Political transition and emergent forest-conservation issues in Myanmar.

Political and economic transitions have had substantial impacts on forest conservation. Where transitions are underway or anticipated, historical precedent and methods for systematically assessing future trends should be used to anticipate likely threats to forest conservation and design appropriate and prescient policy measures to counteract them. Myanmar is transitioning from an authoritarian, centralized state with a highly regulated economy to a more decentralized and economically liberal democracy and is working to end a long-running civil war. With these transitions in mind, we used a horizon-scanning approach to assess the 40 emerging issues most affecting Myanmar's forests, including internal conflict, land-tenure insecurity, large-scale agricultural development, demise of state timber enterprises, shortfalls in government revenue and capacity, and opening of new deforestation frontiers with new roads, mines, and hydroelectric dams. Averting these threats will require, for example, overhauling governance models, building capacity, improving infrastructure- and energy-project planning, and reforming land-tenure and environmental-protection laws. Although challenges to conservation in Myanmar are daunting, the political transition offers an opportunity for conservationists and researchers to help shape a future that enhances Myanmar's social, economic, and environmental potential while learning and applying lessons from other countries. Our approach and results are relevant to other countries undergoing similar transitions.

Farmer social networks: The role of advice ties and organizational leadership in agroforestry adoption.

With the decline in public budgets for agricultural extension support, ties between members of farmer groups are becoming more important to facilitate information transfer about agroforestry. This paper examines the role of social network ties in predicting organizational leadership in an agroforestry-based farmer group. Using social network data derived from interviews with members of farming groups based in the Ayeyarwady Delta of Myanmar, we established a positive relationship between advice-seeking ties and organizational leadership. In other words, farmers who were highly sought for agroforestry advice were more likely to be elected as leaders of the farmer group. Results show the frequency of interactions through advice-seeking ties also had a positive influence on the probability of farmers holding leadership positions. We found a core-periphery structure for the advice networks, whereby farmer leaders were overrepresented at the network core. Interestingly, general members of the farmer group were also in the core of the core-periphery structure, suggesting that engaging with farmers without leadership roles can also effectively disseminate agroforestry information to peripheral farmers. We conclude that farmer groups are valuable in agroforestry adoption and persistence and further analyses of formal leadership structures are needed to support more transparent and accountable governance.