Population Attributable Fraction of Total Stroke Associated with Modifiable Risk Factors in the United States.

Stroke is a leading cause of death in the United States across all race/ethnicity and sex groups, though disparities exist. We investigated the potential for primary prevention of total first stroke for Americans aged 20 and older, stratified by sex and race/ethnicity. Specifically, we calculated population attributable fractions (PAF) of first stroke for 7 potentially modifiable risk factors: smoking, physical inactivity, poor diet, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and atrial fibrillation. PAFs are a function of (1) the relative risk of first stroke for people with the exposure and (2) the prevalence of the risk factor in the population. Relative risks came from recent meta-analyses and sex-race/ethnicity-specific prevalence estimates came from the 2015-2018 NHANES or Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (for atrial fibrillation only). Approximately 1/3 (35.7% [CI: 21.6%-49.0%]) for women, 32.7% [CI: 19.2%-45.1%] for men) of strokes were attributable to the 7 risk factors we considered. A 20% proportional reduction in stroke risk factors would result in approximately 37,000 fewer strokes annually in the United States. The estimated PAF was highest for non-Hispanic Black women (39.3% [CI: 24.8%-52.3%]) and lowest for non-Hispanic Asian men (25.5% [CI: 14.6%-36.2%]). For most groups, obesity and hypertension were the largest contributors to stroke rates.

Racial and Ethnic Differences in All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: The MESA Study.

BACKGROUND: Despite improvements in population health, marked racial and ethnic disparities in longevity and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality persist. This study aimed to describe risks for all-cause and CVD mortality by race and ethnicity, before and after accounting for socioeconomic status (SES) and other factors, in the MESA study (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). METHODS: MESA recruited 6814 US adults, 45 to 84 years of age, free of clinical CVD at baseline, including Black, White, Hispanic, and Chinese individuals (2000-2002). Using Cox proportional hazards modeling with time-updated covariates, we evaluated the association of self-reported race and ethnicity with all-cause and adjudicated CVD mortality, with progressive adjustments for age and sex, SES (neighborhood SES, income, education, and health insurance), lifestyle and psychosocial risk factors, clinical risk factors, and immigration history. RESULTS: During a median of 15.8 years of follow-up, 22.8% of participants (n=1552) died, of which 5.3% (n=364) died of CVD. After adjusting for age and sex, Black participants had a 34% higher mortality hazard (hazard ratio [HR], 1.34 [95% CI, 1.19-1.51]), Chinese participants had a 21% lower mortality hazard (HR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.66-0.95]), and there was no mortality difference in Hispanic participants (HR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.86-1.14]) compared with White participants. After adjusting for SES, the mortality HR for Black participants compared with White participants was reduced (HR, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.01-1.34]) but still statistically significant. With adjustment for SES, the mortality hazards for Chinese and Hispanic participants also decreased in comparison with White participants. After further adjustment for additional risk factors and immigration history, Hispanic participants (HR, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.63-0.94]) had a lower mortality risk than White participants, and hazard ratios for Black participants (HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 0.92-1.26]) and Chinese participants (HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.60-1.08]) were not significantly different from those of White participants. Similar trends were seen for CVD mortality, although the age- and sex-adjusted HR for CVD mortality for Black participants compared with White participants was greater than all-cause mortality (HR, 1.72 [95% CI, 1.34-2.21] compared with HR, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.19-1.51]). CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight persistent racial and ethnic differences in overall and CVD mortality, largely attributable to social determinants of health, and support the need to identify and act on systemic factors that shape differences in health across racial and ethnic groups.

Determinants of Incident Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Events Among Those With Absent Coronary Artery Calcium: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The 2018 American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology/Multisociety cholesterol guideline states that statin therapy may be withheld or delayed among intermediate-risk individuals in the absence of coronary artery calcium (CAC=0). We evaluated whether traditional cardiovascular risk factors are associated with incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events among individuals with CAC=0 over long-term follow-up. METHODS: We included participants with CAC=0 at baseline from the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), a prospective cohort study of individuals free of clinical ASCVD at baseline. We used multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models to study the association between cardiovascular risk factors (cigarette smoking, diabetes, hypertension, preventive medication use [aspirin and statin], family history of premature ASCVD, chronic kidney disease, waist circumference, lipid and inflammatory markers) and adjudicated incident ASCVD outcomes. RESULTS: We studied 3416 individuals (mean [SD] age 58 [9] years; 63% were female, 33% White, 31% Black, 12% Chinese American, and 24% Hispanic). Over a median follow-up of 16 years, there were 189 ASCVD events (composite of coronary heart disease and stroke) of which 91 were coronary heart disease, 88 were stroke, and 10 were both coronary heart disease and stroke events. The unadjusted event rates of ASCVD were ≤5 per 1000 person-years among individuals with CAC=0 for most risk factors with the exception of current cigarette smoking (7.3), diabetes (8.9), hypertension (5.4), and chronic kidney disease (6.8). After multivariable adjustment, risk factors that were significantly associated with ASCVD included current cigarette smoking: hazard ratio, 2.12 (95% CI, 1.32-3.42); diabetes: hazard ratio, 1.68 (95% CI, 1.01-2.80); and hypertension: hazard ratio, 1.57 (95% CI, 1.06-2.33). CONCLUSIONS: Current cigarette smoking, diabetes, and hypertension are independently associated with incident ASCVD over a 16-year follow-up among those with CAC=0.

Snippets of the History of the American Journal of Epidemiology.

In this article, I present a brief summary of landmark events in the American Journal of Epidemiology, including its founding, the first few decades, the change in name, the increasing focus on nontransmissible disease, and selected key manuscripts. A list of developments that will likely result in new papers submitted to epidemiology journals are also described, and they include themes such as consequential epidemiology and the use of artificial intelligence methods in epidemiologic data analyses.

Personality disorders and cause-specific mortality: a nationwide study of 2 million adolescents.

BACKGROUND: Personality disorders are prevalent in 6-10% of the population, but their risk for cause-specific mortality is unclear. The aim of the study was to assess the association between personality disorders diagnosed in late adolescence and all-cause as well as cause-specific (cardiovascular-related, external-related) mortality. METHODS: We performed a longitudinal study on a historical prospective cohort based on nationwide screening prior to recruitment to the Israeli army. The study participants were 16-19-year-old persons who attended the army screening (medical and cognitive, including screening for psychiatric disorders) between 1967 and 2006. Participants were followed from 1967 till 2011. RESULTS: The study included 2 051 606 subjects, of whom 1 229 252 (59.9%) were men and 822 354 (40.1%) were women, mean age 17.36 years. There were 55 508 (4.5%) men and 8237 (1.0%) women diagnosed with personality disorders. The adjusted hazard ratio (HRs) for coronary, stroke, cardiovascular, external-related causes and all-cause mortality among men with personality disorders were 1.34 (1.03-1.74), 1.82 (1.20-2.76), 1.45 (1.23-1.71), 1.41 (1.30-1.53) and 1.44 (1.36-1.51), respectively. The absolute rate difference for all-cause mortality was 56.07 and 13.19 per 105 person-years among men and women, respectively. Among women with personality disorders, the adjusted HRs for external-related causes and all-cause mortality were 2.74 (1.87-4.00) and 2.01 (1.56-2.58). Associations were already evident within 10 years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Personality disorder in late adolescence is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular, external- and all-cause mortality. Increased cardiovascular mortality is evident before the age of 40 years and may point to the importance of lifestyle education already in youth.

Association of Physical Activity With Maximal and Submaximal Tests of Exercise Capacity in Middle- and Older-Aged Adults.

Although physical activity (PA) is an important determinant of exercise capacity, the association between these constructs is modest. The authors investigated the associations of self-reported and objectively measured PA with maximal and submaximal tests of exercise capacity. Participants aged ≥40 years (N = 413; 49.6% female) completed a PA questionnaire, wore a uniaxial accelerometer (5.2 ± 1.1 days), and performed maximal (cardiopulmonary exercise test [CPET]) and submaximal (long-distance corridor walk) tests with indirect calorimetry (oxygen consumption, V˙O2). Linear regression models were fitted to assess the variation in exercise capacity explained (partial eta squared, η2) by PA variables. Accelerometer-measured vigorous (η2 = 22% female; η2 = 16% male) and total PA (η2 = 17% female; η2 = 13% male) explained the most variance in CPET V˙O2 (p < .001). All η2 values were lower for long-distance corridor walk V˙O2 (η2 ≤ 11%). Age contributed more to CPET V˙O2 than any PA variable in males (η2 = 32%), but not in females (η2 = 19%). Vigorous and total PA play important roles in CPET V˙O2 in mid to late life.

Chronic Stress Burden, Visceral Adipose Tissue, and Adiposity-Related Inflammation: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated the role of chronic stress burden on adiposity and adiposity-related inflammation with two hypotheses: a) greater chronic stress is associated with higher central adiposity and selective accumulation of visceral adipose tissue (VAT) compared with subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), and b) associations between VAT and inflammatory biomarkers are exacerbated when chronic stress is high. METHODS: Data come from 1809 participants included in a Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis ancillary study of body composition and adiposity-related inflammation. Chronic psychosocial stress was measured with a five-item version of the Chronic Stress Burden Scale. First, we tested associations between chronic stress (three-level categorical variable) and VAT, SAT, and VAT/SAT ratio. Second, we tested whether associations between VAT and inflammatory biomarkers varied by level of chronic stress. RESULTS: Participants were approximately 65 years, 50% female, and 40.5% White, 25.6% Hispanic, 21.2% African American, and 12.8% Chinese American. About half of the sample reported little to no stress, and a quarter and a fifth of the sample reported medium and high levels of stress. Higher levels of chronic stress were associated with greater VAT and SAT, but not VAT/SAT ratio. Greater levels of VAT were associated with increased levels of adiposity-related inflammation in a graded pattern. These associations did not vary by stress level. CONCLUSIONS: Greater chronic stress burden is associated with both central and subcutaneous adiposity. We found no evidence that the associations between VAT and inflammatory biomarkers are exacerbated by chronic stress. Findings contribute to ongoing literature untangling pathways in which psychosocial stress contributes to adiposity-related inflammation.

Perspectives on the Future of Epidemiology: A Framework for Training.

Over the past century, the field of epidemiology has evolved and adapted to changing public health needs. Challenges include newly emerging public health concerns across broad and diverse content areas, new methods, and vast data sources. We recognize the need to engage and educate the next generation of epidemiologists and prepare them to tackle these issues of the 21st century. In this commentary, we suggest a skeleton framework upon which departments of epidemiology should build their curriculum. We propose domains that include applied epidemiology, biological and social determinants of health, communication, creativity and ability to collaborate and lead, statistical methods, and study design. We believe all students should gain skills across these domains to tackle the challenges posed to us. The aim is to train smart thinkers, not technicians, to embrace challenges and move the expanding field of epidemiology forward.

The diffuse-type gastric cancer epidemiology enigma.

BACKGROUND: Intestinal and diffuse gastric adenocarcinomas differ in clinical, epidemiological and molecular features. However, most of the concepts related to the intestinal-type are translated to gastric adenocarcinoma in general; thus, the peculiarities of the diffuse-type are underappreciated. RESULTS: Besides its growing importance, there are many gaps about the diffuse-type carcinogenesis and, as a result, its epidemiologic and pathogenetic features remain poorly understood. CONCLUSIONS: Alternative hypotheses to explain these features are discussed, including the role of the gastric microbiota, medical therapies, and modifications in the stomach's microenvironment.

Plasma n-3 and n-6 Fatty Acids Are Differentially Related to Carotid Plaque and Its Progression: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: ω-3 (n-3) fatty acids (FAs) have long been considered healthful dietary components, yet recent clinical trials have questioned their cardiovascular benefits. By contrast, the ω-6 (n-6) FAs have been considered harmful, proatherogenic macronutrients, despite an absence of empirical evidence supporting this hypothesis. We aimed to determine whether plasma n-3 and n-6 FAs are related to risk of carotid plaque and its progression in 3327 participants of MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). APPROACH AND RESULTS: Carotid plaque was assessed using ultrasonography at baseline and after a median period of 9.5 years. Plasma phospholipid n-3 and n-6 FAs were determined using gas chromatography-flame ionization detection. Relative risk regression analyses assessed the relations of FAs with the presence or progression of carotid plaque adjusted for typical cardiovascular disease risk factors. At baseline, it was found that participants in the fourth quartile of n-3 docosahexaenoic acid showed a 9% lower risk of carotid plaque (P=0.05), whereas those in the second quartile of n-3 α-linolenic acid showed an 11% greater risk compared with respective referent quartiles (P=0.02). In prospective analyses, individuals in the top quartile of docosahexaenoic acid showed a 12% lower risk of carotid plaque progression during 9.5 years compared with those in the referent quartile (P=0.002). No significant relations were observed among n-6 FAs and plaque outcomes. No significant race/ethnicity interactions were found. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support docosahexaenoic acid as an atheroprotective macronutrient, whereas null findings for n-6 FAs challenge the view that they promote atherosclerosis.

Prevalence of type 2 diabetes among adolescents in Brazil: Findings from Study of Cardiovascular Risk in Adolescents (ERICA).

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in adolescents represents a clinical challenge related to lifestyle and obesity; however, only a few data are available in developing countries. Therefore, our aim was to investigate the prevalence of T2DM and prediabetes among Brazilian adolescents, as well as to describe the cardio-metabolic profile according to the diagnosis. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional school-based multicenter study including youth aged 12 to 17 years from cities with more than 100 000 inhabitants in Brazil (n = 37 854 students). Fasting glucose, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and other cardio-metabolic risk factors were measured. Prediabetes was defined by glucose levels 100 to 125 mg/dL or HbA1c 5.7% to 6.4%. T2DM was defined by self-report, glucose ≥126 mg/dL or HbA1c ≥ 6.5%. Multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of prediabetes or T2DM according to covariates. RESULTS: Prevalences of prediabetes and T2DM were 22.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 20.6%-23.4%) and 3.3% (95% CI 2.9%-3.7%), respectively. This estimates represented 213 830 adolescents living with T2DM and 1.46 million adolescents with prediabetes in Brazil. Prevalences of cardio-metabolic risk factors were higher in adolescents with prediabetes and T2DM. In the multinomial logistic model, obesity (OR 1.59, 95% CI 1.20-2.11), high waist circumference (OR 1.51, 95% CI 1.13-2.01), and skipping breakfast (OR 1.48, 95% CI 1.21-1.81) were associated with an increased OR for T2DM, while studying at rural area (OR 0.56, 95% CI 0.41-0.78) was associated with a decreased OR for T2DM. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of T2DM and prediabetes was high among Brazilian adolescents, which highlights that this disease became a public health challenge not only among adults in Brazil.

Sex and ethnicity modify the associations between individual and contextual socioeconomic indicators and ideal cardiovascular health: MESA study.

BACKGROUND: Low socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, but its association with different markers of SES may be heterogeneous by sex and race/ethnicity. METHODS: We have examined the relationships of four SES markers (education, family income, occupation and neighborhood SES) to ideal cardiovascular health (ICH), an index formed by seven variables. A total of 6792 cohort participants from six regions in the USA: Baltimore City and Baltimore County, MD; Chicago, IL; Forsyth County, NC; Los Angeles County, CA; New York, NY; and St. Paul, MN of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) (52.8% women) were recruited at baseline (2000-2) and included in the present analysis. RESULTS: ICH was classified as poor, intermediate or ideal. Level of education was significantly and inversely associated with ICH in non-Hispanic White men and women, in Chinese-American and Hispanic American men and African-American women. Family income was inversely and significantly associated with poor ICH in African-American men only. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the strength of the associations between some SES markers and ICH differ between sexes and race/ethnic groups.

Is a Family History of the Breast Cancer Related to Women's Cancer Prevention Behaviors?

Families share behavioral risk factors that can increase the risk of cancer development. We examined whether having a positive family breast cancer history is associated with health behaviors/screening practices. Analyses were based on a cross-sectional sample of 545 Brazilian National Cancer Institute Hospital patients with newly diagnosed breast cancer in 2013/2014. Women were categorized according to their breast cancer family history. Age-adjusted Poisson regressions with robust variance were performed to estimate the association between breast cancer family history and selected health-related behaviors and screening practices. About one fourth of women reported a positive family history of breast cancer. Contrary to expectation, we found that women with a family history of breast cancer did not report healthier behaviors more often than those without a family history. However, those with a family history were more likely to report a mammographic exam prior to the mammographic diagnosis. Our study suggests that having a family history of cancer is not sufficient to change women's behaviors about physical activity, weight control and diet, smoking, and drinking, but it seems to influence their breast cancer screening behavior. Our results suggest the need to increase women's information and/or understanding that healthier lifestyles contribute to cancer prevention.

Factors of health in the protection against death and cardiovascular disease among adults with subclinical atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Although cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention traditionally emphasizes risk factor control, recent evidence also supports the promotion of "health factors" associated with cardiovascular wellness. However, whether such health factors exist among adults with advanced subclinical atherosclerosis is unknown. We aimed to study the association between health factors and events among persons with elevated coronary artery calcium (CAC). METHODS: Self-reported health-factors studied included nonsmoking, physical activity, Mediterranean-style diet, sleep quality, emotional support, low stress burden, and absence of depression. Measured health-factors included optimal weight, blood pressure, lipids, and glucose. Multivariable-adjusted Cox models examined the association between health factors and incident CVD or mortality, independent of risk factor treatment. Accelerated failure time models assessed whether health factors were associated with relative time delays in disease onset. RESULTS: Among 1,601 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants with CAC >100 without baseline clinical atherosclerotic CVD, mean age was 69 (±9) years, 64% were male, and median CAC score was 332 Agatston units. Over 12 years of follow-up, nonsmoking, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels >40 mg/dL for men and >50 mg/dL for women, and low stress burden were inversely associated with ASCVD (hazard ratios ranging from 0.58 to 0.71, all P<.05). Nonsmoking, glucose levels <100 mg/dL, regular physical activity, and low stress burden were inversely associated with mortality (hazard ratios ranging from 0.40 to 0.77, all P<.05). Each of these factors was also associated with delays in onset of clinical disease, as was absence of depression. CONCLUSIONS: Adults with elevated CAC appear to have healthy lifestyle options to lower risk and delay onset of CVD, over and above standard preventive therapies.

Trends in Illicit Cigarette Use in Brazil Estimated From Legal Sales, 2012-2016.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the proportions of illicit cigarette consumption in Brazil from 2012 to 2016, a period of sharp increases in cigarette taxes. METHODS: We used an approach based on legal sales provided by the Secretariat of Federal Revenues and self-reported consumption data from an annually conducted telephone survey (VIGITEL) to estimate the changes over time in illegal cigarette use in Brazil. For that purpose, we also used available information on the proportion of illegal cigarette consumption from a nationwide household survey conducted in 2013 to calculate a constant proportion of underreporting from VIGITEL in relation to total consumption and sales in Brazil. RESULTS: There was an increase in the estimated proportion of illicit cigarette use from 2012 to 2013 (from 28.6% to 32.3%), then a decrease from 2013 to 2014 (32.3% to 28.8%), and then a sustained trend of increase from 2014 to 2016 (28.8% to 42.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Novel and feasible approaches to estimate changes over time in the illegal market are important for helping the effective implementation of tobacco excise tax policy.

Assessing the relationship between smoking and abdominal obesity in a National Survey of Adolescents in Brazil.

Abdominal obesity is even a stronger risk factor than overall obesity for noncommunicable chronic diseases. We examined the association between smoking and abdominal obesity among adolescents. Analyses were based on 38,813 subjects aged 15-17 years from the Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents (ERICA), a Brazilian school-based national survey. Abdominal obesity was defined considering waist circumference (WC) percentiles. Statistical analyses, stratified by sex, considered the sample complex design. Poisson regression with robust variance was used to estimate smoker-to-nonsmoker abdominal obesity prevalence ratio (PR), adjusting by sociodemographic and lifestyle variables. Higher prevalence of abdominal obesity was observed among adolescents who consumed >1 cigarettes/day, comparing to nonsmokers: considering WC >80th percentile, adjusted-PR for boys was 1.27 [95%CI:1.05,1.52] and, for girls, 1.09 [95%CI:1.00,1.19]; using the 90th percentile, adjusted-PR were 2.24 [95%CI:1.70,2.94] and 1.27 [95%CI:1.12,1.46], respectively for male and female adolescents. Our findings suggest a positive association between cigarette consumption and the prevalence of abdominal obesity, for both boys and girls. Although other studies had found this association in adults, our study contributes to this discussion by assessing it in adolescents using a nationwide representative sample of medium and large municipalities.

Role of Coronary Artery Calcium Score of Zero and Other Negative Risk Markers for Cardiovascular Disease: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

BACKGROUND: Limited attention has been paid to negative cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk markers despite their potential to improve medical decision making. We compared 13 negative risk markers using diagnostic likelihood ratios (DLRs), which model the change in risk for an individual after the result of an additional test. METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined 6814 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Coronary artery calcium score of 0, carotid intima-media thickness <25th percentile, absence of carotid plaque, brachial flow-mediated dilation >5% change, ankle-brachial index >0.9 and <1.3, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein <2 mg/L, homocysteine <10 µmol/L, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide <100 pg/mL, no microalbuminuria, no family history of coronary heart disease (any/premature), absence of metabolic syndrome, and healthy lifestyle were compared for all and hard coronary heart disease and all CVD events over the 10-year follow-up. Models were adjusted for traditional CVD risk factors. Among all negative risk markers, coronary artery calcium score of 0 was the strongest, with an adjusted mean DLR of 0.41 (SD, 0.12) for all coronary heart disease and 0.54 (SD, 0.12) for CVD, followed by carotid intima-media thickness <25th percentile (DLR, 0.65 [SD, 0.04] and 0.75 [SD, 0.04], respectively). High-sensitivity C-reactive protein <2 mg/L and normal ankle-brachial index had DLRs >0.80. Among clinical features, absence of any family history of coronary heart disease was the strongest (DLRs, 0.76 [SD, 0.07] and 0.81 [SD, 0.06], respectively). Net reclassification improvement analyses yielded similar findings, with coronary artery calcium score of 0 resulting in the largest, most accurate downward risk reclassification. CONCLUSIONS: Negative results of atherosclerosis-imaging tests, particularly coronary artery calcium score of 0, resulted in the greatest downward shift in estimated CVD risk. These results may help guide discussions on the identification of individuals less likely to receive net benefit from lifelong preventive pharmacotherapy.

Adult Height, Prevalent Coronary Artery Calcium Score, and Incident Cardiovascular Disease Outcomes in a Multiethnic Cohort.

We assessed the relationships among adult height, coronary artery calcium (CAC) score, incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events, and atrial fibrillation (AFib) in a multiethnic cohort. We used race/ethnicity-specific height (dichotomized by median value and in quartiles) as the predictor variable within the 4 racial/ethnic groups in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (n = 6,814). After a mean of 10.2 years of follow-up (2000-2012), 556 ASCVD events (8.2%) and 539 AFib events (7.9%) occurred. Adult height was not associated with prevalent CAC score (ln(CAC + 1) or categories). Tall stature (i.e., race/ethnicity-specific height ≥median) had a significant but opposite association with future ASCVD and AFib (hazard ratios were 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.56, 0.92) and 1.38 (95% confidence interval: 1.07, 1.79), respectively). We observed a gradient-response but opposite association between quartiles of race/ethnicity-specific height and ASCVD/AFib events in our multivariable models. A formal test of interaction between race/ethnicity-specific height and sex was not significant in the ASCVD model (P = 0.78) but was significant in the AFib model (P = 0.03). Tall stature was associated (in a gradient-response fashion) with reduced risk of ASCVD events and increased risk of AFib. Adult height may signal interactions between genetic and environmental factors and may provide risk information independent of current traditional risk factors and CAC score.

Waist-to-Height Ratio as a Predictor of C-Reactive Protein Levels.

BACKGROUND: C-reactive protein is an acute-phase protein that has been found in association with adiposity and cardiovascular disease risk. In this paper, the objective was to assess the relationship of C-reactive protein to four anthropometric measurements: body mass index, waist-to-height ratio, C index, and waist circumference. METHODS: A cross-sectional random sample of the Study of Cardiovascular Risk in Adolescents (Portuguese acronym "ERICA") was included in the study. The analysis was adjusted for the complex sampling design. Poisson regression models with robust variance were used to estimate a multivariate-adjusted prevalence rate ratio expressing the relationship of each anthropometric measure to C-reactive protein. We evaluated adolescents aged 12 to 17 years participating in the capital of Porto Alegre, Brazil. RESULTS: In all, 778 adolescents were included (60% female, 58% aged 15-17 years). Waist-to-height ratio was found to be the strongest adiposity marker associated with C-reactive protein even after adjusting for age, sex, smoking, physical activity, and insulin resistance (prevalence rate ratio = 7.09; 95% confidence interval, 5.01-9.18; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Waist-to-height ratio is a strong predictor of C-reactive protein in adolescents in Porto Alegre, Brazil.

Understanding the relationship between sales of legal cigarettes and deaths: A case-study in Brazil.

Brazil has experienced a large decline in cigarette consumption in the last 25years. However, the most recent annual reports from the tobacco industry market leader in Brazil did not show a decrease in its gross profits. This is particularly important because tobacco industry donations/sponsorships come directly from the industry's reported gross-profits and are used to subvert health policies. The aim of the present study was to estimate (i) tobacco industry's gross-profit from legal cigarettes sales, and (ii) all-cause smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) among current Brazilian smokers who consumed legal cigarettes in 2013. We collected information on prevalence of legal cigarette use, cigarette consumption, price per cigarette pack among individuals aged ≥35years from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey, legal cigarettes sales (e.g., average costs and total volume of sales) provided by the Federal Secretariat of Revenues, and population mortality from the available vital statistics. With a gross-profit of US$1.378 billion (1.307-1.434) from sales of 54.6 billion sticks of cigarettes (53.4-55.5) to 8,424,510 smokers aged 35years and older in Brazil in 2013, cumulative SADs were estimated at 96,012 (85,647-107,654) (around 34% of cumulative SADs also including current smoking of illegal cigarettes and past smoking), i.e., one SAD was equivalent to a gross-profit of US$14,352 (12,140-16,743). Our results revealed the association between sales of cigarettes, gross-profits, and deaths in Brazil. As tobacco industry donations/sponsorships originate from industry's gross profits, which, in turn, depend on cigarette sales, our findings may be useful for increasing "moral pressure" on individuals and institutions and help countries in stopping tobacco industry interference in health policies.