly greater decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over a median of 2.1 years in participants randomized to deferred versus immediate ART. Here, we compare the incidence of CKD events and changes in eGFR and urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR) in participants randomized to immediate versus deferred ART during extended follow-up. Over a median of 9.3 years, eight participants experienced kidney failure or kidney-related death, three in the immediate and five in the deferred ART arms, respectively. Over a median of five years of more comprehensive follow-up, the annual rate of eGFR decline was 1.19 mL/min/1.73m2/year, with no significant difference between treatment arms (difference deferred - immediate arm 0.055; 95% confidence interval -0.106, 0.217 mL/min/1.73m2). Results were similar in models adjusted for baseline covariates associated with CKD, including UACR and APOL1 genotype. Similarly, there was no significant difference between treatment arms in incidence of confirmed UACR 30 mg/g or more (odds ratio 1.13; 95% confidence interval 0.85, 1.51). Thus, our findings provide the most definitive evidence to date in support of the long-term safety of early ART with respect to kidney health.

A Neutralizing Monoclonal Antibody for Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19.

BACKGROUND: LY-CoV555, a neutralizing monoclonal antibody, has been associated with a decrease in viral load and the frequency of hospitalizations or emergency department visits among outpatients with coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Data are needed on the effect of this antibody in patients who are hospitalized with Covid-19. METHODS: In this platform trial of therapeutic agents, we randomly assigned hospitalized patients who had Covid-19 without end-organ failure in a 1:1 ratio to receive either LY-CoV555 or matching placebo. In addition, all the patients received high-quality supportive care as background therapy, including the antiviral drug remdesivir and, when indicated, supplemental oxygen and glucocorticoids. LY-CoV555 (at a dose of 7000 mg) or placebo was administered as a single intravenous infusion over a 1-hour period. The primary outcome was a sustained recovery during a 90-day period, as assessed in a time-to-event analysis. An interim futility assessment was performed on the basis of a seven-category ordinal scale for pulmonary function on day 5. RESULTS: On October 26, 2020, the data and safety monitoring board recommended stopping enrollment for futility after 314 patients (163 in the LY-CoV555 group and 151 in the placebo group) had undergone randomization and infusion. The median interval since the onset of symptoms was 7 days (interquartile range, 5 to 9). At day 5, a total of 81 patients (50%) in the LY-CoV555 group and 81 (54%) in the placebo group were in one of the two most favorable categories of the pulmonary outcome. Across the seven categories, the odds ratio of being in a more favorable category in the LY-CoV555 group than in the placebo group was 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.56 to 1.29; P = 0.45). The percentage of patients with the primary safety outcome (a composite of death, serious adverse events, or clinical grade 3 or 4 adverse events through day 5) was similar in the LY-CoV555 group and the placebo group (19% and 14%, respectively; odds ratio, 1.56; 95% CI, 0.78 to 3.10; P = 0.20). The rate ratio for a sustained recovery was 1.06 (95% CI, 0.77 to 1.47). CONCLUSIONS: Monoclonal antibody LY-CoV555, when coadministered with remdesivir, did not demonstrate efficacy among hospitalized patients who had Covid-19 without end-organ failure. (Funded by Operation Warp Speed and others; TICO ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04501978.).

Prevention and Attenuation of Covid-19 with the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 Vaccines.

BACKGROUND: Information is limited regarding the effectiveness of the two-dose messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and mRNA-1273 (Moderna) in preventing infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and in attenuating coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) when administered in real-world conditions. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study involving 3975 health care personnel, first responders, and other essential and frontline workers. From December 14, 2020, to April 10, 2021, the participants completed weekly SARS-CoV-2 testing by providing mid-turbinate nasal swabs for qualitative and quantitative reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) analysis. The formula for calculating vaccine effectiveness was 100% × (1 - hazard ratio for SARS-CoV-2 infection in vaccinated vs. unvaccinated participants), with adjustments for the propensity to be vaccinated, study site, occupation, and local viral circulation. RESULTS: SARS-CoV-2 was detected in 204 participants (5%), of whom 5 were fully vaccinated (≥14 days after dose 2), 11 partially vaccinated (≥14 days after dose 1 and <14 days after dose 2), and 156 unvaccinated; the 32 participants with indeterminate vaccination status (<14 days after dose 1) were excluded. Adjusted vaccine effectiveness was 91% (95% confidence interval [CI], 76 to 97) with full vaccination and 81% (95% CI, 64 to 90) with partial vaccination. Among participants with SARS-CoV-2 infection, the mean viral RNA load was 40% lower (95% CI, 16 to 57) in partially or fully vaccinated participants than in unvaccinated participants. In addition, the risk of febrile symptoms was 58% lower (relative risk, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.18 to 0.98) and the duration of illness was shorter, with 2.3 fewer days spent sick in bed (95% CI, 0.8 to 3.7). CONCLUSIONS: Authorized mRNA vaccines were highly effective among working-age adults in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection when administered in real-world conditions, and the vaccines attenuated the viral RNA load, risk of febrile symptoms, and duration of illness among those who had breakthrough infection despite vaccination. (Funded by the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.).

Stacked mutations in wheat homologues of rice SEMI-DWARF1 confer a novel semi-dwarf phenotype.

BACKGROUND: Semi-dwarfing alleles are used widely in cereals to confer improved lodging resistance and assimilate partitioning. The most widely deployed semi-dwarfing alleles in rice and barley encode the gibberellin (GA)-biosynthetic enzyme GA 20-OXIDASE2 (GA20OX2). The hexaploid wheat genome carries three homoeologous copies of GA20OX2, and because of functional redundancy, loss-of-function alleles of a single homoeologue would not be selected in wheat breeding programmes. Instead, approximately 70% of wheat cultivars carry gain-of-function mutations in REDUCED HEIGHT 1 (RHT1) genes that encode negative growth regulators and are degraded in response to GA. Semi-dwarf Rht-B1b or Rht-D1b alleles encode proteins that are insensitive to GA-mediated degradation. However, because RHT1 is expressed ubiquitously these alleles have pleiotropic effects that confer undesirable traits in some environments. RESULTS: We have applied reverse genetics to combine loss-of-function alleles in all three homoeologues of wheat GA20OX2 and its paralogue GA20OX1 and evaluated their performance in three years of field trials. ga20ox1 mutants exhibited a mild height reduction (approximately 3%) suggesting GA20OX1 plays a minor role in stem elongation in wheat. ga20ox2 mutants have reduced GA1 content and are 12-32% shorter than their wild-type segregants, comparable to the effect of the Rht-D1b 'Green Revolution' allele. The ga20ox2 mutants showed no significant negative effects on yield components in the spring wheat variety 'Cadenza'. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates that chemical mutagenesis can expand genetic variation in polyploid crops to uncover novel alleles despite the difficulty in identifying appropriate mutations for some target genes and the negative effects of background mutations. Field experiments demonstrate that mutations in GA20OX2 reduce height in wheat, but it will be necessary to evaluate the effect of these alleles in different genetic backgrounds and environments to determine their value in wheat breeding as alternative semi-dwarfing alleles.

Motoneuron-driven computational muscle modelling with motor unit resolution and subject-specific musculoskeletal anatomy.

The computational simulation of human voluntary muscle contraction is possible with EMG-driven Hill-type models of whole muscles. Despite impactful applications in numerous fields, the neuromechanical information and the physiological accuracy such models provide remain limited because of multiscale simplifications that limit comprehensive description of muscle internal dynamics during contraction. We addressed this limitation by developing a novel motoneuron-driven neuromuscular model, that describes the force-generating dynamics of a population of individual motor units, each of which was described with a Hill-type actuator and controlled by a dedicated experimentally derived motoneuronal control. In forward simulation of human voluntary muscle contraction, the model transforms a vector of motoneuron spike trains decoded from high-density EMG signals into a vector of motor unit forces that sum into the predicted whole muscle force. The motoneuronal control provides comprehensive and separate descriptions of the dynamics of motor unit recruitment and discharge and decodes the subject's intention. The neuromuscular model is subject-specific, muscle-specific, includes an advanced and physiological description of motor unit activation dynamics, and is validated against an experimental muscle force. Accurate force predictions were obtained when the vector of experimental neural controls was representative of the discharge activity of the complete motor unit pool. This was achieved with large and dense grids of EMG electrodes during medium-force contractions or with computational methods that physiologically estimate the discharge activity of the motor units that were not identified experimentally. This neuromuscular model advances the state-of-the-art of neuromuscular modelling, bringing together the fields of motor control and musculoskeletal modelling, and finding applications in neuromuscular control and human-machine interfacing research.

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the outcomes of HIV-exposed neonates: a Zimbabwean tertiary hospital experience.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has globally impacted health service access, delivery and resources. There are limited data regarding the impact on the prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) service delivery in low-resource settings. Neotree ( www.neotree.org ) combines data collection, clinical decision support and education to improve care for neonates. Here we evaluate impacts of COVID-19 on care for HIV-exposed neonates. METHODS: Data on HIV-exposed neonates admitted to the neonatal unit (NNU) at Sally Mugabe Central Hospital, Zimbabwe, between 01/06/2019 and 31/12/2021 were analysed, with pandemic start defined as 21/03/2020 and periods of industrial action (doctors (September 2019-January 2020) and nurses (June 2020-September 2020)) included, resulting in modelling during six time periods: pre-doctors' strike (baseline); doctors' strike; post-doctors' strike and pre-COVID; COVID and pre-nurses' strike; nurses' strike; post nurses' strike. Interrupted time series models were used to explore changes in indicators over time. RESULTS: Of 8,333 neonates admitted to the NNU, 904 (11%) were HIV-exposed. Mothers of 706/765 (92%) HIV-exposed neonates reported receipt of antiretroviral therapy (ART) during pregnancy. Compared to the baseline period when average admissions were 78 per week (95% confidence interval (CI) 70-87), significantly fewer neonates were admitted during all subsequent periods until after the nurses' strike, with the lowest average number during the nurses' strike (28, 95% CI 23-34, p < 0.001). Across all time periods excluding the nurses strike, average mortality was 20% (95% CI 18-21), but rose to 34% (95% CI 25, 46) during the nurses' strike. There was no evidence for heterogeneity (p > 0.22) in numbers of admissions or mortality by HIV exposure status. Fewer HIV-exposed neonates received a PCR test during the pandemic (23%) compared to the pre-pandemic periods (40%) (RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.41-0.84, p < 0.001). The proportion of HIV-exposed neonates who received antiretroviral prophylaxis during admission was high throughout, averaging between 84% and 95% in each time-period. CONCLUSION: While antiretroviral prophylaxis for HIV-exposed neonates remained high throughout, concerning data on low admissions and increased mortality, similar in HIV-exposed and unexposed neonates, and reduced HIV testing, suggest some aspects of care may have been compromised due to indirect effects of the pandemic.

Editorial Commentary: The entry point-trochlear groove (EP-TG) angle measures lateralization of the proximal trochlear entry point in patients with patellar instability.

Patellar instability is a complex orthopedic condition, occurring at an incidence of 23.2 per 100,000 person-years, and resulting from a combination of osseous and soft tissue factors. Osseous abnormalities associated with patellar instability include trochlear dysplasia and a lateralized tibial tubercle. Evaluation of these factors includes dysplasia evaluation using the DeJour classification, and the tibial-tubercle-to-trochlear-groove distance (TT-TG) to evaluate relative lateralization of the tibial tubercle. Three-dimensional modeling has advanced the evaluation of complex trochlea geometry and patellar tracking. Evaluation of the TT-TG distance through flexion, dubbed the radial TT-TG (rTT-TG) distance, shows rTT-TG distances are notably larger than traditional TT-TG measurements, with increasing grade of dysplasia associated with a more pronounced difference between measurements. The entry point-trochlear groove (EP-TG) angle may help more accurately describe the morphology of the proximal trochlea and aid in planning or assessing osseous correction with a trochleoplasty. The EP-TG angle may also be of use as a variable to determine when an isolated medial patellofemoral ligament reconstruction (MPFLR) may fail and require osseous correction. A lateralized proximal trochlea entry point is associated with recurrent patellar instability.

Isolated Medial Patellofemoral Ligament Reconstruction Results in Lower Failure and Complication Rates than Isolated Trochleoplasty and Tibial Tubercle Osteotomy: A Systematic Review.

PURPOSE: To evaluate outcomes and complications of isolated medial patellofemoral ligament (MPFLR), tibial tubercle osteotomy (TTO), and trochleoplasty for management of patellar instability. METHODS: A query of Scopus, PubMed, Google Scholar, Cochrane CENTRAL Register of Controlled Trials, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews was performed in accordance with 2020 PRISMA guidelines. Included studies reported clinical outcome data after isolated MPFLR, TTO, or trochleoplasty for patellar instability with a minimum of 12 months of follow-up. Meta-analysis and data aggregation was not performed. RESULTS: Thirty-six studies (5 trochleoplasty, 14 TTO, and 18 MPFLR) consisting of 1,389 patients (114 trochleoplasty, 374 TTO, and 1,001 MPFLR) were included. Risk of bias was assessed with the Methodological Index for Non-Randomized Studies (MINORS) score which ranged from 11-12 in trochleoplasty, 10-18 in TTO, and 8-18 in MPFLR studies. Patient reported outcome measures including Lysholm Score (trochleoplasty: 51.1-71 to 71-95y; TTO: 57-63.3 to 84-98; MPFLR: 37.4-59.1 to 74-92.5), Kujala Score (trochleoplasty: 56-71 to 78-92; TTO: 48.6-68 to 78-92; MPFLR: 53.3-60 to 81.5-92), VAS Pain Scale (trochleoplasty: 52 to 25; TTO: 54-76 to 14-27; MPFLR: 29 to 17, out of 100), and Tegner Score (TTO: 3-4 to 3-4; MPFLR: 2.5-6 to 4.9-5) improved after all surgeries. Failure rates ranged from 0-33.3% after MPFLR, 0-30.8% after TTO, and 5.3-40% after trochleoplasty. Complication rates ranged from 0-14.7% after MPFLR, 1.6-58.3% after TTO, and 8-26.3% after trochleoplasty. CONCLUSIONS: Isolated MPFLR, TTO, or trochleoplasty may be effective treatment options for patellar stabilization. While failure rates were highest after isolated trochleoplasty and complication rates were highest after TTO, these procedures are not interchangeable as each addresses a specific pathology. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: IV; Systematic Review of Level II-IV studies.

Effectiveness of Bivalent mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines in Preventing SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Children and Adolescents Aged 5 to 17 Years.

Importance: Bivalent mRNA COVID-19 vaccines were recommended in the US for children and adolescents aged 12 years or older on September 1, 2022, and for children aged 5 to 11 years on October 12, 2022; however, data demonstrating the effectiveness of bivalent COVID-19 vaccines are limited. Objective: To assess the effectiveness of bivalent COVID-19 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection and symptomatic COVID-19 among children and adolescents. Design, Setting, and Participants: Data for the period September 4, 2022, to January 31, 2023, were combined from 3 prospective US cohort studies (6 sites total) and used to estimate COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness among children and adolescents aged 5 to 17 years. A total of 2959 participants completed periodic surveys (demographics, household characteristics, chronic medical conditions, and COVID-19 symptoms) and submitted weekly self-collected nasal swabs (irrespective of symptoms); participants submitted additional nasal swabs at the onset of any symptoms. Exposure: Vaccination status was captured from the periodic surveys and supplemented with data from state immunization information systems and electronic medical records. Main Outcome and Measures: Respiratory swabs were tested for the presence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus using reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction. SARS-CoV-2 infection was defined as a positive test regardless of symptoms. Symptomatic COVID-19 was defined as a positive test and 2 or more COVID-19 symptoms within 7 days of specimen collection. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios for SARS-CoV-2 infection and symptomatic COVID-19 among participants who received a bivalent COVID-19 vaccine dose vs participants who received no vaccine or monovalent vaccine doses only. Models were adjusted for age, sex, race, ethnicity, underlying health conditions, prior SARS-CoV-2 infection status, geographic site, proportion of circulating variants by site, and local virus prevalence. Results: Of the 2959 participants (47.8% were female; median age, 10.6 years [IQR, 8.0-13.2 years]; 64.6% were non-Hispanic White) included in this analysis, 25.4% received a bivalent COVID-19 vaccine dose. During the study period, 426 participants (14.4%) had laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Among these 426 participants, 184 (43.2%) had symptomatic COVID-19, 383 (89.9%) were not vaccinated or had received only monovalent COVID-19 vaccine doses (1.38 SARS-CoV-2 infections per 1000 person-days), and 43 (10.1%) had received a bivalent COVID-19 vaccine dose (0.84 SARS-CoV-2 infections per 1000 person-days). Bivalent vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection was 54.0% (95% CI, 36.6%-69.1%) and vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic COVID-19 was 49.4% (95% CI, 22.2%-70.7%). The median observation time after vaccination was 276 days (IQR, 142-350 days) for participants who received only monovalent COVID-19 vaccine doses vs 50 days (IQR, 27-74 days) for those who received a bivalent COVID-19 vaccine dose. Conclusion and Relevance: The bivalent COVID-19 vaccines protected children and adolescents against SARS-CoV-2 infection and symptomatic COVID-19. These data demonstrate the benefit of COVID-19 vaccine in children and adolescents. All eligible children and adolescents should remain up to date with recommended COVID-19 vaccinations.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection History and Antibody Response to 3 Coronavirus Disease 2019 Messenger RNA Vaccine Doses.

BACKGROUND: Data on antibody kinetics are limited among individuals previously infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). From a cohort of healthcare personnel and other frontline workers in 6 US states, we assessed antibody waning after messenger RNA (mRNA) dose 2 and response to dose 3 according to SARS-CoV-2 infection history. METHODS: Participants submitted sera every 3 months, after SARS-CoV-2 infection, and after each mRNA vaccine dose. Sera were tested for antibodies and reported as area under the serial dilution curve (AUC). Changes in AUC values over time were compared using a linear mixed model. RESULTS: Analysis included 388 participants who received dose 3 by November 2021. There were 3 comparison groups: vaccine only with no known prior SARS-CoV-2 infection (n = 224); infection prior to dose 1 (n = 123); and infection after dose 2 and before dose 3 (n = 41). The interval from dose 2 and dose 3 was approximately 8 months. After dose 3, antibody levels rose 2.5-fold (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.2-3.0) in group 2 and 2.9-fold (95% CI = 2.6-3.3) in group 1. Those infected within 90 days before dose 3 (and median 233 days [interquartile range, 213-246] after dose 2) did not increase significantly after dose 3. CONCLUSIONS: A third dose of mRNA vaccine typically elicited a robust humoral immune response among those with primary vaccination regardless of SARS-CoV-2 infection >3 months prior to boosting. Those with infection <3 months prior to boosting did not have a significant increase in antibody concentrations in response to a booster.

Risk Factors for Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant among Previously Infected Frontline Workers.

In a cohort of essential workers in the United States previously infected with SARS-CoV-2, risk factors for reinfection included being unvaccinated, infrequent mask use, time since first infection, and being non-Hispanic Black. Protecting workers from reinfection requires a multipronged approach including up-to-date vaccination, mask use as recommended, and reduction in underlying health disparities.

Estimating the hospital costs of care for people living with HIV in England using routinely collected data.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the health care activity and associated hospital costs of caring for people living with HIV is an important component of assessing the cost effectiveness of new technologies and for budget planning. METHODS: Data collected between 2010 and 2017 from an English HIV treatment centre were combined with national reference costs to estimate the rate of hospital attendances and costs per quarter year, according to demographic and clinical factors. The final dataset included records for 1763 people living with HIV, which was analysed using negative binomial regression models and general estimating equations. RESULTS: People living with HIV experienced an unadjusted average of 0.028 (standard deviation [SD] 0.20) inpatient episodes per quarter, equivalent to one every 9 years, and 1.85 (SD 2.30) outpatient visits per quarter. The unadjusted mean quarterly cost per person with HIV (excluding antiretroviral drug costs) was £439 (SD 604). Outpatient appointments and inpatient episodes accounted for 88% and 6% of total costs, respectively. In adjusted models, low CD4 count was the strongest predictor of inpatient stays and outpatient visits. Low CD4 count and new patient status (having a first visit at the Trust in the last 6 months) were the factors that most increased estimated costs. Associations were weaker or less consistent for demographic factors (age, sex/sexual orientation/ethnicity). Sensitivity analyses suggest that the findings were generally robust to alternative parameter and modelling assumptions. CONCLUSION: A number of factors predicted hospital activity and costs, but CD4 cell count and new patient status were the strongest. The study results can be incorporated into future economic evaluations and budget impact assessments of HIV-related technologies.

Predictors of starting and stopping chemsex in men who have sex with men in England: findings from the AURAH2 prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Chemsex (the use of psychoactive drugs in sexual contexts) has been associated with HIV acquisition and other STIs, so there is benefit in identifying those most likely to start chemsex to offer risk reduction interventions such as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). To date, there have been no data from a longitudinal study analysing factors most associated with starting and stopping chemsex. METHODS: The prospective cohort study, Attitudes to and Understanding Risk of Acquisition of HIV over Time (AURAH2), collected 4 monthly and annual online questionnaire data from men who have sex with men (MSM) from 2015 to 2018. We investigate the association of sociodemographic factors, sexual behaviours and drug use with starting and stopping chemsex among 622 men who completed at least one follow-up questionnaire. Poisson models with generalised estimating equations were used to produce risk ratios (RRs) accounting for multiple starting or stopping episodes from the same individual. Multivariable analysis was adjusted for age group, ethnicity, sexual identity and university education. FINDINGS: In the multivariable analysis, the under 40 age group was significantly more likely to start chemsex by the next assessment (RR 1.79, 95% CI 1.12 to 2.86). Other factors which showed significant association with starting chemsex were unemployment (RR 2.10, 95% CI 1.02 to 4.35), smoking (RR 2.49, 95% CI 1.63 to 3.79), recent condomless sex (CLS), recent STI and postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) use in the past year (RR 2.10, 95% CI 1.33 to 3.30). Age over 40 (RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.51 to 0.99), CLS, and use of PEP (RR 0.64, 95% CI 0.47 to 0.86) and PrEP (RR 0.47, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.78) were associated with lower likelihood of stopping chemsex by the next assessment. INTERPRETATION: Knowledge of these results allows us to identify men most likely to start chemsex, thus providing an opportunity for sexual health services to intervene with a package of risk mitigation measures, especially PrEP use.

Understanding experiences of potential harm among MSM (cis and trans) using HIV self-testing in the SELPHI randomised controlled trial in England and Wales: a mixed-methods study.

BACKGROUND: The potential of HIV self-testing (HIVST) to cause harm is a concern hindering widespread implementation. The aim of this paper is to understand the relationship between HIVST and harm in SELPHI (An HIV Self-testing Public Health Intervention), the largest randomised trial of HIVST in a high-income country to date. METHODS: 10 111 cis and trans men who have sex with men (MSM) recruited online (geolocation social/sexual networking apps, social media), aged 16+, reporting previous anal intercourse and resident in England or Wales were first randomised 60/40 to baseline HIVST (baseline testing, BT) or not (no baseline testing, nBT) (randomisation A). BT participants reporting negative baseline test, sexual risk at 3 months and interest in further HIVST were randomised to three-monthly HIVST (repeat testing, RT) or not (no repeat testing, nRT) (randomisation B). All received an exit survey collecting data on harms (to relationships, well-being, false results or being pressured/persuaded to test). Nine participants reporting harm were interviewed in-depth about their experiences in an exploratory substudy; qualitative data were analysed narratively. RESULTS: Baseline: predominantly cis MSM, 90% white, 88% gay, 47% university educated and 7% current/former pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) users. Final survey response rate was: nBT=26% (1056/4062), BT=45% (1674/3741), nRT=41% (471/1147), RT=50% (581/1161).Harms were rare and reported by 4% (n=138/3691) in exit surveys, with an additional two false positive results captured in other study surveys. 1% reported harm to relationships and to well-being in BT, nRT and RT combined. In all arms combined, being pressured or persuaded to test was reported by 1% (n=54/3678) and false positive results in 0.7% (n=34/4665).Qualitative analysis revealed harms arose from the kit itself (technological harms), the intervention (intervention harms) or from the social context of the participant (socially emergent harms). Intervention and socially emergent harms did not reduce HIVST acceptability, whereas technological harms did. DISCUSSION: HIVST harms were rare but strategies to link individuals experiencing harms with psychosocial support should be considered for HIVST scale-up. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN20312003.

Pilot feasibility testing of biomathematical model recommendations for personalising sleep timing in shift workers.

Sleep disturbances and circadian disruption play a central role in adverse health, safety, and performance outcomes in shift workers. While biomathematical models of sleep and alertness can be used to personalise interventions for shift workers, their practical implementation is undertested. This study tested the feasibility of implementing two biomathematical models-the Phillips-Robinson Model and the Model for Arousal Dynamics-in 28 shift-working nurses, 14 in each group. The study examined the overlap and adherence between model recommendations and sleep behaviours, and changes in sleep following the implementation of recommendations. For both groups combined, the mean (SD) percentage overlap between when a model recommended an individual to sleep and when sleep was obtained was 73.62% (10.24%). Adherence between model recommendations and sleep onset and offset times was significantly higher with the Model of Arousal Dynamics compared to the Phillips-Robinson Model. For the Phillips-Robinson model, 27% of sleep onset and 35% of sleep offset times were within ± 30 min of model recommendations. For the Model of Arousal Dynamics, 49% of sleep onset, and 35% of sleep offset times were within ± 30 min of model recommendations. Compared to pre-study, significant improvements were observed post-study for sleep disturbance (Phillips-Robinson Model), and insomnia severity and sleep-related impairments (Model of Arousal Dynamics). Participants reported that using a digital, automated format for the delivery of sleep recommendations would enable greater uptake. These findings provide a positive proof-of-concept for using biomathematical models to recommend sleep in operational contexts.

Estimation of the firing behaviour of a complete motoneuron pool by combining electromyography signal decomposition and realistic motoneuron modelling.

Our understanding of the firing behaviour of motoneuron (MN) pools during human voluntary muscle contractions is currently limited to electrophysiological findings from animal experiments extrapolated to humans, mathematical models of MN pools not validated for human data, and experimental results obtained from decomposition of electromyographical (EMG) signals. These approaches are limited in accuracy or provide information on only small partitions of the MN population. Here, we propose a method based on the combination of high-density EMG (HDEMG) data and realistic modelling for predicting the behaviour of entire pools of motoneurons in humans. The method builds on a physiologically realistic model of a MN pool which predicts, from the experimental spike trains of a smaller number of individual MNs identified from decomposed HDEMG signals, the unknown recruitment and firing activity of the remaining unidentified MNs in the complete MN pool. The MN pool model is described as a cohort of single-compartment leaky fire-and-integrate (LIF) models of MNs scaled by a physiologically realistic distribution of MN electrophysiological properties and driven by a spinal synaptic input, both derived from decomposed HDEMG data. The MN spike trains and effective neural drive to muscle, predicted with this method, have been successfully validated experimentally. A representative application of the method in MN-driven neuromuscular modelling is also presented. The proposed approach provides a validated tool for neuroscientists, experimentalists, and modelers to infer the firing activity of MNs that cannot be observed experimentally, investigate the neuromechanics of human MN pools, support future experimental investigations, and advance neuromuscular modelling for investigating the neural strategies controlling human voluntary contractions.

Behaviour changes following HIV diagnosis among men who have sex with men in the era of treatment as prevention: data from a prospective study.

We described the longitudinal changes in sexual behaviour and associated factors among newly diagnosed with HIV men who have sex with men participating in a prospective observational study from a London HIV clinic (2015-2018). Participants self-completed questionnaires at baseline, months 3 and 12. Information collected included socio-demographic, sexual behaviour, health, lifestyle and social support. Trends in sexual behaviours over one year following diagnosis and associated factors were assessed using generalized estimating equations with logit link. Condomless sex (CLS) dropped from 62.2% at baseline to 47.6% at month-three but increased again to 61.8% at month-12 (p-trend = 0.790). Serodiscordant-CLS increased between month-three and month-12 (from 13.1% to 35.6%, p-trend < 0.001). The prevalence of serodiscordant-CLS with high risk of transmitting to their partners at month-three was 10.7%. CLS was higher among men who reported recreational drug use (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) 3.03, 95%CI 1.47-6.24, p = 0.003), those with undetectable viral load (aOR 2.17, 95%CI 1.22-3.84, p = 0.008) and those who agreed with a statement "condoms are not necessary when HIV viral load is undetectable" (aOR 3.41, 95%CI 1.58-7.38, p = 0.002). MSM continued to engage in CLS after HIV diagnosis, which coincided with U = U publications and increased throughout the study.