Epidemiological behavior and current forecast of syphilis in Mexico: increase in male population.

OBJECTIVES: Even when new cases of syphilis are notifiable since 1944, the Mexican National Epidemiological Surveillance System lacks information on the changes of the rate of case reports considering the geographic and demographic variables. Therefore, it is necessary to have evidence, with particular attention to the study of the epidemiological behavior by the identification of risk factors and groups. The objective of this study was to analyze the epidemiology, geographical distribution, and forecast of syphilis in Mexico. STUDY DESIGN: The design of the study was a secondary research of epidemiological databases. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of the national surveillance data (2007-2017) of acquired and congenital syphilis (CS) issued by the General Directorate of Epidemiology was performed. RESULTS: Of all cases, 34,998 and 1030 cases were reported for acquired syphilis (AS) and CS , respectively, reflecting an increasing trend in the whole country for both diseases. Cases and incidence of AS per year showed that, male gender presented an increase in reproductive age. Distribution of the rate of case reports is mostly commanded by the states in the extreme north (Gulf of California and northern Gulf of Mexico) and south (Gulf of southern Mexico and the Caribbean Sea). Likewise, the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model was selected as the best-fit model for the forecast analysis. This model was used to forecast AS cases during 2018-2019. AS may have a slight fluctuation (on the rise) during the following 24 months. CONCLUSIONS: These findings underscore the importance of intensifying, as well as expanding screening and treatment in adult population, including men, who are not routinely benefiting from maternal and reproductive service-based syphilis screening and treatment.

Evolution of incidence and geographical distribution of Chagas disease in Mexico during a decade (2007-2016).

Chagas disease, whose aetiological agent is the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi, mainly occurs in Latin America. In order to know the epidemiology and the geographical distribution of this disease in Mexico, the present work analyses the national surveillance data (10 years) for Chagas disease issued by the General Directorate of Epidemiology (GDE). An ecological analysis of Chagas disease (2007-2016) was performed in the annual reports issued by the GDE in Mexico. The cases and incidence were classified by year, state, age group, gender and seasons. A national distribution map showing Chagas disease incidence was generated. An increase of new cases was identified throughout the country (rates from 0.37 to 0.81 per 100 000 inhabitants). Of the total cases accumulated (7388), the major cases were attributed to the states of Veracruz, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Oaxaca, Morelos and Yucatán. The analysis per age groups and gender revealed that, in most age groups, the incidence was higher in the male population. The most number of cases was identified in spring and summer; a direct relationship between the environmental temperature increase and the number of new cases was identified. The analysis showed that the rate of Chagas disease increased presumably due to state programmes; the search for new cases has expanded and we speculate that the disease is associated with occupational activities. These results summarise and recall how important it is to implement the monitoring of Chagas disease mainly in south states of the Mexican Republic in order to implement strategies to control this disease.