Factors related to early readmissions after acute heart failure: a nested case-control study.

AIMS: To describe the main characteristics of patients who were readmitted to hospital within 1 month after an index episode for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). METHODS AND RESULTS: This is a nested case-control study in the ReIC cohort, cases being consecutive patients readmitted after hospitalization for an episode of ADHF and matched controls selected from those who were not readmitted. We collected clinical data and also patient-reported outcome measures, including dyspnea, Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire (MLHFQ), Tilburg Frailty Indicator (TFI) and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale scores, as well as symptoms during a transition period of 1 month after discharge. We created a multivariable conditional logistic regression model. Despite cases consulted more than controls, there were no statistically significant differences in changes in treatment during this first month. Patients with chronic decompensated heart failure were 2.25 [1.25, 4.05] more likely to be readmitted than de novo patients. Previous diagnosis of arrhythmia and time since diagnosis ≥ 3 years, worsening in dyspnea, and changes in MLWHF and TFI scores were significant in the final model. CONCLUSION: We present a model with explanatory variables for readmission in the short term for ADHF. Our study shows that in addition to variables classically related to readmission, there are others related to the presence of residual congestion, quality of life and frailty that are determining factors for readmission for heart failure in the first month after discharge. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03300791. First registration: 03/10/2017.

Influence of depression on survival of colorectal cancer patients drawn from a large prospective cohort.

OBJECTIVE: The prevalence of depressive symptoms immediately after the diagnosis of colorectal cancer (CRC) is high and has important implications both psychologically and on the course of the disease. The aim of this study is to analyse the association between depressive symptoms and CRC survival at 5 years after diagnosis. METHODS: This multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study was conducted on a sample of 2602 patients with CRC who completed the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS-D) at 5 years of follow-up. Survival was analysed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression models. RESULTS: According to our analysis, the prevalence of depressive symptoms after a CRC diagnosis was 23.8%. The Cox regression analysis identified depression as an independent risk factor for survival (HR = 1.47; 95% CI: 1.21-1.8), a finding which persisted after adjusting for sex (female: HR = 0.63; 95% CI: 0.51-0.76), age (>70 years: HR = 3.78; 95% CI: 1.94-7.36), need for help (yes: HR = 1.43; 95% CI: 1.17-1.74), provision of social assistance (yes: HR = 1.46; 95% CI: 1.16-1.82), tumour size (T3-T4: HR = 1.56; 95% CI: 1.22-1.99), nodule staging (N1-N2: HR = 2.46; 95% CI: 2.04-2.96), and diagnosis during a screening test (yes: HR = 0.71; 95% CI: 0.55-0.91). CONCLUSIONS: There is a high prevalence of depressive symptoms in patients diagnosed with CRC. These symptoms were negatively associated with the survival rate independently of other clinical variables. Therefore, patients diagnosed with CRC should be screened for depressive symptoms to ensure appropriate treatment can be provided.

Factors that Influence Treatment Delay for Patients with Breast Cancer.

INTRODUCTION: The diagnosis or treatment of breast cancer is sometimes delayed. A lengthy delay may have a negative psychological impact on patients. The aim of our study was to evaluate the sociodemographic, clinical and pathological factors associated with delay in the provision of surgical treatment for localised breast cancer, in a prospective cohort of patients. METHODS: This observational, prospective, multicentre study was conducted in ten hospitals belonging to the Spanish national public health system, located in four Autonomous Communities (regions). The study included 1236 patients, diagnosed through a screening programme or found to be symptomatic, between April 2013 and May 2015. The study variables analysed included each patient's personal history, care situation, tumour history and data on the surgical intervention, pathological anatomy, hospital admission and follow-up. Treatment delay was defined as more than 30 days elapsed between biopsy and surgery. RESULTS: Over half of the study population experienced surgical treatment delay. This delay was greater for patients with no formal education and among widows, persons not requiring assistance for usual activities, those experiencing anxiety or depression, those who had a high BMI or an above-average number of comorbidities, those who were symptomatic, who did not receive NMR spectroscopy, who presented a histology other than infiltrating ductal carcinoma or who had poorly differentiated carcinomas. CONCLUSIONS: Certain sociodemographic and clinical variables are associated with surgical treatment delay. This study identifies factors that influence surgical delays, highlighting the importance of preventing these factors and of raising awareness among the population at risk and among health personnel.

Risk scores to predict mortality 2 and 5 years after surgery for colorectal cancer in elderly patients.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to identify predictors of mortality in elderly patients undergoing colorectal cancer surgery and to develop a risk score. METHODS: This was an observational prospective cohort study. Individuals over 80 years diagnosed with colorectal cancer and treated surgically were recruited in 18 hospitals in the Spanish National Health Service, between June 2010 and December 2012, and were followed up 1, 2, 3, and 5 years after surgery. Sociodemographic and clinical data were collected. The primary outcomes were mortality at 2 and between 2 and 5 years after the index admission. RESULTS: The predictors of mortality 2 years after surgery were haemoglobin ≤ 10 g/dl and colon locations (HR 1.02; CI 0.51-2.02), ASA class of IV (HR 3.55; CI 1.91-6.58), residual tumour classification of R2 (HR 7.82; CI 3.11-19.62), TNM stage of III (HR 2.14; CI 1.23-3.72) or IV (HR 3.21; CI 1.47-7), LODDS of more than - 0.53 (HR 3.08; CI 1.62-5.86)) and complications during admission (HR 1.73; CI 1.07-2.80). Between 2 and 5 years of follow-up, the predictors were no tests performed within the first year of follow-up (HR 2.58; CI 1.21-5.46), any complication due to the treatment within the 2 years of follow-up (HR 2.47; CI 1.27-4.81), being between 85 and 89 and not having radiotherapy within the second year of follow-up (HR 1.60; CI 1.01-2.55), no colostomy closure within the 2 years of follow-up (HR 4.93; CI 1.48-16.41), medical complications (HR 1.61; CI 1.06-2.44), tumour recurrence within the 2 years of follow-up period (HR 3.19; CI 1.96-5.18), and readmissions at 1 or 2 years of follow-up after surgery (HR 1.44; CI 0.86-2.41). CONCLUSION: We have identified variables that, in our sample, predict mortality 2 and between 2 and 5 years after surgery for colorectal cancer older patients. We have also created risks scores, which could support the decision-making process. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT02488161 .

Gender differences in stage at diagnosis and preoperative radiotherapy in patients with rectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined gender differences in the clinical management of rectal cancer. We examine differences in stage at diagnosis and preoperative radiotherapy in rectal cancer patients. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted in 22 hospitals in Spain including 770 patients undergoing surgery for rectal cancer. Study outcomes were disseminated disease at diagnosis and receiving preoperative radiotherapy. Age, comorbidity, referral from a screening program, diagnostic delay, distance from the anal verge, and tumor depth were considered as factors that might explain gender differences in these outcomes. RESULTS: Women were more likely to be diagnosed with disseminated disease among those referred from screening (odds ratio, confidence interval 95% (OR, CI = 7.2, 0.9-55.8) and among those with a diagnostic delay greater than 3 months (OR, CI = 5.1, 1.2-21.6). Women were less likely to receive preoperative radiotherapy if they were younger than 65 years of age (OR, CI = 0.6, 0.3-1.0) and if their tumors were cT3 or cT4 (OR, CI = 0.5, 0.4-0.7). CONCLUSIONS: The gender-specific sensitivity of rectal cancer screening tests, gender differences in referrals and clinical reasons for not prescribing preoperative radiotherapy in women should be further examined. If these gender differences are not clinically justifiable, their elimination might enhance survival.

Impact of reducing the duration of antibiotic treatment on the long-term prognosis of community acquired pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: The optimal duration of antibiotic treatment for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is not well established. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of reducing the duration of antibiotic treatment on long-term prognosis in patients hospitalized with CAP. METHODS: This was a multicenter study assessing complications developed during 1 year of patients previously hospitalized with CAP who had been included in a randomized clinical trial concerning the duration of antibiotic treatment. Mortality at 90 days, at 180 days and at 1 year was analyzed, as well as new admissions and cardiovascular complications. A subanalysis was carried out in one of the hospitals by measuring C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT) and proadrenomedullin (proADM) at admission, at day 5 and at day 30. RESULTS: A total of 312 patients were included, 150 in the control group and 162 in the intervention group. Ninety day, 180 day and 1-year mortality in the per-protocol analysis were 8 (2.57%), 10 (3.22%) and 14 (4.50%), respectively. There were no significant differences between both groups in terms of 1-year mortality (p = 0.94), new admissions (p = 0.84) or cardiovascular events (p = 0.33). No differences were observed between biomarker level differences from day 5 to day 30 (CRP p = 0.29; PCT p = 0.44; proADM p = 0.52). CONCLUSIONS: Reducing antibiotic treatment in hospitalized patients with CAP based on clinical stability criteria is safe, without leading to a greater number of long-term complications.

Health services research in patients with breast cancer (CAMISS-prospective): study protocol for an observational prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Though breast cancer remains a major health problem, there is a lack of information on health care provided to patients with this disease and associated costs. In addition, there is a need to update and validate risk stratification tools in Spain. Our purpose is to evaluate the health services provided for breast cancer in Spain, from screening and diagnosis to treatment and prognosis. METHODS: Prospective cohort study involving 13 hospitals in Spain with a follow-up period of up to 5 years after diagnostic biopsy. Eligibility criteria: Patients diagnosed with breast cancer between April 2013 and May 2015 that have consented to participate in the study. DATA COLLECTION: Data will be collected on the following: pre-intervention medical history, biological, clinical, and sociodemographic characteristics, mode of cancer detection, hospital admission, treatment, and outcomes up to 5 years after initial treatment. Questionnaires about quality of life (EuroQoL EQ-5D-5 L, the European Organization For Research And Treatment Of Cancer Core Quality Of Life Questionnaire EORTC QLQ-C30 join to the specific breast cancer module (QLQ-BR23), as well as Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale were completed by the patients before the beginning of the initial treatment and at the end of follow-up period, 2 years later. The end-points of the study were changes in health-related quality of life, recurrence, complications and readmissions at 2 and 5 years after initial treatment. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Descriptive statistics will be calculated and multivariate models will be used where appropriate to adjust for potential confounders. In order to create and validate a prediction model, split validation and bootstrapping will be performed. Cost analysis will be carried out from the perspective of a national health system. DISCUSSION: The results of this coordinated project are expected to generate scientifically valid and clinically and socially important information to inform the decision-making of managers and the authorities responsible for ensuring equality in care processes as well in health outcomes. For clinicians, clinical prediction rules will be developed which are expected to serve as the basis for the development of software applications. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02439554 . Date of registration: May 8, 2015 (retrospectively registered) .

Validity of the CR-POSSUM model in surgery for colorectal cancer in Spain (CCR-CARESS study) and comparison with other models to predict operative mortality.

BACKGROUND: To validate and recalibrate the CR- POSSUM model and compared its discriminatory capacity with other European models such as POSSUM, P-POSSUM, AFC or IRCS to predict operative mortality in surgery for colorectal cancer. METHODS: Prospective multicenter cohort study from 22 hospitals in Spain. We included patients undergoing planned or urgent surgery for primary invasive colorectal cancers between June 2010 and December 2012 (N = 2749). Clinical data were gathered through medical chart review. We validated and recalibrated the predictive models using logistic regression techniques. To calculate the discriminatory power of each model, we estimated the areas under the curve - AUC (95% CI). We also assessed the calibration of the models by applying the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. RESULTS: In-hospital mortality was 1.5% and 30-day mortality, 1.7%. In the validation process, the discriminatory power of the CR-POSSUM for predicting in-hospital mortality was 73.6%. However, in the recalibration process, the AUCs improved slightly: the CR-POSSUM reached 75.5% (95% CI: 67.3-83.7). The discriminatory power of the CR-POSSUM for predicting 30-day mortality was 74.2% (95% CI: 67.1-81.2) after recalibration; among the other models the POSSUM had the greatest discriminatory power, with an AUC of 77.0% (95% CI: 68.9-85.2). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed good fit for all the recalibrated models. CONCLUSION: The CR-POSSUM and the other models showed moderate capacity to discriminate the risk of operative mortality in our context, where the actual operative mortality is low. Nevertheless the IRCS might better predict in-hospital mortality, with fewer variables, while the CR-POSSUM could be slightly better for predicting 30-day mortality. TRAIL REGISTRATION: Registered at: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02488161.

Psychometric characteristics of the Spanish version of the Barthel Index.

BACKGROUND: The Barthel Index is one of the most employed questionnaires for the evaluation of functionality, but there is no information on its psychometric properties. OBJECTIVE: The aim was to evaluate the reliability, validity, and responsiveness of the Spanish version of the Barthel Index. METHODS: The data employed in this paper were obtained from four Spanish cohorts of elderly people of 60 years or older. We collected data on age, gender, education level, comorbidities, and questionnaires regarding functionality, health-related quality of life, depression, and social support. RESULTS: The Cronbach's alpha coefficients were greater than 0.70. The confirmatory factor analysis provided satisfactory fit indexes and factor loadings. The correlation coefficients between the Barthel Index and the other questionnaires were lower than the Cronbach's alpha coefficients. Known-groups validity showed significant differences in the Barthel Index according to age, number of comorbidities, and gender. The standardized effect size and the standardized response mean were between 0.68 and 1.81. DISCUSSION: This version of the Barthel Index has good reliability, its structural validity has been confirmed, and the questionnaire can discriminate between groups and detect changes at follow-up points. CONCLUSIONS: This questionnaire can be used in the evaluation of functionality and basic activities of daily living in elderly people with different conditions.

New psychometric data from the Spanish versions of the Glasgow Dyspepsia Severity Score and the Dyspepsia-Related Health Scale measures.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: There are no structural abnormalities in functional dyspepsia, therefore it is essential to have a viable questionnaire to measure treatment outcome according to patient perception. The aim of the study was to extensively document psychometric characteristics of the Glasgow Dyspepsia Severity Score and the Dyspepsia-Related Health Scale that are currently available in Spanish. METHODS: Patients with functional dyspepsia (n = 158) were recruited from a randomized trial that assessed standard vs. standard and psychological treatment. Participants had completed the validation questionnaires and the Medical Outcome Study Short-form 36. Reliability (Cronbach's alpha), validity (Confirmatory Factor Analysis, convergent and known group validity) and responsiveness (minimal clinically important difference) were analyzed. RESULTS: A Confirmatory Factor Analysis of the Glasgow Dyspepsia Severity Score showed a one-factor solution model, but a low Cronbach's alpha (0.61). With regard to the Dyspepsia-Related Health Scale, the Cronbach's alpha (0.80-0.97) and Confirmatory Factor Analysis supported a model with four inter-correlated dimensions and suggested a need to improve the "Satisfaction with dyspepsia-related health" dimension (Cronbach's alpha < 20). Finally, the global scores for both the Glasgow Dyspepsia Severity Score and the Dyspepsia-Related Health Scale were responsive at six months post-treatment, with a minimal clinically important difference of 4 and 6, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the continued application of the Dyspepsia-Related Health Scale and the need to improve the "Satisfaction with dyspepsia-related health" dimension. Although the Glasgow Dyspepsia Severity Score is a promising questionnaire, further review of the content is required to eliminate and add items in order to provide greater consistency to the evaluated construct.

Factors related to a decline in upper extremity function among patients with a wrist fracture due to a fall.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to identify factors related to a decline in function following a wrist fracture. METHODS: Observational, prospective cohort study done in five public hospitals of the Basque Health Service. We recruited adults aged 65 or older with a wrist fracture due to a fall who attended the emergency department (ED) of one of these hospitals. Sociodemographic and clinical data were collected, along with information about health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and functionality. RESULTS: A decline in function 6 months after the fracture was more likely among women (OR=3.409; 95% CI=1.920-6.053), patients receiving institutional help before the fracture (OR=5.717; 95% CI=1.644-19.883), patients who developed fracture-related complications within 6 months of the fall (OR=5.015; 95% CI=1.377-18.268), patients who visited an ED within 6 months of the fall (OR=1.646; 95% CI=1.058-2.561), patients with a displaced fracture (OR=1.595; 95% CI=1.106-2.300), and patients who broke the dominant hand (OR=1.464; 95% CI=1.019-2.103). Better baseline HRQoL and function were associated with smaller declines in function 6 months after the fall. Eighteen months after the fall, decline in function was more likely among women (OR=2.172; 95% CI=1.138-4.144) and patients visiting an ED because of fracture-related complications (OR=1.722; 95% CI=1.113-2.663). Better HRQoL and dependency level at baseline were associated with less decline in function 18 months after the fracture. DISCUSSION: Two different models identified several parameters related to declines in upper extremity function 6 and 18 months after the fracture. CONCLUSIONS: These results can help develop preventive actions needed to avoid or reduce the consequences of these falls.

Comparison of body mass index (BMI) with the CUN-BAE body adiposity estimator in the prediction of hypertension and type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a world-wide epidemic whose prevalence is underestimated by BMI measurements, but CUN-BAE (Clínica Universidad de Navarra - Body Adiposity Estimator) estimates the percentage of body fat (BF) while incorporating information on sex and age, thus giving a better match. Our aim is to compare the BMI and CUN-BAE in determining the population attributable fraction (AFp) for obesity as a cause of chronic diseases. METHODS: We calculated the Pearson correlation coefficient between BMI and CUN-BAE, the Kappa index and the internal validity of the BMI. The risks of arterial hypertension (AHT) and diabetes mellitus (DM) and the AFp for obesity were assessed using both the BMI and CUN-BAE. RESULTS: 3888 white subjects were investigated. The overall correlation between BMI and CUN-BAE was R(2) = 0.48, which improved when sex and age were taken into account (R(2) > 0.90). The Kappa coefficient for diagnosis of obesity was low (28.7 %). The AFp was 50 % higher for DM and double for AHT when CUN-BAE was used. CONCLUSIONS: The overall correlation between BMI and CUN-BAE was not good. The AFp of obesity for AHT and DM may be underestimated if assessed using the BMI, as may the prevalence of obesity when estimated from the percentage of BF.

Smoking may increase the risk of hospitalization due to influenza.

BACKGROUND: Smoking may facilitate influenza virus infections and their severity. The objective was to investigate the risk of hospitalization due to influenza in Spanish smokers and ex-smokers. METHODS: We carried out a multicentre, case-control study in 2011. Cases [patients ≥ 18 years hospitalized > 24 h with real time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR)-confirmed influenza] were selected from 29 Spanish hospitals. For each case, we selected an outpatient aged ≥ 18 years with RT-PCR-confirmed influenza matched by age (±5 years), date of hospitalization of the case (±10 days) and province of residence. We collected epidemiological variables, comorbidities and the smoking history. The risk of hospitalization due to smoking was determined by the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) using logistic regression. RESULTS: We studied 471 hospitalized cases and 476 outpatient cases. Hospitalized cases had a higher frequency of influenza risk factors compared with outpatient cases. Hospitalized cases had a higher frequency of smoking (30.9% vs. 17.1%) and being ex-smokers (29.3% vs. 25.3%). Current smoking (aOR = 2.18, 95% CI: 1.23-3.87) and being an ex-smoker (aOR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.07-2.82) were associated with the risk of hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking may increase the risk of hospitalization in smokers and ex-smokers when infected by the influenza virus. Smoking prevention could reduce hospitalizations. Influenza vaccination is recommended for smokers.

Emergency Hospital Care for Exacerbation of COPD: Is Inhaled Maintenance Therapy Modified?

BACKGROUND: The impact of hospital emergency care and inward admission for acute exacerbations of COPD on inhaled maintenance treatment is not well known. OBJECTIVE: Therefore, we evaluated the impact of short-stay emergency hospital care and inward admission for acute exacerbation of COPD (eCOPD) on inhaled maintenance treatment prescribed at discharge. DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study of patients presenting with eCOPD at emergency departments in 16 hospitals of the Spanish healthcare system. The ethics committee at each hospital approved the study and patients provided an informed consent before inclusion. We classified the patients according to the severity of COPD: mild/moderate (FEV1 ≥ 50% predicted) or severe/very severe (FEV1 < 50% predicted) and need of inward hospitalisation. We analysed changes to maintenance treatment on discharge according to GOLD strategy. RESULTS: 1559 patients, 65% required hospitalisation. The most common maintenance treatment was inhaled corticoids (ICS) (80.9%) followed by long-acting beta-agonists (LABA) (75.4%). The most common combination was triple therapy (LABA+ LAMA+ICS) (56.2%) followed by LABA+ICS dual therapy (18.2%) regardless of the severity of COPD. In more than 60% of patients treatment was not changed at discharge. The most common change in treatment was a reduction when discharge was from emergency care and an increase after hospitalisation (-21.6% and +19.5% in severe/very severe COPD, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Emergency hospital care for eCOPD does not usually induce changes in inhaled maintenance treatment for COPD regardless of the duration of the hospital stay.

The Use of Pulse Oximetry to Determine Hypoxemia in Acute Exacerbations of COPD.

BACKGROUND: There is little evidence that the guideline-recommended oxygen saturation of 92% is the best cut-off point for detecting hypoxemia in COPD exacerbations. OBJECTIVE: To detect and validate pulse oximetry oxygen saturation cut-off values likely to detect hypoxemia in patients with aeCOPD, to explore the correlation between oxygen saturation measured by pulse oximetry and hypoxemia or hypercapnic respiratory failure. METHODOLOGY: Cross-sectional study nested in the IRYSS-COPD study with 2,181 episodes of aeCOPD recruited between 2008 and 2010 in 16 hospitals belonging to the Spanish Public Health System. Data collected include determination of oxygen saturation by pulse oximetry upon arrival in the emergency department (ED), first arterial blood gasometry values, sociodemographic information, background medical history and clinical variables upon ED arrival. Logistic regression models were performed using as the dependent variables hypoxemia (PaO2 < 60 mmHg) and hypercapnic respiratory failure (PaO2 < 60 mmHg and PaCO2 > 45). Optimal cut-off points were calculated. RESULTS: The correlation coefficient between oxygen saturation and pO2 measured by arterial blood gasometry was 0.89. The area under the curve (AUC) for the hypoxemia model was 0.97 (0.96-0.98) and the optimal cut-off point for hypoxemia was an oxygen saturation of 90%. The AUC for hypercapnic respiratory failure was 0.90 (0.87-0.92) and the optimal cut-off point was an oxygen saturation of 88%. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support current recommendations for ordering blood gasometry based on pulse oximetry oxygen saturation cut-offs for hypoxemia. We also provide easy to use formulae to calculate pO2 from oxygen saturation measured by pulse oximetry.

Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in non-vaccinated, pregnant women in Spain (2009-2010).

The aim of this study was to investigate the main characteristics of non-vaccinated pregnant women who were hospitalised for influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 pandemic versus pregnant women hospitalised for non-influenza-related reasons in Spain, and to characterise the clinical presentation of the disease in this population to facilitate early diagnosis and future action programmes. Understanding influenza infection during pregnancy is important as pregnant women are a high-risk population for increased morbidity from influenza infection. We investigated the socio-demographic and clinical features of 51 non-vaccinated, pregnant women infected with the pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in Spain (cases) and compared them to 114 controls (non-vaccinated and non-infected pregnant women) aged 15-44 years. Substantial and significant odd ratios (ORs) for pandemic influenza A (H1N1) were found for the pregnant women who were obese compared with controls (body mass index > 30) (OR 3.03; 95% confidence intervals 1.13-8.11). The more prevalent symptoms observed in pandemic influenza-infected pregnant women were high temperature, cough (82.4%), malaise (80.5%), myalgia (56.1%), and headaches (54.9%). Our results suggest that the initial symptoms and risk factors for infection of pregnant women with the influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 virus are similar to the symptoms and risk factors for seasonal influenza, which make early diagnosis difficult, and reinforces the need to identify and protect high-risk groups.

Predictive factors of severe multilobar pneumonia and shock in patients with influenza.

PURPOSE: To identify risk factors present at admission in adult patients hospitalised due to influenza virus infection during the 2009/10 and 2010/11 seasons--including whether infection was from pandemic or seasonal influenza A infections--that were associated with the likelihood of developing severe pneumonia with multilobar involvement and shock. METHODS: Prospective cohort study. Patients hospitalised due to influenza virus infection were recruited. We collected information on sociodemographic characteristics, pre-existing medical conditions, vaccinations, toxic habits, previous medications, exposure to social environments, and EuroQoL-5D (EQ-5D). Severe pneumonia with multilobar involvement and/or shock (SPAS) was the primary outcome of interest. We constructed two multivariate logistic regression models to explain the likelihood of developing SPAS and to create a clinical prediction rule for developing SPAS that includes clinically relevant variables. RESULTS: Laboratory-confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09, EQ-5D utility score 7 days before admission, more than one comorbidity, altered mental status, dyspnoea on arrival, days from onset of symptoms, and influenza season were associated with SPAS. In addition, not being vaccinated against seasonal influenza in the previous year, anaemia, altered mental status, fever and dyspnoea on arrival at hospital, difficulties in performing activities of daily living in the previous 7 days, and days from onset of symptoms to arrival at hospital were related to the likelihood of SPAS (area under the curve value of 0.75; Hosmer-Lemeshow p value of 0.84). CONCLUSIONS: These variables should be taken into account by physicians evaluating a patient affected by influenza as additional information to that provided by the usual risk scores.

Cost-sensitive ordinal classification methods to predict SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia severity.

OBJECTIVE: To study the suitability of costsensitive ordinal artificial intelligence-machine learning (AIML) strategies in the prognosis of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia severity. MATERIALS & METHODS: Observational, retrospective, longitudinal, cohort study in 4 hospitals in Spain. Information regarding demographic and clinical status was supplemented by socioeconomic data and air pollution exposures. We proposed AI-ML algorithms for ordinal classification via ordinal decomposition and for cost-sensitive learning via resampling techniques. For performance-based model selection, we defined a custom score including per-class sensitivities and asymmetric misprognosis costs. 260 distinct AI-ML models were evaluated via 10 repetitions of 5×5 nested cross-validation with hyperparameter tuning. Model selection was followed by the calibration of predicted probabilities. Final overall performance was compared against five well-established clinical severity scores and against a 'standard' (non-cost sensitive, non-ordinal) AI-ML baseline. In our best model, we also evaluated its explainability with respect to each of the input variables. RESULTS: The study enrolled n = 1548 patients: 712 experienced low, 238 medium, and 598 high clinical severity. d = 131 variables were collected, becoming d ' = 148 features after categorical encoding. Model selection resulted in our best-performing AI-ML pipeline having: a) no imputation of missing data, b) no feature selection (i.e. using the full set of d ' features), c) 'Ordered Partitions' ordinal decomposition, d) cost-based reimbalance, and e) a Histogram-based Gradient Boosting classifier. This best model (calibrated) obtained a median accuracy of 68.1% [67.3%, 68.8%] (95% confidence interval), a balanced accuracy of 57.0% [55.6%, 57.9%], and an overall area under the curve (AUC) 0.802 [0.795, 0.808]. In our dataset, it outperformed all five clinical severity scores and the 'standard' AI-ML baseline. DISCUSSION & CONCLUSION: We conducted an exhaustive exploration of AI-ML methods designed for both ordinal and cost-sensitive classification, motivated by a real-world application domain (clinical severity prognosis) in which these topics arise naturally. Our model with the best classification performance exploited successfully the ordering information of ground truth classes, coping with imbalance and asymmetric costs. However, these ordinal and cost-sensitive aspects are seldom explored in the literature.