Declining renal function after myocardial infarction predicts poorer long-term outcome.

INTRODUCTION: In-hospital decline in renal function during the immediate post myocardial infarction (MI) period is known to predict poorer outcome; subsequent chronic change in renal function is less well reported. This study sought to track long-term change in renal function after MI, and assess its correlation with the outcome. METHODS AND RESULTS: Individuals who had sustained a first validated MI in the preceding 2.5-11.5 years were identified from the monitoring of trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease (MONICA) register and were invited to undergo a screening process in 1995, and again in 1998. All deaths were recorded up to the end of 2006. Change in renal function between 1995 and 1998 was available for 500 individuals (mean age 61.6+/-7.3 years, 74.8% men). Change in (Delta) calculated estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was normally distributed, with a mean crude fall in eGFR of 1.91+/-9.47 ml/min per 1.73 m. This corresponded to a -1.9+/-13.3% change in eGFR, or -0.8+/-3.6 ml/min/1.73 m2 per year. Delta eGFR correlated negatively with baseline eGFR (r=l-0.307, P<0.001). The first tertile (with the largest decline in eGFR) had an adjusted hazard ratios of 1.86 (1.14-3.03) for all cause mortality and 2.06 (1.13-3.74) for cardiovascular death, compared to the third tertile. A rise in creatinine of greater than 0.3 mg/dl carried adjusted hazard ratios of 2.27 (1.13-4.57) and 3.61 (1.73-7.54) for all cause mortality and cardiovascular death, respectively. CONCLUSION: Chronic change in renal function after MI is predictive of long-term prognosis.

Retrospective analysis of the cost-effectiveness of using plasma brain natriuretic peptide in screening for left ventricular systolic dysfunction in the general population.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to assess the cost-effectiveness of using plasma brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) as a pre-echocardiographic screening test for left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD) in the general population. BACKGROUND: We hypothesized that plasma BNP and simple clinical parameters would reduce the number of echocardiograms needed and cost when screening for LVSD in the general population. METHODS: A random sample of 1,257 community subjects (age 25 to 74 years) was examined. Three risk groups were formed: one group with symptomatic ischemic heart disease (IHD); a second group with blood pressure >160/95 mm Hg and/or an abnormal electrocardiogram (high risk); and a group with none of these risk factors (low risk). The BNP assay was adjusted to give a high sensitivity. RESULTS: Left ventricular systolic dysfunction was prevalent in 0.7% (6/823), 6% (16/269), and 19% (26/140) of low-risk and high-risk subjects and IHD subjects, respectively. Raised BNP concentrations (>8 pg/ml) occurred in 41%, 64%, and 71%. Sensitivities of BNP for detecting LVSD were 83% (5/6), 94% (15/16), and 92% (24/26); and the negative predictive values were 99.8%, 99.0%, and 95.1%. Brain natriuretic peptide was not associated with LVSD in low-risk subjects (p = 0.087), but in IHD subjects (p = 0.015) and high-risk subjects (p = 0.023). Screening high-risk subjects by BNP before echocardiography could have reduced the cost per detected case of LVSD by 26% for the cost ratio of 1/20 (BNP/echocardiogram). CONCLUSIONS: Subjects at low and high risk of LVSD can be identified by simple clinical parameters, and BNP testing further reduces the number of echocardiograms needed and the costs of screening in subjects at risk <75 years of age in the general population.

Patient differences related to management in general practice and the hospital: a cross-sectional study of heart failure in the community.

AIM: To compare patients treated for heart failure in relation to the management in general practices versus hospital admission. METHODS AND RESULTS: Twelve randomly selected general practices (GP) were screened for patients receiving ACE-inhibitor, digoxin, or loop diuretic treatment. The first 500 volunteers of 959 potential subjects were invited to a cardiac examination after exclusion of 235 frail, physically or mentally disabled patients. A diagnosis of heart failure during hospital admission (Hospital-HF, n = 102) was more related (p < 0.05) to male sex (45% vs. 21%), advanced age (73 vs. 70 years), breathlessness (75% vs. 62%), LV systolic dysfunction (47% vs. 20%), objective cardiac abnormality (92% vs. 65%) and higher 4-year mortality (33% vs. 15%) than patients taking loop diuretics due to signs and symptoms of heart failure in GP (GP-HF). Patients without clinical heart failure (n = 301) had the same survival but less symptoms and cardiac abnormalities than GP-HF patients. CONCLUSION: A surplus morbidity and mortality was related to a hospital-based rather than a GP based diagnosis of HF. Patients managed in GP were different from patients entering previous clinical trials of heart failure. We estimate that the pool of patients hospitalised with systolic heart failure would be increased from 1.3 to 1.4 more if all patients from primary care were included.