Predicting Patients at Risk for 3-Day Postdischarge Readmissions, ED Visits, and Deaths.

BACKGROUND: Transitional care interventions can be utilized to reduce post-hospital discharge adverse events (AEs). However, no methodology exists to effectively identify high-risk patients of any disease across multiple hospital sites and patient populations for short-term postdischarge AEs. OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a 3-day (72 h) AEs prediction model using electronic health records data available at the time of an indexed discharge. RESEARCH DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of admissions between June 2012 and June 2014. SUBJECTS: All adult inpatient admissions (excluding in-hospital deaths) from a large multicenter hospital system. MEASURES: All-cause 3-day unplanned readmissions, emergency department (ED) visits, and deaths (REDD). The REDD model was developed using clinical, administrative, and socioeconomic data, with data preprocessing steps and stacked classification. Patients were divided randomly into training (66.7%), and testing (33.3%) cohorts to avoid overfitting. RESULTS: The derivation cohort comprised of 64,252 admissions, of which 2782 (4.3%) admissions resulted in 3-day AEs and 13,372 (20.8%) in 30-day AEs. The c-statistic (also known as area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) of 3-day REDD model was 0.671 and 0.664 for the derivation and validation cohort, respectively. The c-statistic of 30-day REDD model was 0.713 and 0.711 for the derivation and validation cohort, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The 3-day REDD model predicts high-risk patients with fair discriminative power. The discriminative power of the 30-day REDD model is also better than the previously reported models under similar settings. The 3-day REDD model has been implemented and is being used to identify patients at risk for AEs.

StratBAM: A Discrete-Event Simulation Model to Support Strategic Hospital Bed Capacity Decisions.

The ability to accurately measure and assess current and potential health care system capacities is an issue of local and national significance. Recent joint statements by the Institute of Medicine and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality have emphasized the need to apply industrial and systems engineering principles to improving health care quality and patient safety outcomes. To address this need, a decision support tool was developed for planning and budgeting of current and future bed capacity, and evaluating potential process improvement efforts. The Strategic Bed Analysis Model (StratBAM) is a discrete-event simulation model created after a thorough analysis of patient flow and data from Geisinger Health System's (GHS) electronic health records. Key inputs include: timing, quantity and category of patient arrivals and discharges; unit-level length of care; patient paths; and projected patient volume and length of stay. Key outputs include: admission wait time by arrival source and receiving unit, and occupancy rates. Electronic health records were used to estimate parameters for probability distributions and to build empirical distributions for unit-level length of care and for patient paths. Validation of the simulation model against GHS operational data confirmed its ability to model real-world data consistently and accurately. StratBAM was successfully used to evaluate the system impact of forecasted patient volumes and length of stay in terms of patient wait times, occupancy rates, and cost. The model is generalizable and can be appropriately scaled for larger and smaller health care settings.