Long term trends in natriuretic peptide testing for heart failure in UK primary care: a cohort study.

AIMS: Heart failure (HF) is a malignant condition with poor outcomes and is often diagnosed on emergency hospital admission. Natriuretic peptide (NP) testing in primary care is recommended in international guidelines to facilitate timely diagnosis. We aimed to report contemporary trends in NP testing and subsequent HF diagnosis rates over time. METHODS AND RESULTS: Cohort study using linked primary and secondary care data of adult (≥45 years) patients in England 2004-18 (n = 7 212 013, 48% male) to report trends in NP testing (over time, by age, sex, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status) and HF diagnosis rates. NP test rates increased from 0.25 per 1000 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.23-0.26] in 2004 to 16.88 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 16.73-17.03) in 2018, with a significant upward trend in 2010 following publication of national HF guidance. Women and different ethnic groups had similar test rates, and there was more NP testing in older and more socially deprived groups as expected. The HF detection rate was constant over the study period (around 10%) and the proportion of patients without NP testing prior to diagnosis remained high [99.6% (n = 13 484) in 2004 vs. 76.7% (n = 12 978) in 2017]. CONCLUSION: NP testing in primary care has increased over time, with no evidence of significant inequalities, but most patients with HF still do not have an NP test recorded prior to diagnosis. More NP testing in primary care may be needed to prevent hospitalization and facilitate HF diagnosis at an earlier, more treatable stage.

Estimated stroke risk, yield, and number needed to screen for atrial fibrillation detected through single time screening: a multicountry patient-level meta-analysis of 141,220 screened individuals.

BACKGROUND: The precise age distribution and calculated stroke risk of screen-detected atrial fibrillation (AF) is not known. Therefore, it is not possible to determine the number needed to screen (NNS) to identify one treatable new AF case (NNS-Rx) (i.e., Class-1 oral anticoagulation [OAC] treatment recommendation) in each age stratum. If the NNS-Rx is known for each age stratum, precise cost-effectiveness and sensitivity simulations can be performed based on the age distribution of the population/region to be screened. Such calculations are required by national authorities and organisations responsible for health system budgets to determine the best age cutoffs for screening programs and decide whether programs of screening should be funded. Therefore, we aimed to determine the exact yield and calculated stroke-risk profile of screen-detected AF and NNS-Rx in 5-year age strata. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A systematic review of Medline, Pubmed, and Embase was performed (January 2007 to February 2018), and AF-SCREEN international collaboration members were contacted to identify additional studies. Twenty-four eligible studies were identified that performed a single time point screen for AF in a general ambulant population, including people ≥65 years. Authors from eligible studies were invited to collaborate and share patient-level data. Statistical analysis was performed using random effects logistic regression for AF detection rate, and Poisson regression modelling for CHA2DS2-VASc scores. Nineteen studies (14 countries from a mix of low- to middle- and high-income countries) collaborated, with 141,220 participants screened and 1,539 new AF cases. Pooled yield of screening was greater in males across all age strata. The age/sex-adjusted detection rate for screen-detected AF in ≥65-year-olds was 1.44% (95% CI, 1.13%-1.82%) and 0.41% (95% CI, 0.31%-0.53%) for <65-year-olds. New AF detection rate increased progressively with age from 0.34% (<60 years) to 2.73% (≥85 years). Neither the choice of screening methodology or device, the geographical region, nor the screening setting influenced the detection rate of AF. Mean CHA2DS2-VASc scores (n = 1,369) increased with age from 1.1 (<60 years) to 3.9 (≥85 years); 72% of ≥65 years had ≥1 additional stroke risk factor other than age/sex. All new AF ≥75 years and 66% between 65 and 74 years had a Class-1 OAC recommendation. The NNS-Rx is 83 for ≥65 years, 926 for 60-64 years; and 1,089 for <60 years. The main limitation of this study is there are insufficient data on sociodemographic variables of the populations and possible ascertainment biases to explain the variance in the samples. CONCLUSIONS: People with screen-detected AF are at elevated calculated stroke risk: above age 65, the majority have a Class-1 OAC recommendation for stroke prevention, and >70% have ≥1 additional stroke risk factor other than age/sex. Our data, based on the largest number of screen-detected AF collected to date, show the precise relationship between yield and estimated stroke risk profile with age, and strong dependence for NNS-RX on the age distribution of the population to be screened: essential information for precise cost-effectiveness calculations.

Implementing physical activity calorie equivalent (PACE) food labelling: Views of a nationally representative sample of adults in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Nutritional labels aim to support people to make informed healthy food choices, but many people do not understand the meaning of calories on food labels. Another approach is to provide calorie information with an interpretation of what the calorie content of food means for energy expenditure, known as physical activity calorie equivalent (PACE) labelling. PACE aims to illustrate how many minutes of physical activity are equivalent to the calories contained in food/drinks. This study investigated the views of the public about the possible implementation of PACE labelling. METHODS: Data was obtained from a nationally representative sample of adults in the United Kingdom and collected by UK Ipsos KnowledgePanel. Panellists are recruited via a random probability unclustered address-based sampling method. 4,000 panellists were randomly invited to participate and asked to compare their views about traffic light and PACE labelling preferences and behaviour parameters. RESULTS: Data were analysed descriptively and using logistic and multinomial regression analyses. 2,668/4,000 (67%) of those invited participated. More participants preferred traffic light (43%vs33%) than PACE labelling, but more reported PACE was easier to understand (41%vs27%) and more likely to catch their attention (49%vs31%). More participants thought PACE was more likely to help them avoid high calorie food than traffic light labelling (44%vs28%). Physically active (3-4 or 5+ days/week) respondents were more likely to report PACE would catch their attention than traffic light labelling, compared with less active participants (weighted adjusted relative risk ratio = 1.42 (1.00-2.00) and 1.45 (1.03-2.05 respectively)). Perceived overweight was the most predictive factor (weighted adjusted OR = 2.24 (1.19 to 4.20)) in whether PACE was considered useful in helping people decide what to eat/buy. CONCLUSION: The public identified value to their health in labelling food with PACE information. PACE labelling may be a useful approach to complement current approaches to food labelling.

Long term changes in health-related quality of life for people with heart failure: the ECHOES study.

AIMS: Heart failure (HF) impairs all aspects of health-related quality of life (HRQoL), but little is known about the effect of developing HF on HRQoL over time. We aimed to report changes in HRQoL over a 13-year period. METHODS AND RESULTS: HRQoL was measured in the Echocardiographic Heart of England Screening (ECHOES) study and the ECHOES-X follow-up study (N = 1618) using the SF-36 questionnaire (Version 1). Mixed modelling compared changes in HRQoL across diagnostic groups, adjusting for potential predictors and design variables. Patients who had developed HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) or HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) at rescreening had significantly greater reduction in physical functioning (PF) and role physical (RP) scores compared with those without HF; adjusted mean difference in PF: HFrEF -16.1, [95% confidence interval (CI) -22.2 to -10.1]; HFpEF -14.6, (95% CI -21.2 to -8.1); in RP: HFrEF -20.7, (95% CI -31.8 to -9.7); HFpEF -19.3, (95% CI -31.0 to -7.6). Changes in HRQoL of those with a HF diagnosis at baseline and rescreen, with exception of role emotion, were similar to those without HF but started from a much lower baseline score. CONCLUSIONS: People with a new diagnosis of HF at rescreening had a significant reduction in HRQoL. Conversely, for those with HF detected on initial screening, little change was observed in HRQoL scores on rescreening. Further research is required to understand the development of HF over time and to test interventions designed to prevent decline in HRQoL, potentially through earlier diagnosis and treatment optimization.

Body mass index and survival in people with heart failure.

AIMS: In people with heart failure (HF), a high body mass index (BMI) has been linked with better outcomes ('obesity paradox'), but there is limited evidence in community populations across long-term follow-up. We aimed to examine the association between BMI and long-term survival in patients with HF in a large primary care cohort. METHODS: We included patients with incident HF aged ≥45 years from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (2000-2017). We used Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox regression and penalised spline methods to assess the association of pre-diagnostic BMI, based on WHO classification, with all-cause mortality. RESULTS: There were 47 531 participants with HF (median age 78.0 years (IQR 70-84), 45.8% female, 79.0% white ethnicity, median BMI 27.1 (IQR 23.9-31.0)) and 25 013 (52.6%) died during follow-up. Compared with healthy weight, people with overweight (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.81, risk difference (RD) -4.1%), obesity class I (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.80, RD -4.5%) and class II (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.81, RD -4.5%) were at decreased risk of death, whereas people with underweight were at increased risk (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.45 to 1.75, RD 11.2%). In those underweight, this risk was greater among men than women (p value for interaction=0.02). Class III obesity was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality compared with overweight (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.29). CONCLUSION: The U-shaped relationship between BMI and long-term all-cause mortality suggests a personalised approach to identifying optimal weight may be needed for patients with HF in primary care. Underweight people have the poorest prognosis and should be recognised as high-risk.

Diagnostic accuracy of natriuretic peptide screening for left ventricular systolic dysfunction in the community: systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIMS: Heart failure (HF) is a global health burden and new strategies to achieve timely diagnosis and early intervention are urgently needed. Natriuretic peptide (NP) testing can be used to screen for left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD), but evidence on test performance is mixed, and international HF guidelines differ in their recommendations. Our aim was to summarize the evidence on diagnostic accuracy of NP screening for LVSD in general and high-risk community populations and estimate optimal screening thresholds. METHODS: We searched relevant databases up to August 2020 for studies with a screened community population of over 100 adults reporting NP performance to diagnose LVSD. Study inclusion, quality assessment, and data extraction were conducted independently and in duplicate. Diagnostic test meta-analysis used hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curves to obtain estimates of pooled accuracy to detect LVSD, with optimal thresholds obtained to maximize the sum of sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS: Twenty-four studies were identified, involving 26 565 participants: eight studies in high-risk populations (at least one cardiovascular risk factor), 12 studies in general populations, and four in both high-risk and general populations combined. For detecting LVSD in screened high-risk populations with N-terminal prohormone brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), the pooled sensitivity was 0.87 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73-0.94] and specificity 0.84 (95% CI 0.55-0.96); for BNP, sensitivity was 0.75 (95% CI 0.65-0.83) and specificity 0.78 (95% CI 0.72-0.84). Heterogeneity between studies was high with variations in positivity threshold. Due to a paucity of high-risk studies that assessed NP performance at multiple thresholds, it was not possible to calculate optimal thresholds for LVSD screening in high-risk populations alone. To provide an indication of where the positivity threshold might lie, the pooled accuracy for LVSD screening in high-risk and general community populations were combined and gave an optimal cut-off of 311 pg/mL [sensitivity 0.74 (95% CI 0.53-0.88), specificity 0.85 (95% CI 0.68-0.93)] for NT-proBNP and 49 pg/mL [sensitivity 0.68 (95% CI 0.45-0.85), specificity 0.81 (0.67-0.90)] for BNP. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that in high-risk community populations NP screening may accurately detect LVSD, potentially providing an important opportunity for diagnosis and early intervention. Our study highlights an urgent need for further prospective studies, as well as an individual participant data meta-analysis, to more precisely evaluate diagnostic accuracy and identify optimal screening thresholds in specifically defined community-based populations to inform future guideline recommendations.

Natriuretic peptide testing and heart failure diagnosis in primary care: diagnostic accuracy study.

BACKGROUND: Natriuretic peptide (NP) testing is recommended for patients presenting to primary care with symptoms of chronic heart failure (HF) to prioritise referral for diagnosis. AIM: To report NP test performance at European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline referral thresholds. DESIGN AND SETTING: Diagnostic accuracy study using linked primary and secondary care data (2004 to 2018). METHOD: The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of NP testing for HF diagnosis was assessed. RESULTS: In total, 229 580 patients had an NP test and 21 102 (9.2%) were diagnosed with HF within 6 months. The ESC NT-proBNP threshold ≥125 pg/mL had a sensitivity of 94.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 94.2 to 95.0) and specificity of 50.0% (95% CI = 49.7 to 50.3), compared with sensitivity of 81.7% (95% CI = 81.0 to 82.3) and specificity of 80.3% (95% CI = 80.0 to 80.5) for the NICE NT-proBNP ≥400 pg/mL threshold. PPVs for an NT-proBNP test were 16.4% (95% CI = 16.1 to 16.6) and 30.0% (95% CI = 29.6 to 30.5) for ESC and NICE thresholds, respectively. For both guidelines, nearly all patients with an NT-proBNP level below the threshold did not have HF (NPV: ESC 98.9%, 95% CI = 98.8 to 99.0 and NICE 97.7%, 95% CI = 97.6 to 97.8). CONCLUSION: At the higher NICE chronic HF guideline NP thresholds, one in five cases are initially missed in primary care but the lower ESC thresholds require more diagnostic assessments. NP is a reliable 'rule-out' test at both cut-points. The optimal NP threshold will depend on the priorities and capacity of the healthcare system.

A cluster randomised controlled trial of an occupational therapy intervention for residents with stroke living in UK care homes (OTCH): study protocol.

BACKGROUND: The occupational therapy (OT) in care homes study (OTCH) aims to investigate the effect of a targeted course of individual OT (with task training, provision of adaptive equipment, minor environmental adaptations and staff education) for stroke survivors living in care homes, compared to usual care. METHODS/DESIGN: A cluster randomised controlled trial of United Kingdom (UK) care homes (n = 90) with residents (n = 900) who have suffered a stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA), and who are not receiving end-of-life care. Homes will be stratified by centre and by type of care provided and randomised (50:50) using computer generated blocked randomisation within strata to receive either the OT intervention (3 months intervention from an occupational therapist) or control (usual care). Staff training on facilitating independence and mobility and the use of adaptive equipment, will be delivered to every home, with control homes receiving this after the 12 month follow-up.Allocation will be concealed from the independent assessors, but the treating therapists, and residents will not be masked to the intervention. Measurements are taken at baseline prior to randomisation and at 3, 6 and 12 months post randomisation. The primary outcome measure is independence in self-care activities of daily living (Barthel Activities of Daily Living Index). Secondary outcome measures are mobility (Rivermead Mobility Index), mood (Geriatric Depression Scale), preference based quality of life measured from EQ-5D and costs associated with each intervention group. Quality adjusted life years (QALYs) will be derived based on the EQ-5D scores. Cost effectiveness analysis will be estimated and measured by incremental cost effectiveness ratio. Adverse events will be recorded. DISCUSSION: This study will be the largest cluster randomised controlled trial of OT in care homes to date and will clarify the currently inconclusive literature on the efficacy of OT for stroke and TIA survivors residing in care homes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN00757750.

Prevalence of atrial fibrillation in the general population and in high-risk groups: the ECHOES study.

AIMS: To establish the prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the general population in the UK, and in those with risk factors. METHODS AND RESULTS: The prevalence of AF on electrocardiography was established in prospectively selected groups: 3960 randomly selected from the population, aged 45+; 782 with a previous diagnosis of heart failure; and 1062 with a record of myocardial infarction, hypertension, angina, or diabetes. Patients were also assessed clinically and with echocardiography. Mortality was tracked for 8 years. Atrial fibrillation was found in 78 of the random population sample (2.0%). Prevalence was 1.6% in women and 2.4% in men, rising with age from 0.2% in those aged 45-54 to 8.0% in those aged 75 and older. Half of all cases were in patients aged 75 and older. Only 23 of the 78 (29.5%) of those in AF took warfarin. Of the 782 patients, 175 (22.4%) with a diagnosis of heart failure were in AF, with normal left ventricular function in 95 (54.3%) of these. Atrial fibrillation was found in 14 of the 244 (5.7%) of those with a history of myocardial infarction, 15 of the 388 (3.9%) of those with hypertension, 15 of the 321 (4.7%) of those with angina, and 11 of the 208 (5.3%) of diabetics. Adjusting for age and sex, mortality was 1.57 times higher for those in AF. CONCLUSION: Atrial fibrillation is common in the elderly and those with clinical risk factors. Screening these groups would identify many with AF. Use of anticoagulation was low at the time of the initial assessments in the late 1990s; practice may have changed recently.

A cross-sectional study of quality of life in an elderly population (75 years and over) with atrial fibrillation: secondary analysis of data from the Birmingham Atrial Fibrillation Treatment of the Aged study.

AIMS: To compare the quality of life (QoL) of those in atrial fibrillation (AF) aged 75 years and over with that of the general population, to explore what factors affect the QoL of those with AF, and to assess the sensitivity of the EuroQol (EQ-5D) and Short-Form 12 (SF-12) generic health questionnaires in detecting differences in health status in those with AF in this age group. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study population was 1762 men and women aged 75 years and over with confirmed AF who attended a randomization clinic for the Birmingham Atrial Fibrillation Treatment of the Aged (BAFTA) study, a primary care based trial of stroke prevention. Patients self-completed the EQ-5D and SF-12 questionnaires, and a simple measure of disability (Rankin). Cardiovascular co-morbidities were collected and number of drugs used as an additional proxy for co-morbidity. Quality-of-life outcomes were compared with general population samples of the same age. On multiple regression, female gender, greater medication use, and disability were independently associated with lower QoL scores in AF. Those in AF with a Rankin score ≥2 had lower QoL scores, while those with a Rankin score <2 had higher scores than the general population. Increasing co-morbidity was associated with reduced QoL scores, with the EQ-5D and SF-12 Physical Component Score showing similar sensitivity to these associations, and the SF-12 Mental Component Score showing less sensitivity. CONCLUSION: In the absence of co-morbidity, chronic AF has little impact on generic QoL in an elderly non-acutely ill population.

The REFER (REFer for EchocaRdiogram) protocol: a prospective validation of a clinical decision rule, NT-proBNP, or their combination, in the diagnosis of heart failure in primary care. Rationale and design.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure is a major cause of mortality and morbidity. As mortality rates are high, it is important that patients seen by general practitioners with symptoms suggestive of heart failure are identified quickly and treated appropriately. Identifying patients with heart failure or deciding which patients need further tests is a challenge. All patients with suspected heart failure should be diagnosed using objective tests such as echocardiography, but it is expensive, often delayed, and limited by the significant skill shortage of trained echocardiographers. Alternative approaches for diagnosing heart failure are currently limited. Clinical decision tools that combine clinical signs, symptoms or patient characteristics are designed to be used to support clinical decision-making and validated according to strict methodological procedures. The REFER Study aims to determine the accuracy and cost-effectiveness of our previously derived novel, simple clinical decision rule, a natriuretic peptide assay, or their combination, in the triage for referral for echocardiography of symptomatic adult patients who present in general practice with symptoms suggestive of heart failure. METHODS/DESIGN: This is a prospective, Phase II observational, diagnostic validation study of a clinical decision rule, natriuretic peptides or their combination, for diagnosing heart failure in primary care. Consecutive adult primary care patients 55 years of age or over presenting to their general practitioner with a chief complaint of recent new onset shortness of breath, lethargy or peripheral ankle oedema of over 48 hours duration, with no obvious recurrent, acute or self-limiting cause will be enrolled. Our reference standard is based upon a three step expert specialist consensus using echocardiography and clinical variables and tests. DISCUSSION: Our clinical decision rule offers a potential solution to the diagnostic challenge of providing a timely and accurate diagnosis of heart failure in primary care. Study results will provide an evidence-base from which to develop heart failure care pathway recommendations and may be useful in standardising care. If demonstrated to be effective, the clinical decision rule will be of interest to researchers, policy makers and general practitioners worldwide. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN17635379.

The effectiveness of exercise as a treatment for postnatal depression: study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Postnatal depression can have a substantial impact on the woman, the child and family as a whole. Thus, there is a need to examine different ways of helping women experiencing postnatal depression; encouraging them to exercise may be one way. A meta analysis found some support for exercise as an adjunctive treatment for postnatal depression but the methodological inadequacy of the few small studies included means that it is uncertain whether exercise reduces symptoms of postnatal depression. We aim to determine whether a pragmatic exercise intervention that involves one-to-one personalised exercise consultations and telephone support plus usual care in women with postnatal depression, is superior to usual care only, in reducing symptoms of postnatal depression. METHODS: We aim to recruit 208 women with postnatal depression in the West Midlands. Recently delivered women who meet the ICD-10 diagnosis for depression will be randomised to usual care plus exercise or usual care only. The exercise intervention will be delivered over 6 months. The primary outcome measure is difference in mean Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale score between the groups at six month follow-up. Outcome measures will be assessed at baseline and at six and 12 month post randomisation. DISCUSSION: Findings from the research will inform future clinical guidance on antenatal and postnatal mental health, as well as inform practitioners working with postnatal depression. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN84245563.

Natriuretic peptide level at heart failure diagnosis and risk of hospitalisation and death in England 2004-2018.

OBJECTIVE: Heart failure (HF) is a malignant condition requiring urgent treatment. Guidelines recommend natriuretic peptide (NP) testing in primary care to prioritise referral for specialist diagnostic assessment. We aimed to assess association of baseline NP with hospitalisation and mortality in people with newly diagnosed HF. METHODS: Population-based cohort study of 40 007 patients in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink in England with a new HF diagnosis (48% men, mean age 78.5 years). We used linked primary and secondary care data between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2018 to report one-year hospitalisation and 1-year, 5-year and 10-year mortality by NP level. RESULTS: 22 085 (55%) participants were hospitalised in the year following diagnosis. Adjusted odds of HF-related hospitalisation in those with a high NP (NT-proBNP >2000 pg/mL) were twofold greater (OR 2.26 95% CI 1.98 to 2.59) than a moderate NP (NT-proBNP 400-2000 pg/mL). All-cause mortality rates in the high NP group were 27%, 62% and 82% at 1, 5 and 10 years, compared with 19%, 50% and 77%, respectively, in the moderate NP group and, in a competing risks model, risk of HF-related death was 50% higher at each timepoint. Median time between NP test and HF diagnosis was 101 days (IQR 19-581). CONCLUSIONS: High baseline NP is associated with increased HF-related hospitalisation and poor survival. While healthcare systems remain under pressure from the impact of COVID-19, research to test novel strategies to prevent hospitalisation and improve outcomes-such as a mandatory two-week HF diagnosis pathway-is urgently needed.

Diagnosing heart failure in primary care: individual patient data meta-analysis of two European prospective studies.

AIMS: Natriuretic peptides are helpful in detecting chronic heart failure (HF) in primary care; however, there are a lack of data evaluating thresholds recommended by clinical guidelines. This study assesses the diagnostic accuracy of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) using combined individual patient data from two studies in the UK and the Netherlands. METHODS AND RESULTS: Random effects methods were used to estimate the performance characteristics of NT-proBNP thresholds recommended by the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines. New onset HF was diagnosed in 313 of 1073 (29.2%) participants. Age, sex, and atrial fibrillation-adjusted NT-proBNP was a better predictor of HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) than HF preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), with area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.82 95% CI (0.78 to 0.86) vs. 0.71 (0.66 to 0.75). In persons aged 70 years and over, the ESC threshold at 125 ng/L for detection of all-cause HF had summary negative predictive value (NPV) of 84.9% (81.6 to 88.2), positive predictive value (PPV) 68.1% (63.1 to 73.3), sensitivity 74.9% (69.5 to 80.3), and specificity 80.1% (76.9 to 83.4); the NICE threshold at 400 ng/L had summary NPV of 74.7% (72.1 to 77.2), PPV 81.8% (73.3 to 89.5), sensitivity 43.5% (37.2 to 49.8), and specificity 94.5% (92.3 to 96.7). CONCLUSIONS: N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide is better at detecting HFrEF than HFpEF in a primary care setting. In persons aged 70 and over, the ESC threshold of 125 ng/L is more accurate at detecting and excluding HF than the higher level suggested in NICE guidelines. More prospective data are required to establish the optimal NP threshold for detecting chronic HF in general practice.

National trends in heart failure mortality in men and women, United Kingdom, 2000-2017.

AIMS: To understand gender differences in the prognosis of women and men with heart failure, we compared mortality, cause of death and survival trends over time. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analysed UK primary care data for 26 725 women and 29 234 men over age 45 years with a new diagnosis of heart failure between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2017 using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, inpatient Hospital Episode Statistics and the Office for National Statistics death registry. Age-specific overall survival and cause-specific mortality rates were calculated by gender and year. During the study period 15 084 women and 15 822 men with heart failure died. Women were on average 5 years older at diagnosis (79.6 vs. 74.8 years). Median survival was lower in women compared to men (3.99 vs. 4.47 years), but women had a 14% age-adjusted lower risk of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.84-0.88]. Heart failure was equally likely to be cause of death in women and men (HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.96-1.12). There were modest improvements in survival for both genders, but these were greater in men. The reduction in mortality risk in women was greatest for those diagnosed in the community (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.80-0.85). CONCLUSIONS: Women are diagnosed with heart failure older than men but have a better age-adjusted prognosis. Survival gains were less in women over the last two decades. Addressing gender differences in heart failure diagnostic and treatment pathways should be a clinical and research priority.

Survival of people with valvular heart disease in a large, English community-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Valvular heart disease (VHD) is present in half the population aged >65 years but is usually mild and of uncertain importance. We investigated the association between VHD and its phenotypes with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. METHODS: The OxVALVE (Oxford Valvular Heart Disease) population cohort study screened 4009 participants aged >65 years to establish the presence and severity of VHD. We linked data to a national mortality registry and undertook detailed outcome analysis. RESULTS: Mortality data were available for 3511 participants, of whom 361 (10.3%) died (median 6.49 years follow-up). Most had some form of valve abnormality (n=2645, 70.2%). In adjusted analyses, neither mild VHD (prevalence 44.9%) nor clinically significant VHD (moderate or severe stenosis or regurgitation; 5.2%) was associated with increased all-cause mortality (HR 1.20, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.51 and HR 1.47, 95% CI 0.94 to 2.31, respectively). Conversely, advanced aortic sclerosis (prevalence 2.25%) and advanced mitral annular calcification (MAC, 1.31%) were associated with an increased risk of death (HR 2.05, 95% CI 1.28 to 3.30 and HR 2.51, 95% CI 1.41 to 4.49, respectively). Mortality was highest for people with both clinically significant VHD and advanced aortic sclerosis or MAC (HR 4.38, 95% CI 1.99 to 9.67). CONCLUSIONS: Advanced aortic sclerosis or MAC is associated with a worse outcome, particularly for patients with significant VHD, but also in the absence of other VHD. Older patients with mild VHD can be reassured about their prognosis. The absence of an association between significant VHD and mortality may reflect its relatively low prevalence in our cohort.

Survival of patients with chronic heart failure in the community: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIM: To provide reliable survival estimates for people with chronic heart failure and explain variation in survival by key factors including age at diagnosis, left ventricular ejection fraction, decade of diagnosis, and study setting. METHODS AND RESULTS: We searched in relevant databases from inception to August 2018 for non-interventional studies reporting survival rates for patients with chronic or stable heart failure in any ambulatory setting. Across the 60 included studies, there was survival data for 1.5 million people with heart failure. In our random effects meta-analyses the pooled survival rates at 1 month, 1, 2, 5 and 10 years were 95.7% (95% confidence interval 94.3-96.9), 86.5% (85.4-87.6), 72.6% (67.0-76.6), 56.7% (54.0-59.4) and 34.9% (24.0-46.8), respectively. The 5-year survival rates improved between 1970-1979 and 2000-2009 across healthcare settings, from 29.1% (25.5-32.7) to 59.7% (54.7-64.6). Increasing age at diagnosis was significantly associated with a reduced survival time. Mortality was lowest in studies conducted in secondary care, where there were higher reported prescribing rates of key heart failure medications. There was significant heterogeneity among the included studies in terms of heart failure diagnostic criteria, participant co-morbidities, and treatment rates. CONCLUSION: These results can inform health policy and individual patient advanced care planning. Mortality associated with chronic heart failure remains high despite steady improvements in survival. There remains significant scope to improve prognosis through greater implementation of evidence-based treatments. Further research exploring the barriers and facilitators to treatment is recommended.

Trends in survival after a diagnosis of heart failure in the United Kingdom 2000-2017: population based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To report reliable estimates of short term and long term survival rates for people with a diagnosis of heart failure and to assess trends over time by year of diagnosis, hospital admission, and socioeconomic group. DESIGN: Population based cohort study. SETTING: Primary care, United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: Primary care data for 55 959 patients aged 45 and overwith a new diagnosis of heart failure and 278 679 age and sex matched controls in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2017 and linked to inpatient Hospital Episode Statistics and Office for National Statistics mortality data. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Survival rates at one, five, and 10 years and cause of death for people with and without heart failure; and temporal trends in survival by year of diagnosis, hospital admission, and socioeconomic group. RESULTS: Overall, one, five, and 10 year survival rates increased by 6.6% (from 74.2% in 2000 to 80.8% in 2016), 7.2% (from 41.0% in 2000 to 48.2% in 2012), and 6.4% (from 19.8% in 2000 to 26.2% in 2007), respectively. There were 30 906 deaths in the heart failure group over the study period. Heart failure was listed on the death certificate in 13 093 (42.4%) of these patients, and in 2237 (7.2%) it was the primary cause of death. Improvement in survival was greater for patients not requiring admission to hospital around the time of diagnosis (median difference 2.4 years; 5.3 v 2.9 years, P<0.001). There was a deprivation gap in median survival of 0.5 years between people who were least deprived and those who were most deprived (4.6 v 4.1 years, P<0.001) [corrected]. CONCLUSIONS: Survival after a diagnosis of heart failure has shown only modest improvement in the 21st century and lags behind other serious conditions, such as cancer. New strategies to achieve timely diagnosis and treatment initiation in primary care for all socioeconomic groups should be a priority for future research and policy.

Evaluation of the Birmingham IBS symptom questionnaire.

BACKGROUND: Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS) is a chronic/common condition that causes a significant effect on the individual (reduced quality of life), society (time lost off work) and health services. Comparison of studies evaluating the management of IBS has been hindered by the lack of a widely adopted validated symptom score. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a disease specific score to measure the symptoms of patients with IBS. METHODS: A self-administered 14-item symptom questionnaire (based on Rome II criteria) was mailed to 533 persons included in a prevalence study of IBS. The reliability of each underlying dimension identified was measured by Cronbach's alpha. Validity was assessed by comparing symptom scores with concurrent IBS specific quality of life (QoL) scores. Reproducibility was measured by the test-retest method and responsiveness measured by effect size. RESULTS: 379 (71%) questionnaires were returned. The underlying dimensions identified were pain, diarrhoea and constipation. Cronbach's alpha was 0.74 for pain, 0.90 for diarrhoea and 0.79 for constipation. Pain and diarrhoea dimensions had good external validity (r = -0.3 to -0.6), constipation dimension had moderate external validity (r = -0.2 to -0.3). All dimensions were reproducible (ICCs 0.75 to 0.81). Effect sizes of 0.27 to 0.53 were calculated for those with a reported improvement in symptoms. CONCLUSION: The Birmingham IBS Symptom Questionnaire has been developed and tested. It has been shown to be suitable for self-completion and acceptable to patients. The questionnaire has 3 internal dimensions which have good reliability, external validity and are responsive to a change in health status.

Standardisation of rates using logistic regression: a comparison with the direct method.

BACKGROUND: Standardisation of rates in health services research is generally undertaken using the direct and indirect arithmetic methods. These methods can produce unreliable estimates when the calculations are based on small numbers. Regression based methods are available but are rarely applied in practice. This study demonstrates the advantages of using logistic regression to obtain smoothed standardised estimates of the prevalence of rare disease in the presence of covariates. METHODS: Step by step worked examples of the logistic and direct methods are presented utilising data from BETS, an observational study designed to estimate the prevalence of subclinical thyroid disease in the elderly. Rates calculated by the direct method were standardised by sex and age categories, whereas rates by the logistic method were standardised by sex and age as a continuous variable. RESULTS: The two methods produce estimates of similar magnitude when standardising by age and sex. The standard errors produced by the logistic method were lower than the conventional direct method. CONCLUSION: Regression based standardisation is a practical alternative to the direct method. It produces more reliable estimates than the direct or indirect method when the calculations are based on small numbers. It has greater flexibility in factor selection and allows standardisation by both continuous and categorical variables. It therefore allows standardisation to be performed in situations where the direct method would give unreliable results.