Effects of climate change on aquaculture site selection at a temperate estuarine system.

Aquaculture is one of the food industries that most evolved in recent years in response to increased human demand for seafood products, which has led to a progressive stock threat in nature. With a high seafood consumption per capita, Portugal has been exploring its coastal systems to improve the cultivation of fish and bivalve species with high commercial value. In this context, this study aims to propose the use of a numerical model as a tool to assess the impact of climate change on aquaculture site selection in a temperate estuarine system (Sado estuary). Therefore, the Delft3D model was calibrated and validated, showing good accuracy in predicting the local hydrodynamics, transport, and water quality. Furthermore, two simulations for the historical and future conditions were performed to establish a Suitability Index capable of identifying the most appropriate sites to exploit two bivalve species (one clam and one oyster), considering both winter and summer seasons. Results suggest that the estuary's northernmost region presents the best conditions for bivalves' exploitation, with more suitable conditions during summer than winter due to the higher water temperature and chlorophyll-a concentrations. Regarding future projections, the model results suggest that environmental conditions will likely benefit the production of both species due to the increase in chlorophyll-a concentration along the estuary.

A habitat suitability model for aquaculture site selection: Ria de Aveiro and Rias Baixas.

Aquaculture is one of the fastest-growing activities worldwide. This strong and rapid development of the sector tends to be reflected in significant environmental impacts and new challenges in the management of the coastal areas. In this context, this work intends to contribute to the sustainability of the sector, by proposing an innovative method to identify preferred locations to ensure sustainable expansion of fish and mussels aquaculture, under optimal hydrodynamic and water quality conditions in Ria de Aveiro (Portugal) and Rias Baixas (Spain). A habitat model was developed, integrating hydrodynamic and water quality modelling results into a suitability index based on the definition of variable suitability functions. The results show that 22% of Ria de Aveiro is very good for fish production. In contrast, the production of pelagic fish in Rias Baixas is not recommended due to vertical gradients of water temperature and seasonal events of hypoxia. Concerning to mussels, the habitat model classifies 31% of Ria de Aveiro area as very good for production, while most of the Rias Baixas area presents this highest classification, confirming the high exploitation of the region. The definition of appropriate areas for aquaculture exploitation is highly related with the different geomorphological, hydrological and biogeochemical processes of Ria de Aveiro and Rias Baixas. Results for Ria de Aveiro indicate that the upstream areas are the most vulnerable from the water quality point of view, highlighting the importance of the advective processes in the lagoon's water quality, in opposition to Rias Baixas dynamics, where stratification is more relevant. In Rias Baixas, the strong vertical gradient of water temperature and dissolved oxygen prevents fish from having sustainable growth rates. Therefore, this work demonstrated the potential of the proposed method based on hydrodynamic and biogeochemical modelling to support the decision-making process in planning aquaculture expansion.

Modelling the distribution of microplastics released by wastewater treatment plants in Ria de Vigo (NW Iberian Peninsula).

The accumulation of plastic waste in estuaries is growing due to the increase in their use in daily life and their inadequate treatment on wastewater plants (WWTPs). Hydrodynamic and particle-tracking models were validated and used to improve the knowledge about the distribution and concentration of microplastics released by WWTPs in the Ria de Vigo. Results showed that the Vigo WWTP is the main driver of microplastics to the Ria de Vigo. Besides, 21% of the released microplastics reach the adjacent ocean, 24% remain anchored around the Cies Islands, and a negligible percentage reaches the upper estuary when the emission occurs under ebb on spring tide conditions. A negligible number of released microplastics is exported to the nearby ocean when the emission occurs under neap tide conditions. This research can provide a useful tool to support the identification of monitoring processes and debris removal.