How will technology change people's home care in the next 20 years? A strategic foresight study.

The rapid expansion of home health care has raised many unresolved issues and will have far-reaching consequences that can only be overcome with a holistic approach to help build and use collective intelligence in a structured, systemic way to anticipate developments. In this frame, the set of issues covered by the human factors research field will significantly impact the safety, quality, and effectiveness of home health care. However, only with a gaze of strategic foresight will we be capable of exploring, anticipating, and shaping the future. A group of researchers from the Italian Society of Ergonomics and Human Factors (SIE) has developed a road map to help all the stakeholders involved in this process.

A Strategic Foresight study was conducted to define a preferred scenario of home care in the next 20 years. A hybrid survey method called Human-Centred Foresight was applied. The results achieved in the study show a possible scenario of home care that can define medium- and long-term goals from today until 2041.

Non-tuberculous mycobacteria: epidemiological pattern in a reference laboratory and risk factors associated with pulmonary disease.

The diseases caused by non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM), in both AIDS and non-AIDS populations, are increasingly recognized worldwide. Although the American Thoracic Society published the guidelines for diagnosis of NTM pulmonary disease (NTM-PD), the diagnosis is still difficult. In the first part of the study, we collected data on NTM isolates in the Mycobacteriology Laboratory of Careggi Hospital (Florence, Italy) and analysed the epidemiological data of NTM isolates. Then, to analyse the risk factors associated to NTM-PD, we studied the presence of ATS/IDSA criteria for NTM-PD in patients who had at least one positive respiratory sample for NTM and were admitted to the Infectious Disease Unit and the Section of Respiratory Medicine. We selected 88 patients with available full clinical data and, according to ATS/IDSA criteria, classified 15 patients (17%) as NTM-PD cases and 73 as colonized patients (83%). When comparing colonized and NTM-PD patients we did not find significant differences of age, gender and comorbidity. We observed that Mycobacterium avium and M. intracellulare were statistically associated with NTM-PD (P = 0·001) whereas M. xenopi was statistically associated with colonization. Although the number of studied patients is limited, our study did not identify risk factors for NTM-PD that could help clinicians to discriminate between colonization and disease. We underline the need of close monitoring of NTM-infected patients until the diagnosis is reasonably excluded. Further larger prospective studies and new biological markers are needed to identify new useful tools for the diagnosis of NTM-PD.

Whole-lung volume and density in spirometrically-gated inspiratory and expiratory CT in systemic sclerosis: correlation with static volumes at pulmonary function tests.

BACKGROUND: Spiral low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) permits to measure whole-lung volume and density in a single breath-hold. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the agreement between static lung volumes measured with LDCT and pulmonary function test (PFT) and the correlation between the LDCT volumes and lung density in restrictive lung disease. DESIGN: Patients with Systemic Sclerosis (SSc) with (n = 24) and without (n = 16) pulmonary involvement on sequential thin-section CT and patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)(n = 29) underwent spirometrically-gated LDCT at 90% and 10% of vital capacity to measure inspiratory and expiratory lung volumes and mean lung attenuation (MLA). Total lung capacity and residual volume were measured the same day of CT. RESULTS: Inspiratory [95% limits of agreement (95% LoA)--43.8% and 39.2%] and expiratory (95% LoA -45.8% and 37.1%) lung volumes measured on LDCT and PFT showed poor agreement in SSc patients with pulmonary involvement, whereas they were in substantial agreement (inspiratory 95% LoA -14.1% and 16.1%; expiratory 95% LoA -13.5% and 23%) in SSc patients without pulmonary involvement and in inspiratory scans only (95% LoA -23.1% and 20.9%) of COPD patients. Inspiratory and expiratory LDCT volumes, MLA and their deltas differentiated both SSc patients with or without pulmonary involvement from COPD patients. LDCT lung volumes and density were not correlated in SSc patients with pulmonary involvement, whereas they did correlate in SSc without pulmonary involvement and in COPD patients. CONCLUSIONS: In restrictive lung disease due to SSc there is poor agreement between static lung volumes measured using LDCT and PFT and the relationship between volume and density values on CT is altered.

Is incidentally detected pulmonary embolism in cancer patients less severe? A case-control study.

Incidental pulmonary embolism (PE) in cancer patients is usually thought to be of mild degree. We investigated the severity of PE and evaluated the potential of raising the suspicion of PE in such patients. The computed tomography (CT) extent of PE was evaluated in 19 consecutive unsuspected and 19 randomly selected symptomatic patients. A clinical pattern useful for suspecting PE was also searched. On CT, number of embolized vessels, location of emboli, and simple instrumental findings were not different in the two groups. PE is not less severe in unsuspected cancer patients; moreover, PE may be clinically suspected in such patients.

Ground deformation reveals the scale-invariant conduit dynamics driving explosive basaltic eruptions.

The mild activity of basaltic volcanoes is punctuated by violent explosive eruptions that occur without obvious precursors. Modelling the source processes of these sudden blasts is challenging. Here, we use two decades of ground deformation (tilt) records from Stromboli volcano to shed light, with unprecedented detail, on the short-term (minute-scale) conduit processes that drive such violent volcanic eruptions. We find that explosive eruptions, with source parameters spanning seven orders of magnitude, all share a common pre-blast ground inflation trend. We explain this exponential inflation using a model in which pressure build-up is caused by the rapid expansion of volatile-rich magma rising from depth into a shallow (<400 m) resident magma conduit. We show that the duration and amplitude of this inflation trend scales with the eruption magnitude, indicating that the explosive dynamics obey the same (scale-invariant) conduit process. This scale-invariance of pre-explosion ground deformation may usher in a new era of short-term eruption forecasting.

Author Correction: Reliability of Total Grain-Size Distribution of Tephra Deposits.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Induced sputum in systemic sclerosis interstitial lung disease: comparison to healthy controls and bronchoalveolar lavage.

BACKGROUND: Induced sputum (IS) is a noninvasive tool, which can be used to collect cellular and soluble materials from lung airways. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate if IS may be a useful and safe tool for the detection of airway inflammation in patients with interstitial lung disease (ILD) in systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: Sixty-eight patients with SSc and ILD as well as 18 healthy individuals (controls) were selected and submitted to IS examination. In 34 of 68 patients with SSc, bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) was also performed. Safety of IS was assessed by comparison of forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV(1)), FEV(1)/forced vital capacity ratio and peak expiratory flow before and after the IS procedure. Cell composition in samples collected by BAL and IS was correlated, and IS total and differential cell count in SSc patients and controls were compared. RESULTS: The total number of cells was significantly higher in IS samples of SSc patients compared to those of healthy controls. Mean percentage of neutrophils was also higher in SSc patients (41.79 +/- 23.89 vs. 27.37 +/- 17.90), as well as lymphocytes (17.42 +/- 19.70 vs. 3.13 +/- 2.28) and eosinophils (2.35 +/- 4.43 vs. 0.41 +/- 0.46). On the other hand, mean percentage of macrophages was higher in healthy individuals (69.10 +/- 19.15 vs. 36.96 +/- 20.68). In fluid recovered by BAL, the most frequent cells were macrophages (67.89% +/- 17.26), while neutrophils (14.77 +/- 17.18%) and lymphocytes (15.62 +/- 13.46%) were less frequent and eosinophils (1.66 +/- 2.08%) were rare. A similar pattern of cell composition was found in IS samples (41.15 +/- 21.67% of macrophages, 39.72 +/- 23.15% of neutrophils, 15.28 +/- 19.46% of lymphocytes and 2.56 +/- 5.03% of eosinophils). Strength of correlation between BAL and IS was significant for macrophages and neutrophils. After IS procedure was performed, improvement of FEV(1) (mean value before IS was 85.09 +/- 14.44 and 88.93 +/- 16.40 after IS) and FEV(1)/forced vital capacity (mean value before IS was 98.53 +/- 12.11 and 105.22 +/- 10.78 after IS) was observed. CONCLUSION: The IS method may allow a noninvasive assessment of cell composition in airway fluid and may contribute to the better understanding of upper/medium airway inflammation in SSc. Future studies are needed to verify whether IS can replace invasive procedures for the detection and monitoring of lung inflammation in SSc.

Reliability of Total Grain-Size Distribution of Tephra Deposits.

Total Grain-Size Distribution (TGSD) of tephra deposits is key to the characterization of explosive volcanism, plume-dispersal modeling, and magmatic fragmentation studies. Nonetheless, various aspects that includes deposit exposure and data fitting make its determination extremely complex and affect its representativeness. In order to shed some lights on the reliability of derived TGSDs, we examine a large TGSD dataset in combination with a sensitivity analysis of sampling strategies. These analyses are based both on a well-studied tephra deposit and on synthetic deposits associated with a variety of initial eruptive and atmospheric conditions. Results demonstrate that TGSDs can be satisfactorily fitted by four distributions (lognormal, Rosin-Rammler, and power-law based either on the absolute or cumulative number of particles) that capture different distribution features. In particular, the Rosin-Rammler distribution best reproduces both the median and the tails of the TGSDs. The accuracy of reconstructed TGSDs is strongly controlled by the number and distribution of the sampling points. We conclude that TGSDs should be critically assessed based on dedicated sampling strategies and should be fitted by one of the mentioned theoretical distributions depending on the specific study objective (e.g., tephra-deposit characterization, physical description of explosive eruptions, tephra-dispersal modeling).

Pirfenidone and Nintedanib in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: Real-life experience in an Italian referral centre.

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis has a median survival time after diagnosis of 2-5 years. The main goal of treating IPF is to stabilize or reduce the rate of disease progression. Nintedanib and Pirfenidone have been a breakthrough in the management of IPF. Here we evaluated the effectiveness of Pirfenidone and Nintedanib in a population of IPF patients diagnosed in the last 12 months at Florence ILD Referral Centre. METHODS: In the last 12 months, 82 IPF patients (66 male, mean age 78.3±23.8 years) were diagnosed and started antifibrotic therapy with Pirfenidone or Nintedanib. Their clinical and functional details were analyzed retrospectively at time 0 and after 6 and 12 months of therapy. RESULTS: The median age of the patients treated with Nintedanib was higher than that of the Pirfenidone group (p<0.0001). The most common symptoms at disease onset were exertional dyspnoea and dry cough with no differences between the two groups (p<0.05). All IPF patients manifested bibasal crackles at the time of diagnosis. No significant differences in FVC, FEV1, TLC and DLCO were found at time 0 or after 6 months between patients treated with Pirfenidone and Nintedanib (p>0.05). After 1 year, lung function test parameters of patients treated with Pirfenidone had remained stable from baseline. DISCUSSION: This study emphasizes that both antifibrotic drugs appeared to be a good therapeutic choice in terms of functional stabilization, also in older patients.

Geoarchaeological Evidence of Middle-Age Tsunamis at Stromboli and Consequences for the Tsunami Hazard in the Southern Tyrrhenian Sea.

Large-scale landslides at volcanic islands are one of the most dangerous geological phenomena, able to generate tsunamis whose effects can propagate far from the source. However, related deposits are scarcely preserved on-land in the geologic records, and are often difficult to be interpreted. Here we show the discovery of three unprecedented well-preserved tsunami deposits related to repeated flank collapses of the volcanic island of Stromboli (Southern Italy) occurred during the Late Middle Ages. Based on carbon datings, on stratigraphic, volcanological and archaeological evidence, we link the oldest, highest-magnitude investigated tsunami to the following rapid abandonment of the island which was inhabited at that time, contrary than previously thought. The destructive power of this event is also possibly related to a huge marine storm that devastated the ports of Naples in 1343 (200 km north of Stromboli) described by the famous writer Petrarch. The portrayed devastation can be potentially attributed to the arrival of multiple tsunami waves generated by a major landslide in Stromboli island, confirming the hypothetical hazard of these phenomena at a regional scale.

Outcomes for COPD pharmacological trials: from lung function to biomarkers.

The American Thoracic Society/European Respiratory Society jointly created a Task Force on "Outcomes for COPD pharmacological trials: from lung function to biomarkers" to inform the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease research community about the possible use and limitations of current outcomes and markers when evaluating the impact of a pharmacological therapy. Based on their review of the published literature, the following document has been prepared with individual sections that address specific outcomes and markers, and a final section that summarises their recommendations.

Gas exchange and breathing pattern in women with postmenopausal bone fragility.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the relationship between bone fragility and respiratory function. We hypothesized that women with osteoporosis or osteopenia, without cardio-pulmonary disease, have perturbations in the pattern of breathing and gas exchange. METHODS: In 44 women with bone fragility (BF, T score: < -1), and 20 anthropomorphically-matched control women (T score > -1) we compared pulmonary function tests, central respiratory drive (mouth occlusion pressure or P 0.1), pattern of breathing using optoelectronic plethysmograph and arterial blood gases at rest. RESULTS: Static pulmonary function was similar in BF subjects and controls. However, the arterial blood gas measurements differed significantly. The arterial pH was significantly higher in BF subjects than in controls (P < 0.001). The partial pressure of carbon dioxide (PaCO2) and oxygen (PaO2) in arterial blood were significantly lower in BF subjects than controls (P < 0.001 and P = 0.009, respectively). The BF subjects had a shorter inspiratory fraction compared with controls (P = 0.036). Moreover, T-scores were significantly inversely correlated with the alveolar-arterial gradient of oxygen (r = -0.5; P = 0.0003) and the arterial pH (r = -0.4; P = 0.002), and positively correlated with arterial PaO2 (r = 0.3; P = 0.01) and PaCO2 (r = 0.4; P = 0.002) among all subjects. CONCLUSION: In the absence of known cardio-pulmonary disease, BF is associated with statistically significant perturbations in gas exchange and alterations in the pattern of breathing including shortening of the inspiratory time.

Fatal peripheral airway cystic disease in a young woman.

Diffuse cystic transformation of both lungs was rapidly fatal in a 33-year-old woman. This disorder, a rare congenital condition in infants, has apparently not been described in adulthood.

Value of transthoracic echocardiography in the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism: results of a prospective study in unselected patients.

PURPOSE: Echocardiography is advocated by some as a useful diagnostic test for patients with suspected pulmonary embolism (PE), but its diagnostic accuracy is unknown. The present study was undertaken to determine prospectively the sensitivity and specificity of transthoracic echocardiography in the diagnosis of PE. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: We examined 110 consecutive patients with suspected PE. The study protocol included assessment of clinical probability, echocardiography, and perfusion lung scanning. Pulmonary angiography was performed in all patients with abnormal scans. As echocardiographic criteria to diagnose acute PE, we used the presence of any two of the following: right ventricular (RV) hypokinesis, RV end-diastolic diameter >27 mm (without RV wall hypertrophy), or tricuspid regurgitation velocity >2.7 m/sec. Clinical estimates of PE served as pretest probabilities in calculating, after echocardiography, the posttest probabilities of PE. RESULTS: Pulmonary angiography confirmed PE in 43 (39%) of 110 patients. Echocardiographic diagnostic criteria for PE yielded a sensitivity of 56% and a specificity of 90%. For pretest probabilities of 10%, 50%, and 90%, the posttest probabilities of PE conditioned by a positive echocardiogram were 38%, 85%, and 98%, respectively. The posttest probabilities of PE conditioned by a negative echocardiogram were 5%, 33%, and 81%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In unselected patients with suspected PE, transthoracic echocardiography fails to identify some 50% of patients with angiographically proven PE. Although echocardiographic findings of RV strain, paired with a high clinical likelihood, support a diagnosis of PE, the transthoracic echocardiography has to have a better sensitivity to be used as a screening test to rule out PE.

Chest tomography by gamma camera and external gamma source: concise communication.

To obtain tomographic images of the chest, we used a large-field gamma camera to detect the 90 degrees scattered radiations (180 keV) from a linear source of Hg-203 (279 keV). The primary beam traveling across the chest is scattered according to the relative density of tissues. Chest sections can be visualized at different depths on frontal and sagittal planes. The resolution of the technic is that of the gamma camera.

The value of portable chest roentgenography in adult respiratory distress syndrome. Comparison with computed tomography.

In 17 patients with adult respiratory distress syndrome, we used data derived from computed tomographic (CT) scan densitometric analysis to validate the value of portable chest roentgenograms in objectively estimating the amount of pulmonary edema. Chest roentgenograms and CT scans were taken in the same ventilatory conditions (apnea at 10 cm H2O of positive end-expiratory pressure [PEEP]); blood gas samples and hemodynamic parameters were collected at the same time. Roentgenographic analysis was undertaken by independent observers using two standardized scoring systems proposed in the literature. CT scan analysis was performed using the CT number frequency distribution and the gas lung volume (measured by helium dilution technique) to estimate quantitatively the lung density, the lung weight, and the percentage of normally aerated and nonaerated tissue. Knowing the mean CT number of the pulmonary parenchyma in a group of normal subjects, we also inferred the ideal lung weight expected in the study population and computed the excess tissue mass as the difference between actual and ideal lung weight. Both the roentgenographic scoring systems showed direct correlation with the pulmonary impairment as detected by CT scan densitometric analysis (CT number, percentage of nonaerated tissue, lung weight, and excess tissue mass; p less than 0.01) and inverse relation with the percentage of normally aerated tissue (p less than 0.01). We also found a relationship between roentgenographic scores and the impairment in gas exchange as detected by shunt fraction (p less than 0.05). We conclude that standardized reading of portable chest roentgenograms by means of scoring tables is a valuable tool in estimating the amount of pulmonary edema in a patient with adult respiratory distress syndrome.

Resection of single brain metastasis in non-small-cell lung cancer: prognostic factors.

Combined resection of primary non-small-cell lung cancer and single brain metastasis is reportedly superior to other treatments in prolonging survival and disease-free interval. To identify prognostic factors that influenced survival we reviewed clinical records and follow-up data of 52 consecutive patients with non-small-cell lung cancer and single brain metastasis who had been evaluated for combined lung and brain operation: 19 had synchronous and 33 metachronous non-small-cell lung cancer and single brain metastasis. Seven patients were excluded from combined operation because of either early brain relapse after craniotomy or single brain metastasis localization in deep brain structures. Forty-one of the 45 patients who underwent combined operation had complete remission of neurologic symptoms. Actuarial 5-year survival from the second surgical intervention was 16% (median 19 months, range 1 to 104 months). N0 status and lobectomy were the only variables associated with longer survival. Actuarial 5-year survivals in patients with synchronous and metachronous presentation were 6.6% and 19%, respectively. In patients with metachronous presentation the length of survival was significantly associated with N0 status, lobectomy, and interval between lung and brain operation equal to or longer than 14.5 months. The subset of patients with N0 status and interval between operations longer than 14.5 months had a 61% 5-year survival. None of the patients with N1-2 disease and shorter interval between operations was alive at 20 months. These data indicate that prognostic factors may help to identify subsets of patients with markedly different outcomes after combined lung and brain operation.

Objective radiographic criteria to differentiate cardiac, renal, and injury lung edema.

To assess the value of the chest radiograph in differentiating various types of pulmonary edema, we retrospectively analyzed 119 films of patients with pulmonary edema caused by left heart decompensation (group 1;N = 56), renal failure (group 2; N = 19), and lung microvascular injury (group 3; N = 44). Chest radiographs were examined independently by two trained observers, unaware of the clinical diagnosis, according to a standardized reading table. The two observers assigned chest films to the corresponding group with an accuracy of 86% and 90%, respectively. To test the observers' objectivity, we used radiographic findings as input variables for discriminant analysis. Computer-generated numerical functions identified pulmonary edema etiology with an accuracy of 88% when considering the three groups together. When groups were compared as pairs, percentages of correct classification were 91% (group 1 vs. group 2), 93% (group 1 vs. group 3), and 100% (group 2 vs. group 3). Thus, a standardized reading of chest radiographs may be considered a reliable clinical method for identifying pulmonary edema etiology.

Intrapleural liquid flow down a gravity-dependent hydraulic pressure gradient.

We studied the vertical movement of 2 mg technetium-labeled albumin injected intrapleurally in 0.5 ml saline (15% of pleural liquid volume) in eight spontaneously breathing anesthetized dogs subject to a sudden change in posture (prone to supine or vice versa). The albumin movements were evaluated through a large field gamma camera placed laterally to the animal and detecting total (AT) and regional activities from two superimposed equal areas (At and Ab, top and bottom, respectively). The At/Ab ratio decreased from 2.1 to 1.3 in four animals up to 20 min from the change in posture and from 0.9 to 0.5 in four more animals studied from 50 to 90 min from turning maneuver. The rate of change in At and Ab was similar in the two groups of animals and unaffected by the acquisition posture. AT decreased by 7.7 and 3.5% for the two groups, respectively, reflecting albumin clearance from the pleural space. The opposite time course of regional activities and the independence of their rate of change of the At/Ab ratio and of the animal posture suggest a top-to-bottom albumin transfer occurring through a bulk flow of liquid estimated at 0.006 ml.kg-1.h-1. The data are consistent with a measured vertical pleural liquid pressure gradient that does not reflect a hydrostatic condition.