Beyond the median: Estimating survival times for patients starting endocrine therapy for estrogen receptor-positive, metastatic breast cancer from recent randomized trials.

AIM: To estimate scenarios for survival for patients with estrogen receptor (ER) positive, metastatic breast cancer (MBC) and to help communicate prognosis to patients starting endocrine therapy (ET) METHODS: We searched for randomized trials of ET for ER-positive MBC and extracted the following percentiles (representative survival scenarios) from each overall survival (OS) curve: 90th (worst-case), 75th (lower-typical), 50th (median), 25th (upper-typical), and 10th (best-case). We then assessed the accuracy of estimating these percentiles for each OS curve by multiplying the median OS by four simple multiples: 0.25 (to estimate the 90th percentile), 0.5 (75th), 2 (25th), and 3 (10th). Estimates were deemed accurate if it fell within 0.75-1.33 times the actual value. RESULTS: We identified 25 trials with 10,566 patients. The median OS (interquartile range) was: 61.3 months (53.4-64.8) for first-line ET with cyclin-dependant kinase 4/6 inhibitors (four treatment groups); 42.6 months (40.9-50.4) for first-line ET alone (21 treatment groups) and 29.2 months (24.8-33.4) for subsequent line ET (19 treatment groups). Simple multiples of the median OS accurately estimated the 90th percentile in 80%; 75th percentile in 93%; and 25th percentile in 76% of curves. The 10th percentile was only available for four OS curves and could not be evaluated. CONCLUSION: Simple multiples of the median OS are a helpful and accurate method to assist in estimating and discussing scenarios for survival for MBC patients starting ET. Longer follow-up of trials is required to help clinicians estimate the best-case scenario.

A phase 1 trial of 4-(N-(S-penicillaminylacetyl)amino)-phenylarsonous acid (PENAO) in patients with advanced solid tumours.

PURPOSE: This phase I study was conducted to evaluate the safety and Maximum Tolerated Dose of PENAO (4-(N-(S-penicillaminylacetyl)amino)-phenylarsonous acid), a second-generation organic arsenical with anti-mitochondrial activity, when given as a continuous intravenous infusion (CIVI), in patients with advanced solid tumours. METHODS: Eligibility criteria for this trial included age ≥ 18 years, advanced solid tumour, ECOG Performance Status ≤ 1 and adequate organ function. PENAO was administered by CIVI, with dose levels initially increased by infusion duration in a 21-day cycle at a fixed daily dose and then increased daily dose. Standard dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) definitions were used in a "3 + 3" design. Patients had regular monitoring of toxicity and efficacy. Pharmacokinetic assays of serum and urine As were performed. RESULTS: Twenty-six patients were treated across 8 dose levels. The only dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) observed was fatigue, that occurred in one patient treated at the highest dose level of 9 mg/m2/day. No significant organ toxicity or objective responses were observed, although there were two patients with stable disease lasting up to 7 months. Pharmacokinetic analysis unexpectedly indicated a half-life of 9-19 days, invalidating the CIVI dosing resulting in discontinuation of the study before the RP2D was defined. CONCLUSIONS: PENAO was administered by CIVI at dose levels up to 9 mg/m2/day with only one DLT noted. Pharmacokinetic studies invalidated the rationale for continuous dosing and led to discontinuation of the trial without defining a RP2D. Future clinical development of PENAO will use intermittent dosing schedule, alone and in combination with rapamycin.