Patterns of dreissenid mussel invasions in western US lakes within an integrated gravity model framework.

Freshwater invasive species, such as the quagga mussel (Dreissena rostriformis bugensis), are causing over $1 billion USD annually in damages to water infrastructure, recreation, and the environment. Once established, quagga and other dreissenid mussels are extremely difficult to eradicate. Preventing the spread of these invasives is critical and of high management concern. Invasive dreissenid establishment is predicated upon both successful dispersal from a source and suitable habitat in the uninfested waterbody to which they are transported. Recreational boaters have become predominant dispersal vectors making it possible to forecast the risk of invasion of waterbodies for more targeted management and prevention. We developed an integrated mussel dispersal model that couples a constrained gravity model and habitat suitability model to forecast future invasions. The model simulates boater movement between lakes, the likelihood of boats transporting mussels, and the likelihood that those mussels survive in the environmental conditions of the new lake. Model output was most sensitive to changes in boater threshold, then buffer zones, while not as sensitive to changes in habitat suitability. From an initial infested source pool of 11 among 402 Western inland US lakes, we forecast additional lakes infested in several possible simulation scenarios. Constraining movement reduced connectivity between waterbodies with amplifying effects at different distance levels. This model can be used to determine waterbodies most at risk for dreissenid mussel invasion and to highlight the importance of multifactor integrated models in environmental management.

Different as night and day: Behavioural and life history responses to varied photoperiods in Daphnia magna.

Nearly all animal species have utilized photoperiod to cue seasonal behaviours and life history traits. We investigated photoperiod responses in keystone species, Daphnia magna, to identify molecular processes underlying ecologically important behaviours and traits using functional transcriptomic analyses. Daphnia magna were photoperiod-entrained immediately posthatch to a standard control photoperiod of 16 light/ 8 dark hours (16L:8D) relative to shorter (4L:20D, 8L:16D, 12L:12L) and longer (20L:4D) day length photoperiods. Short-day photoperiods induced significantly increased light-avoidance behaviours relative to controls. Correspondingly, significant differential transcript expression for genes involved in glutamate signalling was observed, a critical signalling pathway in arthropod light-avoidance behaviour. Additionally, period circadian protein and proteins coding F-box/LRR-repeat domains were differentially expressed which are recognized to establish circadian rhythms in arthropods. Indicators of metabolic rate increased in short-day photoperiods which corresponded with broadscale changes in transcriptional expression across system-level energy metabolism pathways. The most striking observations included significantly decreased neonate production at the shortest day length photoperiod (4L:20D) and significantly increased male production across short-day and equinox photoperiods (4L:20D, 8L:16D and 12L:12D). Transcriptional expression consistent with putative mechanisms of male production was observed including photoperiod-dependent expression of transformer-2 sex-determining protein and small nuclear ribonucleoprotein particles (snRNPs) which control splice variant expression for genes like transformer. Finally, increased transcriptional expression of glutamate has also been shown to induce male production in Daphnia pulex via photoperiod-sensitive mechanisms. Overall, photoperiod entrainment affected molecular pathways that underpin critical behavioural and life history traits in D. magna providing fundamental insights into biological responses to this primary environmental cue.

COVID-19 infection data encode a dynamic reproduction number in response to policy decisions with secondary wave implications.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus is responsible for the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which has spread to populations throughout the continental United States. Most state and local governments have adopted some level of "social distancing" policy, but infections have continued to spread despite these efforts. Absent a vaccine, authorities have few other tools by which to mitigate further spread of the virus. This begs the question of how effective social policy really is at reducing new infections that, left alone, could potentially overwhelm the existing hospitalization capacity of many states. We developed a mathematical model that captures correlations between some state-level "social distancing" policies and infection kinetics for all U.S. states, and use it to illustrate the link between social policy decisions, disease dynamics, and an effective reproduction number that changes over time, for case studies of Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Washington states. In general, our findings indicate that the potential for second waves of infection, which result after reopening states without an increase to immunity, can be mitigated by a return of social distancing policies as soon as possible after the waves are detected.

To feed or not to feed? Bioenergetic impacts of fear-driven behaviors in lactating dolphins.

In mammals, lactation can be the most energetically expensive part of the reproductive cycle. Thus, when energy needs are compromised due to predation risk, environmental disturbance, or resource scarcity, future reproductive success can be impacted. In marine and terrestrial environments, foraging behavior is inextricably linked to predation risk. But quantification of foraging energetics for lactating animals under predation risk is less understood. In this study, we used a spatially explicit individual-based model to study how changes in physiology (lactating or not) and the environment (predation risk) affect optimal behavior in dolphins. Specifically, we predicted that an adult dolphin without calf would incur lower relative energetic costs compared to a lactating dolphin with calf regardless of predation risk severity, antipredator behavior, or prey quality consumed. Under this state-dependent analysis of risk approach, we found predation risk to be a stronger driver in affecting total energetic costs (foraging plus locomotor costs) than food quality for both dolphin types. Further, contrary to our hypothesis, after accounting for raised energy demands, a lactating dolphin with calf does not necessarily have higher relative-to-baseline costs than a dolphin without calf. Our results indicate that both a lactating (with calf) and non-lactating dolphin incur lowered energetic costs under a risk-averse behavioral scheme, but consequently suffer from lost foraging calories. A lactating dolphin with calf could be particularly worse off in lost foraging calories under elevated predation risk, heightened vigilance, and increased hiding time relative to an adult dolphin without calf. Further, hiding time in refuge could be more consequential than detection distance for both dolphin types in estimated costs and losses incurred. In conclusion, our study found that reproductive status is an important consideration in analyzing risk effects in mammals, especially in animals with lengthy lactation periods and those exposed to both biological and nonbiological stressors.

Integrating spread dynamics and economics of timber production to manage Chinese tallow invasions in southern U.S. forestlands.

Economic costs associated with the invasion of nonnative species are of global concern. We estimated expected costs of Chinese tallow (Triadica sebifera (L.) Small) invasions related to timber production in southern U.S. forestlands under different management strategies. Expected costs were confined to the value of timber production losses plus costs for search and control. We simulated management strategies including (1) no control (NC), and control beginning as soon as the percentage of invaded forest land exceeded (2) 60 (Low Control), (3) 25 (Medium Control), or (4) 0 (High Control) using a spatially-explicit, stochastic, bioeconomic model. With NC, simulated invasions spread northward and westward into Arkansas and along the Gulf of Mexico to occupy ≈1.2 million hectares within 20 years, with associated expected total costs increasing exponentially to ≈$300 million. With LC, MC, and HC, invaded areas reached ≈275, 34, and 2 thousand hectares after 20 years, respectively, with associated expected costs reaching ≈$400, $230, and $200 million. Complete eradication would not be cost-effective; the minimum expected total cost was achieved when control began as soon as the percentage of invaded land exceeded 5%. These results suggest the importance of early detection and control of Chinese tallow, and emphasize the importance of integrating spread dynamics and economics to manage invasive species.