Genetic interactions drive heterogeneity in causal variant effect sizes for gene expression and complex traits.

Despite the growing number of genome-wide association studies (GWASs), it remains unclear to what extent gene-by-gene and gene-by-environment interactions influence complex traits in humans. The magnitude of genetic interactions in complex traits has been difficult to quantify because GWASs are generally underpowered to detect individual interactions of small effect. Here, we develop a method to test for genetic interactions that aggregates information across all trait-associated loci. Specifically, we test whether SNPs in regions of European ancestry shared between European American and admixed African American individuals have the same causal effect sizes. We hypothesize that in African Americans, the presence of genetic interactions will drive the causal effect sizes of SNPs in regions of European ancestry to be more similar to those of SNPs in regions of African ancestry. We apply our method to two traits: gene expression in 296 African Americans and 482 European Americans in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) in 74K African Americans and 296K European Americans in the Million Veteran Program (MVP). We find significant evidence for genetic interactions in our analysis of gene expression; for LDL-C, we observe a similar point estimate, although this is not significant, most likely due to lower statistical power. These results suggest that gene-by-gene or gene-by-environment interactions modify the effect sizes of causal variants in human complex traits.

A multi-population phenome-wide association study of genetically-predicted height in the Million Veteran Program.

BACKGROUND: Height has been associated with many clinical traits but whether such associations are causal versus secondary to confounding remains unclear in many cases. To systematically examine this question, we performed a Mendelian Randomization-Phenome-wide association study (MR-PheWAS) using clinical and genetic data from a national healthcare system biobank. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Analyses were performed using data from the US Veterans Affairs (VA) Million Veteran Program in non-Hispanic White (EA, n = 222,300) and non-Hispanic Black (AA, n = 58,151) adults in the US. We estimated height genetic risk based on 3290 height-associated variants from a recent European-ancestry genome-wide meta-analysis. We compared associations of measured and genetically-predicted height with phenome-wide traits derived from the VA electronic health record, adjusting for age, sex, and genetic principal components. We found 345 clinical traits associated with measured height in EA and an additional 17 in AA. Of these, 127 were associated with genetically-predicted height at phenome-wide significance in EA and 2 in AA. These associations were largely independent from body mass index. We confirmed several previously described MR associations between height and cardiovascular disease traits such as hypertension, hyperlipidemia, coronary heart disease (CHD), and atrial fibrillation, and further uncovered MR associations with venous circulatory disorders and peripheral neuropathy in the presence and absence of diabetes. As a number of traits associated with genetically-predicted height frequently co-occur with CHD, we evaluated effect modification by CHD status of genetically-predicted height associations with risk factors for and complications of CHD. We found modification of effects of MR associations by CHD status for atrial fibrillation/flutter but not for hypertension, hyperlipidemia, or venous circulatory disorders. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that height may be an unrecognized but biologically plausible risk factor for several common conditions in adults. However, more studies are needed to reliably exclude horizontal pleiotropy as a driving force behind at least some of the MR associations observed in this study.

Relationship Between Ascending Thoracic Aortic Diameter and Blood Pressure: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies identified elevated blood pressure (BP) as a strong risk factor for thoracic aortic dilation, and BP reduction is the primary medical intervention recommended to prevent progression of aortic aneurysms. However, although BP may impact aortic dilation, aortic size may also impact BP. The causal relationship between BP and thoracic aortic size has not been reliably established. METHODS: Genome-wide association studies summary statistics were obtained for BP and ascending thoracic aortic diameter (AscAoD). Causal effects of BP on AscAoD were estimated using 2-sample Mendelian randomization using a range of pleiotropy-robust methods. RESULTS: Genetically predicted increased systolic BP, diastolic BP, and mean arterial pressure all significantly associate with higher AscAoD (systolic BP: ß estimate, 0.0041 mm/mm Hg [95% CI, 0.0008-0.0074]; P=0.02, diastolic BP: ß estimate, 0.0272 mm/mm Hg [95% CI, 0.0224-0.0320]; P<0.001, and mean arterial pressure: ß estimate, 0.0168 mm/mm Hg [95% CI, 0.0130-0.0206]; P<0.001). Genetically predicted pulse pressure, meanwhile, had an inverse association with AscAoD (ß estimate, -0.0155 mm/mm Hg [95% CI, -0.0213 to -0.0096]; P<0.001). Multivariable Mendelian randomization analyses showed that genetically predicted increased mean arterial pressure and reduced pulse pressure were independently associated with AscAoD. Bidirectional Mendelian randomization demonstrated that genetically predicted AscAoD was inversely associated with pulse pressure (ß estimate, -2.0721 mm Hg/mm [95% CI, -3.1137 to -1.0306]; P<0.001) and systolic BP (ß estimate, -1.2878 mm Hg/mm [95% CI, -2.3533 to -0.2224]; P=0.02), while directly associated with diastolic BP (0.8203 mm Hg/mm [95% CI, 0.2735-1.3672]; P=0.004). CONCLUSIONS: BP likely contributes causally to ascending thoracic aortic dilation. Increased AscAoD likely contributes to lower systolic BP and pulse pressure, but not diastolic BP, consistent with the hemodynamic consequences of a reduced aortic diameter.

Understanding the comorbidity between posttraumatic stress severity and coronary artery disease using genome-wide information and electronic health records.

The association between coronary artery disease (CAD) and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) contributes to the high morbidity and mortality observed for these conditions. To understand the dynamics underlying PTSD-CAD comorbidity, we investigated large-scale genome-wide association (GWA) statistics from the Million Veteran Program (MVP), the UK Biobank (UKB), the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium, and the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D Consortium. We observed a genetic correlation of CAD with PTSD case-control and quantitative outcomes, ranging from 0.18 to 0.32. To investigate possible cause-effect relationships underlying these genetic correlations, we performed a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis, observing a significant bidirectional relationship between CAD and PTSD symptom severity. Genetically-determined PCL-17 (PTSD 17-item Checklist) total score was associated with increased CAD risk (odds ratio = 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 95% CI = 1.01-1.06). Conversely, CAD genetic liability was associated with reduced PCL-17 total score (beta = -0.42; 95% CI = -0.04 to -0.81). Because of these opposite-direction associations, we conducted a pleiotropic meta-analysis to investigate loci with concordant vs. discordant effects on PCL-17 and CAD, observing that concordant-effect loci were enriched for molecular pathways related to platelet amyloid precursor protein (beta = 1.53, p = 2.97 × 10-7) and astrocyte activation regulation (beta = 1.51, p = 2.48 × 10-6) while discordant-effect loci were enriched for biological processes related to lipid metabolism (e.g., triglyceride-rich lipoprotein particle clearance, beta = 2.32, p = 1.61 × 10-10). To follow up these results, we leveraged MVP and UKB electronic health records (EHR) to assess longitudinal changes in the association between CAD and posttraumatic stress severity. This EHR-based analysis highlighted that earlier CAD diagnosis is associated with increased PCL-total score later in life, while lower PCL total score was associated with increased risk of a later CAD diagnosis (Mann-Kendall trend test: MVP tau = 0.932, p < 2 × 10-16; UKB tau = 0.376, p = 0.005). In conclusion, both our genetically-informed analyses and our EHR-based follow-up investigation highlighted a bidirectional relationship between PTSD and CAD where multiple pleiotropic mechanisms are likely to be involved.

A phenome-wide association study of 26 mendelian genes reveals phenotypic expressivity of common and rare variants within the general population.

The clinical evaluation of a genetic syndrome relies upon recognition of a characteristic pattern of signs or symptoms to guide targeted genetic testing for confirmation of the diagnosis. However, individuals displaying a single phenotype of a complex syndrome may not meet criteria for clinical diagnosis or genetic testing. Here, we present a phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) approach to systematically explore the phenotypic expressivity of common and rare alleles in genes associated with four well-described syndromic diseases (Alagille (AS), Marfan (MS), DiGeorge (DS), and Noonan (NS) syndromes) in the general population. Using human phenotype ontology (HPO) terms, we systematically mapped 60 phenotypes related to AS, MS, DS and NS in 337,198 unrelated white British from the UK Biobank (UKBB) based on their hospital admission records, self-administrated questionnaires, and physiological measurements. We performed logistic regression adjusting for age, sex, and the first 5 genetic principal components, for each phenotype and each variant in the target genes (JAG1, NOTCH2 FBN1, PTPN1 and RAS-opathy genes, and genes in the 22q11.2 locus) and performed a gene burden test. Overall, we observed multiple phenotype-genotype correlations, such as the association between variation in JAG1, FBN1, PTPN11 and SOS2 with diastolic and systolic blood pressure; and pleiotropy among multiple variants in syndromic genes. For example, rs11066309 in PTPN11 was significantly associated with a lower body mass index, an increased risk of hypothyroidism and a smaller size for gestational age, all in concordance with NS-related phenotypes. Similarly, rs589668 in FBN1 was associated with an increase in body height and blood pressure, and a reduced body fat percentage as observed in Marfan syndrome. Our findings suggest that the spectrum of associations of common and rare variants in genes involved in syndromic diseases can be extended to individual phenotypes within the general population.

Use of Polygenic Risk Scores for Coronary Heart Disease in Ancestrally Diverse Populations.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: A polygenic risk score (PRS) is a measure of genetic liability to a disease and is typically normally distributed in a population. Individuals in the upper tail of this distribution often have relative risk equivalent to that of monogenic form of the disease. The majority of currently available PRSs for coronary heart disease (CHD) have been generated from cohorts of European ancestry (EUR) and vary in their applicability to other ancestry groups. In this report, we review the performance of PRSs for CHD across different ancestries and efforts to reduce variability in performance including novel population and statistical genetics approaches. RECENT FINDINGS: PRSs for CHD perform robustly in EUR populations but lag in performance in non-EUR groups, particularly individuals of African ancestry. Several large consortia have been established to enable genomic studies in diverse ancestry groups and develop methods to improve PRS performance in multi-ancestry contexts as well as admixed individuals. These include fine-mapping to ascertain causal variants, trans ancestry meta-analyses, and ancestry deconvolution in admixed individuals. PRSs are being used in the clinical setting but enthusiasm has been tempered by the variable performance in non-EUR ancestry groups. Increasing diversity in genomic association studies and continued innovation in methodological approaches are needed to improve PRS performance in non-EUR individuals for equitable implementation of genomic medicine.

Genetic Architecture of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm in the Million Veteran Program.

BACKGROUND: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is an important cause of cardiovascular mortality; however, its genetic determinants remain incompletely defined. In total, 10 previously identified risk loci explain a small fraction of AAA heritability. METHODS: We performed a genome-wide association study in the Million Veteran Program testing ≈18 million DNA sequence variants with AAA (7642 cases and 172 172 controls) in veterans of European ancestry with independent replication in up to 4972 cases and 99 858 controls. We then used mendelian randomization to examine the causal effects of blood pressure on AAA. We examined the association of AAA risk variants with aneurysms in the lower extremity, cerebral, and iliac arterial beds, and derived a genome-wide polygenic risk score (PRS) to identify a subset of the population at greater risk for disease. RESULTS: Through a genome-wide association study, we identified 14 novel loci, bringing the total number of known significant AAA loci to 24. In our mendelian randomization analysis, we demonstrate that a genetic increase of 10 mm Hg in diastolic blood pressure (odds ratio, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.24-1.66]; P=1.6×10-6), as opposed to systolic blood pressure (odds ratio, 1.06 [95% CI, 0.97-1.15]; P=0.2), likely has a causal relationship with AAA development. We observed that 19 of 24 AAA risk variants associate with aneurysms in at least 1 other vascular territory. A 29-variant PRS was strongly associated with AAA (odds ratioPRS, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.18-1.36]; PPRS=2.7×10-11 per SD increase in PRS), independent of family history and smoking risk factors (odds ratioPRS+family history+smoking, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.14-1.35]; PPRS=1.27×10-6). Using this PRS, we identified a subset of the population with AAA prevalence greater than that observed in screening trials informing current guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: We identify novel AAA genetic associations with therapeutic implications and identify a subset of the population at significantly increased genetic risk of AAA independent of family history. Our data suggest that extending current screening guidelines to include testing to identify those with high polygenic AAA risk, once the cost of genotyping becomes comparable with that of screening ultrasound, would significantly increase the yield of current screening at reasonable cost.

Substantial Cardiovascular Morbidity in Adults With Lower-Complexity Congenital Heart Disease.

BACKGROUND: Although lower-complexity cardiac malformations constitute the majority of adult congenital heart disease (ACHD), the long-term risks of adverse cardiovascular events and relationship with conventional risk factors in this population are poorly understood. We aimed to quantify the risk of adverse cardiovascular events associated with lower-complexity ACHD that is unmeasured by conventional risk factors. METHODS: A multitiered classification algorithm was used to select individuals with lower-complexity ACHD and individuals without ACHD for comparison among >500 000 British adults in the UK Biobank. ACHD diagnoses were subclassified as isolated aortic valve and noncomplex defects. Time-to-event analyses were conducted for the primary end points of fatal or nonfatal acute coronary syndrome, ischemic stroke, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation and a secondary combined end point for major adverse cardiovascular events. Maximum follow-up time for the study period was 22 years with retrospectively and prospectively collected data from the UK Biobank. RESULTS: We identified 2006 individuals with lower-complexity ACHD and 497 983 unexposed individuals in the UK Biobank (median age at enrollment, 58 [interquartile range, 51-63] years). Of the ACHD-exposed group, 59% were male, 51% were current or former smokers, 30% were obese, and 69%, 41%, and 7% were diagnosed or treated for hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and diabetes mellitus, respectively. After adjustment for 12 measured cardiovascular risk factors, ACHD remained strongly associated with the primary end points, with hazard ratios ranging from 2.0 (95% CI, 1.5-2.8; P<0.001) for acute coronary syndrome to 13.0 (95% CI, 9.4-18.1; P<0.001) for heart failure. ACHD-exposed individuals with ≤2 cardiovascular risk factors had a 29% age-adjusted incidence rate of major adverse cardiovascular events, in contrast to 13% in individuals without ACHD with ≥5 risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with lower-complexity ACHD had a higher burden of adverse cardiovascular events relative to the general population that was unaccounted for by conventional cardiovascular risk factors. These findings highlight the need for closer surveillance of patients with mild to moderate ACHD and further investigation into management and mechanisms of cardiovascular risk unique to this growing population of high-risk adults.

Fine-mapping of two differentiated thyroid carcinoma susceptibility loci at 9q22.33 and 14q13.3 detects novel candidate functional SNPs in Europeans from metropolitan France and Melanesians from New Caledonia.

Incidence of differentiated thyroid carcinoma varies considerably between countries and ethnic groups, with particularly high incidence rates in Melanesians of New Caledonia. Differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) has a familial relative risk higher than other cancers, highlighting the contribution of inherited factors to the disease. Recently, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) identified several DTC susceptibility loci. The most robust associations were reported at loci 9q22 (rs965513 and rs1867277) and 14q13 (rs944289 and rs116909734). In this study, we performed a fine-mapping study of the two gene regions among Europeans and Melanesians from Metropolitan France and New Caledonia. We examined 81 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at 9q22 and 561 SNPs at 14q13 in Europeans (625 cases/776 controls) and in Melanesians (244 cases/189 controls). The association with the four SNPs previously identified in GWAS was replicated in Europeans while only rs944289 was replicated in Melanesians. Among Europeans, we found that the two SNPs previously reported at 9q22 were not independently associated to DTC and that rs965513 was the predominant signal; at 14q13, we showed that the haplotype rs944289[C]-rs116909374[C]-rs999460[T] was significantly associated with DTC risk and that the association with rs116909374 differed by smoking status (p-interaction = 0.03). Among Melanesians, a new independent signal was observed at 14q13 for rs1755774 which is strongly correlated to rs2787423; this latter is potentially a functional variant. Significant interactions with parity (p < 0.05) and body mass index were observed for rs1755774 and rs2787423. This study contributed to a better characterization of the DTC loci 9q22 and 14q13 in Europeans and in Melanesians and has identified novel variants to be prioritized for further functional studies.

Genetic architecture distinguishes tinnitus from hearing loss.

Tinnitus is a heritable, highly prevalent auditory disorder treated by multiple medical specialties. Previous GWAS indicated high genetic correlations between tinnitus and hearing loss, with little indication of differentiating signals. We present a GWAS meta-analysis, triple previous sample sizes, and expand to non-European ancestries. GWAS in 596,905 Million Veteran Program subjects identified 39 tinnitus loci, and identified genes related to neuronal synapses and cochlear structural support. Applying state-of-the-art analytic tools, we confirm a large number of shared variants, but also a distinct genetic architecture of tinnitus, with higher polygenicity and large proportion of variants not shared with hearing difficulty. Tissue-expression analysis for tinnitus infers broad enrichment across most brain tissues, in contrast to hearing difficulty. Finally, tinnitus is not only correlated with hearing loss, but also with a spectrum of psychiatric disorders, providing potential new avenues for treatment. This study establishes tinnitus as a distinct disorder separate from hearing difficulties.

Genetic risk and likelihood of prostate cancer detection on first biopsy by ancestry.

Despite differences in prostate cancer risk across ancestry groups, relative performance of prostate cancer genetic risks scores (GRS) for positive biopsy prediction in different ancestry groups is unknown. This cross-sectional retrospective analysis examines the association between a polygenic hazard score (PHS290) and risk of prostate cancer diagnosis upon first biopsy in male veterans using 2-sided tests. Our analysis included 36 717 veterans (10 297 of African ancestry). Unadjusted rates of positive first prostate biopsy increased with higher genetic risk (low risk: 34%, high risk: 58%; P < .001). Among men of African ancestry, higher genetic risk was associated with increased prostate cancer detection on first biopsy (odds ratio = 2.18, 95% confidence interval = 1.93 to 2.47), but the effect was stronger among men of European descent (odds ratio = 3.89, 95% confidence interval = 3.62 to 4.18). These findings suggest that incorporating genetic risk into prediction models could better personalize biopsy decisions, although further study is needed to achieve equitable genetic risk stratification among ancestry groups.

Multi-Ancestry Polygenic Risk Score for Coronary Heart Disease Based on an Ancestrally Diverse Genome-Wide Association Study and Population-Specific Optimization.

BACKGROUND: Predictive performance of polygenic risk scores (PRS) varies across populations. To facilitate equitable clinical use, we developed PRS for coronary heart disease (CHD; PRSCHD) for 5 genetic ancestry groups. METHODS: We derived ancestry-specific and multi-ancestry PRSCHD based on pruning and thresholding (PRSPT) and ancestry-based continuous shrinkage priors (PRSCSx) applied to summary statistics from the largest multi-ancestry genome-wide association study meta-analysis for CHD to date, including 1.1 million participants from 5 major genetic ancestry groups. Following training and optimization in the Million Veteran Program, we evaluated the best-performing PRSCHD in 176,988 individuals across 9 diverse cohorts. RESULTS: Multi-ancestry PRSPT and PRSCSx outperformed ancestry-specific PRSPT and PRSCSx across a range of tuning values. Two best-performing multi-ancestry PRSCHD (ie, PRSPTmult and PRSCSxmult) and 1 ancestry-specific (PRSCSxEUR) were taken forward for validation. PRSPTmult demonstrated the strongest association with CHD in individuals of South Asian ancestry and European ancestry (odds ratio per 1 SD [95% CI, 2.75 [2.41-3.14], 1.65 [1.59-1.72]), followed by East Asian ancestry (1.56 [1.50-1.61]), Hispanic/Latino ancestry (1.38 [1.24-1.54]), and African ancestry (1.16 [1.11-1.21]). PRSCSxmult showed the strongest associations in South Asian ancestry (2.67 [2.38-3.00]) and European ancestry (1.65 [1.59-1.71]), lower in East Asian ancestry (1.59 [1.54-1.64]), Hispanic/Latino ancestry (1.51 [1.35-1.69]), and the lowest in African ancestry (1.20 [1.15-1.26]). CONCLUSIONS: The use of summary statistics from a large multi-ancestry genome-wide meta-analysis improved the performance of PRSCHD in most ancestry groups compared with single-ancestry methods. Despite the use of one of the largest and most diverse sets of training and validation cohorts to date, improvement of predictive performance was limited in African ancestry. This highlights the need for larger genome-wide association study datasets of underrepresented populations to enhance the performance of PRSCHD.

Rare variant contribution to the heritability of coronary artery disease.

Whole genome sequences (WGS) enable discovery of rare variants which may contribute to missing heritability of coronary artery disease (CAD). To measure their contribution, we apply the GREML-LDMS-I approach to WGS of 4949 cases and 17,494 controls of European ancestry from the NHLBI TOPMed program. We estimate CAD heritability at 34.3% assuming a prevalence of 8.2%. Ultra-rare (minor allele frequency ≤ 0.1%) variants with low linkage disequilibrium (LD) score contribute ~50% of the heritability. We also investigate CAD heritability enrichment using a diverse set of functional annotations: i) constraint; ii) predicted protein-altering impact; iii) cis-regulatory elements from a cell-specific chromatin atlas of the human coronary; and iv) annotation principal components representing a wide range of functional processes. We observe marked enrichment of CAD heritability for most functional annotations. These results reveal the predominant role of ultra-rare variants in low LD on the heritability of CAD. Moreover, they highlight several functional processes including cell type-specific regulatory mechanisms as key drivers of CAD genetic risk.

Genetic Determinants of the Interventricular Septum Are Linked to Ventricular Septal Defects and Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: A large proportion of genetic risk remains unexplained for structural heart disease involving the interventricular septum (IVS) including hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and ventricular septal defects. This study sought to develop a reproducible proxy of IVS structure from standard medical imaging, discover novel genetic determinants of IVS structure, and relate these loci to diseases of the IVS, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, and ventricular septal defect. METHODS: We estimated the cross-sectional area of the IVS from the 4-chamber view of cardiac magnetic resonance imaging in 32 219 individuals from the UK Biobank which was used as the basis of genome wide association studies and Mendelian randomization. RESULTS: Measures of IVS cross-sectional area at diastole were a strong proxy for the 3-dimensional volume of the IVS (Pearson r=0.814, P=0.004), and correlated with anthropometric measures, blood pressure, and diagnostic codes related to cardiovascular physiology. Seven loci with clear genomic consequence and relevance to cardiovascular biology were uncovered by genome wide association studies, most notably a single nucleotide polymorphism in an intron of CDKN1A (rs2376620; ß, 7.7 mm2 [95% CI, 5.8-11.0]; P=6.0×10-10), and a common inversion incorporating KANSL1 predicted to disrupt local chromatin structure (ß, 8.4 mm2 [95% CI, 6.3-10.9]; P=4.2×10-14). Mendelian randomization suggested that inheritance of larger IVS cross-sectional area at diastole was strongly associated with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy risk (pIVW=4.6×10-10) while inheritance of smaller IVS cross-sectional area at diastole was associated with risk for ventricular septal defect (pIVW=0.007). CONCLUSIONS: Automated estimates of cross-sectional area of the IVS supports discovery of novel loci related to cardiac development and Mendelian disease. Inheritance of genetic liability for either small or large IVS, appears to confer risk for ventricular septal defect or hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, respectively. These data suggest that a proportion of risk for structural and congenital heart disease can be localized to the common genetic determinants of size and shape of cardiovascular anatomy.

A Multi-Ancestry Polygenic Risk Score for Coronary Heart Disease Based on an Ancestrally Diverse Genome-Wide Association Study and Population-Specific Optimization.

Background: Predictive performance of polygenic risk scores (PRS) varies across populations. To facilitate equitable clinical use, we developed PRS for coronary heart disease (PRSCHD) for 5 genetic ancestry groups. Methods: We derived ancestry-specific and multi-ancestry PRSCHD based on pruning and thresholding (PRSP+T) and continuous shrinkage priors (PRSCSx) applied on summary statistics from the largest multi-ancestry genome-wide meta-analysis for CHD to date, including 1.1 million participants from 5 continental populations. Following training and optimization of PRSCHD in the Million Veteran Program, we evaluated predictive performance of the best performing PRSCHD in 176,988 individuals across 9 cohorts of diverse genetic ancestry. Results: Multi-ancestry PRSP+T outperformed ancestry specific PRSP+T across a range of tuning values. In training stage, for all ancestry groups, PRSCSx performed better than PRSP+T and multi-ancestry PRS outperformed ancestry-specific PRS. In independent validation cohorts, the selected multi-ancestry PRSP+T demonstrated the strongest association with CHD in individuals of South Asian (SAS) and European (EUR) ancestry (OR per 1SD[95% CI]; 2.75[2.41-3.14], 1.65[1.59-1.72]), followed by East Asian (EAS) (1.56[1.50-1.61]), Hispanic/Latino (HIS) (1.38[1.24-1.54]), and weakest in African (AFR) ancestry (1.16[1.11-1.21]). The selected multi-ancestry PRSCSx showed stronger associacion with CHD in comparison within each ancestry group where the association was strongest in SAS (2.67[2.38-3.00]) and EUR (1.65[1.59-1.71]), progressively decreasing in EAS (1.59[1.54-1.64]), HIS (1.51[1.35-1.69]), and lowest in AFR (1.20[1.15-1.26]). Conclusions: Utilizing diverse summary statistics from a large multi-ancestry genome-wide meta-analysis led to improved performance of PRSCHD in most ancestry groups compared to single-ancestry methods. Improvement of predictive performance was limited, specifically in AFR and HIS, despite use of one of the largest and most diverse set of training and validation cohorts to date. This highlights the need for larger GWAS datasets of AFR and HIS individuals to enhance performance of PRSCHD.

A multi-ancestry polygenic risk score improves risk prediction for coronary artery disease.

Identification of individuals at highest risk of coronary artery disease (CAD)-ideally before onset-remains an important public health need. Prior studies have developed genome-wide polygenic scores to enable risk stratification, reflecting the substantial inherited component to CAD risk. Here we develop a new and significantly improved polygenic score for CAD, termed GPSMult, that incorporates genome-wide association data across five ancestries for CAD (>269,000 cases and >1,178,000 controls) and ten CAD risk factors. GPSMult strongly associated with prevalent CAD (odds ratio per standard deviation 2.14, 95% confidence interval 2.10-2.19, P < 0.001) in UK Biobank participants of European ancestry, identifying 20.0% of the population with 3-fold increased risk and conversely 13.9% with 3-fold decreased risk as compared with those in the middle quintile. GPSMult was also associated with incident CAD events (hazard ratio per standard deviation 1.73, 95% confidence interval 1.70-1.76, P < 0.001), identifying 3% of healthy individuals with risk of future CAD events equivalent to those with existing disease and significantly improving risk discrimination and reclassification. Across multiethnic, external validation datasets inclusive of 33,096, 124,467, 16,433 and 16,874 participants of African, European, Hispanic and South Asian ancestry, respectively, GPSMult demonstrated increased strength of associations across all ancestries and outperformed all available previously published CAD polygenic scores. These data contribute a new GPSMult for CAD to the field and provide a generalizable framework for how large-scale integration of genetic association data for CAD and related traits from diverse populations can meaningfully improve polygenic risk prediction.

Oligogenic Architecture of Rare Noncoding Variants Distinguishes 4 Congenital Heart Disease Phenotypes.

BACKGROUND: Congenital heart disease (CHD) is highly heritable, but the power to identify inherited risk has been limited to analyses of common variants in small cohorts. METHODS: We performed reimputation of 4 CHD cohorts (n=55 342) to the TOPMed reference panel (freeze 5), permitting meta-analysis of 14 784 017 variants including 6 035 962 rare variants of high imputation quality as validated by whole genome sequencing. RESULTS: Meta-analysis identified 16 novel loci, including 12 rare variants, which displayed moderate or large effect sizes (median odds ratio, 3.02) for 4 separate CHD categories. Analyses of chromatin structure link 13 of the genome-wide significant loci to key genes in cardiac development; rs373447426 (minor allele frequency, 0.003 [odds ratio, 3.37 for Conotruncal heart disease]; P=1.49×10-8) is predicted to disrupt chromatin structure for 2 nearby genes BDH1 and DLG1 involved in Conotruncal development. A lead variant rs189203952 (minor allele frequency, 0.01 [odds ratio, 2.4 for left ventricular outflow tract obstruction]; P=1.46×10-8) is predicted to disrupt the binding sites of 4 transcription factors known to participate in cardiac development in the promoter of SPAG9. A tissue-specific model of chromatin conformation suggests that common variant rs78256848 (minor allele frequency, 0.11 [odds ratio, 1.4 for Conotruncal heart disease]; P=2.6×10-8) physically interacts with NCAM1 (PFDR=1.86×10-27), a neural adhesion molecule acting in cardiac development. Importantly, while each individual malformation displayed substantial heritability (observed h2 ranging from 0.26 for complex malformations to 0.37 for left ventricular outflow tract obstructive disease) the risk for different CHD malformations appeared to be separate, without genetic correlation measured by linkage disequilibrium score regression or regional colocalization. CONCLUSIONS: We describe a set of rare noncoding variants conferring significant risk for individual heart malformations which are linked to genes governing cardiac development. These results illustrate that the oligogenic basis of CHD and significant heritability may be linked to rare variants outside protein-coding regions conferring substantial risk for individual categories of cardiac malformation.