SARS-CoV-2 infection risk during delivery of childhood vaccination campaigns: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the delivery of immunisation services globally. Many countries have postponed vaccination campaigns out of concern about infection risks to the staff delivering vaccination, the children being vaccinated, and their families. The World Health Organization recommends considering both the benefit of preventive campaigns and the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission when making decisions about campaigns during COVID-19 outbreaks, but there has been little quantification of the risks. METHODS: We modelled excess SARS-CoV-2 infection risk to vaccinators, vaccinees, and their caregivers resulting from vaccination campaigns delivered during a COVID-19 epidemic. Our model used population age structure and contact patterns from three exemplar countries (Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, and Brazil). It combined an existing compartmental transmission model of an underlying COVID-19 epidemic with a Reed-Frost model of SARS-CoV-2 infection risk to vaccinators and vaccinees. We explored how excess risk depends on key parameters governing SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility, and aspects of campaign delivery such as campaign duration, number of vaccinations, and effectiveness of personal protective equipment (PPE) and symptomatic screening. RESULTS: Infection risks differ considerably depending on the circumstances in which vaccination campaigns are conducted. A campaign conducted at the peak of a SARS-CoV-2 epidemic with high prevalence and without special infection mitigation measures could increase absolute infection risk by 32 to 45% for vaccinators and 0.3 to 0.5% for vaccinees and caregivers. However, these risks could be reduced to 3.6 to 5.3% and 0.1 to 0.2% respectively by use of PPE that reduces transmission by 90% (as might be achieved with N95 respirators or high-quality surgical masks) and symptomatic screening. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 infection risks to vaccinators, vaccinees, and caregivers during vaccination campaigns can be greatly reduced by adequate PPE, symptomatic screening, and appropriate campaign timing. Our results support the use of adequate risk mitigation measures for vaccination campaigns held during SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, rather than cancelling them entirely.

Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021-2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study.

BACKGROUND: To reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norovirus disease incidence is likely to look like upon lifting these restrictions. METHODS: Here we use a mathematical model of norovirus fitted to community incidence data in England to project forward expected incidence based on contact surveys that have been collected throughout 2020-2021. RESULTS: We report that susceptibility to norovirus infection has likely increased between March 2020 and mid-2021. Depending upon assumptions of future contact patterns incidence of norovirus that is similar to pre-pandemic levels or an increase beyond what has been previously reported is likely to occur once restrictions are lifted. Should adult contact patterns return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels, the incidence of norovirus will be similar to previous years. If contact patterns return to pre-pandemic levels, there is a potential for the expected annual incidence to be up to 2-fold larger than in a typical year. The age-specific incidence is similar across all ages. CONCLUSIONS: Continued national surveillance for endemic diseases such as norovirus will be essential after NPIs are lifted to allow healthcare services to adequately prepare for a potential increase in cases and hospital pressures beyond what is typically experienced.

Estimating the minimum number of SARS-CoV-2 infected cases needed to detect viral RNA in wastewater: To what extent of the outbreak can surveillance of wastewater tell us?

There is increasing interest in wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) of SARS-CoV-2 RNA to serve as an early warning system for a community. Despite successful detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewaters sampled from multiple locations, there is still no clear idea on the minimal number of cases in a community that are associated with a positive detection of the virus in wastewater. To address this knowledge gap, we sampled wastewaters from a septic tank (n = 57) and biological activated sludge tank (n = 52) located on-site of a hospital. The hospital is providing treatment for SARS-CoV-2 infected patients, with the number of hospitalized patients per day known. It was observed that depending on which nucleocapsid gene is targeted by means of RT-qPCR, a range of 253-409 positive cases out of 10,000 persons are required prior to detecting RNA SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater. There was a weak correlation between N1 and N2 gene abundances in wastewater with the number of hospitalized cases. This correlation was however not observed for N3 gene. The frequency of detecting N1 and N2 gene in wastewater was also higher than that for N3 gene. Furthermore, nucleocapsid genes of SARS-CoV-2 were detected at lower frequency in the partially treated wastewater than in the septic tank. In particular, N1 gene abundance was associated with water quality parameters such as total organic carbon and pH. In instances of positive detection, the average abundance of N1 and N3 genes in the activated sludge tank were reduced by 50 and 70% of the levels detected in septic tank, suggesting degradation of the SARS-CoV-2 gene fragments already occurring in the early stages of the wastewater treatment process.

The cost-effectiveness of controlling dengue in Indonesia using wMel Wolbachia released at scale: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Release of virus-blocking Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes is an emerging disease control strategy that aims to control dengue and other arboviral infections. Early entomological data and modelling analyses have suggested promising outcomes, and wMel Wolbachia releases are now ongoing or planned in 12 countries. To help inform government, donor, or philanthropist decisions on scale-up beyond single city releases, we assessed this technology's cost-effectiveness under alternative programmatic options. METHODS: Using costing data from existing Wolbachia releases, previous dynamic model-based estimates of Wolbachia effectiveness, and a spatially explicit model of release and surveillance requirements, we predicted the costs and effectiveness of the ongoing programme in Yogyakarta City and three new hypothetical programmes in Yogyakarta Special Autonomous Region, Jakarta, and Bali. RESULTS: We predicted Wolbachia to be a highly cost-effective intervention when deployed in high-density urban areas with gross cost-effectiveness below $1500 per DALY averted. When offsets from the health system and societal perspective were included, such programmes even became cost saving over 10-year time horizons with favourable benefit-cost ratios of 1.35 to 3.40. Sequencing Wolbachia releases over 10 years could reduce programme costs by approximately 38% compared to simultaneous releases everywhere, but also delays the benefits. Even if unexpected challenges occurred during deployment, such as emergence of resistance in the medium-term or low effective coverage, Wolbachia would remain a cost-saving intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Wolbachia releases in high-density urban areas are expected to be highly cost-effective and could potentially be the first cost-saving intervention for dengue. Sites with strong public health infrastructure, fiscal capacity, and community support should be prioritised.

COVID-19-Associated Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children - United States, March-July 2020.

In April 2020, during the peak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Europe, a cluster of children with hyperinflammatory shock with features similar to Kawasaki disease and toxic shock syndrome was reported in England* (1). The patients' signs and symptoms were temporally associated with COVID-19 but presumed to have developed 2-4 weeks after acute COVID-19; all children had serologic evidence of infection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 (1). The clinical signs and symptoms present in this first cluster included fever, rash, conjunctivitis, peripheral edema, gastrointestinal symptoms, shock, and elevated markers of inflammation and cardiac damage (1). On May 14, 2020, CDC published an online Health Advisory that summarized the manifestations of reported multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C), outlined a case definition,† and asked clinicians to report suspected U.S. cases to local and state health departments. As of July 29, a total of 570 U.S. MIS-C patients who met the case definition had been reported to CDC. A total of 203 (35.6%) of the patients had a clinical course consistent with previously published MIS-C reports, characterized predominantly by shock, cardiac dysfunction, abdominal pain, and markedly elevated inflammatory markers, and almost all had positive SARS-CoV-2 test results. The remaining 367 (64.4%) of MIS-C patients had manifestations that appeared to overlap with acute COVID-19 (2-4), had a less severe clinical course, or had features of Kawasaki disease.§ Median duration of hospitalization was 6 days; 364 patients (63.9%) required care in an intensive care unit (ICU), and 10 patients (1.8%) died. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to expand in many jurisdictions, clinicians should be aware of the signs and symptoms of MIS-C and report suspected cases to their state or local health departments; analysis of reported cases can enhance understanding of MIS-C and improve characterization of the illness for early detection and treatment.

COVID-19 Outbreak - New York City, February 29-June 1, 2020.

New York City (NYC) was an epicenter of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in the United States during spring 2020 (1). During March-May 2020, approximately 203,000 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases were reported to the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (DOHMH). To obtain more complete data, DOHMH used supplementary information sources and relied on direct data importation and matching of patient identifiers for data on hospitalization status, the occurrence of death, race/ethnicity, and presence of underlying medical conditions. The highest rates of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were concentrated in communities of color, high-poverty areas, and among persons aged ≥75 years or with underlying conditions. The crude fatality rate was 9.2% overall and 32.1% among hospitalized patients. Using these data to prevent additional infections among NYC residents during subsequent waves of the pandemic, particularly among those at highest risk for hospitalization and death, is critical. Mitigating COVID-19 transmission among vulnerable groups at high risk for hospitalization and death is an urgent priority. Similar to NYC, other jurisdictions might find the use of supplementary information sources valuable in their efforts to prevent COVID-19 infections.

Characteristics of Persons Who Died with COVID-19 - United States, February 12-May 18, 2020.

During January 1, 2020-May 18, 2020, approximately 1.3 million cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and 83,000 COVID-19-associated deaths were reported in the United States (1). Understanding the demographic and clinical characteristics of decedents could inform medical and public health interventions focused on preventing COVID-19-associated mortality. This report describes decedents with laboratory-confirmed infection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, using data from 1) the standardized CDC case-report form (case-based surveillance) (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/reporting-pui.html) and 2) supplementary data (supplemental surveillance), such as underlying medical conditions and location of death, obtained through collaboration between CDC and 16 public health jurisdictions (15 states and New York City).

Projected early spread of COVID-19 in Africa through 1 June 2020.

For 45 African countries/territories already reporting COVID-19 cases before 23 March 2020, we estimate the dates of reporting 1,000 and 10,000 cases. Assuming early epidemic trends without interventions, all 45 were likely to exceed 1,000 confirmed cases by the end of April 2020, with most exceeding 10,000 a few weeks later.

Estimating the burden of dengue and the impact of release of wMel Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in Indonesia: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes reduce dengue virus transmission, and city-wide releases in Yogyakarta city, Indonesia, are showing promising entomological results. Accurate estimates of the burden of dengue, its spatial distribution and the potential impact of Wolbachia are critical in guiding funder and government decisions on its future wider use. METHODS: Here, we combine multiple modelling methods for burden estimation to predict national case burden disaggregated by severity and map the distribution of burden across the country using three separate data sources. An ensemble of transmission models then predicts the estimated reduction in dengue transmission following a nationwide roll-out of wMel Wolbachia. RESULTS: We estimate that 7.8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.8-17.7 million) symptomatic dengue cases occurred in Indonesia in 2015 and were associated with 332,865 (UI 94,175-754,203) lost disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The majority of dengue's burden was due to non-severe cases that did not seek treatment or were challenging to diagnose in outpatient settings leading to substantial underreporting. Estimated burden was highly concentrated in a small number of large cities with 90% of dengue cases occurring in 15.3% of land area. Implementing a nationwide Wolbachia population replacement programme was estimated to avert 86.2% (UI 36.2-99.9%) of cases over a long-term average. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest interventions targeted to the highest burden cities can have a disproportionate impact on dengue burden. Area-wide interventions, such as Wolbachia, that are deployed based on the area covered could protect people more efficiently than individual-based interventions, such as vaccines, in such dense environments.

Potentially Avertable Premature Deaths Associated with Jail Incarceration in New York City.

This study assessed neighborhood-level association between jail incarceration and premature mortality and estimated the number of potentially avertable premature deaths associated with jail incarceration in NYC. The study outcome was premature mortality rate and the main predictor of interest was jail incarceration rate. Variables associated with premature mortality in bivariate analysis were considered for inclusion in the multivariable ordinary least squares model and in the multivariable linear mixed effects model accounting for spatial correlation. Numbers of potentially avertable premature deaths were calculated by substituting the citywide incarceration rate for the neighborhoods with incarceration rates higher than the citywide rate in the final regression model. There were large disparities in both jail incarceration and premature mortality rates. Incarceration was strongly associated with premature mortality. The number of potentially avertable premature deaths associated with jail incarceration from 2011 to 2015 was approximately 6000, representing 10% of all predicted premature deaths in NYC. This study indicates that incarceration is closely correlated with premature mortality rates, which may contribute to health inequities among low-income NYC neighborhoods with predominantly black and Latino residents.

Characteristics of Mothers and Infants Living in Homeless Shelters and Public Housing in New York City.

Introduction Homelessness can result in poor health. The number of families with children living in NYC homeless shelters increased 55% from 2008 to 2014. Half of children living in shelter in 2014 were younger than 6 years old. We compared demographics and health outcomes of mothers and infants residing in NYC homeless shelters to those residing in public housing in this cross-sectional study. Methods Addresses of NYC Department of Homeless Services shelters and NYC Housing Authority (NYCHA) developments were matched to NYC Department of Health birth certificate data for the years 2008-2013. Sociodemographic and health characteristics of newborns residing in shelters were compared to newborns in NYCHA housing using Chi square tests. Results Mothers residing in shelters were younger, more likely to be black and less likely to be Hispanic, more likely to have been born outside NYC and reside in the Bronx. Babies born to mothers living in shelter were more likely to have low birth weight (< 2500 g), be born preterm (< 37 gestational weeks), require assisted ventilation immediately following delivery, have a NICU admission, and use Medicaid. They were less likely to breastfeed within 5 days of delivery and be discharged to their residence. Discussion Homeless mothers and infants had poorer health outcomes compared with those living in public housing. Understanding the health disparities of homeless infants can provide guidance for developing future policies and research initiatives, which may be used to inform the development of new policies to improve health outcomes of homeless infants and their mothers.

Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region in 2013, with serious implications for population health in the region. In 2016, the World Health Organization declared the ZIKV outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern following a cluster of associated neurological disorders and neonatal malformations. In 2017, Zika cases declined, but future incidence in LAC remains uncertain due to gaps in our understanding, considerable variation in surveillance and the lack of a comprehensive collation of data from affected countries. METHODS: Our analysis combines information on confirmed and suspected Zika cases across LAC countries and a spatio-temporal dynamic transmission model for ZIKV infection to determine key transmission parameters and projected incidence in 90 major cities within 35 countries. Seasonality was determined by spatio-temporal estimates of Aedes aegypti vectorial capacity. We used country and state-level data from 2015 to mid-2017 to infer key model parameters, country-specific disease reporting rates, and the 2018 projected incidence. A 10-fold cross-validation approach was used to validate parameter estimates to out-of-sample epidemic trajectories. RESULTS: There was limited transmission in 2015, but in 2016 and 2017 there was sufficient opportunity for wide-spread ZIKV transmission in most cities, resulting in the depletion of susceptible individuals. We predict that the highest number of cases in 2018 would present within some Brazilian States (Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro), Colombia and French Guiana, but the estimated number of cases were no more than a few hundred. Model estimates of the timing of the peak in incidence were correlated (p < 0.05) with the reported peak in incidence. The reporting rate varied across countries, with lower reporting rates for those with only confirmed cases compared to those who reported both confirmed and suspected cases. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that the ZIKV epidemic is by and large over within LAC, with incidence projected to be low in most cities in 2018. Local low levels of transmission are probable, but the estimated rate of infection suggests that most cities have a population with high levels of herd immunity.

Using the human blood index to investigate host biting plasticity: a systematic review and meta-regression of the three major African malaria vectors.

BACKGROUND: The proportion of mosquito blood-meals that are of human origin, referred to as the 'human blood index' or HBI, is a key determinant of malaria transmission. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted followed by meta-regression of the HBI for the major African malaria vectors. RESULTS: Evidence is presented for higher HBI among Anopheles gambiae (M/S forms and Anopheles coluzzii/An. gambiae sensu stricto are not distinguished for most studies and, therefore, combined) as well as Anopheles funestus when compared with Anopheles arabiensis (prevalence odds ratio adjusted for collection location [i.e. indoor or outdoor]: 1.62; 95% CI 1.09-2.42; 1.84; 95% CI 1.35-2.52, respectively). This finding is in keeping with the entomological literature which describes An. arabiensis to be more zoophagic than the other major African vectors. However, analysis also revealed that HBI was more associated with location of mosquito captures (R2 = 0.29) than with mosquito (sibling) species (R2 = 0.11). CONCLUSIONS: These findings call into question the appropriateness of current methods of assessing host preferences among disease vectors and have important implications for strategizing vector control.

Exchange Sex Among Persons Who Inject Drugs in the New York Metropolitan Area: The Importance of Local Context, Gender and Sexual Identity.

Exchanging sex for money or drugs is known to increase risk for HIV among persons who inject drugs (PWID). To better understand determinants of exchange sex among PWID we examined factors associated with exchange sex in the New York metropolitan area-defined as New York City (NYC), NY; Newark, NJ; and Long Island, NY-using data from the 2012 National HIV Behavioral Surveillance system cycle on injection drug use. Of the 1160 PWID in this analysis, 24% reported exchange sex, with differences in gender and sexual identity by location. In multivariable analysis gay/bisexual men, heterosexual women, and lesbian, gay, or bisexual (LGB) women were more likely to exchange sex compared to heterosexual men. Exchange sex was also associated with race/ethnicity, homelessness, incarceration, location, and non-injection crack and cocaine use. We find that heterosexual women and LGB women who injected drugs residing in Newark were more likely to report exchange sex compared to NYC. This study highlights how local conditions impact exchange sex.

Population sensitivity of acute flaccid paralysis and environmental surveillance for serotype 1 poliovirus in Pakistan: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: To support poliomyelitis eradication in Pakistan, environmental surveillance (ES) of wastewater has been expanded alongside surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP). ES is a relatively new method of surveillance, and the population sensitivity of detecting poliovirus within endemic settings requires estimation. METHODS: Data for wild serotype 1 poliovirus from AFP and ES from January 2011 to September 2015 from 14 districts in Pakistan were analysed using a multi-state model framework. This framework was used to estimate the sensitivity of poliovirus detection from each surveillance source and parameters such as the duration of infection within a community. RESULTS: The location and timing of poliomyelitis cases showed spatial and temporal variability. The sensitivity of AFP surveillance to detect serotype 1 poliovirus infection in a district and its neighbours per month was on average 30.0% (95% CI 24.8-35.8) and increased with the incidence of poliomyelitis cases. The average population sensitivity of a single environmental sample was 59.4% (95% CI 55.4-63.0), with significant variation in site-specific estimates (median varied from 33.3-79.2%). The combined population sensitivity of environmental and AFP surveillance in a given month was on average 98.1% (95% CI 97.2-98.7), assuming four samples per month for each site. CONCLUSIONS: ES can be a highly sensitive supplement to AFP surveillance in areas with converging sewage systems. As ES for poliovirus is expanded, it will be important to identify factors associated with variation in site sensitivity, leading to improved site selection and surveillance system performance.

Relationship between plaque composition by virtual histology intravascular ultrasound and clinical outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention in saphenous vein graft disease patients: study protocol of a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Plaque composition and morphologic characteristics identified by virtual histology intravascular ultrasound (VH-IVUS) can determine plaques at increased risk of clinical events following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) among coronary artery disease (CAD) patients. However, there have been few studies to investigate the relationship between plaque composition of saphenous vein graft (SVG) by VH-IVUS and clinical outcomes in patients with saphenous vein graft disease (SVGD) undergoing PCI. The purpose of this study is to determine whether plaque components and characteristics by VH-IVUS can predict major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) among SVGD patients undergoing PCI. METHODS/DESIGN: This is a prospective cohort study conducted in Tianjin Chest Hospital, China. Participants with SVGD referred for PCI will be invited to participate in this study, and will be followed up at 1, 6, 12, 24 and 36 months post-PCI to assess clinical outcomes. The planned sample size is 175 subjects. We will recruit subjects with SVGD scheduled to receive PCI, aged 18-80 years, with a history of previous coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery more than 1 year ago, and willing to participate in the study and sign informed consent. The composite primary study endpoint is the incidence of MACEs after PCI for SVGD, including death from cardiac causes, non-fatal myocardial infarction, unplanned target lesion revascularization (TLR) and target vessel revascularization (TVR). The primary outcome analysis will be presented as Kaplan-Meier estimates and the primary outcome analysis will be carried out using a Cox proportional hazards regression model. DISCUSSION: Once the predictive values of plaque components and characteristics by VH-IVUS on subsequent clinical outcomes are determined among SVGD patients undergoing PCI, an innovative prediction tool of clinical outcomes for SVGD patients undergoing PCI will be created, which may lead to the development of new methods of risk stratification and intervention guidance. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study is registered to ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03175952).

New Routes to Phylogeography: A Bayesian Structured Coalescent Approximation.

Phylogeographic methods aim to infer migration trends and the history of sampled lineages from genetic data. Applications of phylogeography are broad, and in the context of pathogens include the reconstruction of transmission histories and the origin and emergence of outbreaks. Phylogeographic inference based on bottom-up population genetics models is computationally expensive, and as a result faster alternatives based on the evolution of discrete traits have become popular. In this paper, we show that inference of migration rates and root locations based on discrete trait models is extremely unreliable and sensitive to biased sampling. To address this problem, we introduce BASTA (BAyesian STructured coalescent Approximation), a new approach implemented in BEAST2 that combines the accuracy of methods based on the structured coalescent with the computational efficiency required to handle more than just few populations. We illustrate the potentially severe implications of poor model choice for phylogeographic analyses by investigating the zoonotic transmission of Ebola virus. Whereas the structured coalescent analysis correctly infers that successive human Ebola outbreaks have been seeded by a large unsampled non-human reservoir population, the discrete trait analysis implausibly concludes that undetected human-to-human transmission has allowed the virus to persist over the past four decades. As genomics takes on an increasingly prominent role informing the control and prevention of infectious diseases, it will be vital that phylogeographic inference provides robust insights into transmission history.

Risk factors and short-term projections for serotype-1 poliomyelitis incidence in Pakistan: A spatiotemporal analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pakistan currently provides a substantial challenge to global polio eradication, having contributed to 73% of reported poliomyelitis in 2015 and 54% in 2016. A better understanding of the risk factors and movement patterns that contribute to poliovirus transmission across Pakistan would support evidence-based planning for mass vaccination campaigns. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We fit mixed-effects logistic regression models to routine surveillance data recording the presence of poliomyelitis associated with wild-type 1 poliovirus in districts of Pakistan over 6-month intervals between 2010 to 2016. To accurately capture the force of infection (FOI) between districts, we compared 6 models of population movement (adjacency, gravity, radiation, radiation based on population density, radiation based on travel times, and mobile-phone based). We used the best-fitting model (based on the Akaike Information Criterion [AIC]) to produce 6-month forecasts of poliomyelitis incidence. The odds of observing poliomyelitis decreased with improved routine or supplementary (campaign) immunisation coverage (multivariable odds ratio [OR] = 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67-0.84; and OR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.66-0.85, respectively, for each 10% increase in coverage) and increased with a higher rate of reporting non-polio acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) (OR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.02-1.26 for a 1-unit increase in non-polio AFP per 100,000 persons aged <15 years). Estimated movement of poliovirus-infected individuals was associated with the incidence of poliomyelitis, with the radiation model of movement providing the best fit to the data. Six-month forecasts of poliomyelitis incidence by district for 2013-2016 showed good predictive ability (area under the curve range: 0.76-0.98). However, although the best-fitting movement model (radiation) was a significant determinant of poliomyelitis incidence, it did not improve the predictive ability of the multivariable model. Overall, in Pakistan the risk of polio cases was predicted to reduce between July-December 2016 and January-June 2017. The accuracy of the model may be limited by the small number of AFP cases in some districts. CONCLUSIONS: Spatiotemporal variation in immunization performance and population movement patterns are important determinants of historical poliomyelitis incidence in Pakistan; however, movement dynamics were less influential in predicting future cases, at a time when the polio map is shrinking. Results from the regression models we present are being used to help plan vaccination campaigns and transit vaccination strategies in Pakistan.

Effect of transcutaneous electrical stimulation treatment on lower urinary tract symptoms after class III radical hysterectomy in cervical cancer patients: study protocol for a multicentre, randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Class III radical hysterectomy (RH III)_plus pelvic lymphadenectomy is the standard surgery for early stage cervical cancer (CC) patients, the 5 year survival rate is about 90%, but pelvic floor disorders especially bladder dysfunction are common due to damaged vessels and nerve fibers following surgery. Transcutaneous electrical stimulation (TENS) treatment has been used to treat bladder disorders for many years, but its effect on cervical cancer patients, the best treatment time point and stimulated protocol, had never been assessed. The aim of this study is to investigate the efficacy of TENS treatment on lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) after RH III in CC patients. METHODS/DESIGN: The study will be conducted as a clinical, multicentre, randomised controlled trial with balanced randomisation (1:1). The planned sample size is 208 participants (at 1:1 ratio, 104 subjects in each group). At 5-7 days after RH III, patients are screened according to operative and pathological findings. Enrolled participants are randomised into an intervention group (TENS plus conventional clinical care) or control group (conventional clinical care), with stratification by menopausal status (menopause vs. non-menopause) and surgical modality (laparoscopic RH or abdominal RH). Participants in both groups will be followed up at 14 days, 21 days, 28 days, 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, 18 months and 24 months after surgery. The primary endpoint is improvement rate of urination function which is defined as recovery (residual urine ≤50 ml) or improvement (residual urine 50-100 ml). Secondary endpoints include urodynamic parameter, urinary incontinence, anorectal function, pelvic function, quality of life (QOL), disease-free survival and adverse events. Primary endpoint analyses will be carried out by Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel tests taking into center effect. DISCUSSION: To our knowledge this is the first trial to investigate the effect of TENS treatment on bladder function recovery after RH III among CC patients. This study will provide new information on TENS efficacy for bladder function recovery. Once confirmed, it may help to provide a new, non-invisive treatment for those postoperative CC patients with poor pelvic function, which would help improve their quality of life. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study is registered to Clinical Trials.gov ( NCT02492542 ) on June 25, 2015.

An assessment of the geographical risks of wild and vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks in Africa and Asia.

BACKGROUND: The international spread of wild poliomyelitis outbreaks continues to threaten eradication of poliomyelitis and in 2014 a public health emergency of international concern was declared. Here we describe a risk scoring system that has been used to assess country-level risks of wild poliomyelitis outbreaks, to inform prioritisation of mass vaccination planning, and describe the change in risk from 2014 to 2016. The methods were also used to assess the risk of emergence of vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks. METHODS: Potential explanatory variables were tested against the reported outbreaks of wild poliomyelitis since 2003 using multivariable regression analysis. The regression analysis was translated to a risk score and used to classify countries as Low, Medium, Medium High and High risk, based on the predictive ability of the score. RESULTS: Indicators of population immunity, population displacement and diarrhoeal disease were associated with an increased risk of both wild and vaccine-derived outbreaks. High migration from countries with wild cases was associated with wild outbreaks. High birth numbers were associated with an increased risk of vaccine-derived outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Use of the scoring system is a transparent and rapid approach to assess country risk of wild and vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks. Since 2008 there has been a steep reduction in the number of wild poliomyelitis outbreaks and the reduction in countries classified as High and Medium High risk has reflected this. The risk of vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks has varied geographically. These findings highlight that many countries remain susceptible to poliomyelitis outbreaks and maintenance or improvement in routine immunisation is vital.