Effect of Different Durations of Treatment With Antihypertensive Drugs With Anticholinergic Effects on the Risk of Dementia: A Target Trial Emulation Study.

Studying the effect of duration of treatment on prognostic outcomes using real-world data is challenging because only people who survive for a long time can receive a treatment for a long time. Specifying a target trial helps overcome such challenge. We aimed to estimate the effect of different durations of treatment with antihypertensive drugs with anticholinergic properties (AC AHT) on the risk of vascular dementia and Alzheimer's disease by emulating a target trial using the UK CPRD GOLD database (2001-2017). Comparing treatment for 3-6 years versus ≤3 years yielded null results for both types of dementia. Comparing a longer duration of treatment, >6 years versus ≤3 years, yielded a 10-year risk ratio of 0.69 (95% CI, 0.54-0.90) for vascular dementia and 0.91 (95% CI, 0.77-1.10) for Alzheimer's disease. For illustration, we performed an analysis that failed to emulate a target trial by assigning exposure categories using post-baseline information, obtaining implausible beneficial estimates. Our findings indicate a modest benefit of longer duration of treatment with AC AHT on vascular dementia and highlight the value of the target trial emulation to avoid selection bias in the evaluation of the effect of different durations of treatment.

Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and fecundability: a prospective cohort study.

STUDY QUESTION: Is cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) associated with reduced fecundability, defined as the probability of conceiving per menstrual cycle? SUMMARY ANSWER: Overall, we observed no meaningful association between CIN and fecundability, regardless of surgical status, although a recent diagnosis of moderate or severe CIN might be associated with slightly reduced fecundability for 2 years after diagnosis. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: About 15% of couples experience infertility. Few studies have examined the influence of CIN on fertility, and the results have been inconsistent. No study has investigated the association between fecundability and pathologist-reported CIN diagnoses, particularly with respect to the recency of the specific CIN diagnoses. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This prospective cohort study included 9586 women trying to conceive. The women were enrolled from 1 June 2007 to 3 February 2020. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Women were invited to complete a baseline questionnaire and bimonthly follow-up questionnaires for up to 12 months or until pregnancy occurred. Data on cervical cytologies and biopsies were retrieved from The National Pathology Registry (DNPR), which holds records of all cervical specimens examined in Denmark. Women were categorized based on their most severe diagnosis of CIN: no lesion, other cervical changes, mild CIN (CIN1), or moderate/severe CIN (CIN2+) with or without surgery. To investigate the association between CIN and fecundability, we computed fecundability ratios (FR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using a proportional probabilities regression model. We adjusted for age at study entry, partner age, body mass index, smoking status, timing of intercourse, parity, education, number of sexual partners, and household income. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Compared with no lesion, the adjusted FRs (95% CI) for the association between CIN and fecundability were: other cervical lesions, 0.97 (0.91-1.04); CIN1, 1.04 (0.96-1.13); CIN2+ no surgery, 1.00 (0.82-1.22); and CIN2+ with surgery 0.99 (0.89-1.10). The FRs (95% CI) for a recent diagnosis (<2 years) of CIN were 0.98 (0.86-1.11) for other cervical lesions; 1.13 (0.99-1.29) for CIN1; 0.89 (0.62-1.26) for CIN2+ no surgery and 0.91 (0.75-1.10) for CIN2+ with surgery compared with the no lesion group. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: In the analyses, we adjusted for several covariates related to the women. However, we had little information on the male partners which could lead to unmeasured confounding as fecundability is a couple-based measure of fertility. Furthermore, a CIN diagnosis may not be constant as it may regress or progress spontaneously; therefore, it is possible that we have misclassified some women, especially women categorized as having normal cells or CIN1. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Our results contribute important knowledge to women who are concerned about their future fertility after receiving a CIN diagnosis. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This study was funded by The Danish Cancer Society (R167-A11036-17-S2). The overall cohorts were funded by the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R01-HD086742 and R03-HD094117). The authors report no competing interests. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

The association between the use of fertility indicators and fecundability in a Danish preconception cohort.

BACKGROUND: The use of fertility indicators to predict ovulation has largely been studied for contraceptive purposes, while less so as fertility-promoting tools. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between fertility indicators and fecundability in Danish women trying to conceive. METHODS: Web-based preconception cohort study. We analysed data from 11,328 females aged 18-49 years trying to conceive without fertility treatment for ≤6 menstrual cycles, from the Danish SnartGravid.dk and SnartForældre.dk cohorts (2007-2023). Participants reported the use of fertility indicators (counting days since the last menstrual period, cervical fluid monitoring, urinary ovulation testing, feeling ovulation, using a smartphone fertility app and measuring basal body temperature [BBT]). Time to pregnancy was measured in menstrual cycles ascertained by self-reported pregnancy status. We estimated fecundability ratios (FR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using proportional probabilities regression models adjusted for age, socio-economic position, health indicators, reproductive history and gynaecological factors. RESULTS: Fertility indicators were used by 63.3% of participants at study entry. Counting days was the most common (46.9%), while measuring BBT was the least (3.0%). Other indicators ranged from 17.0% to 23.6%, with 69.7% using more than one indicator. Compared with non-use, use of any fertility indicator was associated with greater fecundability (adjusted FR 1.14, 95% CI 1.08, 1.19). Cervical fluid monitoring showed the strongest association (aFR 1.46, 95% CI 1.03, 2.07), followed by urinary ovulation testing (aFR 1.35, 95% CI 1.16, 1.58) and counting days (aFR 1.18, 95% CI 1.09, 1.29). Feeling ovulation and fertility apps were modestly associated with fecundability, while measuring BBT was not associated. Sensitivity analysis restricting to ≤2 cycles of attempt time and two cycles of follow-up showed an aFR for any indicator use of 1.21 (95% CI 1.13, 1.31). CONCLUSION: In this Danish preconception cohort, use of fertility indicators was associated with a higher fecundability, varying by type of indicator.

Staging and clean room: Constructs designed to facilitate transparency and reduce bias in comparative analyses of real-world data.

PURPOSE: We describe constructs designed to protect the integrity of the results from comparative analyses using real-world data (RWD): staging and clean room. METHODS: Staging involves performing sequential preliminary analyses and evaluating the population size available and potential bias before conducting comparative analyses. A clean room involves restricted access to data and preliminary results, policies governing exploratory analyses and protocol deviations, and audit trail. These constructs are intended to allow decisions about protocol deviations, such as changes to design or model specification, to be made without knowledge of how they might affect subsequent analyses. We describe an example for implementing staging with a clean room. RESULTS: Stage 1 may involve selecting a data source, developing and registering a protocol, establishing a clean room, and applying inclusion/exclusion criteria. Stage 2 may involve attempting to achieve covariate balance, often through propensity score models. Stage 3 may involve evaluating the presence of residual confounding using negative control outcomes. After each stage, check points may be implemented when a team of statisticians, epidemiologists and clinicians masked to how their decisions may affect study outcomes, reviews the results. This review team may be tasked with making recommendations for protocol deviations to address study precision or bias. They may recommend proceeding to the next stage, conducting additional analyses to address bias, or terminating the study. Stage 4 may involve conducting the comparative analyses. CONCLUSIONS: The staging and clean room constructs are intended to protect the integrity and enhance confidence in the results of analyses of RWD.

Ambient air pollution and rate of spontaneous abortion.

Spontaneous abortion (SAB), defined as a pregnancy loss before 20 weeks of gestation, affects up to 30% of conceptions, yet few modifiable risk factors have been identified. We estimated the effect of ambient air pollution exposure on SAB incidence in Pregnancy Study Online (PRESTO), a preconception cohort study of North American couples who were trying to conceive. Participants completed questionnaires at baseline, every 8 weeks during preconception follow-up, and in early and late pregnancy. We analyzed data on 4643 United States (U.S.) participants and 851 Canadian participants who enrolled during 2013-2019 and conceived during 12 months of follow-up. We used country-specific national spatiotemporal models to estimate concentrations of particulate matter <2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) during the preconception and prenatal periods at each participant's residential address. On follow-up and pregnancy questionnaires, participants reported information on pregnancy status, including SAB incidence and timing. We fit Cox proportional hazards regression models with gestational weeks as the time scale to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association of time-varying prenatal concentrations of PM2.5, NO2, and O3 with rate of SAB, adjusting for individual- and neighborhood-level factors. Nineteen percent of pregnancies ended in SAB. Greater PM2.5 concentrations were associated with a higher incidence of SAB in Canada, but not in the U.S. (HRs for a 5 µg/m3 increase = 1.29, 95% CI: 0.99, 1.68 and 0.94, 95% CI: 0.83, 1.08, respectively). NO2 and O3 concentrations were not appreciably associated with SAB incidence. Results did not vary substantially by gestational weeks or season at risk. In summary, we found little evidence for an effect of residential ambient PM2.5, NO2, and O3 concentrations on SAB incidence in the U.S., but a moderate positive association of PM2.5 with SAB incidence in Canada.

Preconception Periodontitis and Risk of Spontaneous Abortion in a Prospective Cohort Study.

Few studies have evaluated the association between periodontitis and spontaneous abortion (SAB), and all had limitations. We used data from the Pregnancy Study Online (PRESTO), a prospective preconception cohort study of 3,444 pregnancy planners in the United States and Canada (2019-2022), to address this question. Participants provided self-reported data on periodontitis diagnosis, treatment, and symptoms of severity (i.e., loose teeth) via the enrollment questionnaire. SAB (pregnancy loss at <20 weeks' gestation) was assessed via bimonthly follow-up questionnaires. Participants contributed person-time from the date of a positive pregnancy test to the gestational week of SAB, loss to follow-up, or 20 weeks' gestation, whichever came first. We fitted Cox regression models with weeks of gestation as the time scale to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and we used inverse probability of treatment weighting to account for differential loss to follow-up. We used probabilistic quantitative bias analysis to estimate the magnitude and direction of the effect of exposure misclassification bias on results. In weighted multivariable models, we saw no appreciable association between preconception periodontitis diagnosis (HR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.76, 1.23) or treatment (HR = 1.01, 95% CI: 0.79, 1.27) and SAB. A history of loose teeth was positively associated with SAB (HR = 1.38, 95% CI: 0.88, 2.14). Quantitative bias analysis indicated that our findings were biased towards the null but with considerable uncertainty in the bias-adjusted results.

Socioeconomic status and fecundability in a Danish preconception cohort.

STUDY QUESTION: To what extent is socioeconomic status (SES), as measured by educational attainment and household income, associated with fecundability in a cohort of Danish couples trying to conceive? SUMMARY ANSWER: In this preconception cohort, lower educational attainment and lower household income were associated with lower fecundability after adjusting for potential confounders. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Approximately 15% of couples are affected by infertility. Socioeconomic disparities in health are well established. However, little is known about socioeconomic disparity and its relation to fertility. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This is a cohort study of Danish females aged 18-49 years who were trying to conceive between 2007 and 2021. Information was collected via baseline and bi-monthly follow-up questionnaires for 12 months or until reported pregnancy. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Overall, 10 475 participants contributed 38 629 menstrual cycles and 6554 pregnancies during a maximum of 12 cycles of follow-up. We used proportional probabilities regression models to estimate fecundability ratios (FRs) and 95% CIs. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Compared with upper tertiary education (highest level), fecundability was substantially lower for primary and secondary school (FR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.62-0.85), upper secondary school (FR: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.79-1.00), vocational education (FR: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.75-0.89), and lower tertiary education (FR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.80-0.95), but not for middle tertiary education (FR: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.93-1.03). Compared with a monthly household income of >65 000 DKK, fecundability was lower for household income <25 000 DKK (FR: 0.78, 95% CI: 0.72-0.85), 25 000-39 000 DKK (FR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.82-0.94), and 40 000-65 000 DKK (FR: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.88-0.99). The results did not change appreciably after adjustment for potential confounders. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: We used educational attainment and household income as indicators of SES. However, SES is a complex concept, and these indicators may not reflect all aspects of SES. The study recruited couples planning to conceive, including the full spectrum of fertility from less fertile to highly fertile individuals. Our results may generalize to most couples who are trying to conceive. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Our results are consistent with the literature indicating well-documented inequities in health across socioeconomic groups. The associations for income were surprisingly strong considering the Danish welfare state. These results indicate that the redistributive welfare system in Denmark does not suffice to eradicate inequities in reproductive health. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): The study was supported by the Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University and Aarhus University Hospital, and the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (RO1-HD086742, R21-HD050264, and R01-HD060680). The authors declare no conflict of interest. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

A prospective cohort study of preconception COVID-19 vaccination and miscarriage.

STUDY QUESTION: To what extent is preconception maternal or paternal coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination associated with miscarriage incidence? SUMMARY ANSWER: COVID-19 vaccination in either partner at any time before conception is not associated with an increased rate of miscarriage. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Several observational studies have evaluated the safety of COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy and found no association with miscarriage, though no study prospectively evaluated the risk of early miscarriage (gestational weeks [GW] <8) in relation to COVID-19 vaccination. Moreover, no study has evaluated the role of preconception vaccination in both male and female partners. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: An Internet-based, prospective preconception cohort study of couples residing in the USA and Canada. We analyzed data from 1815 female participants who conceived during December 2020-November 2022, including 1570 couples with data on male partner vaccination. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Eligible female participants were aged 21-45 years and were trying to conceive without use of fertility treatment at enrollment. Female participants completed questionnaires at baseline, every 8 weeks until pregnancy, and during early and late pregnancy; they could also invite their male partners to complete a baseline questionnaire. We collected data on COVID-19 vaccination (brand and date of doses), history of SARS-CoV-2 infection (yes/no and date of positive test), potential confounders (demographic, reproductive, and lifestyle characteristics), and pregnancy status on all questionnaires. Vaccination status was categorized as never (0 doses before conception), ever (≥1 dose before conception), having a full primary sequence before conception, and completing the full primary sequence ≤3 months before conception. These categories were not mutually exclusive. Participants were followed up from their first positive pregnancy test until miscarriage or a censoring event (induced abortion, ectopic pregnancy, loss to follow-up, 20 weeks' gestation), whichever occurred first. We estimated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for miscarriage and corresponding 95% CIs using Cox proportional hazards models with GW as the time scale. We used propensity score fine stratification weights to adjust for confounding. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Among 1815 eligible female participants, 75% had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by the time of conception. Almost one-quarter of pregnancies resulted in miscarriage, and 75% of miscarriages occurred <8 weeks' gestation. The propensity score-weighted IRR comparing female participants who received at least one dose any time before conception versus those who had not been vaccinated was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.63, 1.14). COVID-19 vaccination was not associated with increased risk of either early miscarriage (GW: <8) or late miscarriage (GW: 8-19). There was no indication of an increased risk of miscarriage associated with male partner vaccination (IRR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.56, 1.44). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The present study relied on self-reported vaccination status and infection history. Thus, there may be some non-differential misclassification of exposure status. While misclassification of miscarriage is also possible, the preconception cohort design and high prevalence of home pregnancy testing in this cohort reduced the potential for under-ascertainment of miscarriage. As in all observational studies, residual or unmeasured confounding is possible. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: This is the first study to evaluate prospectively the relation between preconception COVID-19 vaccination in both partners and miscarriage, with more complete ascertainment of early miscarriages than earlier studies of vaccination. The findings are informative for individuals planning a pregnancy and their healthcare providers. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This work was supported by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, the National Institute of Health [R01-HD086742 (PI: L.A.W.); R01-HD105863S1 (PI: L.A.W. and M.L.E.)], the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (R03-AI154544; PI: A.K.R.), and the National Science Foundation (NSF-1914792; PI: L.A.W.). The funders had no role in the study design, data collection, analysis and interpretation of data, writing of the report, or the decision to submit the paper for publication. L.A.W. is a fibroid consultant for AbbVie, Inc. She also receives in-kind donations from Swiss Precision Diagnostics (Clearblue home pregnancy tests) and Kindara.com (fertility apps). M.L.E. received consulting fees from Ro, Hannah, Dadi, VSeat, and Underdog, holds stock in Ro, Hannah, Dadi, and Underdog, is a past president of SSMR, and is a board member of SMRU. K.F.H. reports being an investigator on grants to her institution from UCB and Takeda, unrelated to this study. S.H.-D. reports being an investigator on grants to her institution from Takeda, unrelated to this study, and a methods consultant for UCB and Roche for unrelated drugs. The authors report no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Glycemic Load, Dietary Fiber, Added Sugar, and Spontaneous Abortion in Two Preconception Cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Spontaneous abortion (SAB)-pregnancy loss before the 20th week of gestation-has adverse psychological and physical sequelae. Some medical conditions known to affect insulin sensitivity, including polycystic ovary syndrome and diabetes, can affect the risk of SAB. No prior studies have examined glycemic load and incidence of SAB in populations without conditions known to affect insulin sensitivity. OBJECTIVES: We prospectively evaluated the association between preconception glycemic load and intake of carbohydrates, dietary fiber, and added sugar and risk of SAB. METHODS: During 2013-2020, we recruited pregnancy planners from Denmark (SnartForaeldre.dk; SF) and the United States and Canada (Pregnancy Study Online; PRESTO). Participants completed a baseline questionnaire and a cohort-specific FFQ evaluated for validity. We estimated preconception glycemic load and intake of carbohydrates, dietary fiber, and added sugar from individual foods and mixed recipes. We included 2238 SF and 4246 PRESTO participants who reported a pregnancy during the course of the study. SAB data were derived from questionnaires and population registries. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate HRs and 95% CIs. RESULTS: In the study population, 15% of SF participants and 22% of PRESTO participants experienced SAB. Across both cohorts, there was no appreciable association between glycemic load, carbohydrate quality, dietary fiber, or added sugar intake and SAB. Compared with daily mean glycemic load <110, the HR for women with daily mean glycemic load ≥130 was 0.76 (95% CI: 0.52, 1.10) in SF and 1.01 (95% CI: 0.86, 1.19) in PRESTO. CONCLUSIONS: Diets with high glycemic load, carbohydrates, and added sugars were not consistently associated with risk of SAB in parallel analyses of 2 preconception cohort studies of women in North America and Denmark.

Organic food consumption and fecundability in a preconception cohort study of Danish couples trying to conceive.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about potential health effects of eating organic food in relation to reproduction. OBJECTIVE: We examined associations between organic food consumption and fecundability. METHODS: Data were derived from a preconception cohort study of Danish couples trying to conceive (SnartForaeldre.dk, SF). Participants completed a baseline questionnaire on socio-demographics, anthropometrics and lifestyle and a validated food-frequency questionnaire, which included questions on proportions of organic food consumed within six food groups. Participants were followed up with bimonthly questionnaires for up to 12 months or until pregnancy. Analyses were restricted to 2061 participants attempting pregnancy for ≤6 cycles at enrollment and 1303 with <3 cycles. Fecundability ratios (FRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated by proportional probabilities regression models adjusted for potential confounders including age, lifestyle and socioeconomic factors. Associations were examined for vegetables, fruits, cereals, dairy products, eggs and meat, separately, and for the overall pattern of organic food consumption (organic sum score). RESULTS: The final analytic sample comprised 2069 participants. In the full cohort, organic food consumption was not meaningfully associated with fecundability. Among participants <3 cycles of pregnancy attempt at study entry (n = 1303), the FR was 1.11 (95% CI 0.93, 1.33) for the category 'less than half', for 'more than half' the FR was 1.17 (95% CI 0.99, 1.38) and for 'almost everything' the FR was 1.12 (95% CI 0.97, 1.28). CONCLUSION: Higher consumption of organic foods was not meaningfully associated with fecundability, although slightly greater fecundability was seen among participants with <3 cycles of pregnancy attempt time.

Statistical inference and effect measures in abstracts of randomized controlled trials, 1975-2021. A systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the time trend of statistical inference, statistical reporting style of results, and effect measures from the abstracts of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). STUDY DESGIN AND SETTINGS: We downloaded 385,867 PubMed abstracts of RCTs from 1975 to 2021. We used text-mining to detect reporting of statistical inference (p-values, confidence intervals, significance terminology), statistical reporting style of results, and effect measures for binary outcomes, including time-to-event measures. We validated the text mining algorithms by random samples of abstracts. RESULTS: A total of 320 676 abstracts contained statistical inference. The percentage of abstracts including statistical inference increased from 65% (1975) to 87% (2006) and then decreased slightly. From 1975 to 1990, the sole reporting of language regarding statistical significance was predominant. Since 1990, reporting of p-values without confidence intervals has been the most common reporting style. Reporting of confidence intervals increased from 0.5% (1975) to 29% (2021). The two most common effect measures for binary outcomes were hazard ratios and odds ratios. Number needed to treat and number needed to harm are reported in less than 5% of abstracts with binary endpoints. CONCLUSIONS: Reporting of statistical inference in abstracts of RCTs has increased over time. Increasingly, p-values and confidence intervals are reported rather than just mentioning the presence of "statistical significance". The reporting of odds ratios comes with the liability that the untrained reader will interpret them as risk ratios, which is often not justified, especially in RCTs.

Pragmatic considerations for negative control outcome studies to guide non-randomized comparative analyses: A narrative review.

PURPOSE: This narrative review describes the application of negative control outcome (NCO) methods to assess potential bias due to unmeasured or mismeasured confounders in non-randomized comparisons of drug effectiveness and safety. An NCO is assumed to have no causal relationship with a treatment under study while subject to the same confounding structure as the treatment and outcome of interest; an association between treatment and NCO then reflects the potential for uncontrolled confounding between treatment and outcome. METHODS: We focus on two recently completed NCO studies that assessed the comparability of outcome risk for patients initiating different osteoporosis medications and lipid-lowering therapies, illustrating several ways in which confounding may result. In these studies, NCO methods were implemented in claims-based data sources, with the results used to guide the decision to proceed with comparative effectiveness or safety analyses. RESULTS: Based on this research, we provide recommendations for future NCO studies, including considerations for the identification of confounding mechanisms in the target patient population, the selection of NCOs expected to satisfy required assumptions, the interpretation of NCO effect estimates, and the mitigation of uncontrolled confounding detected in NCO analyses. We propose the use of NCO studies prior to initiating comparative effectiveness or safety research, providing information on the potential presence of uncontrolled confounding in those comparative analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Given the increasing use of non-randomized designs for regulatory decision-making, the application of NCO methods will strengthen study design, analysis, and interpretation of real-world data and the credibility of the resulting real-world evidence.

The influence of meteorological factors on COVID-19 spread in Italy during the first and second wave.

The relation between meteorological factors and COVID-19 spread remains uncertain, particularly with regard to the role of temperature, relative humidity and solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation. To assess this relation, we investigated disease spread within Italy during 2020. The pandemic had a large and early impact in Italy, and during 2020 the effects of vaccination and viral variants had not yet complicated the dynamics. We used non-linear, spline-based Poisson regression of modeled temperature, UV and relative humidity, adjusting for mobility patterns and additional confounders, to estimate daily rates of COVID-19 new cases, hospital and intensive care unit admissions, and deaths during the two waves of the pandemic in Italy during 2020. We found little association between relative humidity and COVID-19 endpoints in both waves, whereas UV radiation above 40 kJ/m2 showed a weak inverse association with hospital and ICU admissions in the first wave, and a stronger relation with all COVID-19 endpoints in the second wave. Temperature above 283 K (10 °C/50 °F) showed a strong non-linear negative relation with COVID-19 endpoints, with inconsistent relations below this cutpoint in the two waves. Given the biological plausibility of a relation between temperature and COVID-19, these data add support to the proposition that temperature above 283 K, and possibly high levels of solar UV radiation, reduced COVID-19 spread.

Stroke and Risk of Mental Disorders Compared With Matched General Population and Myocardial Infarction Comparators.

BACKGROUND: Accurate estimates of risks of poststroke outcomes from large population-based studies can provide a basis for public health policy decisions. We examined the absolute and relative risks of a spectrum of incident mental disorders following ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage. METHODS: During 2004 to 2018, we used Danish registries to identify patients (≥18 years and with no hospital history of mental disorders), with a first-time ischemic stroke (n=76 767) or intracerebral hemorrhage (n=9344), as well as age-,sex-, and calendar year-matched general population (n=464 840) and myocardial infarction (n=92 968) comparators. We computed risk differences, considering death a competing event, and hazard ratios adjusted for income, occupation, education, and history of cardiovascular and noncardiovascular comorbidity. RESULTS: Compared with the general population, following ischemic stroke, the 1-year risk difference was 7.3% (95% CI, 7.0-7.5) for mood disorders (driven by depression), 1.4% (95% CI, 1.3-1.5) for organic brain disorders (driven by dementia and delirium), 0.8% (95% CI, 0.7-0.8) for substance abuse disorders (driven by alcohol and tobacco abuse), and 0.5% (95% CI, 0.4-0.5) for neurotic disorders (driven by anxiety and stress disorders). For suicide, risk differences were near null. Hazard ratios were particularly elevated in the first year of follow-up, ranging from a 2- to a 4-fold increased hazard, decreasing thereafter. Compared with myocardial infarction patients, the 1-year risk difference was 4.9% (95% CI, 4.6 to 5.3) for mood disorders, 1.0% (95% CI, 0.8 to 1.1) for organic brain disorders, 0.1% (95% CI, 0.0 to 0.2) for substance abuse disorders, but -0.2% (95% CI, -0.2 to -0.1) for neurotic disorders. Hazard ratios during the first year of follow-up were elevated 1.1- to 1.8-fold for mood, organic brain, and neurotic disorders, while decreased 0.8-fold for neurotic disorders. CONCLUSIONS: The considerably greater risks of mental disorders following a stroke, particularly mood disorders, underline the importance of mental health evaluation after stroke.

A Prospective Cohort Study of COVID-19 Vaccination, SARS-CoV-2 Infection, and Fertility.

Some reproductive-aged individuals remain unvaccinated against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) because of concerns about potential adverse effects on fertility. Using data from an internet-based preconception cohort study, we examined the associations of COVID-19 vaccination and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection with fertility among couples trying to conceive spontaneously. We enrolled 2,126 self-identified female participants aged 21-45 year residing in the United States or Canada during December 2020-September 2021 and followed them through November 2021. Participants completed questionnaires every 8 weeks on sociodemographics, lifestyle, medical factors, and partner information. We fit proportional probabilities regression models to estimate associations between self-reported COVID-19 vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection in both partners with fecundability (i.e., the per-cycle probability of conception), adjusting for potential confounders. COVID-19 vaccination was not appreciably associated with fecundability in either partner (female fecundability ratio (FR) = 1.08, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.95, 1.23; male FR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.83, 1.10). Female SARS-CoV-2 infection was not strongly associated with fecundability (FR = 1.07, 95% CI: 0.87, 1.31). Male infection was associated with a transient reduction in fecundability (for infection within 60 days, FR = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.47, 1.45; for infection after 60 days, FR = 1.16, 95% CI: 0.92, 1.47). These findings indicate that male SARS-CoV-2 infection may be associated with a short-term decline in fertility and that COVID-19 vaccination does not impair fertility in either partner.

A Prospective Cohort Study of Seasonal Variation in Spontaneous Abortion.

BACKGROUND: Up to 30% of pregnancies end in spontaneous abortion, yet few risk factors have been identified. Examining seasonal patterns in risk of spontaneous abortion can generate new hypotheses regarding environmental and lifestyle determinants. METHODS: We used data from Pregnancy Study Online-a preconception cohort study of pregnancy planners from the United States and Canada-to examine seasonal variation in spontaneous abortion risk. We enrolled 12,197 women during 2013 to 2020, 6104 of whom reported a conception within 12 months of enrollment. On follow-up questionnaires, participants reported date of spontaneous abortion and weeks gestation at time of loss. We used periodic regression to estimate two aspects of seasonal occurrence: peak/low ratio-a measure of intensity of seasonal variation-and peak timing. We examined season at risk (from the date of each gestational week) in relation to spontaneous abortion; in a secondary analysis, we examined season of conception in relation to spontaneous abortion. We controlled for seasonal patterns in attempt initiation via month the pregnancy attempt began. RESULTS: Almost 20% of women experienced spontaneous abortion. Risk was highest in late August, with a peak/low ratio of 1.3 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.1, 1.6). This seasonal pattern was evident almost exclusively for spontaneous abortion at <8 weeks since the last menstrual period date (peak/low ratio = 1.4; 95% CI = 1.2, 1.8), and associations were stronger among women living in the Southern and Midwestern United States. CONCLUSIONS: Environmental or lifestyle factors more prevalent in late summer may be associated with increased risk of early spontaneous abortion.

Dietary folate intake and fecundability in two preconception cohorts.

STUDY QUESTION: To what extent is dietary folate intake and total folate intake (dietary and supplemental intakes) associated with fecundability, the per cycle probability of conception? SUMMARY ANSWER: Preconception dietary folate intake was positively associated with fecundability in a monotonic pattern. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Supplemental folic acid has been associated with improved fertility, but little is known about the relation between dietary folate and fecundability. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A prospective cohort study including 9559 women trying to conceive without fertility treatment and enrolled in the period 2013-2020. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: We used data from two internet-based prospective cohort studies of pregnancy planners from Denmark, where folic acid fortification is not performed (SnartForældre.dk (SF); n = 3755) and North America, where the food supply is fortified with folic acid (Pregnancy Study Online (PRESTO); n = 5804). Women contributed menstrual cycles at risk until they reported conception or experienced a censoring event. We used proportional probabilities regression models to compute fecundability ratios (FRs) and 95% CI, adjusting for potential confounders. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Compared with a dietary folate intake ≥400 µg/day, the adjusted FRs for women in SF were 0.92 (95% CI: 0.85-0.99) for intake 250-399 µg/day, and 0.80 (95% CI: 0.68-0.94) for intake of <250 µg/day. The corresponding FRs in PRESTO were 0.95 (95% CI: 0.89-1.01) and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.65-1.00). Compared with the highest level of total folate intake (diet folate ≥400 µg/day plus folic acid supplementation), in both cohorts fecundability was lowest among women with the lowest dietary intake <250 µg/day dietary folate and no supplementation (FR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.59-0.98 [SF] and 0.49, 95% CI: 0.31-0.77 [PRESTO]). Further, total intake dietary folate <250 µg/day plus supplementation was associated with reduced fecundability for SF participants (FR; 0.79, 95% CI: 0.65-0.98) and for PRESTO participants (FR; 0.92, 95% CI: 0.72-1.16). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: It is unknown whether dietary folate and folic acid intake affect fecundability on its own or if there is an interaction with other micronutrients provided in healthy diet. Thus, the observed associations may not reflect dietary folate intake alone, but overall healthy diet. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Recommendations for preconception dietary folate intake and folic acid supplementation are of importance not only to prevent neural tube defects but also to enhance fecundability. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): The study was supported by the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R01-HD086742). The authors report no competing interests. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Predictors of Non-Response to a Sexual Health Survey in a North American Preconception Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Refusal to participate in studies related to sexual health can compromise the internal and external validity of findings. Research examining non-response to sexual health studies has primarily focused on predictors such as specific sexual attitudes and behaviors. AIM: Evaluate predictors of non-response to a supplemental sexual health survey added to a web-based cohort study, focusing on predictors that may be important in epidemiologic studies of sexual health. METHODS: In March 2021, we added the "Sexual Health and Wellbeing Questionnaire" (SQ), an optional supplemental sexual health survey, to the protocol for Pregnancy Study Online , a web-based North American prospective cohort study. Eligible participants identified as female and were aged 21-45 years, actively trying to conceive, and in a relationship with a male partner. Participants completed a baseline questionnaire at enrollment and follow-up questionnaires every 8 weeks. Participants were invited to complete the SQ 30 days after baseline questionnaire completion. The analytic sample included all Pregnancy Study Online participants who enrolled between March 2021 and December 2021 and was divided into 3 mutually-exclusive groups: (i) those who completed the baseline questionnaire only (ie, did not complete a follow-up questionnaire or the SQ), (ii) those who completed at least 1 follow-up questionnaire but not the SQ, and (iii) participants who completed the SQ (with or without a follow-up questionnaire). We compared sociodemographic, medical, lifestyle, and reproductive factors across these groups. RESULTS: Of the 1,491 enrolled participants, 302 (20.3%) completed the baseline questionnaire only, 259 (17.4%) completed a follow-up questionnaire but not the SQ, and 930 (62.4%) completed the SQ. Strong predictors of non-response (absolute difference in response >10% comparing SQ responders to baseline-only responders) included longer pregnancy attempt time at study entry, a history of infertility, and lower income and education. Compared with response to the follow-up questionnaire only, SQ response was lower among Hispanic/Latina participants and participants aged <25 years. CLINICAL TRANSLATION: The addition of sexual health surveys to established cohort studies may be an effective way to expand epidemiologic sex research efforts. STRENGTHS & LIMITATIONS: Study strengths include the prospective design, geographic heterogeneity of the cohort, and use of online methods. Our findings may not generalize to clinic-based sex research. CONCLUSION: We report that in an established North American cohort study, response to the SQ exceeded 60%. We observed few strong predictors for SQ non-response among engaged participants. Bond JC, Abrams J, Wesselink AK, et al. Predictors of Non-Response to a Sexual Health Survey in a North American Preconception Cohort Study. J Sex Med 2022;19:1707-1715.

Air pollution and fecundability: Results from a Danish preconception cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Animal and epidemiologic studies indicate that air pollution may adversely affect fertility. Epidemiologic studies have been restricted largely to couples undergoing fertility treatment or have retrospectively ascertained time-to-pregnancy among pregnant women. OBJECTIVES: We examined the association between residential ambient air pollution and fecundability, the per-cycle probability of conception, in a large preconception cohort of Danish pregnancy planners. METHODS: During 2007-2018, we used the Internet to recruit and follow women who were trying to conceive without the use of fertility treatment. Participants completed an online baseline questionnaire eliciting socio-demographic characteristics, lifestyle factors, and medical and reproductive histories and follow-up questionnaires every 8 weeks to ascertain pregnancy status. We determined concentrations of ambient nitrogen oxides (NOx ), nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3 ), particulate matter <2.5 µm (PM2.5 ) and <10 µm (PM10 ), and sulphur dioxide (SO2 ) at each participant's residential address. We calculated average exposure during the year before baseline, during each menstrual cycle over follow-up and during the entire pregnancy attempt time. We used proportional probabilities regression models to estimate fecundability ratios (FRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusting for potential confounders and co-pollutants. The analysis was restricted to the 10,183 participants who were trying to conceive for <12 cycles at study entry whose addresses could be geocoded. RESULTS: During 12 months of follow-up, 73% of participants conceived. Higher concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 were associated with small reductions in fecundability. For example, the FRs for a one interquartile range (IQR) increase in PM2.5 (IQR = 3.2 µg/m3 ) and PM10 (IQR = 5.3 µg/m3 ) during each menstrual cycle were 0.93 (95% CI: 0.87, 0.99) and 0.91 (95% CI: 0.84, 0.99), respectively. Other air pollutants were not appreciably associated with fecundability. CONCLUSIONS: In this preconception cohort study of Danish women, residential exposures to PM2.5 and PM10 were associated with reduced fecundability.

Protein-rich food intake and risk of spontaneous abortion: a prospective cohort study.

PURPOSE: Diet quality is increasingly recognized as important for human reproductive capacity. We studied the association between intake of protein-rich foods and risk of spontaneous abortion (SAB). METHODS: During 2013-2020, we recruited pregnancy planners from the United States and Canada (Pregnancy Study Online; PRESTO) and Denmark (SnartForaeldre.dk; SF). Participants completed a baseline questionnaire and a validated cohort-specific food frequency questionnaire. We estimated preconception intake of red meat, poultry, processed meat, seafood, eggs, plant-based proteins, and dairy from individual foods and mixed recipes. We included 4,246 PRESTO and 2,953 SF participants who reported a pregnancy during the study. Data on SAB were derived from questionnaires and population registries. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), representing the effect of substituting one type of protein-rich food for another. RESULTS: SAB risk was 23% in PRESTO and 16% in SF. In PRESTO, substitution of seafood with other protein-rich foods was associated with higher SAB risk [for example, the HR for replacing 100 g of seafood/week with 100 g of red meat was 1.10 (95% CI 1.00, 1.20)]. In contrast, in SF, substituting seafood with other protein-rich foods was associated with lower SAB risk [HR for replacing 100 g of seafood/week with 100 g of red meat was 0.89 (95% CI 0.82, 0.98)]. Other protein-rich food substitutions were not meaningfully associated with SAB risk. CONCLUSIONS: Preconception intake of protein-rich foods was largely unrelated to SAB risk, with the exception of seafood, which was associated with higher risk of SAB in Denmark, but a lower risk in North America.