Predicting the risk of becoming eligible for the disability pension: Machine learning methods applied to French health data / Prédire le passage en invalidité : les méthodes d'apprentissage automatique appliquées aux données de santé françaises

Introduction: Benefiting from the disability pension implies morbid (physical and psychological) and social (fall in income) implications for the person. It also has economic consequences for society, with increasing expenses since 2011 (+4.9% on average per year). Investing in preventive actions against the loss of the ability to work should limit these consequences, but it requires targeting people at risk. The development of artificial intelligence opens up prospects in this regard. Purpose of the Research: To target, using supervised machine learning methods, those people with a high probability of becoming eligible for the disability pension over the course of the year based on their socio-demographic and medical characteristics (pathologies, work stoppages, drugs taken, and medical procedures). Method: Among the beneficiaries of the French public welfare system aged 20­64 in 2017, we compared the socio-demographic and medical characteristics between 2014 and 2016 of those who received a disability pension in 2017 and not before, and those who did not receive a disability pension from 2014 to 2017. The determination of the boundary between these two groups was tested using logistic regression, decision trees, random forests, naive Bayes classifiers, and support vector machines. The models' performance was compared with respect to accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, and AUC (area under the curve). Finally, the predictive power of each factor was measured by AUC too. Results: The boosted logistic regression had the best performance for three of the five criteria, but low sensitivity. The best sensitivity was obtained with the support vector machines, with an accuracy close to that of the boosted logistic regression, but a lower precision and specificity. Random forests offered the best discriminatory ability. The naive Bayes classifier had the worst performance. The most predictive factors in becoming eligible for the disability pension were having 30 days or more off sick in 2014, 2015, and 2016 and being aged 55 to 64. Conclusion: Supervised learning methods have appeared relevant for identifying people with the highest probability of becoming eligible for the disability pension and, more broadly, for steering public and social policies.

Introduction: Le recours à la pension d'invalidité a des implications morbides (physiques ou psychiques) et sociales (baisse du revenu). Il a aussi des conséquences économiques pour la société, avec des dépenses croissantes depuis 2011 (+4,9 % en moyenne par année). Prévenir la perte de la capacité à travailler devrait permettre de limiter ces conséquences, mais nécessite de cibler les personnes à risque. Le développement des méthodes d'intelligence artificielle ouvre des perspectives en ce sens. But de l'étude: Cibler les personnes ayant une « forte ¼ probabilité de devenir bénéficiaires d'une pension d'invalidité dans l'année au regard de leurs caractéristiques sociodémographiques et médicales (pathologies, arrêts de travail, médicaments et actes médicaux) à partir de méthodes d'apprentissage automatique supervisé. Méthodes: Parmi les bénéficiaires du régime général âgés de 21 à 64 ans en 2017, comparaison des caractéristiques de 2014 à 2016 entre les nouveaux bénéficiaires d'une pension d'invalidité en 2017 et ceux n'en bénéficiant pas. La détermination de la frontière entre ces deux groupes a été testée à l'aide de la régression logistique, des arbres de décision, des forêts aléatoires, de la classification naïve bayésienne et des séparateurs à vaste marge. Les performances des modèles ont été comparées au regard de la justesse, la précision, la sensibilité, la spécificité et l'AUC (Area Under the Curve). Le pouvoir prédictif de chaque facteur est estimé à partir de l'AUC. Résultats: La régression logistique boostée avait les meilleures performances sur trois des cinq critères retenus, mais une faible sensibilité. La meilleure sensibilité était obtenue avec les séparateurs à vaste marge, avec une justesse proche de la régression logistique boostée mais une précision et une spécificité inférieures. Les forêts aléatoires offraient la meilleure capacité discriminatoire. Les facteurs les plus prédictifs du risque de passer en invalidité étaient le bénéfice d'au moins 30 jours d'indemnités journalières pour maladie en 2014, 2015 et 2016 et le fait d'être âgé de 55 à 64 ans. Conclusion: Les méthodes d'apprentissage supervisé sont apparues pertinentes pour le ciblage des personnes les plus à risque de recourir à la pension d'invalidité et, plus largement, pour le pilotage d'autres prestations sociales.

Individual and contextual risk factors for mortality in nursing home residents during the first wave of COVID-19 in France: a multilevel analysis of a nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Mortality amongst nursing home (NH) residents increased by 43% during the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We estimated the 'contextual effect' on mortality, tried to explain it by NH characteristics and identified resident- and NH-level risk factors for mortality. METHODS: The contextual effect was measured for two cohorts of NH residents managed by the general scheme in metropolitan France (RESIDESMS data from 03/01/2020 to 05/31/2020 and 03/01/2019 to 05/31/2019) by the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) estimated from mixed-effects logistic regression. RESULTS: Amongst 385,300 residents (5,339 NHs) included in 2020 (median age 89 years, 25% men), 9.1% died, versus 6.7% of 379,926 residents (5,270 NHs) in 2019. In the empty model, the ICC was 9.3% in 2020 and 1.5% in 2019. Only the geographic location partially explained the heterogeneity observed in 2020 (ICC: 6.5% after adjustment). Associations with mortality were stronger in 2020 than in 2019 for male sex and diabetes and weaker for heart disease, chronic respiratory disease and residence <6 months. Mortality was higher in 2020 (15.1%) than 2019 (6.3%) in NHs with at least one death with a mention of COVID-19 and more heterogeneous (ICC: 8.0%) than in the others (mortality: 6.7% in both years; ICC: 1.1%). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the COVID-19 crisis had a heterogeneous impact on mortality in NH residents and that geographic location explain a part of the contextual effect, which appears to have had little influence on mortality in NHs not being affected by the virus.

Factors associated with hospital admission and 30-day readmission for children less than 18 years of age in 2018 in France: a one-year nationwide observational study.

BACKGROUND: Nationwide data for children for short-stay hospitalisation (SSH) and associated factors are scarce. This retrospective study of children in France < 18 years of age followed after their birth or birthday in 2018 focused on at least one annual SSH, stay < 1 night or ≥ 1 night, or 30-day readmission ≥ 1 night. METHODS: Children were selected from the national health data system (SNDS), which includes data on long-term chronic disease (LTD) status with full reimbursement and complementary universal coverage based on low household income (CMUC). Uni and multivariate quasi-Poisson regression were applied for each outcome. RESULTS: Among 13.211 million children (94.4% population, 51.2% boys), CMUC was identified for 17.5% and at least one LTD for 4% (0-<1 year: 1.5%; 14-<18 year: 5.2%). The most frequent LTDs were pervasive developmental diseases (0.53%), asthma (0.24%), epilepsy (0.17%), and type 1 diabetes (0.15%). At least one SSH was found for 8.8%: SSH < 1 night (4.9%), SSH ≥ 1 night (4.5%), readmission (0.4%). Children with at least one SSH were younger (median 6 vs. 9 years) and more often had CMUC (21%), a LTD (12%), an emergency department (ED) visit (56%), or various primary healthcare visits than all children. Those with a SSH ≥1 night vs. < 1 night were older (median: 9 vs. 4 years). They had the same frequency of LTD (13.4%) but more often an ED visit (78% vs. 42%). Children with readmissions were younger (median 3 years). They had the highest levels of CMUC (29.3%), LTD (34%), EDs in their municipality (35% vs. 29% for the whole population) and ED visits (87%). In adjusted analysis, each outcome was significantly less frequent among girls than boys and more frequent for children with CMUC. LTDs with the largest association with SSH < 1 night were cystic fibrosis, sickle cell diseases (SCD), diabetes type 1, those with SSH ≥1 night type 1 diabetes epilepsy and SCD, and those for readmissions lymphoid leukaemia, malignant neoplasm of the brain, and SCD. Among all SSH admissions of children < 10 years, 25.8% were potentially preventable. CONCLUSION: Higher SSH and readmission rates were found for children with certain LTD living in low-income households, suggesting the need or increase of specific policy actions and research.

Cross-validation of comorbidity items in two national databases in a sample of patients with end-stage kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: The use of national medico-administrative databases for epidemiological studies has increased in the last decades. In France, the Healthcare Expenditures and Conditions Mapping (HECM) algorithm has been developed to analyse and monitor the morbidity and economic burden of 58 diseases. We aimed to assess the performance of the HECM in identifying different conditions in patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) using data from the REIN registry (the French National Registry for patients with ESKD). METHODS: We included all patients over 18 years of age who started renal replacement therapy in France in 2018. Five conditions with a similar definition in both databases were included (ESKD, diabetes, human immunodeficiency virus [HIV], coronary insufficiency, and cancer). The performance of each SNDS algorithm was assessed using sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values (PPVs), negative predictive values (NPVs), and Cohen's kappa coefficient. RESULTS: In total 5,971 patients were included. Among them, 81% were identified as having ESKD in both databases. Diabetes was the condition with the best performance, with a sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and Kappa coefficient all over 80%. Cancer had the lowest level of agreement with a Kappa coefficient of 51% and a high specificity and high NPV (94% and 95%). The conditions for which the definition in the HECM included disease-specific medications performed better in our study. CONCLUSION: The HECM showed good to very good concordance with the REIN database information overall, with the exception of cancer. Further validation of the HECM tool in other populations should be performed.

The Economic Burden of Disease in France From the National Health Insurance Perspective: The Healthcare Expenditures and Conditions Mapping Used to Prepare the French Social Security Funding Act and the Public Health Act.

BACKGROUND: Identifying the most frequently treated and the costliest health conditions is essential for prioritizing actions to improve the resilience of health systems. OBJECTIVES: Healthcare Expenditures and Conditions Mapping describes the annual economic burden of 58 health conditions to prepare the French Social Security Funding Act and the Public Health Act. DESIGN: Annual cross-sectional study (2015-2019) based on the French national health database. SUBJECTS: National health insurance beneficiaries (97% of the French residents). MEASURES: All individual health care expenditures reimbursed by the national health insurance were attributed to 58 health conditions (treated diseases, chronic treatments, and episodes of care) identified by using algorithms based on available medical information (diagnosis coded during hospital stays, long-term diseases, and specific drugs). RESULTS: In 2019, €167.0 billion were reimbursed to 66.3 million people (52% women, median age: 42 y). The most prevalent treated diseases were diabetes (6.0%), chronic respiratory diseases (5.5%), and coronary diseases (3.2%). Coronary diseases accounted for 4.6% of expenditures, neurotic and mood disorders 3.7%, psychotic disorders 2.8%, and breast cancer 2.1%. Between 2015 and 2019, the expenditures increased primarily for diabetes (+€906 million) and neurotic and mood disorders (+€861 million) due to the growing number of patients. "Active lung cancer" (+€797 million) represented the highest relative increase (+54%) due to expenditures for the expensive drugs and medical devices delivered at hospital. CONCLUSIONS: These results have provided policy-makers, evaluators, and public health specialists with key insights into identifying health priorities and a better understanding of trends in health care expenditures in France.

Allocation aux adultes handicapés : pathologies et recours aux soins des bénéficiaires en 2017.

OBJECTIVE: We described the pathologies and health care utilization of beneficiaries of the general health insurance scheme via the Allocation Adulte Handicapé (AAH - Adult Disability Allowance) compared to the general population. METHOD: Mapping of pathologies and expenditures allowed the identification of 58 pathologies and chronic treatments in the SNDS, thanks to ICD-10 codes for long-term conditions or hospitalizations, specific drugs or medical procedures, among all beneficiaries of the general health insurance scheme aged 20 to 64 years with reimbursed care (>1€) in 2017. The prevalence and annual rates of care utilization among all beneficiaries of the general scheme via AAH (“AAH” group) and in the rest of the population (“non-AAH”) were standardized and described. RESULTS: Among the 793,934 (2.51% of the population) “AAH” persons, all the pathologies studied were more frequent than among the “non-AAH”, with 44% having psychiatric pathologies (compared with 3.2%), and 14% a neurological pathology (compared with 1%). AAH beneficiaries were more likely to use hospital care (63% versus 40%), but less likely to use specialist care (63% versus 68%) and dental care (37% versus 45%). CONCLUSION: The beneficiaries of the general scheme via the AAH had mainly psychiatric and neurological pathologies, but other pathologies were also much more frequent than in the general population. The lower use of dental and specialist care was probably related to a lack of access to care, potentially caused by the absence of 100% coverage of care.

Magnitude, change over time, demographic characteristics and geographic distribution of excess deaths among nursing home residents during the first wave of COVID-19 in France: a nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The objectives were to assess the excess deaths among Nursing Home (NH) residents during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, to determine their part in the total excess deaths and whether there was a mortality displacement. METHODS: We studied a cohort of 494,753 adults in 6,515 NHs in France exposed to COVID-19 pandemic (from 1 March to 31 May 2020) and compared with the 2014-2019 cohorts using data from the French National Health Data System. The main outcome was death. Excess deaths and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were estimated. RESULT: There were 13,505 excess deaths. Mortality increased by 43% (SMR: 1.43). The mortality excess was higher among males than females (SMR: 1.51 and 1.38) and decreased with increasing age (SMRs in females: 1.61 in the 60-74 age group, 1.58 for 75-84, 1.41 for 85-94 and 1.31 for 95 or over; males: SMRs: 1.59 for 60-74, 1.69 for 75-84, 1.47 for 85-94 and 1.41 for 95 or over). No mortality displacement effect was observed up until 30 August 2020. By extrapolating to all NH residents nationally (N = 570,003), we estimated that they accounted for 51% of the general population excess deaths (N = 15,114 out of 29,563). CONCLUSION: NH residents accounted for half of the total excess deaths in France during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The excess death rate was higher among males than females and among younger than older residents.

French hepatitis C care cascade: substantial impact of direct-acting antivirals, but the road to elimination is still long.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination by 2030, as targeted by the World Health Organization (WHO), requires that 90% of people with chronic infection be diagnosed and 80% treated. We estimated the cascade of care (CoC) for chronic HCV infection in mainland France in 2011 and 2016, before and after the introduction of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). METHODS: The numbers of people (1) with chronic HCV infection, (2) aware of their infection, (3) receiving care for HCV and (4) on antiviral treatment, were estimated for 2011 and 2016. Estimates for 1) and 2) were based on modelling studies for 2011 and on a virological sub-study nested in a national cross-sectional survey among the general population for 2016. Estimates for 3) and 4) were made using the National Health Data System. RESULTS: Between 2011 and 2016, the number of people with chronic HCV infection decreased by 31%, from 192,700 (95% Credibility interval: 150,900-246,100) to 133,500 (95% Confidence interval: 56,900-312,600). The proportion of people aware of their infection rose from 57.7 to 80.6%. The number of people receiving care for HCV increased by 22.5% (representing 25.7% of those infected in 2016), while the number of people on treatment increased by 24.6% (representing 12.1% of those infected in 2016). CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that DAAs substantially impact CoC. However, access to care and treatment for infected people remained insufficient in 2016. Updating CoC estimates will help to assess the impact of new measures implemented since 2016 as part of the goal to eliminate HCV.

Polycystic Ovary Syndrome in Adolescents: Which MR Imaging-based Diagnostic Criteria?

Purpose To evaluate the validity and reproducibility of magnetic resonance (MR) imaging-based ovarian morphologic measurements for diagnosis of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) in adolescents. Materials and Methods This case-control study included 110 adolescent girls (age range, 13-17 years) who underwent pelvic MR imaging in 2006-2015. The case group included girls with high (n = 40, hyperandrogenism and oligomenorrhea or amenorrhea), intermediate (n = 8, hyperandrogenism), or low (n = 7, oligomenorrhea or amenorrhea) suspicion of PCOS. Control subjects were 55 age-matched (± 2 years) girls with no clinical hyperandrogenism, oligomenorrhea, or amenorrhea. The validity (sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) of the number of follicles per ovary (FPO) measuring 9 mm or smaller (FPO-9) and FPO measuring 5 mm or smaller (FPO-5), ovarian volume (OV), sphericity index, peripheral distribution of follicles, and absence of a dominant follicle were determined, with girls who were highly suspected of having PCOS compared with control subjects as the reference. Two radiologists independently measured these criteria in 50 girls who were suspected of having PCOS to assess reproducibility (κ and intraclass correlation coefficients [ICCs]). Results All criteria except sphericity index and absence of a dominant follicle were significantly associated with the level of suspicion of PCOS (P ≤ .05). The AUCs for FPO-9 (0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.68, 0.87), FPO-5 (0.73; 95% CI: 0.62, 0.83), and OV (0.77; 95% CI: 0.68, 0.87) were significantly greater than 0.5; that was not true for sphericity index (AUC, 0.58; 95% CI: 0.47, 0.70). Sensitivity and specificity for peripheral distribution of follicles were 33% (95% CI: 19%, 49%) and 95% (95% CI: 85%, 99%), respectively; for absence of a dominant follicle, they were 90% (95% CI: 76%, 97%) and 27% (95% CI: 16%, 41%), respectively. Reproducibility was almost perfect for OV (ICC, 0.89), substantial for absence of a dominant follicle (κ, 0.74), moderate for FPO-9 (ICC, 0.54) and FPO-5 (ICC, 0.61), and fair for peripheral distribution of follicles (κ, 0.37). Conclusion The most accurate MR imaging-based diagnostic criteria for PCOS were OV, FPO-9, and peripheral distribution of follicles; however, reproducibility of these measures was moderate, except that for OV (ICC, 0.89). © RSNA, 2017 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Comparison of the AN69ST Membrane versus Citrate-Enriched Dialysate on Clotting Events during Hemodialysis without Systemic Anticoagulation.

BACKGROUND: The optimal management of anticoagulation in hemodialyzed patients with a high risk of bleeding is controversial. METHODS: We compared premature termination of dialysis caused by clotting events between AN69ST membranes (G1) and 0.8 mmol/L citrate-enriched dialysate (G2). The number of sessions that had increased venous pressure (VP) and variations in urea-reduction ratio (URR) were analyzed. RESULTS: Six hundred and two sessions were analyzed in 259 patients: 22.4% had sessions that ended prematurely (25% in G1 and 19.1% in G2, p = ns, OR 0.60 [0.34-1.08], p = 0.08). The increase in VP was lower in G2 (23 vs. 70, p < 0.001). URR was higher in G2 (0.56 vs. 0.60, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Clotting events that led to the termination of dialysis were comparable in the 2 groups. However, UUR was better in G2, and the number of patients with increased VP in the sessions was lower in G2. SHORT SUMMARY: Our study compared the effects of the AN69ST membrane and citrate-enriched dialysate on clotting events during the dialysis of 259 patients with a high risk of bleeding. URR was significantly better and fewer cases of increased VP occurred in the citrate group compared to the AN69 ST group. No significant difference was observed regarding the need to prematurely terminate a dialysis session.

A multifaceted intervention designed to improve medical management of moderate to advanced chronic kidney disease in HIV-infected patients: a cluster randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is frequent in individuals infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Progression to end-stage renal disease can be slowed by appropriate medical management. METHODS: To assess whether active promotion of guidelines improves CKD management, we conducted a cluster randomized controlled trial within the French Hospital Database on HIV (FHDH-ANRS CO4). We randomized 46 centers participating in the FHDH to either simple information on guideline availability or active promotion with a multifaceted and repeated intervention comprising reminders and audit feedback and targeting of local opinion leaders carried out between April 2009 and April 2010. Outcome measure was CKD management adequacy assessed before and 2 years after the beginning of the intervention in HIV-infected patients with moderate to severe CKD. CKD management was considered adequate in case of referral to a nephrologist or if proteinuria, blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, and glycemia had been measured during the previous year and medications had been prescribed when necessary. RESULTS: Three hundred six patients were enrolled, of whom 238 (78%) completed the 2 years of follow-up. During the study period, the percentage of patients receiving adequate CKD management improved from 64.1% to 70.4% (+6.3%) in the active arm and from 68.3% to 75.6% (+7.3%) in the control arm (adjusted mean difference, -0.7 percentage points [95% confidence interval: -9.2 to 7.9]; P = .95). The biggest impact of active promotion was on the management of proteinuria and blood pressure. CONCLUSIONS: Adequate compliance with CKD management guidelines improved slightly between 2009 and 2011, with no difference between the simple information and active promotion arms. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: CCTIRS 10.150 and CNIL DR-2010-379.

Interactive telemedicine: effects on professional practice and health care outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Telemedicine (TM) is the use of telecommunication systems to deliver health care at a distance. It has the potential to improve patient health outcomes, access to health care and reduce healthcare costs. As TM applications continue to evolve it is important to understand the impact TM might have on patients, healthcare professionals and the organisation of care. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness, acceptability and costs of interactive TM as an alternative to, or in addition to, usual care (i.e. face-to-face care, or telephone consultation). SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Effective Practice and Organisation of Care (EPOC) Group's specialised register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, five other databases and two trials registers to June 2013, together with reference checking, citation searching, handsearching and contact with study authors to identify additional studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: We considered randomised controlled trials of interactive TM that involved direct patient-provider interaction and was delivered in addition to, or substituting for, usual care compared with usual care alone, to participants with any clinical condition. We excluded telephone only interventions and wholly automatic self-management TM interventions. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: For each condition, we pooled outcome data that were sufficiently homogenous using fixed effect meta-analysis. We reported risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for dichotomous outcomes, and mean differences (MD) for continuous outcomes. MAIN RESULTS: We included 93 eligible trials (N = 22,047 participants), which evaluated the effectiveness of interactive TM delivered in addition to (32% of studies), as an alternative to (57% of studies), or partly substituted for usual care (11%) as compared to usual care alone.The included studies recruited patients with the following clinical conditions: cardiovascular disease (36), diabetes (21), respiratory conditions (9), mental health or substance abuse conditions (7), conditions requiring a specialist consultation (6), co morbidities (3), urogenital conditions (3), neurological injuries and conditions (2), gastrointestinal conditions (2), neonatal conditions requiring specialist care (2), solid organ transplantation (1), and cancer (1).Telemedicine provided remote monitoring (55 studies), or real-time video-conferencing (38 studies), which was used either alone or in combination. The main TM function varied depending on clinical condition, but fell typically into one of the following six categories, with some overlap: i) monitoring of a chronic condition to detect early signs of deterioration and prompt treatment and advice, (41); ii) provision of treatment or rehabilitation (12), for example the delivery of cognitive behavioural therapy, or incontinence training; iii) education and advice for self-management (23), for example nurses delivering education to patients with diabetes or providing support to parents of very low birth weight infants or to patients with home parenteral nutrition; iv) specialist consultations for diagnosis and treatment decisions (8), v) real-time assessment of clinical status, for example post-operative assessment after minor operation or follow-up after solid organ transplantation (8) vi), screening, for angina (1).The type of data transmitted by the patient, the frequency of data transfer, (e.g. telephone, e-mail, SMS) and frequency of interactions between patient and healthcare provider varied across studies, as did the type of healthcare provider/s and healthcare system involved in delivering the intervention.We found no difference between groups for all-cause mortality for patients with heart failure (16 studies; N = 5239; RR:0.89, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.03, P = 0.12; I(2) = 44%) (moderate to high certainty of evidence) at a median of six months follow-up. Admissions to hospital (11 studies; N = 4529) ranged from a decrease of 64% to an increase of 60% at median eight months follow-up (moderate certainty of evidence). We found some evidence of improved quality of life (five studies; N = 482; MD:-4.39, 95% CI -7.94 to -0.83; P < 0.02; I(2) = 0%) (moderate certainty of evidence) for those allocated to TM as compared with usual care at a median three months follow-up. In studies recruiting participants with diabetes (16 studies; N = 2768) we found lower glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c %) levels in those allocated to TM than in controls (MD -0.31, 95% CI -0.37 to -0.24; P < 0.00001; I(2)= 42%, P = 0.04) (high certainty of evidence) at a median of nine months follow-up. We found some evidence for a decrease in LDL (four studies, N = 1692; MD -12.45, 95% CI -14.23 to -10.68; P < 0.00001; I(2 =) 0%) (moderate certainty of evidence), and blood pressure (four studies, N = 1770: MD: SBP:-4.33, 95% CI -5.30 to -3.35, P < 0.00001; I(2) = 17%; DBP: -2.75 95% CI -3.28 to -2.22, P < 0.00001; I(2) = 45% (moderate certainty evidence), in TM as compared with usual care.Seven studies that recruited participants with different mental health and substance abuse problems, reported no differences in the effect of therapy delivered over video-conferencing, as compared to face-to-face delivery. Findings from the other studies were inconsistent; there was some evidence that monitoring via TM improved blood pressure control in participants with hypertension, and a few studies reported improved symptom scores for those with a respiratory condition. Studies recruiting participants requiring mental health services and those requiring specialist consultation for a dermatological condition reported no differences between groups. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The findings in our review indicate that the use of TM in the management of heart failure appears to lead to similar health outcomes as face-to-face or telephone delivery of care; there is evidence that TM can improve the control of blood glucose in those with diabetes. The cost to a health service, and acceptability by patients and healthcare professionals, is not clear due to limited data reported for these outcomes. The effectiveness of TM may depend on a number of different factors, including those related to the study population e.g. the severity of the condition and the disease trajectory of the participants, the function of the intervention e.g., if it is used for monitoring a chronic condition, or to provide access to diagnostic services, as well as the healthcare provider and healthcare system involved in delivering the intervention.

Timeliness of yellow fever surveillance, Central African Republic.

During January 2007-July 2012, a total of 3,220 suspected yellow fever cases were reported in the Central African Republic; 55 were confirmed and 11 case-patients died. Mean delay between onset of jaundice and case confirmation was 16.6 days. Delay between disease onset and blood collection could be reduced by increasing awareness of the population.

One-year emergency department visits for children < 18 years of age, associated factors and frequency of primary general practitioner or pediatrician visits before: a French observational study (2018-19).

BACKGROUND: This study was designed to identify factors associated with at least one emergency department (ED) visit and those associated without consultation by a general practitioner or paediatrician (GPP) before ED visit. Levels of annual consumption of healthcare services as a function of the number of ED visit were reported. METHODS: This retrospective study focused on children < 18 years of age living in mainland France and followed for one-year after their birth or birthday in 2018. Children were selected from the national health data system, which includes data on healthcare reimbursements, long-term chronic diseases (LTD) eligible for 100% reimbursement, and individual complementary universal insurance (CMUc) status granted to households with a low annual income. Adjusted odds ratios (OR) were estimated using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: There were 13.211 million children included (94.2% of children; girls 48.8%). At least one annual ED visit was found for 24% (1: 16%, 2: 5%, 3 or more: 3%) and 14% of visits led to hospitalization. Factors significantly associated with at least one ED visit were being a girl (47.1%; OR = 0.92), age < 1 year (9.1%; OR = 2.85), CMUc (22.7%, OR = 1.45), an ED in the commune of residence (33.3%, OR = 1.15), type 1 diabetes (0.25%; OR = 2.4), epilepsy (0.28%; OR = 2.1), and asthma (0.39%; OR = 2.0). At least one annual short stay hospitalisation (SSH) was found for 8.8% children of which 3.4% after an ED visit. A GPP visit the three days before or the day of the ED visit was found for 19% of children (< 1 year: 29%, 14-17 years: 13%). It was 30% when the ED was followed by SSH and 17% when not. Significant factors associated with the absence of a GPP visit were being a girl (OR = 0.9), age (1 year OR = 1.4, 14-17 years OR = 3.5), presence of an ED in the commune of residence (OR = 1.12), epilepsy LTD (OR = 1.1). CONCLUSION: The low level of visits to GPP prior to a visit to the ED and the associated factors are the elements to be taken into account for appropriate policies to limit ED overcrowding. The same applies to factors associated with a visit to the ED, in order to limit daily variations.

The health state of France before COVID-19 pandemic between 1990 and 2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

Background: France faces nowadays some major challenges regarding its health care system including medically underserved areas, social health inequalities, and hospital pressures. Various indicators and sources of data allow us to describe the health status of a population and, consequently, to assess the impact of these challenges. We assessed the burden of diseases before COVID-19 in France in 2019 and its evolution from 1990 to 2019, and compared it with Western European countries. Methods: We used specific Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) metrics: socio-demographic index (SDI), life expectancy (LE), healthy life expectancy (HALE), years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) with their 95% uncertainty interval (95% UI). We compared French age-standardized metrics to those for other Western European Countries for both sexes and also between 1990 and 2019. We also described the specific causes of these different metrics. Findings: We observed for life expectancy at birth in France a trend to an improvement over time from 77.2 (95% UI: 77.2-77.3) years in 1990 to 82.9 (82.7-83.1) in 2019, which represented the seventh highest life expectancy among 23 Western European countries. HALE at birth in France increased from 67.0 (64.0-69.7) to 71.5 (68.1-74.5), which represented the fourth highest HALE among 23 Western European countries. In France, the total number of DALY per 100.000 population tended to decrease from 25,192 (22,374-28,351) in 1990 to 18,782 (16,408-21,920) in 2019. As compared to other European countries, the burden due to cardiovascular diseases was lower. Neoplasms and cardio-vascular diseases were the two leading causes of YLLs. Mental and musculoskeletal disorders were the two leading causes of YLDs. Interpretation: Overall, these results highlight a clear trend of improvement in the health status in France with certain differences between western European countries. The health policy makers need to devise interventional strategies to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries, with specific attention to causes such as cancers, cardiovascular diseases, mental health and musculoskeletal disorders. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A French nationwide study compared various conditions and healthcare use of individuals < 65 years with a Down's syndrome to those without.

Few regular national clinical data are available for individuals with Down's syndrome (IDS) bearing in mind that they are subject to countries variations in medical termination of pregnancy and screening. Individuals < 65 in 2019 were selected in view of the low number of older IDS. Thus, 98% of 52.4 million people with correct data were included from the national health data system. IDS (35,342) were identified on the basis of the International Classification of Diseases 10th revision code (Q90). Risk ratios (RR) were calculated to compare the frequencies in 2019 between IDS and individual without Down's syndrome (IWDS) of use of health care. The prevalence of IDS was 0.07% (48% women), comorbidities were more frequent, especially in younger patients (24% < 1 year had another comorbidity, RR = 20), as was the percentage of deaths (4.6%, RR = 10). Overall, tumours were less frequent in IDS compared with IWDS (1.2%, RR = 0.7) except for certain leukaemias and testicular tumours (0.3%, RR = 4). Cardiac malformations (5.2%, RR = 52), dementia (1.2%, RR = 29), mental retardation (5%, RR = 21) and epilepsy (4%, RR = 9) were also more frequent in IDS. The most frequent hospital diagnoses for IDS were: aspiration pneumonia (0.7%, RR = 89), respiratory failure (0.4%, RR = 17), sleep apnoea (1.1%, RR = 8), cryptorchidism (0.3%, RR = 5.9), protein-energy malnutrition (0.1%, RR = 7), type 1 diabetes (0.2%, RR = 2.8) and hypothyroidism (0.1%, RR = 72). IDS were more likely to use emergency services (9%, RR = 2.4), short hospital stay (24%, RR = 1.6) or hospitalisation at home (0.6%, RR = 6). They consulted certain specialists two to three times more frequently than IWDS, for example cardiologists (17%, RR = 2.6). This study is the first detailed national study comparing IDS and non-IDS by age group. These results could help to optimize prenatal healthcare, medical and social support.

Social deprivation and the use of healthcare services over one year by children less than 18 years of age in 2018: A French nationwide observational study.

This study aimed to describe the health status of children and how social deprivation affects their use of healthcare services and mortality. Children living in mainland France were selected from the national health data system (SNDS) on their date of birth or birthday in 2018 (< 18 years) and followed for one year. Information included data on healthcare reimbursements, long-term chronic diseases (LTDs) eligible for 100% reimbursement, geographic deprivation index (FDep) by quintile (Q5 most disadvantaged), and individual complementary universal insurance (CMUc) status, granted to households with an annual income below the French poverty level. The number of children who had at least one annual visit or hospital admission was compared using the ratio of geographic deprivation (rQ5/Q1) and CMUc (rCMUc/Not) after gender and age-standardization. Over 13 million children were included; 17.5% had CMUc, with an increase across quintiles (rQ5/Q1 = 3.5) and 4.0% a LTD (rQ5/Q1 = 1.44). The 10 most frequent LTDs (6 psychiatric) were more common as the deprivation increased. Visits to general practitioners (GPs) were similar (≈84%) for each FDep quintile and the density of GPs similar. The density decreased with increasing deprivation for specialists and visits: paediatricians (rQ5/Q1 = 0.46) and psychiatrists (rQ5/Q1 = 0.26). Dentist visits also decreased (rQ5/Q1 = 0.86) and deprived children were more often hospitalised for dental caries (rQ5/Q1 = 2.17, 2.1% vs 0.7%). Emergency department (ED) visits increased with deprivation (rCMUc/Not = 1.35, 30% vs 22%) but 50% of CMUc children lived in a municipality with an ED vs. 25% without. Approximately 9% of children were admitted for a short stay and 4.5% for a stay > 1 night (rQ5/Q1 = 1.44). Psychiatric hospitalization was more frequent for children with CMUc (rCMUc/Not = 3.5, 0.7% vs 0.2%). Higher mortality was observed for deprived children < 18 years (rQ5/Q1 = 1.59). Our results show a lower use of pediatricians, other specialists, and dentists among deprived children that may be due, in part, to an insufficient supply of care in their area of residence. These results have been used to recommend optimization and specifically adapted individual or area-wide policies on the use of healthcare services, their density, and activities.

Impact of the First COVID-19 Pandemic Wave on Hospitalizations and Deaths Caused by Geriatric Syndromes in France: A Nationwide Study.

BACKGROUND: The fear of contracting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the preventive measures taken during the health crisis affected both people's lifestyles and the health system. This nationwide study aimed to investigate the impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospitalizations and mortality related to geriatric syndromes (GS) in older adults in France. METHODS: The French National Health Data System was used to compare hospital admissions (excluding the main diagnosis of COVID-19) and mortality rates (using multiple-cause and initial-cause analyses, and both including or excluding confirmed/probable COVID-19) related to 10 different GS (dementia, other cognitive disorders and symptoms, delirium/disorientation, depression, undernutrition/malnutrition, dehydration, pressure ulcer, incontinence, fall/injury and femoral neck fracture) from January to September 2020 to rates observed in previous years. Analyses were stratified by age, sex, place of residence or place of death, and region. RESULTS: Hospitalization rates for all GS decreased during the first lockdown compared to the same periods in 2017-19 (from -59% for incontinence to -13% for femoral neck fractures). A dose-response relationship was observed between reduced hospitalizations and COVID-19-related mortality rates. Conversely, for almost all GS studied, excess mortality without COVID-19 was observed during this lockdown compared to 2015-17 (from +74% for delirium/disorientation to +8% for fall/injury), especially in nursing homes and at home. CONCLUSIONS: In France, during the first lockdown, a substantial decrease in hospitalizations for GS was accompanied by excess mortality. This decline in the use of services, which persisted beyond lockdown, may have a mid- and long-term impact on older adults' health.

Using filled prescription sequences to rank antidepressants: A nationwide replication study.

Ranking antidepressants according to their acceptability (i.e., a combination of both efficacy and tolerability) in the general population may help choosing the best first-line medication. This study aimed to replicate the results of a proof-of-concept study ranking anti-depressants according to the proportion of filled prescription sequences consistent with a continuation of the first treatment versus those consistent with a change. We used a nationwide cohort from the French national health data system (SNDS) to support the use of this method as a widely available tool to rank antidepressant treatments in real life settings. About 1.2 million people were identified as new antidepressant users in the SNDS in 2011. The outcome was clinical acceptability as measured by the continuation/failure ratio over the six-month period following the introduction of the first-line treatment. Continuation was defined as at least two refills of the same treatment. Failure was defined as a psychiatric hospitalization, death or at least one filled prescription of another antidepressant, an antipsychotic medication, or a mood-stabilizer. Adjusted Odds Ratios (aOR) and 95% Confidence Interval (CI) were computed through multivariable binary logistic regressions. We ranked antidepressant medications according to clinical acceptability. Escitalopram again was the most acceptable option, and the five following antidepressants were the same as in the replication sample of the proof-of-concept study, in order Fluoxetine, Paroxetine, Sertraline, Citalopram and Venlafaxine with aOR (95% CI) for continuation ranging from 0.79 (0.77-0.81) to 0.66 (0.64-0.67). The present study provides evidence that filled prescription sequences is a widely available, robust and reproductible tool to rank antidepressant treatments in real life settings.