Enabling conditions for an equitable and sustainable blue economy.

The future of the global ocean economy is currently envisioned as advancing towards a 'blue economy'-socially equitable, environmentally sustainable and economically viable ocean industries1,2. However, tensions exist within sustainable development approaches, arising from differing perspectives framed around natural capital or social equity. Here we show that there are stark differences in outlook on the capacity for establishing a blue economy, and on its potential outcomes, when social conditions and governance capacity-not just resource availability-are considered, and we highlight limits to establishing multiple overlapping industries. This is reflected by an analysis using a fuzzy logic model to integrate indicators from multiple disciplines and to evaluate their current capacity to contribute to establishing equitable, sustainable and viable ocean sectors consistent with a blue economy approach. We find that the key differences in the capacity of regions to achieve a blue economy are not due to available natural resources, but include factors such as national stability, corruption and infrastructure, which can be improved through targeted investments and cross-scale cooperation. Knowledge gaps can be addressed by integrating historical natural and social science information on the drivers and outcomes of resource use and management, thus identifying equitable pathways to establishing or transforming ocean sectors1,3,4. Our results suggest that policymakers must engage researchers and stakeholders to promote evidence-based, collaborative planning that ensures that sectors are chosen carefully, that local benefits are prioritized, and that the blue economy delivers on its social, environmental and economic goals.

Extreme and compound ocean events are key drivers of projected low pelagic fish biomass.

Ocean extreme events, such as marine heatwaves, can have harmful impacts on marine ecosystems. Understanding the risks posed by such extreme events is key to develop strategies to predict and mitigate their effects. However, the underlying ocean conditions driving severe impacts on marine ecosystems are complex and often unknown as risks to marine ecosystems arise not only from hazards but also from the interactions between hazards, exposure and vulnerability. Marine ecosystems may not be impacted by extreme events in single drivers but rather by the compounding effects of moderate ocean anomalies. Here, we employ an ensemble climate-impact modeling approach that combines a global marine fish model with output from a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model, to identify the key ocean ecosystem drivers associated with the most severe impacts on the total biomass of 326 pelagic fish species. We show that low net primary productivity is the most influential driver of extremely low fish biomass over 68% of the ocean area considered by the model, especially in the subtropics and the mid-latitudes, followed by high temperature and low oxygen in the eastern equatorial Pacific and the high latitudes. Severe biomass loss is generally driven by extreme anomalies in at least one ocean ecosystem driver, except in the tropics, where a combination of moderate ocean anomalies is sufficient to drive extreme impacts. Single moderate anomalies never drive extremely low fish biomass. Compound events with either moderate or extreme ocean conditions are a necessary condition for extremely low fish biomass over 78% of the global ocean, and compound events with at least one extreme variable are a necessary condition over 61% of the global ocean. Overall, our model results highlight the crucial role of extreme and compound events in driving severe impacts on pelagic marine ecosystems.

Timing and magnitude of climate-driven range shifts in transboundary fish stocks challenge their management.

Climate change is shifting the distribution of shared fish stocks between neighboring countries' Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and the high seas. The timescale of these transboundary shifts determines how climate change will affect international fisheries governance. Here, we explore this timescale by coupling a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model under a high emission climate change scenario to a dynamic population model. We show that by 2030, 23% of transboundary stocks will have shifted and 78% of the world's EEZs will have experienced at least one shifting stock. By the end of this century, projections show a total of 45% of stocks shifting globally and 81% of EEZs waters with at least one shifting stock. The magnitude of such shifts is reflected in changes in catch proportion between EEZs sharing a transboundary stock. By 2030, global EEZs are projected to experience an average change of 59% in catch proportion of transboundary stocks. Many countries that are highly dependent on fisheries for livelihood and food security emerge as hotspots for transboundary shifts. These hotspots are characterized by early shifts in the distribution of an important number of transboundary stocks. Existing international fisheries agreements need to be assessed for their capacity to address the social-ecological implications of climate-change-driven transboundary shifts. Some of these agreements will need to be adjusted to limit potential conflict between the parties of interest. Meanwhile, new agreements will need to be anticipatory and consider these concerns and their associated uncertainties to be resilient to global change.

El cambio climático está afectando la distribución de las poblaciones de fauna marina compartidas por Zonas Económicas Exclusivas (ZEEs) de países vecinos y en el alta mar. Los efectos del cambio climático en el manejo pesquero internacional estarán determinados por la escala temporal de dichos desplazamientos transfronterizos. Para determinar esa escala temporal, el presente estudio combinó un modelo dinámico poblacional, con una serie de simulaciones de un modelo del sistema terrestre, bajo un escenario de cambio climático de altas emisiones. Los resultados siguieren que para 2030, el 23% de las poblaciones transfronterizas se habrán desplazado y en el 78% de las ZEEs del mundo habrán experimentado cambios en la distribución de al menos una población transfronteriza. Para fines de este siglo, las proyecciones muestran que el 81% de las ZEEs tendrán al menos una población en movimiento y 45% de las poblaciones transfronterizas globales habrán cambiado su distribución. La magnitud de tal desplazamiento se reflejará en un cambio promedio del 59% de la proporción de captura de poblaciones transfronterizas entre ZEEs vecinas para el 2030. Muchos países que dependen de la pesca para sustento económico y seguridad alimentaria emergen como zonas críticas de cambios transfronterizos. Estas zonas se caracterizan por cambios tempranos en la distribución de un número importante de poblaciones transfronterizas. Por lo tanto, los acuerdos pesqueros internacionales deben evaluarse por su capacidad para responder a los impactos socio-ecológicos del desplazamiento de poblaciones transfronterizas debido al cambio climático. Dichos acuerdos deberán de ser ajustados para limitar los posibles conflictos entre las partes de interés y evitar amenazar la sustentabilidad del recurso. Así mismo, los nuevos acuerdos que vayan a establecerse deberán considerar los posibles cambios en la distribución de poblaciones compartidas (y la incertidumbre asociada) para anticiparse a dichos conflictos y aumentar la resiliencia frente al cambio climático.

Le changement climatique altère la distribution des stocks de poissons exploités posant de sérieux problèmes de juridiction et gestion des espèces partagées entre pays voisins, et/ou avec la haute mer. C'est en analysant l'échelle de temps de ces migrations transfrontalières que l'impact du changement climatique sur la gouvernance mondiale des pêches peut être évalué. Dans cette étude, nous explorons cette échelle de temps à l'aide d'un modèle de dynamique des populations marines exploitées couplé à des simulations dérivées d'un ensemble de modèles globaux océan-atmosphère. Les résultats montrent que d'ici 2030, pour le scénario à hautes émissions, 23% des stocks transfrontaliers auront changé de distribution et que 78% des zones économiques exclusives (ZEE) expérimenteront au moins une nouvelle espèce transfrontalière. A la fin du siècle, et pour ce même scénario, 81% des ZEE auront au moins une espèce transfrontalière et 45% des stocks transfrontaliers auront changé de distribution. La magnitude de tels changements de distribution est ici quantifiée par la variation dans la proportion de capture entre ZEE partageant ce stock transfrontalier. D'ici 2030, de tels changements entre ZEE seront de l'ordre de 59% à l'échelle globale, avec de nombreux pays dont la qualité de vie et la sécurité alimentaire dépendent de la pêche émergeant comme zones à haut risque. Ces zones se caractérisent par le déplacement précoce d'un grand nombre de stocks transfrontaliers. A la lumière de ces résultats, les traités et accords de pêche internationaux doivent être évalués pour leur capacité à répondre aux implications socio-écologiques du changement climatique et renégocier afin d'éviter tout conflit entre pays voisins. En anticipant des changements potentiels de distribution entre stocks transfrontaliers, tout nouvel accord de pêche se voudra plus résilient aux effets du changement climatique.

As mudanças climáticas vêm promovendo alterações na distribuição dos estoques de peixes compartilhados por países vizinhos, tanto nas suas Zonas Econômicas Exclusivas (ZEE) como em águas oceânicas internacionais. A escala de tempo desse deslocamento transfronteiriço vai determinar como as mudanças climáticas afetarão o manejo pesqueiro internacional. Diante disso, o presente trabalho teve por objetivo analisar essa escala de tempo, combinando um amplo conjunto de simulações de um modelo do sistema terrestre sob um cenário de mudanças climáticas de altas emissões a um modelo de dinâmica populacional. Foi observado que, para 2030, 23% dos estoques transfronteiriços terão suas distribuições alteradas e 78% das ZEEs do mundo terão experimentado deslocamentos em pelo menos um estoque transfronteiriço. No final deste século, as projeções mostram que 45% dos estoques transfronteiriços do mundo sofrerão alterações e que 81% das ZEEs apresentarão alterações em pelo menos um estoque. A magnitude de tal deslocamento será refletida por uma mudança média de 59% na proporção de capturas de estoques transfronteiriços entre ZEEs vizinhas no ano de 2030. Muitos países que são altamente dependentes da pesca para subsistência e segurança alimentar surgem como pontos críticos para mudanças transfronteiriças. Estes são caracterizados por mudanças iniciais na distribuição de um número importante de estoques transfronteiriços. Os acordos internacionais de pesca precisam ser avaliados quanto à sua capacidade de abordar as implicações sócio-ecológicas de deslocamentos transfronteiriços impulsionados pelas mudanças climáticas e ajustados para limitar um possível conflito entre as partes de interesse. Da mesma forma, novos acordos devem considerar possíveis mudanças na distribuição de populações transfronteiriças a fim de antecipar tais conflitos e construir resiliência em face das mudanças climáticas e das incertezas que as acompanha.

Projecting global mariculture production and adaptation pathways under climate change.

The sustainability of global seafood supply to meet increasing demand is facing several challenges, including increasing consumption levels due to a growing human population, fisheries resources over-exploitation and climate change. Whilst growth in seafood production from capture fisheries is limited, global mariculture production is expanding. However, climate change poses risks to the potential seafood production from mariculture. Here, we apply a global mariculture production model that accounts for changing ocean conditions, suitable marine area for farming, fishmeal and fish oil production, farmed species dietary demand, farmed fish price and global seafood demand to project mariculture production under two climate and socio-economic scenarios. We include 85 farmed marine fish and mollusc species, representing about 70% of all mariculture production in 2015. Results show positive global mariculture production changes by the mid and end of the 21st century relative to the 2000s under the SSP1-2.6 scenario with an increase of 17%±5 and 33%±6, respectively. However, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, an increase of 8%±5 is projected, with production peaking by mid-century and declining by 16%±5 towards the end of the 21st century. More than 25% of mariculture-producing nations are projected to lose 40%-90% of their current mariculture production potential under SSP5-8.5 by mid-century. Projected impacts are mainly due to the direct ocean warming effects on farmed species and suitable marine areas, and the indirect impacts of changing availability of forage fishes supplies to produce aquafeed. Fishmeal replacement with alternative protein can lower climate impacts on a subset of finfish production. However, such adaptation measures do not apply to regions dominated by non-feed-based farming (i.e. molluscs) and regions losing substantial marine areas suitable for mariculture. Our study highlights the importance of strong mitigation efforts and the need for different climate adaptation options tailored to the diversity of mariculture systems, to support climate-resilient mariculture development.

Rebuilding fish biomass for the world's marine ecoregions under climate change.

Rebuilding overexploited marine populations is an important step to achieve the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 14-Life Below Water. Mitigating major human pressures is required to achieve rebuilding goals. Climate change is one such key pressure, impacting fish and invertebrate populations by changing their biomass and biogeography. Here, combining projection from a dynamic bioclimate envelope model with published estimates of status of exploited populations from a catch-based analysis, we analyze the effects of different global warming and fishing levels on biomass rebuilding for the exploited species in 226 marine ecoregions of the world. Fifty three percent (121) of the marine ecoregions have significant (at 5% level) relationship between biomass and global warming level. Without climate change and under a target fishing mortality rate relative to the level required for maximum sustainable yield of 0.75, we project biomass rebuilding of 1.7-2.7 times (interquartile range) of current (average 2014-2018) levels across marine ecoregions. When global warming level is at 1.5 and 2.6°C, respectively, such biomass rebuilding drops to 1.4-2.0 and 1.1-1.5 times of current levels, with 10% and 25% of the ecoregions showing no biomass rebuilding, respectively. Marine ecoregions where biomass rebuilding is largely impacted by climate change are in West Africa, the Indo-Pacific, the central and south Pacific, and the Eastern Tropical Pacific. Coastal communities in these ecoregions are highly dependent on fisheries for livelihoods and nutrition security. Lowering the targeted fishing level and keeping global warming below 1.5°C are projected to enable more climate-sensitive ecoregions to rebuild biomass. However, our findings also underscore the need to resolve trade-offs between climate-resilient biomass rebuilding and the high near-term demand for seafood to support the well-being of coastal communities across the tropics.

Climate-induced decrease in biomass flow in marine food webs may severely affect predators and ecosystem production.

Climate change impacts on marine life in the world ocean are expected to accelerate over the 21st century, affecting the structure and functioning of food webs. We analyzed a key aspect of this issue, focusing on the impact of changes in biomass flow within marine food webs and the resulting effects on ecosystem biomass and production. We used a modeling framework based on a parsimonious quasi-physical representation of biomass flow through the food web, to explore the future of marine consumer biomass and production at the global scale over the 21st century. Biomass flow is determined by three climate-related factors: primary production entering the food web, trophic transfer efficiency describing losses in biomass transfers from one trophic level (TL) to the next, and flow kinetic measuring the speed of biomass transfers within the food web. Using climate projections of three earth system models, we calculated biomass and production at each TL on a 1° latitude ×1° longitude grid of the global ocean under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We show that the alterations of the trophic functioning of marine ecosystems, mainly driven by faster and less efficient biomass transfers and decreasing primary production, would lead to a projected decline in total consumer biomass by 18.5% by 2090-2099 relative to 1986-2005 under the "no mitigation policy" scenario. The projected decrease in transfer efficiency is expected to amplify impacts at higher TLs, leading to a 21.3% decrease in abundance of predators and thus to a change in the overall trophic structure of marine ecosystems. Marine animal production is also projected to decline but to a lesser extent than biomass. Our study highlights that the temporal and spatial projected changes in biomass and production would imply direct repercussions on the future of world fisheries and beyond all services provided by Ocean.

Climate change undermines the global functioning of marine food webs.

Sea water temperature affects all biological and ecological processes that ultimately impact ecosystem functioning. In this study, we examine the influence of temperature on global biomass transfers from marine secondary production to fish stocks. By combining fisheries catches in all coastal ocean areas and life-history traits of exploited marine species, we provide global estimates of two trophic transfer parameters which determine biomass flows in coastal marine food web: the trophic transfer efficiency (TTE) and the biomass residence time (BRT) in the food web. We find that biomass transfers in tropical ecosystems are less efficient and faster than in areas with cooler waters. In contrast, biomass transfers through the food web became faster and more efficient between 1950 and 2010. Using simulated changes in sea water temperature from three Earth system models, we project that the mean TTE in coastal waters would decrease from 7.7% to 7.2% between 2010 and 2100 under the 'no effective mitigation' representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), while BRT between trophic levels 2 and 4 is projected to decrease from 2.7 to 2.3 years on average. Beyond the global trends, we show that the TTEs and BRTs may vary substantially among ecosystem types and that the polar ecosystems may be the most impacted ecosystems. The detected and projected changes in mean TTE and BRT will undermine food web functioning. Our study provides quantitative understanding of temperature effects on trophodynamic of marine ecosystems under climate change.

Projecting global mariculture diversity under climate change.

Previous studies have focused on changes in the geographical distribution of terrestrial biomes and species targeted by marine capture fisheries due to climate change impacts. Given mariculture's substantial contribution to global seafood production and its growing significance in recent decades, it is essential to evaluate the effects of climate change on mariculture and their socio-economic consequences. Here, we projected climate change impacts on the marine aquaculture diversity for 85 of the currently most commonly farmed fish and invertebrate species in the world's coastal and/or open ocean areas. Results of ensemble projections from three Earth system models and three species distribution models show that climate change may lead to a substantial redistribution of mariculture species richness potential, with an average of 10%-40% decline in the number of species being potentially suitable to be farmed in tropical to subtropical regions. In contrast, mariculture species richness potential is projected to increase by about 40% at higher latitudes under the 'no mitigation policy' scenario (RCP 8.5) by the mid-21st century. In Exclusive Economic Zones where mariculture is currently undertaken, we projected an average future decline of 1.3% and 5% in mariculture species richness potential under RCP 2.6 ('strong mitigation') and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the 2050s relative to the 2000s. Our findings highlight the opportunities and challenges for climate adaptation in the mariculture sector through the redistribution of farmed species and expansion of mariculture locations. Our results can help inform adaptation planning and governance mechanisms to minimize local environmental impacts and potential conflicts with other marine and coastal sectors in the future.

Coastal sharks supply the global shark fin trade.

Progress in global shark conservation has been limited by constraints to understanding the species composition and geographic origins of the shark fin trade. Previous assessments that relied on earlier genetic techniques and official trade records focused on abundant pelagic species traded between Europe and Asia. Here, we combine recent advances in DNA barcoding and species distribution modelling to identify the species and source the geographic origin of fins sold at market. Derived models of species environmental niches indicated that shark fishing effort is concentrated within Exclusive Economic Zones, mostly in coastal Australia, Indonesia, the United States, Brazil, Mexico and Japan. By coupling two distinct tools, barcoding and niche modelling, our results provide new insights for monitoring and enforcement. They suggest stronger local controls of coastal fishing may help regulate the unsustainable global trade in shark fins.

Opportunities for climate-risk reduction through effective fisheries management.

Risk of impact of marine fishes to fishing and climate change (including ocean acidification) depend on the species' ecological and biological characteristics, as well as their exposure to over-exploitation and climate hazards. These human-induced hazards should be considered concurrently in conservation risk assessment. In this study, we aim to examine the combined contributions of climate change and fishing to the risk of impacts of exploited fishes, and the scope for climate-risk reduction from fisheries management. We combine fuzzy logic expert system with species distribution modeling to assess the extinction risks of climate and fishing impacts of 825 exploited marine fish species across the global ocean. We compare our calculated risk index with extinction risk of marine species assessed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Our results show that 60% (499 species) of the assessed species are projected to experience very high risk from both overfishing and climate change under a "business-as-usual" scenario (RCP 8.5 with current status of fisheries) by 2050. The risk index is significantly and positively related to level of IUCN extinction risk (ordinal logistic regression, p < 0.0001). Furthermore, the regression model predicts species with very high risk index would have at least one in five (>20%) chance of having high extinction risk in the next few decades (equivalent to the IUCN categories of vulnerable, endangered or critically endangered). Areas with more at-risk species to climate change are in tropical and subtropical oceans, while those that are at risk to fishing are distributed more broadly, with higher concentration of at-risk species in North Atlantic and South Pacific Ocean. The number of species with high extinction risk would decrease by 63% under the sustainable fisheries-low emission scenario relative to the "business-as-usual" scenario. This study highlights the substantial opportunities for climate-risk reduction through effective fisheries management.

Comparative analysis of climate-induced changes in distribution of representative fish species in the Yellow Sea.

Climate changes are posing remarkable impacts on marine fish and fisheries. Although many studies have addressed the distributional effects of climate change on single fish species or taxa in recent years, comparative studies focusing on different types of fish are still lacking. In this study, we applied dynamic bioclimate envelop models (DBEM), based on three earth system models, to predict sea surface and bottom temperature, as well as the spatial and temporal distribution of nine representative fishes in the Yellow Sea, contain two habitats, i.e., continental shelf benthopelagic (CBD) and continental shelf pelagic-neritic (CPN) fishes, and two thermophilies, i.e., warm temperate (WT) and warm water (WW) fishes. Under a low emissions scenario (RCP 2.6) and a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) between 1970 and 2060, results reveal that: a) CPN fishes show a distinct tendency to move to higher latitudes than CBD fishes, and WW fishes show a significant tendency to migrate more widely to the north than WT fishes; b) The relative abundance of CPN fishes is expected to be higher than that of CBD fishes, while there is no apparent difference in relative abundance between WW fishes and WT fishes. The main reasons for this difference are presumed to be: variance of temperature rise between the sea surface and bottom layers, divergent adaptations of the species, and disparate degrees of anthropogenic influence.

Trophic amplification: A model intercomparison of climate driven changes in marine food webs.

Marine animal biomass is expected to decrease in the 21st century due to climate driven changes in ocean environmental conditions. Previous studies suggest that the magnitude of the decline in primary production on apex predators could be amplified through the trophodynamics of marine food webs, leading to larger decreases in the biomass of predators relative to the decrease in primary production, a mechanism called trophic amplification. We compared relative changes in producer and consumer biomass or production in the global ocean to assess the extent of trophic amplification. We used simulations from nine marine ecosystem models (MEMs) from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Models Intercomparison Project forced by two Earth System Models under the high greenhouse gas emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5) and a scenario of no fishing. Globally, total consumer biomass is projected to decrease by 16.7 ± 9.5% more than net primary production (NPP) by 2090-2099 relative to 1995-2014, with substantial variations among MEMs and regions. Total consumer biomass is projected to decrease almost everywhere in the ocean (80% of the world's oceans) in the model ensemble. In 40% of the world's oceans, consumer biomass was projected to decrease more than NPP. Additionally, in another 36% of the world's oceans consumer biomass is expected to decrease even as projected NPP increases. By analysing the biomass response within food webs in available MEMs, we found that model parameters and structures contributed to more complex responses than a consistent amplification of climate impacts of higher trophic levels. Our study provides additional insights into the ecological mechanisms that will impact marine ecosystems, thereby informing model and scenario development.

Discovering marine biodiversity in the 21st century.

We review the current knowledge of the biodiversity of the ocean as well as the levels of decline and threat for species and habitats. The lack of understanding of the distribution of life in the ocean is identified as a significant barrier to restoring its biodiversity and health. We explore why the science of taxonomy has failed to deliver knowledge of what species are present in the ocean, how they are distributed and how they are responding to global and regional to local anthropogenic pressures. This failure prevents nations from meeting their international commitments to conserve marine biodiversity with the results that investment in taxonomy has declined in many countries. We explore a range of new technologies and approaches for discovery of marine species and their detection and monitoring. These include: imaging methods, molecular approaches, active and passive acoustics, the use of interconnected databases and citizen science. Whilst no one method is suitable for discovering or detecting all groups of organisms many are complementary and have been combined to give a more complete picture of biodiversity in marine ecosystems. We conclude that integrated approaches represent the best way forwards for accelerating species discovery, description and biodiversity assessment. Examples of integrated taxonomic approaches are identified from terrestrial ecosystems. Such integrated taxonomic approaches require the adoption of cybertaxonomy approaches and will be boosted by new autonomous sampling platforms and development of machine-speed exchange of digital information between databases.

Genomic evidence for global ocean plankton biogeography shaped by large-scale current systems.

Biogeographical studies have traditionally focused on readily visible organisms, but recent technological advances are enabling analyses of the large-scale distribution of microscopic organisms, whose biogeographical patterns have long been debated. Here we assessed the global structure of plankton geography and its relation to the biological, chemical, and physical context of the ocean (the 'seascape') by analyzing metagenomes of plankton communities sampled across oceans during the Tara Oceans expedition, in light of environmental data and ocean current transport. Using a consistent approach across organismal sizes that provides unprecedented resolution to measure changes in genomic composition between communities, we report a pan-ocean, size-dependent plankton biogeography overlying regional heterogeneity. We found robust evidence for a basin-scale impact of transport by ocean currents on plankton biogeography, and on a characteristic timescale of community dynamics going beyond simple seasonality or life history transitions of plankton.

Oceans are brimming with life invisible to our eyes, a myriad of species of bacteria, viruses and other microscopic organisms essential for the health of the planet. These 'marine plankton' are unable to swim against currents and should therefore be constantly on the move, yet previous studies have suggested that distinct species of plankton may in fact inhabit different oceanic regions. However, proving this theory has been challenging; collecting plankton is logistically difficult, and it is often impossible to distinguish between species simply by examining them under a microscope. However, within the last decade, a research schooner called Tara has travelled the globe to gather thousands of plankton samples. At the same time, advances in genomics have made it possible to identify species based only on fragments of their DNA sequence. To understand the hidden geography of plankton communities in Earth's oceans, Richter et al. pored over DNA from the Tara Oceans expedition. This revealed that, despite being unable to resist the flow of water, various planktonic species which live close to the surface manage to occupy distinct, stable provinces shaped by currents. Different sizes of plankton are distributed in different sized provinces, with the smallest organisms tending to inhabit the smallest areas. Comparing DNA similarities and speeds of currents at the ocean surface revealed how these might stretch and mix plankton communities. Plankton play a critical role in the health of the ocean and the chemical cycles of planet Earth. These results could allow deeper investigation by marine modellers, ecologists, and evolutionary biologists. Meanwhile, work is already underway to investigate how climate change might impact this hidden geography.

Marine high temperature extremes amplify the impacts of climate change on fish and fisheries.

Extreme temperature events have occurred in all ocean basins in the past two decades with detrimental impacts on marine biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and services. However, global impacts of temperature extremes on fish stocks, fisheries, and dependent people have not been quantified. Using an integrated climate-biodiversity-fisheries-economic impact model, we project that, on average, when an annual high temperature extreme occurs in an exclusive economic zone, 77% of exploited fishes and invertebrates therein will decrease in biomass while maximum catch potential will drop by 6%, adding to the decadal-scale mean impacts under climate change. The net negative impacts of high temperature extremes on fish stocks are projected to cause losses in fisheries revenues and livelihoods in most maritime countries, creating shocks to fisheries social-ecological systems particularly in climate-vulnerable areas. Our study highlights the need for rapid adaptation responses to extreme temperatures in addition to carbon mitigation to support sustainable ocean development.

The transboundary nature of the world's exploited marine species.

Regulatory boundaries and species distributions often do not align. This is especially the case for marine species crossing multiple Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs). Such movements represent a challenge for fisheries management, as policies tend to focus at the national level, yet international collaborations are needed to maximize long-term ecological, social and economic benefits of shared marine species. Here, we combined species distributions and the spatial delineation of EEZs at the global level to identify the number of commercially exploited marine species that are shared between neighboring nations. We found that 67% of the species analyzed are transboundary (n = 633). Between 2005 and 2014, fisheries targeting these species within global-EEZs caught on average 48 million tonnes per year, equivalent to an average of USD 77 billion in annual fishing revenue. For select countries, over 90% of their catch and economic benefits were attributable to a few shared resources. Our analysis suggests that catches from transboundary species are declining more than those from non-transboundary species. Our study has direct implications for managing fisheries targeting transboundary species, highlighting the need for strengthened effective and equitable international cooperation.

Modelling spatiotemporal trends in range shifts of marine commercial fish species driven by climate change surrounding the Antarctic Peninsula.

In recent decades, the relationships between species distributional shifts and climate change have been investigated at various geographic scales, yet there is still a gap in understanding the impacts of climate change on marine commercial fish species surrounding the Antarctic Peninsula. The dynamic bioclimate envelope model (DBEM) is a mechanistic model that encompass species distribution model and population dynamic model approaches to project the spatiotemporal change of marine commercial fish species driven by various climate change scenarios in the Southern Ocean. This paper focuses on the spatiotemporal changes of marine commercial fish species surrounding the Antarctic Peninsula under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) and a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) from 1970 to 2060 following three different Earth System Models (ESMs), namely, the GFDL-ESM 2G, IPSL-CM5A-MR and MPI-ESM-MR. Results reveal that: i) The general latitudinal gradient patterns in species richness shifts poleward associated with a global abundance decrease ii) The Spp. richness in Eastern Antarctic Peninsula (EAP) is higher than in the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) at the same latitude (>65°S latitude). iii) The reasons are that the krill-dependent predators in WAP could face a higher risk of depletion than that in EAP due to ocean warming and anthropogenic activities.

Towards a global understanding of the drivers of marine and terrestrial biodiversity.

Understanding the distribution of life's variety has driven naturalists and scientists for centuries, yet this has been constrained both by the available data and the models needed for their analysis. Here we compiled data for over 67,000 marine and terrestrial species and used artificial neural networks to model species richness with the state and variability of climate, productivity, and multiple other environmental variables. We find terrestrial diversity is better predicted by the available environmental drivers than is marine diversity, and that marine diversity can be predicted with a smaller set of variables. Ecological mechanisms such as geographic isolation and structural complexity appear to explain model residuals and also identify regions and processes that deserve further attention at the global scale. Improving estimates of the relationships between the patterns of global biodiversity, and the environmental mechanisms that support them, should help in efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate change and provide guidance for adapting to life in the Anthropocene.

Contrasting effects of rising temperatures on trophic interactions in marine ecosystems.

In high-latitude marine environments, primary producers and their consumers show seasonal peaks of abundance in response to annual light cycle, water column stability and nutrient availability. Predatory species have adapted to this pattern by synchronising life-history events such as reproduction with prey availability. However, changing temperatures may pose unprecedented challenges by decoupling the predator-prey interactions. Here we build a predator-prey model accounting for the full life-cycle of fish and zooplankton including their phenology. The model assumes that fish production is bottom-up controlled by zooplankton prey abundance and match or mismatch between predator and prey phenology, and is parameterised based on empirical findings of how climate influences phenology and prey abundance. With this model, we project possible climate-warming effects on match-mismatch dynamics in Arcto-boreal and temperate biomes. We find a strong dependence on synchrony with zooplankton prey in the Arcto-boreal fish population, pointing towards a possible pronounced population decline with warming because of frequent desynchronization with its zooplankton prey. In contrast, the temperate fish population appears better able to track changes in prey timing and hence avoid strong population decline. These results underline that climate change may enhance the risks of predator-prey seasonal asynchrony and fish population declines at higher latitudes.