Decision tree analysis to predict the risk of intracranial haemorrhage after mild traumatic brain injury in patients taking DOACs.

BACKGROUND: Although the preliminary evidence seems to confirm a lower incidence of post-traumatic bleeding in patients treated with direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) compared to those on vitamin K antagonists (VKAs), the recommended management of mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI) in patients on DOACs is the same as those on the older VKAs, risking excessive use of CT in the emergency department (ED). AIM: To determine which easily identifiable clinical risk factors at the first medical evaluation in the ED may indicate an increased risk of post-traumatic intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) in patients on DOACs with MTBI. METHODS: Patients on DOACs who were evaluated in the ED for an MTBI from 2016 to 2020 at four centres in Northern Italy were considered. A decision tree analysis using the chi-square automatic interaction detection (CHAID) method was conducted to assess the risk of post-traumatic ICH after an MTBI. Known pre- and post-traumatic clinical risk factors that are easily identifiable at the first medical evaluation in the ED were used as input predictor variables. RESULTS: Among the 1146 patients on DOACs in this study, post-traumatic ICH was present in 6.5% (75/1146). Decision tree analysis using the CHAID method found post-traumatic TLOC, post-traumatic amnesia, major trauma dynamic, previous neurosurgery and evidence of trauma above the clavicles to be the strongest predictors associated with the presence of post-traumatic ICH in patients on DOACs. The absence of a concussion seems to indicate subgroups at very low risk of requiring neurosurgery. CONCLUSIONS: The machine-based CHAID model identified distinct prognostic groups of patients with distinct outcomes based on clinical factors. Decision trees can be useful as guides for patient selection and risk stratification.

Risk factors associated with intracranial bleeding and neurosurgery in patients with mild traumatic brain injury who are receiving direct oral anticoagulants.

BACKGROUND: The established clinical risk factors for post-traumatic intracranial bleeding have not been evaluated in patients receiving DOACs yet. AIM: Evaluating the association between clinic and patient characteristics and post-traumatic intracranial bleeding (ICH) in patients with mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI) and DOACs. METHODS: This is a retrospective observational study conducted on three Emergency Departments. Multivariate analysis provided association in terms of OR with the risk of ICH. The performance of the multivariate model, described in a nomogram, has been tested with discrimination and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: Of 473 DOACs patients with MTBI, 8.5% had post-traumatic ICH. On multivariable analysis, major dynamics (odds ratio [OR] 6.255), post-traumatic amnesia (OR 3.961), post-traumatic loss of consciousness (LOC, OR 7.353), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score < 15 (OR 3.315), post-traumatic headache (OR 4.168) and visible trauma above the clavicles (OR 3.378) were associated with a higher likelihood of ICH. The multivariate model, used for the nomogram construction, showed a good performance (AUC bias corrected with 5000 bootstraps resample 0.78). The DCAs showed a net clinical benefit of the prognostic model. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical risk factors can be used in DOACs patients to better define the risk of post-traumatic ICH.

Direct Oral Anticoagulant Treatment and Mild Traumatic Brain Injury: Risk of Early and Delayed Bleeding and the Severity of Injuries Compared with Vitamin K Antagonists.

BACKGROUND: The risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in patients taking direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) after mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI) is unclear. OBJECTIVES: To assess the differences in the risk of developing early, delayed, and comprehensive bleeding after MTBI among patients treated with DOACs as compared with those treated with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs). METHODS: All MTBI patients taking oral anticoagulants in our emergency department between June 2017 and August 2018 were included. All patients on oral anticoagulants underwent immediate cerebral computed tomography (CT) and a second CT scan after 24 h of clinical observation. RESULTS: There were 451 patients enrolled: 268 were on VKAs and 183 on DOACs. Of the DOAC-treated patients, 7.7% (14/183) presented overall intracranial bleeding, compared with 14.9% (40/268) of VKA-treated patients (p = 0.026). Early bleeding was present in 5.5% (10/183) of DOAC-treated patients and in 11.6% (31/268) of VKA-treated patients (p = 0.030). Multivariable analysis showed that VKA therapy (odds ratio [OR] 2.327), high-energy impact (OR 11.229), amnesia (OR 2.814), loss of consciousness (OR 5.286), Glasgow Coma Scale score < 15 (OR 4.719), and the presence of lesion above the clavicles (OR 2.742) were associated with significantly higher risk of global ICH. A nomogram was constructed to predict ICH using these six variables. Discrimination of the nomogram revealed good predictive abilities (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.817). CONCLUSIONS: DOAC-treated patients seem to have lower risk of posttraumatic intracranial bleeding compared with VKA-treated patients.

Management of whiplash-associated disorder in the Italian emergency department: the feasibility of an evidence-based continuous professional development course provided by physiotherapists.

PURPOSE: The management of whiplash and associated disorders (WAD) in the Italian Health System is still empirical and influenced by a single professional's expertise. Therefore, the purpose of our study is to describe a structured management changes in an Italian emergency department (ED) after an evidence based continuous professional development (CPD) course. METHODS: A CPD course was organized by Orthopedic Manipulative Physical Therapists (OMPT) for personnel of ED in the hospital Girolamo Fracastoro (San Bonifacio, Verona, Italy), based on latest scientific evidence. Data regarding the number of X-Rays, computed tomography (CT) scan, orthopaedic referrals, neck collars and WAD IV (i.e., severe diagnosis) before and after the course were compared. RESULTS: 3066 cases of WAD have been analyzed in 2016 and 2185 in 2017/2018. The number of X-Rays dropped down from 15.1% to 13.5%; the CT scans increased from 1.3% to 1.9%; the WAD IV diagnosis increased from 0.7% to 1.6%; the orthopaedic referrals dropped from 1.5% to 1.1%; the collars prescription dropped from 8.8% to 2.5%. CONCLUSION: An updated framework increased the efficiency of ED's maintaining the same level of safety (i.e., WAD IV diagnosis). Given that, it can also be argued that, in line with other countries, the implementation of an OMPT role within the ED multidisciplinary team is advised also in Italy.Implications for rehabilitationPhysiotherapists were commissioned to organize a management change of patients in an Italian Emergency Department clinical setting for the management of whiplash;Guidelines and other appropriate clinical rules facilitate the delivery of an evidence-based and more appropriate management and care plan;An inter-disciplinary continuous professional development course has the potential to positively influence patients' journey and to optimize the use of departmental resources;The involvement of other health professionals (e.g., Physiotherapists) within the Italian Emergency Department organizational chart might lead to further improvement of service provided.

Thirty-day mortality in atrial fibrillation patients with gastrointestinal bleeding in the emergency department: differences between direct oral anticoagulant and warfarin users.

More clinical data are required on the safety of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). Although patients treated with warfarin and DOACs have a similar risk of bleeding, short-term mortality after a gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) episode in DOAC-treated patients has not been clarified. The objective of this study was to assess differences in 30-day mortality in patients treated with DOACs or warfarin admitted to the emergency department (ED) for GIB. This was a multicentre retrospective study conducted over 2 years. The study included patients evaluated at three different EDs for GIB. The baseline characteristics were included. Subsequently, we assessed the differences in past medical history and clinical data between the two study groups (DOAC and warfarin users). Differences between the two groups were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier curves. Among the 284 patients presenting GIB enrolled in the study period, 39.4% (112/284) were treated with DOACs and 60.6% (172/284) were treated with warfarin. Overall, 8.1% (23/284) of patients died within 30 days. Among the 172 warfarin-treated patients, 8.7% (15/172) died within 30 days from ED evaluation. In the 112 DOAC-treated patients, the mortality rate was 7.1% (8/112). The Cox regression analysis, adjusted for possible clinical confounders, and the Kaplan-Meier curves did not outline differences between the two treatment groups. The present study shows no differences between DOACs and warfarin in short-term mortality after GIB.

Evaluation of Neutrophil-lymphocyte and Platelet-lymphocyte Ratios as Predictors of 30-day Mortality in Patients Hospitalized for an Episode of Acute Decompensated Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: To investigate the association between both neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and 30-day mortality in patients hospitalized for an episode of acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). METHODS: 439 patients admitted to emergency department (ED) for an episode of ADHF. Clinical history, demographic, clinical and laboratory data recorded at ED admission and then correlated with 30-day mortality. RESULTS: 45/439 (10.3%) patients died within 30 days from ED admission. The median values of NLR (4.1 vs 11.7) and PLR (159.1 vs 285.9) were significantly lower in survivors than in patients who died. The area under the ROC curve of NLR was significantly higher than that of the neutrophil count (0.76 vs 0.59; p<0.001), whilst the AUC of PLR was significantly better than that of the platelet count (0.71 vs 0.51; p<0.001). In univariate analysis, both NLR and PLR were significantly associated with 30-day. In the fully-adjusted multivariate model, NLR (odds ratio, 3.63) and PLR (odds ratio, 3.22) remained independently associated with 30-day mortality after ED admission. CONCLUSIONS: Routine assessment of NLR and PLR at ED admission may be a valuable aid to complement other conventional measures for assessing the medium-short risk of ADHF patients.