Differential patterns of reproductive and lifestyle risk factors for breast cancer according to birth cohorts among women in China, Japan and Korea.

BACKGROUND: The birth cohort effect has been suggested to influence the rate of breast cancer incidence and the trends of associated reproductive and lifestyle factors. We conducted a cohort study to determine whether a differential pattern of associations exists between certain factors and breast cancer risk based on birth cohorts. METHODS: This was a cohort study using pooled data from 12 cohort studies. We analysed associations between reproductive (menarche age, menopause age, parity and age at first delivery) and lifestyle (smoking and alcohol consumption) factors and breast cancer risk. We obtained hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis on the 1920s, 1930s, 1940s and 1950s birth cohorts. RESULTS: Parity was found to lower the risk of breast cancer in the older but not in the younger birth cohort, whereas lifestyle factors showed associations with breast cancer risk only among the participants born in the 1950s. In the younger birth cohort group, the effect size was lower for parous women compared to the other cohort groups (HR [95% CI] 0.86 [0.66-1.13] compared to 0.60 [0.49-0.73], 0.46 [0.38-0.56] and 0.62 [0.51-0.77]). Meanwhile, a higher effect size was found for smoking (1.45 [1.14-1.84] compared to 1.25 [0.99-1.58], 1.06 [0.85-1.32] and 0.86 [0.69-1.08]) and alcohol consumption (1.22 [1.01-1.48] compared to 1.10 [0.90-1.33], 1.15 [0.96-1.38], and 1.07 [0.91-1.26]). CONCLUSION: We observed different associations of parity, smoking and alcohol consumption with breast cancer risk across various birth cohorts.

Height, body mass index, physical activity, and risk of colorectal cancer in relation to expression of insulin receptor: The Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study.

To ascertain the involvement of insulin receptors (IRs) in colorectal carcinogenesis, we investigated the association of height, body mass index (BMI), and physical activity with colorectal cancer (CRC) and two subtypes of CRC according to the expression level of IR. We utilized data from a large-scale, population-based prospective cohort study of 18,158 middle-aged and elderly subjects in Akita and Okinawa, Japan. In the statistical analysis, we used the Cox proportional hazards model and estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the risk of CRC and its subtypes as defined by immunohistochemistry of IRß, a transmembrane subunit of IR. In the IRß-defined subtypes, height showed no apparent association with the risk of IRß-positive CRC. In contrast, a multivariable HR of IRß-positive CRC was 1.77 (95% CI = 1.04-3.03) with a BMI of ≥30.0 kg/m2 (i.e., obesity), compared to a BMI of <25.0 kg/m2. Further, an increase in physical activity was significantly associated with decreased risk of IRß-positive CRC (multivariable HR per 5 METs-hour/day = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.88-0.99). Meanwhile, we found no significant association between any exposure and IRß-negative CRC. Likewise, heterogeneity between the two subtypes of CRC was not statistically significant. These findings imply that obesity and physical activity exert promoting and suppressing effects on the development of CRC expressing IRs, respectively.

Association between family history with lung cancer incidence and mortality risk in the Asia Cohort Consortium.

Family history of lung cancer (FHLC) has been widely studied but most prospective cohort studies have primarily been conducted in non-Asian countries. We assessed the association between FHLC with risk of lung cancer (LC) incidence and mortality in a population of East Asian individuals. A total of 478,354 participants from 11 population-based cohorts in the Asia Cohort Consortium were included. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A total of 7,785 LC incident cases were identified. FHLC (any LC subtype) was associated with an increased risk of LC incidence (HR = 1.45, 95% CI = 1.30-1.63). The positive association was observed in men and women (HR = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.26-1.66 in men; HR = 1.47, 95% CI = 1.22-1.79 in women), and in both never-smokers and ever-smokers (HR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.18-1.73 in never-smokers; HR = 1.46, 95% CI =1.27-1.67 in ever-smokers). FHLC was associated with an increased risk of lung adenocarcinoma (HR = 1.63, 95% CI: 1.36-1. 94), squamous cell carcinoma (HR = 1.88, 95% CI: 1.46-2.44), and other non-small cell LC (HR = 1.94, 95% CI: 1.02-3.68). However, we found no evidence of significant effect modification by sex, smoking status, and ethnic groups. In conclusion, FHLC was associated with increased risk of LC incidence and mortality, and the associations remained consistent regardless of sex, smoking status and ethnic groups among the East Asian population.

Association of female reproductive and hormonal factors with gallbladder cancer risk in Asia: A pooled analysis of the Asia Cohort Consortium.

The female predominance of gallbladder cancer (GBC) has led to a hypothesis regarding the hormone-related aetiology of GBC. We aimed to investigate the association between female reproductive factors and GBC risk, considering birth cohorts of Asian women. We conducted a pooled analysis of 331,323 women from 12 cohorts across 4 countries (China, Japan, Korea, and Singapore) in the Asia Cohort Consortium. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to assess the association between reproductive factors (age at menarche, parity, age at first delivery, breastfeeding, and age at menopause) and GBC risk. We observed that a later age at menarche was associated with an increased risk of GBC (HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.16-1.70 for 17 years and older vs. 13-14 years), especially among the cohort born in 1940 and later (HR 2.5, 95% CI 1.50-4.35). Among the cohort born before 1940, women with a later age at first delivery showed an increased risk of GBC (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.08-2.24 for 31 years of age and older vs. 20 years of age and younger). Other reproductive factors did not show a clear association with GBC risk. Later ages at menarche and at first delivery were associated with a higher risk of GBC, and these associations varied by birth cohort.

Association between reproductive factors with lung cancer incidence and mortality: A pooled analysis of over 308,000 females in the Asia cohort consortium.

Previous studies have investigated the association between reproductive factors and lung cancer risk; however, findings have been inconsistent. In order to assess this association among Asian women, a total of 308,949 female participants from 11 prospective cohorts and four Asian countries (Japan, Korea, China, and Singapore) were included. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A total of 3,119 primary lung cancer cases and 2247 lung cancer deaths were identified with a mean follow-up of 16.4 years. Parous women had a lower risk of lung cancer incidence and mortality as compared with nulliparous women, with HRs of 0.82 (95% CI = 0.70-0.96) and 0.78 (95% CI = 0.65-0.94). The protective association of parity and lung cancer incidence was greater among ever-smokers (HR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.49-0.87) than in never-smokers (HR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.74-1.09) (P-interaction = 0.029). Compared with age at first delivery ≤20 years, older age at first delivery (21-25, ≥26 years) was associated with a lower risk of lung cancer incidence and mortality. Women who ever used hormone replacements had a higher likelihood of developing non-small cell lung cancer (HR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.02-1.68), compared to those who never used hormone replacements. Future studies are needed to assess the underlying mechanisms, the relationships within these female reproductive factors, and the potential changes in smoking habits over time.

Obesity is associated with biliary tract cancer mortality and incidence: A pooled analysis of 21 cohort studies in the Asia Cohort Consortium.

Body fatness is considered a probable risk factor for biliary tract cancer (BTC), whereas cholelithiasis is an established factor. Nevertheless, although obesity is an established risk factor for cholelithiasis, previous studies of the association of body mass index (BMI) and BTC did not take the effect of cholelithiasis fully into account. To better understand the effect of BMI on BTC, we conducted a pooled analysis using population-based cohort studies in Asians. In total, 905 530 subjects from 21 cohort studies participating in the Asia Cohort Consortium were included. BMI was categorized into four groups: underweight (<18.5 kg/m2 ); normal (18.5-22.9 kg/m2 ); overweight (23-24.9 kg/m2 ); and obese (25+ kg/m2 ). The association between BMI and BTC incidence and mortality was assessed using hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by Cox regression models with shared frailty. Mediation analysis was used to decompose the association into a direct and an indirect (mediated) effect. Compared to normal BMI, high BMI was associated with BTC mortality (HR 1.19 [CI 1.02-1.38] for males, HR 1.30 [1.14-1.49] for females). Cholelithiasis had significant interaction with BMI on BTC risk. BMI was associated with BTC risk directly and through cholelithiasis in females, whereas the association was unclear in males. When cholelithiasis was present, BMI was not associated with BTC death in either males or females. BMI was associated with BTC death among females without cholelithiasis. This study suggests BMI is associated with BTC mortality in Asians. Cholelithiasis appears to contribute to the association; and moreover, obesity appears to increase BTC risk without cholelithiasis.

Diabetes is associated with increased liver cancer incidence and mortality in adults: A report from Asia Cohort Consortium.

There has been growing evidence suggesting that diabetes may be associated with increased liver cancer risk. However, studies conducted in Asian countries are limited. This project considered data of 968,738 adults pooled from 20 cohort studies of Asia Cohort Consortium to examine the association between baseline diabetes and liver cancer incidence and mortality. Cox proportional hazard model and competing risk approach was used for pooled data. Two-stage meta-analysis across studies was also done. There were 839,194 subjects with valid data regarding liver cancer incidence (5654 liver cancer cases [48.29/100,000 person-years]), follow-up time and baseline diabetes (44,781 with diabetes [5.3%]). There were 747,198 subjects with valid data regarding liver cancer mortality (5020 liver cancer deaths [44.03/100,000 person-years]), follow-up time and baseline diabetes (43,243 with diabetes [5.8%]). Hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval [95%CI]) of liver cancer diagnosis in those with vs. without baseline diabetes was 1.97 (1.79, 2.16) (p < .0001) after adjusting for baseline age, gender, body mass index, tobacco smoking, alcohol use, and heterogeneity across studies (n = 586,072; events = 4620). Baseline diabetes was associated with increased cumulative incidence of death due to liver cancer (adjusted HR (95%CI) = 1.97 (1.79, 2.18); p < .0001) (n = 595,193; events = 4110). A two-stage meta-analytic approach showed similar results. This paper adds important population-based evidence to current literature regarding the increased incidence and mortality of liver cancer in adults with diabetes. The analysis of data pooled from 20 studies of different Asian countries and the meta-analysis across studies with large number of subjects makes the results robust.

Body mass index and lung cancer risk: Pooled analysis of 10 prospective cohort studies in Japan.

Mounting evidence suggests that body mass index (BMI) is inversely associated with the risk of lung cancer. However, relatively few studies have explored this association in Asian people, who have a much lower prevalence of obesity than Caucasians. We pooled data from 10 prospective cohort studies involving 444,143 Japanese men and women to address the association between BMI and the risk of lung cancer. Study-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated in each cohort using the Cox proportional hazards model. A meta-analysis was undertaken by combining the results from each cohort. Heterogeneity across studies was evaluated using Cochran's Q and I2statistics. During 5,730,013 person-years of follow-up, 6454 incident lung cancer cases (4727 men and 1727 women) were identified. Baseline BMI was inversely associated with lung cancer risk in men and women combined. While leanness (BMI <18.5) was associated with a higher risk of lung cancer (HR 1.35; 95% CI, 1.16-1.57), overweight and obesity were associated with a lower risk, with HRs of 0.77 (95% CI, 0.71-0.84) and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.45-1.07), respectively. Every 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI was associated with a 21% lower risk of lung cancer (HR 0.79; 95% CI, 0.75-0.83; p < 0.0001). Our pooled analysis indicated that BMI is inversely associated with the risk of lung cancer in the Japanese population. This inverse association could be partly attributed to residual confounding by smoking, as it was more pronounced among male smokers.

Plasma albumin, bilirubin, and uric acid and the subsequent risk of cancer: a case-cohort study in the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study.

Several epidemiologic studies have investigated the circulating levels of albumin, bilirubin, and uric acid (UA) in relation to cancer risk; however, they have provided equivocal evidence. In this prospective case-cohort study, we measured the plasma levels of albumin, bilirubin, and UA and investigated their association with cancer incidence in 3584 case patients and 4270 randomly selected participants with a median follow-up of 15.8 years. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs of total cancer for the highest quartile (Q4) versus lowest quartile (Q1) was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.67-0.90; P <.001 for trend) for albumin. This association was attenuated after excluding liver cancer cases with lower plasma albumin levels. Plasma bilirubin levels were positively related to liver cancer but inversely to total cancer after excluding liver cancer with, for Q4 versus Q1, an adjusted HR of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.74-0.99; P = .015 for trend). Plasma UA levels were not dose-responsively associated with total cancer risk. Higher plasma bilirubin levels were associated with a decreased risk of total cancer after excluding liver cancer, which is likely attributed to the antioxidant properties of bilirubin.

Association of depressive symptoms with incident fractures: the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation (JPHC-NEXT).

This 5-year longitudinal study investigated the relationship between depressive symptoms and fracture risk in a large Japanese cohort. Depressive symptoms were a significant risk factor for hip fractures in women. PURPOSE: A relationship between depressive symptoms and fractures has not been clearly demonstrated. We aimed to investigate the relationship between depressive symptoms and 5-year fracture risk in the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation. METHODS: From 2011 to 2016, 114,092 participants were enrolled, and a follow-up survey was conducted 5 years later. We analyzed 30,552 men and 38,063 women aged 40-74 years who had no past fractures at baseline. Presence of depressive symptoms was defined as a modified 11-item Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale score of 8 or higher, a history of depression, or use of antidepressants. Subjects were asked to report vertebral, upper limb, and/or hip fractures, except for traffic or work accidents, that occurred during the follow-up period. The adjusted odds ratios (AORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for fracture were analyzed via logistic regression analysis to evaluate the relationship between depressive symptoms and fracture. RESULTS: Women with depressive symptoms demonstrated a high AOR for hip fractures (AOR: 2.78, 95% CI: 1.30 - 5.92); this result was consistent in post menopause women. In men, this association was not found for any age group or any type of fracture. CONCLUSIONS: Depressive symptoms in women may increase the risk of hip fractures. Further studies are required to explore this relationship in more detail.

Fruit and Vegetable Intake and Risk of Disabling Dementia: Japan Public Health Center Disabling Dementia Study.

BACKGROUND: Fruits and vegetables contain abundant amounts of antioxidant vitamins such as vitamin C, α-carotene, and ß-carotene. Few prospective observational studies have investigated the effects of fruit and vegetable intake on the risk of dementia, and the results are inconsistent. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to examine associations between fruit and vegetable intake and the risk of disabling dementia. METHODS: We conducted a follow-up survey within the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study involving 42,643 individuals aged 50-79 y at baseline (2000-2003). Dietary fruit and vegetable intakes and related antioxidant vitamin intakes (i.e., α-carotene, ß-carotene, and vitamin C) were determined using a food frequency questionnaire. The diagnosis of disabling dementia was made based on the daily living disability status related to dementia under the Japanese long-term care insurance program from 2006 to 2016. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for disabling dementia were estimated using area-stratified Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for potential confounding factors. RESULTS: A total of 4994 cases of disabling dementia were recorded. We observed an inverse association between total fruit and vegetable intake and the risk of dementia among males and females: the multivariate hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for the highest compared with lowest quartiles of intake were 0.87 (0.76, 0.99) (P- trend = 0.05) among males and 0.85 (0.76, 0.94) (P- trend = 0.006) among females. Among antioxidant vitamins, vitamin C intake was inversely associated with the risk of dementia among males and females: the multivariate hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for the highest compared with lowest quartiles of intake were 0.71 (0.61, 0.84) (P- trend < 0.0001) among males, and 0.76 (0.67, 0.86) (P- trend < 0.0001) among females. CONCLUSIONS: Fruit and vegetable intake and dietary intake of vitamin C may contribute to reducing the risk of disabling dementia among males and females.

Intake of Sugar and Food Sources of Sugar and Colorectal Cancer Risk in the Multiethnic Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The influence of sugar intake on the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) remains controversial, and there is a need to investigate the heterogeneity of effects among racial and ethnic groups. OBJECTIVES: To examine the association of intake of simple sugars and their food sources with CRC risk according to race/ethnicity in a multiethnic cohort study. METHODS: We analyzed data from 192,651 participants who participated in the Multiethnic Cohort Study comprising African American, Japanese American, Latino, Native Hawaiian, and White older adults living in Hawaii and California with an average follow-up of 19 y. Intakes of total and specific types of sugars and sugary foods were estimated from a quantitative food frequency questionnaire completed by the participants in 1993-1996. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for CRC risk according to quintiles (Q) of sugar and food intakes using Cox models adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: As of December 2017, 4403 incident CRC cases were identified. Among all participants, multivariable-adjusted CRC HRs for Q2, Q3, Q4, and Q5 compared with Q1 for total sugars were 1.03 (95% CI: 0.94, 1.13), 1.05 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.16), 1.12 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.24), and 1.13 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.27), respectively. A similar positive association was observed for total fructose, glucose, fructose, and maltose but not for added sugars and sugary foods. The increased risk appeared to be limited to colon cancer and to be strongest among younger participants (i.e., 45-54 y at baseline); an association with CRC was observed for sugar-sweetened beverages in the latter group. Among racial and ethnic groups, increased risk of CRC was most apparent in Latinos. CONCLUSIONS: In this diverse cohort, intakes of total sugar, total fructose, glucose, fructose, and maltose were associated with an increased risk of CRC, and the association was strongest for colon cancer, younger participants, and Latinos.

Sleep duration, its change, and risk of dementia among Japanese: The Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study.

OBJECTIVE: Previous findings on the association between sleep duration, changes in sleep duration, and long-term dementia risk were mixed. Thus, we aimed to investigate the association between midlife sleep duration, its change, and dementia. METHODS: We recruited 41,731 Japanese (40-71 years) and documented their habitual sleep duration at baseline (1990-1994) and a 5-year follow-up survey. Changes in sleep duration were calculated as differences between baseline and 5-year measurements. We identified dementia using the Long-Term Care Insurance system (2007-2016). Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of dementia were calculated using the area-stratified Cox model. RESULTS: During 360,389 person-years, 4621 participants exhibited dementia. The multivariable HRs of dementia compared with 7 h of sleep were 1.13 (95% CI: 0.98-1.30) for 3-5 h, 0.93 (0.85-1.02) for 6 h, 1.06 (0.99-1.14) for 8 h, 1.13 (1.01-1.27) for 9 h, and 1.40 (1.21-1.63) for 10-12 h with a J-shaped fashion (p for linear < 0.001 and quadratic < 0.001). For its change, the HRs compared with no change were 1.02 (0.90-1.16) for decreased ≥2 h, 0.95 (0.88-1.03) for decreased 1 h, 1.00 (0.91-1.09) for increased 1 h, and 1.37 (1.20-1.58) for increased ≥2 h. The positive association for decreased sleep duration was observed in individuals with an initial sleep duration of ≤7 h, but not in those with ≥8 h (p for interaction = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS: Long and increased sleep duration was associated with a higher risk of dementia.

Family history and gastric cancer incidence and mortality in Asia: a pooled analysis of more than half a million participants.

BACKGROUND: The family history of gastric cancer holds important implications for cancer surveillance and prevention, yet existing evidence predominantly comes from case-control studies. We aimed to investigate the association between family history of gastric cancer and gastric cancer risk overall and by various subtypes in Asians in a prospective study. METHODS: We included 12 prospective cohorts with 550,508 participants in the Asia Cohort Consortium. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate study-specific adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between family history of gastric cancer and gastric cancer incidence and mortality, then pooled using random-effects meta-analyses. Stratified analyses were performed for the anatomical subsites and histological subtypes. RESULTS: During the mean follow-up of 15.6 years, 2258 incident gastric cancers and 5194 gastric cancer deaths occurred. The risk of incident gastric cancer was higher in individuals with a family history of gastric cancer (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.32-1.58), similarly in males (1.44, 1.31-1.59) and females (1.45, 1.23-1.70). Family history of gastric cancer was associated with both cardia (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.00-1.60) and non-cardia subsites (1.49, 1.35-1.65), and with intestinal- (1.48, 1.30-1.70) and diffuse-type (1.59, 1.35-1.87) gastric cancer incidence. Positive associations were also found for gastric cancer mortality (HR 1.30, 95% CI 1.19-1.41). CONCLUSIONS: In this largest prospective study to date on family history and gastric cancer, a familial background of gastric cancer increased the risk of gastric cancer in the Asian population. Targeted education, screening, and intervention in these high-risk groups may reduce the burden of gastric cancer.

Association between fish and shellfish consumption, n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids, and gastric cancer risk: the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study.

PURPOSE: Fish and shellfish consumption is suggested to be a cancer-protective factor. However, studies investigating this association for gastric cancer, especially considering Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) and atrophic gastritis (AG), are limited. We investigated gastric cancer risk associated with fish, shellfish, and n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 PUFAs) consumption among Japanese adults. METHODS: 90,504 subjects enrolled in the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study (JPHC Study) were followed until December 2013. Dietary intake data were collected using a food frequency questionnaire. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for gastric cancer risk associated with fish and shellfish consumption and marine n-3 PUFAs (sum of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), docosapentaenoic acid (DPA), and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA)) using Cox proportional hazards models. Among those with avaliable data, we conducted a subgroup analysis taking H. pylori infection and AG status  into consideration. RESULTS: There were 2,701 gastric cancer cases during an average of 15 years of follow-up. We observed an increased gastric cancer risk for salted fish consumption for men [HR for fifth quintile versus first quintile 1.43 (95% CI 1.18-1.75)] and for women [HR 1.33 (95% CI 1.00-1.77)]. We observed a weak risk reduction trend for women as the intake of marine n-3 PUFAs increased (p-trend:0.07). When we included H. pylori infection and atrophic gastritis status in the analysis, the associations diminished. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that salted fish increases gastric cancer risk for men and women, while marine n-3 PUFAs marginally decreases this risk among women in Japan.

Importance of circulating leptin and adiponectin in the causal pathways between obesity and the development of colorectal cancer in Japanese men.

BACKGROUND: The mechanistic associations between obesity and risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) remain unclear. Here, using body mass index (BMI) as an obesity indicator, we decomposed the total effects of obesity on the risk of CRC into: (1) direct effects, which are possibly mediated by unmeasured or currently unknown factors; (2) indirect effects mediated by circulating leptin and adiponectin; and (3) indirect effects that are not mediated by circulating leptin and adiponectin but by hyperinsulinemia and chronic inflammation (assessed via circulating connecting peptide and C-reactive protein, respectively). METHODS: We adopted a causal mediation framework, using data from a large prospective cohort study of 44,271 Japanese men. RESULTS: BMI was not associated with the risk of CRC due to direct and indirect effects that were not mediated by circulating leptin and adiponectin. By contrast, individuals with BMIs of 25.0-27.4 kg/m2 (risk ratio, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 0.98-1.69) and ≥27.5 kg/m2 (risk ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 0.98-1.68) had a higher risk of CRC due to indirect effects of circulating leptin and adiponectin. CONCLUSIONS: Our mediation analyses suggest that the association between BMI and CRC risk may be largely mediated by a pathway involving circulating leptin and adiponectin.

Validity of self-reported participation in cancer screenings and health checkups in Japan.

BACKGROUND: The participation rate for screening is regarded as a useful indicator for preventing cancer and cardio-metabolic disease. However, the validity of self-reported screening participation has not yet been thoroughly evaluated in Japan. We aimed to examine its validity using the municipal screening records among the Japanese population. METHODS: We included 3,060 men and 3,860 women insured by the National Health Insurance for residents aged <75 years or the Medical Care System for the Elderly aged ≥75 years in the Chikusei area of the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation. They were asked about their participation in cancer screenings and health checkups during the previous year. We compared their responses to the municipal records and calculated the sensitivity and specificity of self-reported screening participation. RESULTS: The sensitivity and specificity of self-reported participation were 0.49 and 0.86 for lung cancer screening; 0.67 and 0.85 for colorectal cancer screening; 0.77 and 0.79 for stomach cancer screening; and 0.86 and 0.65 for health checkup, respectively. Among women, the sensitivity and specificity were 0.83 and 0.81 for breast cancer and 0.85 and 0.90 for cervical cancer, respectively. CONCLUSION: Self-reported cancer screening participation for colorectal, stomach, breast, and cervical cancers had moderate-high sensitivity and specificity. Self-reported participation, especially for lung cancer screening and health checkups, should be carefully interpreted when assessing the performance of preventive measures.

Body Mass Index, Height and Head and Neck Cancer Risk: the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study.

BACKGROUND: Although both a lower and a higher body mass index (BMI) are reportedly associated with head and neck cancer (HNC), reports from Asia are scarce. Moreover, evidence regarding the association between height and HNC is limited. METHODS: We investigated associations between BMI, height, and the incidence of HNC among 102,668 participants (49,029 men and 53,639 women) aged 40-69 years in the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study. We followed participants from 1990 to 2013. We conducted a Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, which included adjustment for potential confounders such as smoking status. Baseline weight and height information were self-reported. RESULTS: Over an average follow-up of 18.7 years, 311 HNC cases were newly diagnosed. Lower BMI was significantly associated with HNC, with hazard ratios [HR] of 2.75 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.63-4.64) for <18.5 kg/m2 and 1.63 (95% CI=1.15-2.30) for 18.5-20.9 kg/m2 compared to 23-24.9 kg/m2. Increased risk was suggested for higher BMI, with an HR of 1.30 (95%CI=0.84-2.00) for ≥27.5 kg/m2. This trend was also observed in quadratic models. Results were similar among never smokers. Meanwhile, only lower BMI showed a strong association with HNC risk among former and current smokers (HR: 3.09, 95%CI: 1.54-6.20 for <18.5 kg/m2 compared to 23 to 24.9 kg/m2). Height showed no association with HNC. CONCLUSIONS: Lower BMI was significantly associated with HNC risk, while increased HNC risk was suggested in higher BMI among never smokers. Among former and current smokers, only lower BMI was associated with HNC risk.

Development and Validation of Prediction Models for the 5-year Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in a Japanese Population: Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective (JPHC) Diabetes Study.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to develop models to predict the 5-year incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in a Japanese population and validate them externally in an independent Japanese population. METHODS: Data from 10,986 participants (aged 46-75 years) in the development cohort of the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Diabetes Study and 11,345 participants (aged 46-75 years) in the validation cohort of the Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study were used to develop and validate the risk scores in logistic regression models. RESULTS: We considered non-invasive (sex, body mass index, family history of diabetes mellitus, and diastolic blood pressure) and invasive (glycated hemoglobin [HbA1c] and fasting plasma glucose [FPG]) predictors to predict the 5-year probability of incident diabetes. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.643 for the non-invasive risk model, 0.786 for the invasive risk model with HbA1c but not FPG, and 0.845 for the invasive risk model with HbA1c and FPG. The optimism for the performance of all models was small by internal validation. In the internal-external cross-validation, these models tended to show similar discriminative ability across different areas. The discriminative ability of each model was confirmed using external validation datasets. The invasive risk model with only HbA1c was well-calibrated in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION: Our invasive risk models are expected to discriminate between high- and low-risk individuals with T2DM in a Japanese population.

Validity of Self-reported Helicobacter pylori Eradication Treatment From Questionnaire and Interview Surveys of the JPHC-NEXT Study: Comparison With Prescription History From Insurance Claims Data.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to evaluate the validity of self-administered questionnaire surveys and face-to-face interview surveys for the detection of Helicobacter pylori eradication therapy. METHODS: Participants were a cohort, aged 40-74 years, living in three different locations of Japan, who took part in the baseline survey (2011-2012) of the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation (JPHC-NEXT). Five years after the baseline survey, a questionnaire and interview survey were independently conducted to determine the history of Helicobacter pylori eradication treatment over the 5-year period. Prescription of Helicobacter pylori eradication medications in national insurance claims data from the baseline survey to the 5-year survey was used as a reference standard. RESULTS: In total, 15,760 questionnaire surveys and 8,006 interview surveys were included in the analysis. There were 3,471 respondents to the questionnaire and 2,398 respondents to the interview who reported having received Helicobacter pylori eradication treatment within the past 5 years. Comparison of the questionnaire survey to national insurance claims data showed a sensitivity of 95.1% (2,213/2,328), specificity of 90.6% (12,174/13,432), positive predictive value of 63.8% (2,213/3,471), negative predictive value of 99.1% (12,174/12,289), and Cohen's Kappa value of 0.71. Respective values of the interview survey were 94.4% (1,694/1,795), 88.7% (5,507/6,211), 70.6% (1,694/2,398), 98.2% (5,507/5,608), and 0.74. CONCLUSION: Both the questionnaire and the interview showed high sensitivity, high specificity, and good agreement with the insurance claim prescriptions data. Some participants may have received eradication treatment without going through the public insurance claim database, resulting in a low positive predictive value.