The epidemiology of mental and substance use disorders in Australia 2020-22: Prevalence, socio-demographic correlates, severity, impairment and changes over time.

OBJECTIVE: Mental and substance use disorders are the leading causes of disability worldwide. Contemporary estimates of prevalence, severity and impairment are essential for service planning. This study provides estimates of prevalence, severity, impairment and demographic correlates of mental and substance use disorders in 2020-22 and changes in prevalence since 2007. METHODS: Data were from the two Australian National Surveys of Mental Health and Wellbeing conducted in 2020-22 (N = 15,893) and 2007 (N = 8841). Descriptive statistics report prevalence of lifetime and 12-month mental and substance use disorder by sex and age, proportion of people with each mental disorder by levels of severity (mild, moderate and severe) and mean days out of role by mental disorder class (mood, anxiety, substance use). Logistic regression analyses examined demographic correlates of mental disorder class and assessed changes over time. RESULTS: The lifetime prevalence of any mental or substance use disorder in 2020-22 was 40.2%. The 12-month prevalence was 20.2% (mood disorder - 7.4%, anxiety disorder - 15.7% and substance use disorder - 3.1%). Mood disorders were associated with significant impairment. The prevalence of mental disorders has changed over time, with mood and anxiety disorders increasing and substance use disorders decreasing. These changes were most evident among young adults. CONCLUSION: Mental disorders are common in Australia. Impairment associated with mental disorders remains significant. Particular focus should be paid to young adults aged 16-24 years who have shown the largest increases in anxiety and mood disorder prevalence over the past 13 years.

Correlates of mental disorder and harmful substance use in an indigenous Australian urban sample: an analysis of data from the Queensland Urban Indigenous Mental Health Survey.

PURPOSE: Limited data exists on the relationship between sociodemographic and cultural variables and the prevalence of specific mental and substance use disorders (MSDs) among Indigenous Australians, using diagnostic prevalence data. This paper utilises data from the Queensland Urban Indigenous Mental Health Survey (QUIMHS), a population-level diagnostic mental health survey, to identify socioeconomic and cultural correlates of psychological distress and specific MSDs in an urban Indigenous Australian sample. METHODS: Using a mixture of household sampling (door-knocking) and snowball sampling (promotion of the survey in the community), 406 participants aged 18 to 89 were recruited across key locations in Southeast Queensland. The study investigated various demographic, socioeconomic, and cultural factors as predictors of psychological distress (measured by the Kessler-5) and MSD diagnoses (utilising the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, CIDI 3.0) using a series of univariate logistic regressions. RESULTS: Individuals in unstable housing (homeless, sleeping rough) and those reporting financial distress were more likely to experience an MSD in the past 12 months and throughout their lifetime. Individuals reporting lower levels of connection and belonging, limited participation in cultural events, and lower empowerment were more likely to have a lifetime mental disorder. CONCLUSION: This data emphasises the importance of addressing systemic and social determinants of health when designing and delivering community mental health services and underscores the need for holistic approaches when working with Indigenous communities.

Diagnostic accuracy of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI 3.0) in an urban Indigenous Australian sample.

OBJECTIVE: The Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 is a standardised diagnostic interview commonly used in population-based mental health surveys, but has not been used in community-residing Indigenous Australians. This paper seeks to determine whether the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 can produce valid diagnostic information when compared with a diagnostic interview in an urban Indigenous Australian sample. METHOD: This research was conducted over 10 weeks with adult Indigenous clients of two participating Aboriginal Medical Services in South-East Queensland. Using a cross-sectional, repeated-measures design, participants were administered the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 by an Indigenous interviewer and within 2 weeks attended a second appointment with an Indigenous clinical psychologist, who produced a diagnostic summary. The Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 diagnoses were compared with the diagnostic summaries and clinical concordance between the two measures was calculated. RESULTS: The diagnostic accuracy of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 differed by module. The Post-traumatic Stress Disorder and Major Depression modules had good utility in diagnosing post-traumatic stress disorder and major depressive episodes, respectively; however, the Mania module that provides diagnoses of bipolar disorder was found to be unsuitable for this population. Although there were no identified contraindications for the use of the Generalised Anxiety and Alcohol Use Disorder modules, further research on the diagnostic accuracy of these modules is warranted. CONCLUSIONS: The Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 can accurately diagnose some common mental disorders in an Indigenous Australian population, but was found to be unsuitable for others. Given these findings, care should be taken when using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 in epidemiological prevalence studies with Indigenous Australian populations.

Mental disorders in Mexico 1990-2021. Results from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study.

BACKGROUND: Mental disorders are one of the main causes of years lived with disability, although there is a lack of recent estimates of their magnitude. OBJECTIVE: To report the trends of mental disorders prevalence, years lived with disability and years of healthy life lost by sex, age and state in Mexico. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The Global Burden of Disease database for Mexico was used. RESULTS: There were an estimated 18.1 million persons with some mental disorder in 2021, which represented an increase of 15.4% in comparison with 2019. Depressive and anxiety disorders did significantly increase between 2019 and 2021, which is possibly related to COVID-19, the confinement and the situations of grief experienced during the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: Mental disorders have considerably increased since the only national mental health survey that used diagnostic criteria to evaluate their prevalence. It is important to invest in epidemiological studies, prevention and care of mental disorders, which are among the leading causes of years lived with disability in the country.

ANTECEDENTES: Los trastornos mentales constituyen una de las principales causas de años vividos con discapacidad, si bien no se dispone de estimaciones recientes sobre su magnitud. OBJETIVO: Reportar las tendencias de prevalencia de trastornos mentales, los años vividos con discapacidad y los años de vida saludables perdidos por sexo, edad y entidad federativa de México. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Se utilizó la base de datos para México del Global Burden of Disease. RESULTADOS: Se calcularon 18.1 millones de personas con algún trastorno mental en 2021, que representaron un incremento de 15.4 % respecto a 2019. Los trastornos depresivos y de ansiedad aumentaron de manera notable entre 2019 y 2021, lo cual posiblemente esté relacionado con COVID-19, el confinamiento y los duelos vividos durante la pandemia. CONCLUSIONES: Los trastornos mentales se han incrementado considerablemente desde la única encuesta nacional de salud mental que utilizó criterios diagnósticos para evaluar las prevalencias. Es importante invertir en estudios epidemiológicos, prevención y atención de los trastornos mentales, los cuales se encuentran entre las primeras causas de años vividos con discapacidad en el país.

The global gap in treatment coverage for major depressive disorder in 84 countries from 2000-2019: A systematic review and Bayesian meta-regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: The treatment coverage for major depressive disorder (MDD) is low in many parts of the world despite MDD being a major contributor to disability globally. Most existing reviews of MDD treatment coverage do not account for potential sources of study-level heterogeneity that contribute to variation in reported treatment rates. This study aims to provide a comprehensive review of the evidence and analytically quantify sources of heterogeneity to report updated estimates of MDD treatment coverage and gaps by location and treatment type between 2000 and 2019. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A systematic review of the literature was conducted to identify relevant studies that provided data on treatment rates for MDD between January 1, 2000, and November 26, 2021, from 2 online scholarly databases PubMed and Embase. Cohort and cross-sectional studies were included if treatment rates pertaining to the last 12 months or less were reported directly or if sufficient information was available to calculate this along with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Studies were included if they made use of population-based surveys that were representative of communities, countries, or regions under study. Studies were included if they used established diagnostic criteria to diagnose cases of MDD. Sample and methodological characteristics were extracted from selected studies. Treatment rates were modeled using a Bayesian meta-regression approach and adjusted for select covariates that quantified heterogeneity in the data. These covariates included age, sex, treatment type, location, and choice of MDD assessment tool. A total of 149 studies were included for quantitative analysis. Treatment coverage for health service use ranged from 51% [95% UI 20%, 82%] in high-income locations to 20% [95% UI 1%, 53%] in low- and lower middle-income locations. Treatment coverage for mental health service use ranged from 33% [95% UI 8%, 66%] in high-income locations to 8% [95% UI <1%, 36%] in low- and lower middle-income countries. Minimally adequate treatment (MAT) rates ranged from 23% [95% UI 2%, 55%] in high-income countries to 3% [95% UI <1%, 25%]) in low- and lower middle-income countries. A primary methodological limitation was the lack of sufficient data from low- and lower middle-income countries, which precluded our ability to provide more detailed treatment rate estimates. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that the treatment coverage for MDD continues to be low in many parts of the world and in particular in low- and lower middle-income countries. There is a continued need for routine data collection that will help obtain more accurate estimates of treatment coverage globally.

How do Japanese rate the severity of different diseases and injuries?-an assessment of disability weights for 231 health states by 37,318 Japanese respondents.

BACKGROUND: Disability weights (DWs) are weight factors that reflect the severity of health states for estimates of disability-adjusted life years. A new set of global DWs was published for the Global Burden of Diseases and Injuries (GBD) 2013 study, which relied on sampling from various world regions, but included little data for countries in East Asia. This study aimed to measure DWs in Japan using comparable methods, and compare the results with previous estimates from the GBD 2013 DW study. METHODS: We conducted a web-based survey in 2019 to estimate DWs for 231 health states for the Japanese population. The survey included five new health states but otherwise followed the method of the GBD DW measurement study. The survey consisted of 15 paired comparison (PC) questions and 3 population health equivalence questions (PHE) per respondent. We analyzed PC data using probit regression and rescaled results to DW units between 0 (equivalent to full health) and 1 (equivalent to death). FINDINGS: We considered 37,318 nationally representative respondents. The values of the resulting DWs ranged from 0.707 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 0.527-0.842) for spinal cord injury at neck level (untreated) to 0.004 (UI 0.001-0.009) for mild anemia. High correlation between Japanese DW and GBD 2013 DW was observed, but there was considerable disagreement. Out of 226 comparable health states, 55 (24.3%) showed more than a factor-of-two difference, of which 41 (74.6%) had a higher value in Japanese DW. Many of the health states with higher DW in the Japan study were injuries, including amputation and fracture, and hearing and vision loss, while mental, behavioral, and substance use disorders generally tended to be lower. CONCLUSIONS: This study has created an empirical basis for assessment of Japanese DWs of health status. The findings from this study based on the Japanese population suggest that there might be contextual differences in rating the severity of health states compared to previous surveys conducted elsewhere.

Service demand for psychological interventions among Australian adults: a population perspective.

BACKGROUND: Psychological interventions (PIs) are good practice treatment for both subthreshold and diagnosed mental disorders. Australia has implemented major reforms to expand the provision of subsidised psychological services for individuals with a diagnosed mental disorder. But there are gaps in knowledge about demand for PIs (i.e., use of and perceived need for PIs) across the population. This study uses nationally representative survey data from the 2007 Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing to analyse demand for PIs. It also provides a method for analysing survey data to estimate demand for PIs when new survey data becomes available, along with suggestions to inform future survey development. METHODS: Nationally representative community survey respondents (n = 8841, 16-85 years) indicated their perceived need for nine types of help for mental health problems in the past 12 months, including three PIs (cognitive behavioural therapy, psychotherapy, and counselling), and whether these needs were unmet, partially met, or fully met. Types of help were grouped as: PIs only; PIs plus other; and other only. Chi-square analyses were used to examine the association between type of intervention, sociodemographic and clinical factors, and type of professional consulted; multinomial logistic regression models were used to examine predictors of type of intervention(s) received. RESULTS: 7.9% (95%CI: 7.2-8.6) received PIs. Receipt of PIs was positively associated with higher education and consulting a mental health specialist. Twice as many respondents received PIs plus medication as compared to PIs only (4.2% vs. 2.0%). Almost half (45.4, 95%CI 36.5-54.6) incurred out-of-pocket costs for treatment. The most common reason for partially met need for PIs was cost (24.8, 95%CI 17.2-34.3); for unmet need, it was preference for self-management (33.9, 95%CI 21.2-49.5). Perceived unmet need for PIs only (3.1, 95%CI 2.1-4.6) or PIs plus other interventions (5.2, 95%CI 3.9-6.9%) was lower than for other interventions only (22.8, 95%CI 18.7-27.6). CONCLUSIONS: Continued reforms in Australia means that on-going monitoring of demand for PIs, using nationally representative data, is required. This study provides a baseline for comparison of the long-term effects of these reforms; this comparison may be undertaken using data from the third iteration of Australia's NSMHWB, due for completion in 2021-22.

A comprehensive analysis of mortality-related health metrics associated with mental disorders: a nationwide, register-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Systematic reviews have consistently shown that individuals with mental disorders have an increased risk of premature mortality. Traditionally, this evidence has been based on relative risks or crude estimates of reduced life expectancy. The aim of this study was to compile a comprehensive analysis of mortality-related health metrics associated with mental disorders, including sex-specific and age-specific mortality rate ratios (MRRs) and life-years lost (LYLs), a measure that takes into account age of onset of the disorder. METHODS: In this population-based cohort study, we included all people younger than 95 years of age who lived in Denmark at some point between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2015. Information on mental disorders was obtained from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register and the date and cause of death was obtained from the Danish Register of Causes of Death. We classified mental disorders into ten groups and causes of death into 11 groups, which were further categorised into natural causes (deaths from diseases and medical conditions) and external causes (suicide, homicide, and accidents). For each specific mental disorder, we estimated MRRs using Poisson regression models, adjusting for sex, age, and calendar time, and excess LYLs (ie, difference in LYLs between people with a mental disorder and the general population) for all-cause mortality and for each specific cause of death. FINDINGS: 7 369 926 people were included in our analysis. We found that mortality rates were higher for people with a diagnosis of a mental disorder than for the general Danish population (28·70 deaths [95% CI 28·57-28·82] vs 12·95 deaths [12·93-12·98] per 1000 person-years). Additionally, all types of disorders were associated with higher mortality rates, with MRRs ranging from 1·92 (95% CI 1·91-1·94) for mood disorders to 3·91 (3·87-3·94) for substance use disorders. All types of mental disorders were associated with shorter life expectancies, with excess LYLs ranging from 5·42 years (95% CI 5·36-5·48) for organic disorders in females to 14·84 years (14·70-14·99) for substance use disorders in males. When we examined specific causes of death, we found that males with any type of mental disorder lost fewer years due to neoplasm-related deaths compared with the general population, although their cancer mortality rates were higher. INTERPRETATION: Mental disorders are associated with premature mortality. We provide a comprehensive analysis of mortality by different types of disorders, presenting both MRRs and premature mortality based on LYLs, displayed by age, sex, and cause of death. By providing accurate estimates of premature mortality, we reveal previously underappreciated features related to competing risks and specific causes of death. FUNDING: Danish National Research Foundation.

All-Cause and Overdose Mortality Risk Among People Prescribed Opioids: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate all-cause and overdose crude mortality rates and standardized mortality ratios among people prescribed opioids for chronic noncancer pain and risk of overdose death in this population relative to people with similar clinical profiles but not prescribed opioids. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. METHODS: Medline, Embase, and PsycINFO were searched in February 2018 and October 2019 for articles published beginning 2009. Due to limitations in published studies, we revised our inclusion criteria to include cohort studies of people prescribed opioids, excluding those studies where people were explicitly prescribed opioids for the treatment of opioid use disorder or acute cancer or palliative pain. We estimated pooled all-cause and overdose crude mortality rates using random effects meta-analysis models. No studies reported standardized mortality ratios or relative risks. RESULTS: We included 13 cohorts with 6,029,810 participants. The pooled all-cause crude mortality rate, based on 10 cohorts, was 28.8 per 1000 person-years (95% CI = 17.9-46.4), with substantial heterogeneity (I2 = 99.9%). The pooled overdose crude mortality rate, based on six cohorts, was 1.1 per 1000 person-years (95% CI = 0.4-3.4), with substantial heterogeneity (I2 = 99.5%), but indications for opioid prescribing and opioid exposure were poorly ascertained. We were unable to estimate mortality in this population relative to clinically similar populations not prescribed opioids. CONCLUSIONS: Methodological limitations in the identified literature complicate efforts to determine the overdose mortality risk of people prescribed opioids. There is a need for large-scale clinical trials to assess adverse outcomes in opioid prescribing, especially for chronic noncancer pain.

Disordered eating among Australian adolescents: Prevalence, functioning, and help received.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of disordered eating (DE) among Australian adolescents and examine associations with clinical mental health problems, problems with functioning, and help received. METHOD: We analyzed data from the Young Minds Matter survey (n = 2,298, 13-17 years). We derived an index of DE severity with four levels: (1) no DE; (2) subclinical DE; (3) suspected eating disorder; and (4) lifetime eating disorder diagnosis. RESULTS: In 2013-2014, 31.6% (95%CI 35.5-39.9) of Australian adolescents experienced DE, comprising 25.7% (95%CI 23.9-37.6) with subclinical DE, 11.0% (95%CI 9.7-12.6) with a suspected eating disorder, and 0.9% (95%CI 0.6-1.3) with a lifetime eating disorder diagnosis. DE was more common among girls (41.4%, 95%CI 37.9-44.4) than boys (34.0%, 95%CI 31.1-37.0; p = .002). Adolescents with DE, compared to those without, were more likely to experience clinical mental health problems and problems with functioning. Most adolescents with DE reported help-seeking in the past year, commonly self-help; around 40% used school-based, primary care or specialist services (i.e., formal services). In multivariate analyses, the use of more specialized and intensive services was associated with more severe DE, greater problems with functioning, female gender, and 12-month mental disorder or subthreshold mental disorder symptoms. DISCUSSION: The implementation of mental health promotion and prevention efforts for DE, and screening for DE in school and primary care settings, may facilitate detection and appropriate help-seeking among adolescents with DE.

The prevalence and burden of mental and substance use disorders in Australia: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

OBJECTIVES: Timely and accurate assessments of disease burden are essential for developing effective national health policies. We used the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 to examine burden due to mental and substance use disorders in Australia. METHODS: For each of the 20 mental and substance use disorders included in Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, systematic reviews of epidemiological data were conducted, and data modelled using a Bayesian meta-regression tool to produce prevalence estimates by age, sex, geography and year. Prevalence for each disorder was then combined with a disorder-specific disability weight to give years lived with disability, as a measure of non-fatal burden. Fatal burden was measured as years of life lost due to premature mortality which were calculated by combining the number of deaths due to a disorder with the life expectancy remaining at the time of death. Disability-adjusted life years were calculated by summing years lived with disability and years of life lost to give a measure of total burden. Uncertainty was calculated around all burden estimates. RESULTS: Mental and substance use disorders were the leading cause of non-fatal burden in Australia in 2015, explaining 24.3% of total years lived with disability, and were the second leading cause of total burden, accounting for 14.6% of total disability-adjusted life years. There was no significant change in the age-standardised disability-adjusted life year rates for mental and substance use disorders from 1990 to 2015. CONCLUSION: Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 found that mental and substance use disorders were leading contributors to disease burden in Australia. Despite several decades of national reform, the burden of mental and substance use disorders remained largely unchanged between 1990 and 2015. To reduce this burden, effective population-level preventions strategies are required in addition to effective interventions of sufficient duration and coverage.

Implementing two nurse practitioner models of service at an Australian male prison: A quality assurance study.

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: To examine the quality and safety of nurse practitioner services of two newly implemented nurse practitioner models of care at a correctional facility. BACKGROUND: Nurse practitioners could help to meet the physical and mental health needs of Australia's growing prison population; however, the nurse practitioner role has not previously been evaluated in this context. DESIGN: A quality assurance study conducted in an Australian prison where a primary health nurse practitioner and a mental health nurse practitioner were incorporated into an existing primary healthcare service. The study was guided by Donabedian's structure, processes and outcomes framework. METHODS: Routinely collected information included surveys of staff attitudes to the implementation of the nurse practitioner models (n = 21 staff), consultation records describing clinical processes and time use (n = 289 consultations), and a patient satisfaction survey (n = 29 patients). Data were analysed descriptively and compared to external benchmarks where available. RESULTS: Over the two-month period, the nurse practitioners provided 289 consultations to 208 prisoners. The presenting problems treated indicated that most referrals were appropriate. A significant proportion of consultations involved medication review and management. Both nurse practitioners spent more than half of their time on individual patient-related care. Overall, multidisciplinary team staff agreed that the nurse practitioner services were necessary, safe, met patient need and reduced treatment delays. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that the implementation of nurse practitioners into Australian correctional facilities is acceptable and feasible and has the potential to improve prisoners' access to health services. Structural factors (e.g., room availability and limited access to prisoners) may have reduced the efficiency of the nurse practitioners' clinical processes and service implementation. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: Results suggest that nurse practitioner models can be successfully integrated into a prison setting and could provide a nursing career pathway.

The State of US Health, 1990-2016: Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Among US States.

Introduction: Several studies have measured health outcomes in the United States, but none have provided a comprehensive assessment of patterns of health by state. Objective: To use the results of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) to report trends in the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors at the state level from 1990 to 2016. Design and Setting: A systematic analysis of published studies and available data sources estimates the burden of disease by age, sex, geography, and year. Main Outcomes and Measures: Prevalence, incidence, mortality, life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HALE), years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 causes and 84 risk factors with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were computed. Results: Between 1990 and 2016, overall death rates in the United States declined from 745.2 (95% UI, 740.6 to 749.8) per 100 000 persons to 578.0 (95% UI, 569.4 to 587.1) per 100 000 persons. The probability of death among adults aged 20 to 55 years declined in 31 states and Washington, DC from 1990 to 2016. In 2016, Hawaii had the highest life expectancy at birth (81.3 years) and Mississippi had the lowest (74.7 years), a 6.6-year difference. Minnesota had the highest HALE at birth (70.3 years), and West Virginia had the lowest (63.8 years), a 6.5-year difference. The leading causes of DALYs in the United States for 1990 and 2016 were ischemic heart disease and lung cancer, while the third leading cause in 1990 was low back pain, and the third leading cause in 2016 was chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Opioid use disorders moved from the 11th leading cause of DALYs in 1990 to the 7th leading cause in 2016, representing a 74.5% (95% UI, 42.8% to 93.9%) change. In 2016, each of the following 6 risks individually accounted for more than 5% of risk-attributable DALYs: tobacco consumption, high body mass index (BMI), poor diet, alcohol and drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high blood pressure. Across all US states, the top risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs were due to 1 of the 3 following causes: tobacco consumption (32 states), high BMI (10 states), or alcohol and drug use (8 states). Conclusions and Relevance: There are wide differences in the burden of disease at the state level. Specific diseases and risk factors, such as drug use disorders, high BMI, poor diet, high fasting plasma glucose level, and alcohol use disorders are increasing and warrant increased attention. These data can be used to inform national health priorities for research, clinical care, and policy.

The global burden of suicide mortality among people on the autism spectrum: A systematic review, meta-analysis, and extension of estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

We aimed to quantify the risk, mortality, and burden of suicide among autistic persons. We searched PubMed, Embase, and PsycINFO on 5th April 2023 for sources reporting the relative risk (RR) of suicide or suicide attempt among autistic persons (PROSPERO registration: CRD42021265313). Autism spectrum prevalence and suicide mortality and years of life lost (YLLs), were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. RRs pooled via meta-regression and health metrics estimates were used to estimate the excess suicide mortality and YLLs among autistic persons. We sourced 983 unique studies of which ten studies met inclusion criteria, consisting of 10.4 million persons. The pooled RR for suicide for autistic persons was 2·85 (95% UI: 2·05-4·03), which was significantly higher for autistic females than autistic males. No evidence of publication bias was detected via inspection of funnel plot and Egger's test. Globally, we estimated 13 400 excess suicide deaths among autistic persons in 2021, equating to 1·8% of all suicide deaths and 621 000 excess YLLs. Studies were limited in number and geographical coverage. Effective suicide prevention strategies for autistic persons may substantially reduce the fatal burden of suicides globally and reduce the health burden experienced within this population.

Assessing the impact of health-care access on the severity of low back pain by country: a case study within the GBD framework.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) is key for policy making. Low back pain is the leading cause of disability in terms of years lived with disability (YLDs). Due to sparse data, a current limitation of GDB is that a uniform severity distribution is presumed based on 12-Item Short Form Health Survey scores derived from US Medical Expenditure Panel Surveys (MEPS). We present a novel approach to estimate the effect of exposure to health interventions on the severity of low back pain by country and over time. METHODS: We extracted treatment effects for ten low back pain interventions from the Cochrane Database, combining these with coverage data from the MEPS to estimate the hypothetical severity in the absence of treatment in the USA. Severity across countries was then graded using the Health Access and Quality Index, allowing estimates of averted and avoidable burden under various treatment scenarios. FINDINGS: We included 210 trials from 36 Cochrane systematic reviews in the network analysis. The pooled effect sizes (measured as a standardised mean difference) for the most effective intervention classes were -0·460 (95% uncertainty interval -0·606 to -0·309) for a combination of psychological and physical interventions and -0·366 (-0·525 to -0·207) for surgery. Globally, access to treatment averted an estimated 17·6% (14·8 to 23·8) of the low back pain burden in 2020. If all countries had provided access to treatment at a level estimated for Iceland with the highest Health Access and Quality Index score, an extra 9·1% (6·4 to 11·2) of the burden of low back pain could be avoided. Even with full coverage of optimal treatment, a large proportion (65·9% [56·9 to 70·4]) of the low back pain burden is unavoidable. INTERPRETATION: This methodology fills an important shortcoming in the GBD by accounting for low back pain severity variations over time and between countries. Assumptions of unequal treatment access increased YLD estimates in resource-poor settings, with a modest decrease in countries with higher Health Access and Quality Index scores. Nonetheless, the large proportion of unavoidable burden indicates poor intervention efficacy. This method, applicable to other GBD conditions, provides policy makers with insights into health gains from improved treatment and underscores the importance of investing in research for new interventions. FUNDING: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and Queensland Health.

Grading disorder severity and averted burden by access to treatment within the GBD framework: a case study with anxiety disorders.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) estimates burden by cause with major relevance for resource allocators globally. Non-fatal burden estimates are influenced by disorder severity. However, for many disorders, global severity is sourced from a single high-income country survey. We aimed to estimate severity distributions that vary by Healthcare Access Quality Index (HAQI) using anxiety disorders as a case study and present the usefulness of this method in simulating averted and avoidable burden globally. METHODS: In this case study, we estimated treatment use among respondents with anxiety disorder in the 1997 Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing (NSMHWB), the source used to estimate severity of anxiety disorders in GBD. Treatment effects were sourced from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and pooled via network meta-analysis. Severity distribution was established via a meta-regression of their disability weights, derived from 12-item short form survey scores. We simulated the shift in severity across scenarios without access to treatment and with full access to optimal treatment (cognitive behavioural therapy and antidepressants). We interpolated this shift linearly along the HAQI, extrapolated country-specific severity from HAQI scores, and calculated averted and avoidable burden. FINDINGS: The database review sourced 56 reviews, of which eight were eligible for inclusion. These eight reviews reported on 156 randomised controlled trials, with 194 treatment effects. Respondents to the 1997 NSMHWB consisted of 5936 women (55·8%) and 4705 (44·2%) men aged 18 years or older (mean age and ethnicity data not available). The survey-weighted treatment effect size was -0·28 (95% uncertainty interval -0·45 to -0·12). The pooled treatment effect for full coverage optimal treatment was -1·07 (-1·47 to -0·64). The sequela-weighted disability weight among people with anxiety disorder in the NSMHWB was 0·141 (0·042 to 0·275). The estimated disability weight was 0·188 (0·070 to 0·341) after removing the benefits of treatment and 0·056 (0·013 to 0·140) after providing all people with anxiety disorder access to optimal treatment. Globally, 12·5% (4·6 to 21·5) of anxiety disorder burden was averted because of available treatment. However, 71·1% (46·2 to 87·6) of global anxiety disorder burden could be averted if all people with anxiety disorders had access to optimal treatment. INTERPRETATION: Because it is based on guidance from a single survey done in one high-income country, the burden of anxiety disorders in low-income and middle-income countries is probably underestimated by GBD. Despite the availability of effective treatments, low use of these treatments means that most burden is still avoidable. Most of the burden could be averted if all people with anxiety disorders had access to optimal treatment, highlighting the importance of public promotion and referral pathways of treatment for anxiety disorders. Location-specific severity distributions in GBD would greatly increase precision in burden estimates and highlight avertable burden to clinicians, public health practitioners, and policy makers. FUNDING: Queensland Health and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Excess mortality in severe mental disorders: A systematic review and meta-regression.

The excess mortality observed in people with severe mental disorders (SMD) has not improved over time and is not captured in estimates of disease burden. This study aimed to improve upon previous analytic approaches to account for potential sources of heterogeneity in pooled mortality estimates. A systematic review of studies examining excess mortality in people with psychotic disorders and bipolar disorder was conducted. PubMed, EMBASE and PsycINFO were searched from January 1, 1980 to 31/12/20. Studies were eligible if they were longitudinal; the study population was diagnosed according to established criteria, not restricted to subgroups and the disorder was primary and not acute or transient; and mortality was reported in comparison to the general population or a control group without SMD. Meta-regression models were used to calculate pooled relative risks (RRs) of all-cause and cause-specific mortality adjusted for study- and population-level covariates. Risk of bias was assessed using an adaptation of the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. A total of 76 studies were included in the analyses. Covariates incorporated into the final models included age, sex, population type and mid-year. The adjusted RR for all-cause mortality in schizophrenia was 2.89 (95% CI 2.50 to 3.34) and 2.51 (95%CI 2.10 to 3.00) for bipolar disorder. There were larger RRs for broader categories of psychotic disorders. Mortality was elevated in each cause of death examined. Most of the heterogeneity between studies could not be accounted for. Future research should investigate underlying causal pathways and find ways to incorporate the excess mortality associated with SMD into global health estimates.

The contribution of general medical conditions to the non-fatal burden of mental disorders: register-based cohort study in Denmark.

BACKGROUND: General medical conditions (GMCs) often co-occur with mental and substance use disorders (MSDs). AIMS: To explore the contribution of GMCs to the burden of disease in people with MSDs, and investigate how this varied by age. METHOD: A population-based cohort of 6 988 507 persons living in Denmark during 2000-2015 followed for up to 16 years. Danish health registers were used to identify people with MSDs and GMCs. For each MSD, years lived with disability and health loss proportion (HeLP) were estimated for comorbid MSDs and GMCs, using a multiplicative model for disability weights. RESULTS: Those with any MSD lost the equivalent of 43% of healthy life (HeLP = 0.43, 95% CI 0.40-0.44) after including information on GMCs, which was an increase from 25% before including GMCs (HeLP = 0.25, 95% CI 0.23-0.27). Schizophrenia was associated with the highest burden of disease (HeLP = 0.77, 95% CI 0.68-0.85). However, within each disorder, the relative contribution of MSDs and GMCs varied. For example, in those diagnosed with schizophrenia, MSDs and GMCs accounted for 86% and 14% of the total health loss; in contrast, in those with anxiety disorders, the same proportions were 59% and 41%. In general, HeLP increased with age, and was mainly associated with increasing rates of pulmonary, musculoskeletal and circulatory diseases. CONCLUSIONS: In those with mental disorders, the relative contribution of comorbid GMCs to the non-fatal burden of disease increases with age. GMCs contribute substantially to the non-fatal burden of disease in those with MSDs.

The Burden of Proof studies: assessing the evidence of risk.

Exposure to risks throughout life results in a wide variety of outcomes. Objectively judging the relative impact of these risks on personal and population health is fundamental to individual survival and societal prosperity. Existing mechanisms to quantify and rank the magnitude of these myriad effects and the uncertainty in their estimation are largely subjective, leaving room for interpretation that can fuel academic controversy and add to confusion when communicating risk. We present a new suite of meta-analyses-termed the Burden of Proof studies-designed specifically to help evaluate these methodological issues objectively and quantitatively. Through this data-driven approach that complements existing systems, including GRADE and Cochrane Reviews, we aim to aggregate evidence across multiple studies and enable a quantitative comparison of risk-outcome pairs. We introduce the burden of proof risk function (BPRF), which estimates the level of risk closest to the null hypothesis that is consistent with available data. Here we illustrate the BPRF methodology for the evaluation of four exemplar risk-outcome pairs: smoking and lung cancer, systolic blood pressure and ischemic heart disease, vegetable consumption and ischemic heart disease, and unprocessed red meat consumption and ischemic heart disease. The strength of evidence for each relationship is assessed by computing and summarizing the BPRF, and then translating the summary to a simple star rating. The Burden of Proof methodology provides a consistent way to understand, evaluate and summarize evidence of risk across different risk-outcome pairs, and informs risk analysis conducted as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.