Projections of primary hip arthroplasty in Germany until 2040.

Background and purpose - The number of hip replacements in Germany has increased considerably during the last 2 decades but lately levelled off with no significant increase in operation rates. We analyzed the future trend of hip arthroplasty and projected the number of primary hip replacements that will be performed in Germany until 2040. Patients and methods - We used prevalence data of hip arthroplasty patients from 2010 to 2016 from the nationwide inpatient statistics and population forecasts from the German Federal Bureau of Statistics up to the year 2040. We used Poisson regression to estimate the expected annual number of arthroplasty surgeries with calendar year and patient age as covariates to account for differences among age groups and changes over time. Results - The number of primary hip replacements performed in Germany in 2040 was estimated to grow by 27% to 288 x 103 (95% CI 250 x 103-332 x 103) from 2010. Projected counts were highest for patients aged 60 to 70 years. The estimated incidence rate was projected to 360 (95% CI 312-414) per 100,000 residents. However, incidence rates for individual age classes were found to be constant with a slight decrease over time for individual age classes. Interpretation - Our findings suggest a growth in the total hip arthroplasty count whereas incidence rate remained constant over age classes. We consider the future demographic change to an older population as well as the increasing life expectancy to be the main reasons for the increasing patient numbers rather than a general increase in the operation frequency.

Clinical outcomes of relapsed and refractory Hodgkin lymphoma patients after contemporary first-line treatment: a German Hodgkin Study Group analysis.

To evaluate patterns of rrHL after contemporary first-line treatment we studied 409 patients with first rrHL (HD13: n = 87, HD14: n = 118, HD15: n = 188, HDR3i: n = 51) at a median age of 37.4 years (18.4-76.8) from the GHSG database. Time to first relapse was ≤12 months in 49% and stage III/IV rrHL present in 52% of patients. In total, 291 patients received high-dose chemotherapy and autologous stem-cell transplantation (ASCT) and intended ASCT failed in 38 patients. ASCT was primarily not intended in 80 patients largely due to low risk disease or age/comorbidities. Overall, 10-year progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS) rates after first relapse were 48.2% (95% CI 41.9-54.2%) and 59.4% (95% CI 53.0-65.2%), respectively, with significant differences between subgroups. Inferior survival was observed with no ASCT due to advanced age/comorbidities (five-year PFS 36.2%, 95% CI 17.7-55.0%) or failure of salvage therapy (five-year PFS 36.3%, 95% CI 19.7-53.2%). Similarly, presence of primary refractory disease or stage IV at rrHL conferred inferior survival. In patients with low-risk disease, however, survival appeared favorable even without ASCT (10 y PFS 72.6%, 95% CI 53.7-84.8%). We herein confirm the curative potential of current rrHL treatments providing a robust benchmark to evaluate novel therapeutic strategies in rrHL. Approximately 50% of rrHL patients experienced a consecutive relapse.

The variation of arthroplasty procedures in the OECD Countries: analysis of possible influencing factors by linear regression.

Total hip and knee replacements (THR, TKR) are among the most common surgeries but incidence rates vary between OECD countries. Previous studies suggested economic factors to be most influential but did not take into account health care system related factors. Hence we analysed the possible influence of healthcare system related factors on the operation rate. We used OECD data for 27 countries and calculated Age-Standardized Incidence Rates (ASIR). In order to determine possible explanatory variables on the ASIRs we performed a stepwise blockwise linear regression. The ASIR of hip and knee replacement varies widely. We identified statistically significant determinants which influence the ASIR of THR in a positive manner: incidence and length of stay of coxarthrosis, ASIR of knee replacement, health expenditures, number of nurses and an etatistic social insurance. Diabetes prevalence, gross domestic product and number of doctor consultations, however, have a negative influence on the ASIR. TKR rate is positively influenced by health expenditures and incidence rate of gonarthrosis, negatively by the number of primary practitioners. We observed strong geographic disparities in the frequency of THR and THR that cannot be explained by age structure of the countries. Economic factors seem to play a secondary role while healthcare related factors have a greater influence.

C-reactive protein (CRP) and long-term air pollution with a focus on ultrafine particles.

BACKGROUND: Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution contributes to the global burden of disease by particularly affecting cardiovascular (CV) causes of death. We investigated the association between particle number concentration (PNC), a marker for ultrafine particles, and other air pollutants and high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) as a potential link between air pollution and CV disease. METHODS: We cross-sectionally analysed data from the second follow up (2013 and 2014) of the German KORA baseline survey which was conducted in 1999-2001. Residential long-term exposure to PNC and various other size fractions of particulate matter (PM10 with size of <10 µm in aerodynamic diameter, PMcoarse 2.5-10 µm or PM2.5 < 2.5 µm, respectively), soot (PM2.5abs: absorbance of PM2.5), nitrogen oxides (nitrogen dioxide NO2 or oxides NOx, respectively) and ozone (O3) were estimated by land-use regression models. Associations between annual air pollution concentrations and hs-CRP were modeled in 2252 participants using linear regression models adjusted for several confounders. Potential effect-modifiers were examined by interaction terms and two-pollutant models were calculated for pollutants with Spearman inter-correlation <0.70. RESULTS: Single pollutant models for PNC, PM10, PMcoarse, PM2.5abs, NO2 and NOx showed positive but non-significant associations with hs-CRP. For PNC, an interquartile range (2000 particles/cm3) increase was associated with a 3.6% (95% CI: -0.9%, 8.3%) increase in hs-CRP. A null association was found for PM2.5. Effect estimates were higher for women, non-obese participants, for participants without diabetes and without a history of cardiovascular disease whereas ex-smokers showed lower estimates compared to smokers or non-smokers. For O3, the dose-response function suggested a non-linear relationship. In two-pollutant models, adjustment for PM2.5 strengthened the effect estimates for PNC and PM10 (6.3% increase per 2000 particles/cm3 [95% CI: 0.4%; 12.5%] and 7.3% per 16.5 µg/m3 [95% CI: 0.4%; 14.8%], respectively). CONCLUSION: This study adds to a scarce but growing body of literature showing associations between long-term exposure to ultrafine particles and hs-CRP, one of the most intensely studied blood biomarkers for cardiovascular health. Our results highlight the role of ultrafine particles within the complex mixture of ambient air pollution and their inflammatory potential.