Association of COVID-19 With Major Arterial and Venous Thrombotic Diseases: A Population-Wide Cohort Study of 48 Million Adults in England and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) induces a prothrombotic state, but long-term effects of COVID-19 on incidence of vascular diseases are unclear. METHODS: We studied vascular diseases after COVID-19 diagnosis in population-wide anonymized linked English and Welsh electronic health records from January 1 to December 7, 2020. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios comparing the incidence of arterial thromboses and venous thromboembolic events (VTEs) after diagnosis of COVID-19 with the incidence in people without a COVID-19 diagnosis. We conducted subgroup analyses by COVID-19 severity, demographic characteristics, and previous history. RESULTS: Among 48 million adults, 125 985 were hospitalized and 1 319 789 were not hospitalized within 28 days of COVID-19 diagnosis. In England, there were 260 279 first arterial thromboses and 59 421 first VTEs during 41.6 million person-years of follow-up. Adjusted hazard ratios for first arterial thrombosis after COVID-19 diagnosis compared with no COVID-19 diagnosis declined from 21.7 (95% CI, 21.0-22.4) in week 1 after COVID-19 diagnosis to 1.34 (95% CI, 1.21-1.48) during weeks 27 to 49. Adjusted hazard ratios for first VTE after COVID-19 diagnosis declined from 33.2 (95% CI, 31.3-35.2) in week 1 to 1.80 (95% CI, 1.50-2.17) during weeks 27 to 49. Adjusted hazard ratios were higher, for longer after diagnosis, after hospitalized versus nonhospitalized COVID-19, among Black or Asian versus White people, and among people without versus with a previous event. The estimated whole-population increases in risk of arterial thromboses and VTEs 49 weeks after COVID-19 diagnosis were 0.5% and 0.25%, respectively, corresponding to 7200 and 3500 additional events, respectively, after 1.4 million COVID-19 diagnoses. CONCLUSIONS: High relative incidence of vascular events soon after COVID-19 diagnosis declines more rapidly for arterial thromboses than VTEs. However, incidence remains elevated up to 49 weeks after COVID-19 diagnosis. These results support policies to prevent severe COVID-19 by means of COVID-19 vaccines, early review after discharge, risk factor control, and use of secondary preventive agents in high-risk patients.

Antipsychotic polypharmacy and adverse drug reactions among adults in a London mental health service, 2008-2018.

BACKGROUND: Antipsychotic polypharmacy (APP) occurs commonly but it is unclear whether it is associated with an increased risk of adverse drug reactions (ADRs). Electronic health records (EHRs) offer an opportunity to examine APP using real-world data. In this study, we use EHR data to identify periods when patients were prescribed 2 + antipsychotics and compare these with periods of antipsychotic monotherapy. To determine the relationship between APP and subsequent instances of ADRs: QT interval prolongation, hyperprolactinaemia, and increased body weight [body mass index (BMI) ⩾ 25]. METHODS: We extracted anonymised EHR data. Patients aged 16 + receiving antipsychotic medication at Camden & Islington NHS Foundation Trust between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2018 were included. Multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression models were used to elucidate the relationship between APP and the subsequent presence of QT interval prolongation, hyperprolactinaemia, and/or increased BMI following a period of APP within 7, 30, or 180 days respectively. RESULTS: We identified 35 409 observations of antipsychotic prescribing among 13 391 patients. Compared with antipsychotic monotherapy, APP was associated with a subsequent increased risk of hyperprolactinaemia (adjusted odds ratio 2.46; 95% CI 1.87-3.24) and of registering a BMI > 25 (adjusted odds ratio 1.75; 95% CI 1.33-2.31) in the period following the APP prescribing. CONCLUSIONS: Our observations suggest that APP should be carefully managed with attention to hyperprolactinaemia and obesity.

Genetic copy number variants, cognition and psychosis: a meta-analysis and a family study.

The burden of large and rare copy number genetic variants (CNVs) as well as certain specific CNVs increase the risk of developing schizophrenia. Several cognitive measures are purported schizophrenia endophenotypes and may represent an intermediate point between genetics and the illness. This paper investigates the influence of CNVs on cognition. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature exploring the effect of CNV burden on general intelligence. We included ten primary studies with a total of 18,847 participants and found no evidence of association. In a new psychosis family study, we investigated the effects of CNVs on specific cognitive abilities. We examined the burden of large and rare CNVs (>200 kb, <1% MAF) as well as known schizophrenia-associated CNVs in patients with psychotic disorders, their unaffected relatives and controls (N = 3428) from the Psychosis Endophenotypes International Consortium (PEIC). The carriers of specific schizophrenia-associated CNVs showed poorer performance than non-carriers in immediate (P = 0.0036) and delayed (P = 0.0115) verbal recall. We found suggestive evidence that carriers of schizophrenia-associated CNVs had poorer block design performance (P = 0.0307). We do not find any association between CNV burden and cognition. Our findings show that the known high-risk CNVs are not only associated with schizophrenia and other neurodevelopmental disorders, but are also a contributing factor to impairment in cognitive domains such as memory and perceptual reasoning, and act as intermediate biomarkers of disease risk.

Childhood sexual abuse in patients with severe mental Illness: Demographic, clinical and functional correlates.

OBJECTIVE: To use data from electronic health records (EHRs) to describe the demographic, clinical and functional correlates of childhood sexual abuse (CSA) in patients with severe mental illness (SMI), and compare their clinical outcomes (admissions and receipt of antipsychotic medications) to those of patients with no recorded history of CSA. METHODS: We applied a string-matching technique to clinical text records of 7000 patients with SMI (non-organic psychotic disorders or bipolar disorder), identifying 619 (8.8%) patients with a recorded history of CSA. Data were extracted from both free-text and structured fields of patients' EHRs. RESULTS: Comorbid diagnoses of major depressive disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder and personality disorders were more prevalent in patients with CSA. Positive psychotic symptoms, depressed mood, self-harm, substance use and aggression were also more prevalent in this group, as were problems with relationships and living conditions. The odds of inpatient admissions were higher in patients with CSA than in those without (adjusted OR = 1.95, 95% CI: 1.64-2.33), and they were more likely to have spent more than 10 days per year as inpatients (adjusted OR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.07-1.62). Patients with CSA were more likely to be prescribed antipsychotic medications (adjusted OR = 2.48, 95% CI: 1.69-3.66) and be given over 75% of the maximum recommended daily dose (adjusted OR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.44-2.04). CONCLUSION: Data-driven approaches are a reliable, promising avenue for research on childhood trauma. Clinicians should be trained and skilled at identifying childhood adversity in patients with SMI, and addressing it as part of the care plan.

The effect of CYP2D6 variation on antipsychotic-induced hyperprolactinaemia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Hyperprolactinemia is a known adverse drug reaction to antipsychotic treatment. Antipsychotic blood levels are influenced by cytochrome P450 enzymes, primarily CYP2D6. Variation in CYP450 genes may affect the risk of antipsychotic-induced hyperprolactinemia. We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess whether CYP2D6 functional genetic variants are associated with antipsychotic-induced hyperprolactinemia. The systematic review identified 16 relevant papers, seven of which were suitable for the meta-analysis (n = 303 participants including 134 extreme metabolisers). Participants were classified into four phenotype groups as poor, intermediate, extensive, and ultra-rapid metabolisers. A random effects meta-analysis was used and Cohen's d calculated as the effect size for each primary study. We found no significant differences in prolactin levels between CYP2D6 metabolic groups. Current evidence does not support using CYP2D6 genotyping to reduce risk of antipsychotic-induced hyperprolactinemia. However, statistical power is limited. Future studies with larger samples and including a range of prolactin-elevating drugs are needed.

CNVs conferring risk of autism or schizophrenia affect cognition in controls.

In a small fraction of patients with schizophrenia or autism, alleles of copy-number variants (CNVs) in their genomes are probably the strongest factors contributing to the pathogenesis of the disease. These CNVs may provide an entry point for investigations into the mechanisms of brain function and dysfunction alike. They are not fully penetrant and offer an opportunity to study their effects separate from that of manifest disease. Here we show in an Icelandic sample that a few of the CNVs clearly alter fecundity (measured as the number of children by age 45). Furthermore, we use various tests of cognitive function to demonstrate that control subjects carrying the CNVs perform at a level that is between that of schizophrenia patients and population controls. The CNVs do not all affect the same cognitive domains, hence the cognitive deficits that drive or accompany the pathogenesis vary from one CNV to another. Controls carrying the chromosome 15q11.2 deletion between breakpoints 1 and 2 (15q11.2(BP1-BP2) deletion) have a history of dyslexia and dyscalculia, even after adjusting for IQ in the analysis, and the CNV only confers modest effects on other cognitive traits. The 15q11.2(BP1-BP2) deletion affects brain structure in a pattern consistent with both that observed during first-episode psychosis in schizophrenia and that of structural correlates in dyslexia.

Neurodevelopmental risk copy number variants in adults with intellectual disabilities and comorbid psychiatric disorders.

BACKGROUND: Copy number variants (CNVs) are established risk factors for neurodevelopmental disorders. To date the study of CNVs in psychiatric illness has focused on single disorder populations. The role of CNVs in individuals with intellectual disabilities and psychiatric comorbidities are less well characterised.AimsTo determine the type and frequency of CNVs in adults with intellectual disabilities and comorbid psychiatric disorders. METHOD: A chromosomal microarray analysis of 599 adults recruited from intellectual disabilities psychiatry services at three European sites. RESULTS: The yield of pathogenic CNVs was high - 13%. Focusing on established neurodevelopmental disorder risk loci we find a significantly higher frequency in individuals with intellectual disabilities and comorbid psychiatric disorder (10%) compared with healthy controls (1.2%, P<0.0001), schizophrenia (3.1%, P<0.0001) and intellectual disability/autism spectrum disorder (6.5%, P < 0.00084) populations. CONCLUSIONS: In the largest sample of adults with intellectual disabilities and comorbid psychiatric disorders to date, we find a high rate of pathogenic CNVs. This has clinical implications for the use of genetic investigations in intellectual disability psychiatry.Declaration of interestNone.

Use of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder polygenic risk scores to identify psychotic disorders.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing evidence for shared genetic susceptibility between schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. Although genetic variants only convey subtle increases in risk individually, their combination into a polygenic risk score constitutes a strong disease predictor.AimsTo investigate whether schizophrenia and bipolar disorder polygenic risk scores can distinguish people with broadly defined psychosis and their unaffected relatives from controls. METHOD: Using the latest Psychiatric Genomics Consortium data, we calculated schizophrenia and bipolar disorder polygenic risk scores for 1168 people with psychosis, 552 unaffected relatives and 1472 controls. RESULTS: Patients with broadly defined psychosis had dramatic increases in schizophrenia and bipolar polygenic risk scores, as did their relatives, albeit to a lesser degree. However, the accuracy of predictive models was modest. CONCLUSIONS: Although polygenic risk scores are not ready for clinical use, it is hoped that as they are refined they could help towards risk reduction advice and early interventions for psychosis.Declaration of interestR.M.M. has received honoraria for lectures from Janssen, Lundbeck, Lilly, Otsuka and Sunovian.

A polygenic risk score analysis of psychosis endophenotypes across brain functional, structural, and cognitive domains.

This large multi-center study investigates the relationships between genetic risk for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, and multi-modal endophenotypes for psychosis. The sample included 4,242 individuals; 1,087 patients with psychosis, 822 unaffected first-degree relatives of patients, and 2,333 controls. Endophenotypes included the P300 event-related potential (N = 515), lateral ventricular volume (N = 798), and the cognitive measures block design (N = 3,089), digit span (N = 1,437), and the Ray Auditory Verbal Learning Task (N = 2,406). Data were collected across 11 sites in Europe and Australia; all genotyping and genetic analyses were done at the same laboratory in the United Kingdom. We calculated polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder separately, and used linear regression to test whether polygenic scores influenced the endophenotypes. Results showed that higher polygenic scores for schizophrenia were associated with poorer performance on the block design task and explained 0.2% (p = 0.009) of the variance. Associations in the same direction were found for bipolar disorder scores, but this was not statistically significant at the 1% level (p = 0.02). The schizophrenia score explained 0.4% of variance in lateral ventricular volumes, the largest across all phenotypes examined, although this was not significant (p = 0.063). None of the remaining associations reached significance after correction for multiple testing (with alpha at 1%). These results indicate that common genetic variants associated with schizophrenia predict performance in spatial visualization, providing additional evidence that this measure is an endophenotype for the disorder with shared genetic risk variants. The use of endophenotypes such as this will help to characterize the effects of common genetic variation in psychosis.

Evaluation of shared genetic susceptibility loci between autoimmune diseases and schizophrenia based on genome-wide association studies.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies have documented higher than expected comorbidity (or, in some cases, inverse comorbidity) between schizophrenia and several autoimmune disorders. It remains unknown whether this comorbidity reflects shared genetic susceptibility loci. AIMS: The present study aimed to investigate whether verified genome wide significant variants of autoimmune disorders confer risk of schizophrenia, which could suggest a common genetic basis. METHODS: Seven hundred and fourteen genome wide significant risk variants of 25 autoimmune disorders were extracted from the NHGRI GWAS catalogue and examined for association to schizophrenia in the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium schizophrenia GWAS samples (36,989 cases and 113,075 controls). RESULTS: Two independent loci at 4q24 and 6p21.32-33 originally identified from GWAS of autoimmune diseases were found genome wide associated with schizophrenia (1.7 × 10-8 ≥ p ≥ 4.0 × 10-21). While these observations confirm the existence of shared genetic susceptibility loci between schizophrenia and autoimmune diseases, the findings did not show a significant enrichment. CONCLUSION: The findings do not support a genetic overlap in common SNPs between autoimmune diseases and schizophrenia that in part could explain the observed comorbidity from epidemiological studies.

Sequence analysis of 17 NRXN1 deletions.

BACKGROUND: Genome instability plays fundamental roles in human evolution and phenotypic variation within our population. This instability leads to genomic rearrangements that are involved in a wide variety of human disorders, including congenital and neurodevelopmental disorders, and cancers. Insight into the molecular mechanisms governing such genomic rearrangements may increase our understanding of disease pathology and evolutionary processes. Here we analyse 17 carriers of non-recurrent deletions in the NRXN1 gene, which have been associated with neurodevelopmental disorders, e.g. schizophrenia, autism and epilepsies. METHODS: 17 non-recurrent NRXN1 deletions identified by GWA were sequenced to map the breakpoints of each. Meme … etc. was used to identify shared patterns between the deletions and compare these were previously studies on non-recurrent deletions. RESULTS: We discovered two novel sequence motifs shared between all 17 NRXN1 deletions and a significantly higher AT nucleotide content at the breakpoints, compared to the overall nucleotide content on chromosome 2. We found different alteration of sequence at the breakpoint; small insertions and duplications giving rise to short microhomology sequences. CONCLUSIONS: No single mechanism seems to be implicated in the deletion events, but the results suggest that NHEJ, FoSTeS or MMBIR is implicated. The two novel sequence motifs together with a high AT content in all in NRXN1 deletions may lead to increased instability leading to a increase susceptibility to a single stranded structures. This favours potentially repaired by NHEJ mechanism of double strand breaks or may leading to replication errors. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Schizophrenia polygenic risk scores, clinical variables and genetic pathways as predictors of phenotypic traits of bipolar I disorder.

AIM: We investigated the predictive value of polygenic risk scores (PRS) derived from the schizophrenia GWAS (Trubetskoy et al., 2022) (SCZ3) for phenotypic traits of bipolar disorder type-I (BP-I) in 1878 BP-I cases and 2751 controls from Romania and UK. METHODS: We used PRSice-v2.3.3 and PRS-CS for computing SCZ3-PRS for testing the predictive power of SCZ3-PRS alone and in combination with clinical variables for several BP-I subphenotypes and for pathway analysis. Non-linear predictive models were also used. RESULTS: SCZ3-PRS significantly predicted psychosis, incongruent and congruent psychosis, general age-of-onset (AO) of BP-I, AO-depression, AO-Mania, rapid cycling in univariate regressions. A negative correlation between the number of depressive episodes and psychosis, mainly incongruent and an inverse relationship between increased SCZ3-SNP loading and BP-I-rapid cycling were observed. In random forest models comparing the predictive power of SCZ3-PRS alone and in combination with nine clinical variables, the best predictions were provided by combinations of SCZ3-PRS-CS and clinical variables closely followed by models containing only clinical variables. SCZ3-PRS performed worst. Twenty-two significant pathways underlying psychosis were identified. LIMITATIONS: The combined RO-UK sample had a certain degree of heterogeneity of the BP-I severity: only the RO sample and partially the UK sample included hospitalized BP-I cases. The hospitalization is an indicator of illness severity. Not all UK subjects had complete subphenotype information. CONCLUSION: Our study shows that the SCZ3-PRS have a modest clinical value for predicting phenotypic traits of BP-I. For clinical use their best performance is in combination with clinical variables.

Ethnicity data resource in population-wide health records: completeness, coverage and granularity of diversity.

Intersectional social determinants including ethnicity are vital in health research. We curated a population-wide data resource of self-identified ethnicity data from over 60 million individuals in England primary care, linking it to hospital records. We assessed ethnicity data in terms of completeness, consistency, and granularity and found one in ten individuals do not have ethnicity information recorded in primary care. By linking to hospital records, ethnicity data were completed for 94% of individuals. By reconciling SNOMED-CT concepts and census-level categories into a consistent hierarchy, we organised more than 250 ethnicity sub-groups including and beyond "White", "Black", "Asian", "Mixed" and "Other, and found them to be distributed in proportions similar to the general population. This large observational dataset presents an algorithmic hierarchy to represent self-identified ethnicity data collected across heterogeneous healthcare settings. Accurate and easily accessible ethnicity data can lead to a better understanding of population diversity, which is important to address disparities and influence policy recommendations that can translate into better, fairer health for all.

Multiple psychiatric polygenic risk scores predict associations between childhood adversity and bipolar disorder.

BACKGROUND: It remains unclear how adverse childhood experiences (ACE) and increased genetic risk for bipolar disorder (BD) interact to influence BD symptom outcomes. Here we calculated multiple psychiatric polygenic risk scores (PRS) and used the measures of ACE to understand these gene-environment interactions. METHOD: 885 BD subjects were included for analyses. BD, ADHD, MDD and SCZ PRSs were calculated using the PRS-CS-auto method. ACEs were evaluated using the Children Life Event Questionnaire (CLEQ). Participants were divided into groups based on the presence of ACE and the total number of ACEs. The associations between total ACE number, PRSs and their interactions were evaluated using multiple linear and logistic regressions. Secondary analyses were performed to evaluate the influence of ACE and PRS on sub-phenotypes of BD. RESULTS: The number of ACEs increased with the ADHD PRS. BD participants who had ACEs showed an earlier age of BD onset and higher odds of having rapid cycling. Increased BD PRS was associated with increased odds of developing psychotic symptoms. Higher ADHD PRS was associated with increased odds of having rapid cycling. No prediction effect was observed from MDD and SCZ PRS. And, we found no significant interaction between ACE numbers and any of the PRSs in predicting any selected BD sub-phenotypes. LIMITATIONS: The study was limited by sample size, ACE definition, and cross-sectional data collection method. CONCLUSIONS: The findings consolidate the importance of considering multiple psychiatric PRSs in predicting symptom outcomes among BD patients.

Prediction of disease comorbidity using explainable artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques: A systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: Disease comorbidity is a major challenge in healthcare affecting the patient's quality of life and costs. AI-based prediction of comorbidities can overcome this issue by improving precision medicine and providing holistic care. The objective of this systematic literature review was to identify and summarise existing machine learning (ML) methods for comorbidity prediction and evaluate the interpretability and explainability of the models. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) framework was used to identify articles in three databases: Ovid Medline, Web of Science and PubMed. The literature search covered a broad range of terms for the prediction of disease comorbidity and ML, including traditional predictive modelling. RESULTS: Of 829 unique articles, 58 full-text papers were assessed for eligibility. A final set of 22 articles with 61 ML models was included in this review. Of the identified ML models, 33 models achieved relatively high accuracy (80-95%) and AUC (0.80-0.89). Overall, 72% of studies had high or unclear concerns regarding the risk of bias. DISCUSSION: This systematic review is the first to examine the use of ML and explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods for comorbidity prediction. The chosen studies focused on a limited scope of comorbidities ranging from 1 to 34 (mean = 6), and no novel comorbidities were found due to limited phenotypic and genetic data. The lack of standard evaluation for XAI hinders fair comparisons. CONCLUSION: A broad range of ML methods has been used to predict the comorbidities of various disorders. With further development of explainable ML capacity in the field of comorbidity prediction, there is a significant possibility of identifying unmet health needs by highlighting comorbidities in patient groups that were not previously recognised to be at risk for particular comorbidities.

Genome-wide association study of antisocial personality disorder diagnostic criteria provides evidence for shared risk factors across disorders.

INTRODUCTION: While progress has been made in determining the genetic basis of antisocial behaviour, little progress has been made for antisocial personality disorder (ASPD), a condition that often co-occurs with other psychiatric conditions including substance use disorders, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and anxiety disorders. This study aims to improve the understanding of the genetic risk for ASPD and its relationship with other disorders and traits. METHODS: We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of the number of ASPD diagnostic criteria data from 3217 alcohol-dependent participants recruited in the UK (UCL, N = 644) and the USA (Yale-Penn, N = 2573). RESULTS: We identified rs9806493, a chromosome 15 variant, that showed a genome-wide significant association ( Z -score = -5.501, P = 3.77 × 10 -8 ) with ASPD criteria. rs9806493 is an eQTL for SLCO3A1 (Solute Carrier Organic Anion Transporter Family Member 3A1), a ubiquitously expressed gene with strong expression in brain regions that include the anterior cingulate and frontal cortices. Polygenic risk score analysis identified positive correlations between ASPD and smoking, ADHD, depression traits, and posttraumatic stress disorder. Negative correlations were observed between ASPD PRS and alcohol intake frequency, reproductive traits, and level of educational attainment. CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence for an association between ASPD risk and SLCO3A1 and provides insight into the genetic architecture and pleiotropic associations of ASPD.

Identifying subtypes of heart failure from three electronic health record sources with machine learning: an external, prognostic, and genetic validation study.

BACKGROUND: Machine learning has been used to analyse heart failure subtypes, but not across large, distinct, population-based datasets, across the whole spectrum of causes and presentations, or with clinical and non-clinical validation by different machine learning methods. Using our published framework, we aimed to discover heart failure subtypes and validate them upon population representative data. METHODS: In this external, prognostic, and genetic validation study we analysed individuals aged 30 years or older with incident heart failure from two population-based databases in the UK (Clinical Practice Research Datalink [CPRD] and The Health Improvement Network [THIN]) from 1998 to 2018. Pre-heart failure and post-heart failure factors (n=645) included demographic information, history, examination, blood laboratory values, and medications. We identified subtypes using four unsupervised machine learning methods (K-means, hierarchical, K-Medoids, and mixture model clustering) with 87 of 645 factors in each dataset. We evaluated subtypes for (1) external validity (across datasets); (2) prognostic validity (predictive accuracy for 1-year mortality); and (3) genetic validity (UK Biobank), association with polygenic risk score (PRS) for heart failure-related traits (n=11), and single nucleotide polymorphisms (n=12). FINDINGS: We included 188 800, 124 262, and 9573 individuals with incident heart failure from CPRD, THIN, and UK Biobank, respectively, between Jan 1, 1998, and Jan 1, 2018. After identifying five clusters, we labelled heart failure subtypes as (1) early onset, (2) late onset, (3) atrial fibrillation related, (4) metabolic, and (5) cardiometabolic. In the external validity analysis, subtypes were similar across datasets (c-statistics: THIN model in CPRD ranged from 0·79 [subtype 3] to 0·94 [subtype 1], and CPRD model in THIN ranged from 0·79 [subtype 1] to 0·92 [subtypes 2 and 5]). In the prognostic validity analysis, 1-year all-cause mortality after heart failure diagnosis (subtype 1 0·20 [95% CI 0·14-0·25], subtype 2 0·46 [0·43-0·49], subtype 3 0·61 [0·57-0·64], subtype 4 0·11 [0·07-0·16], and subtype 5 0·37 [0·32-0·41]) differed across subtypes in CPRD and THIN data, as did risk of non-fatal cardiovascular diseases and all-cause hospitalisation. In the genetic validity analysis the atrial fibrillation-related subtype showed associations with the related PRS. Late onset and cardiometabolic subtypes were the most similar and strongly associated with PRS for hypertension, myocardial infarction, and obesity (p<0·0009). We developed a prototype app for routine clinical use, which could enable evaluation of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. INTERPRETATION: Across four methods and three datasets, including genetic data, in the largest study of incident heart failure to date, we identified five machine learning-informed subtypes, which might inform aetiological research, clinical risk prediction, and the design of heart failure trials. FUNDING: European Union Innovative Medicines Initiative-2.

Using national electronic health records for pandemic preparedness: validation of a parsimonious model for predicting excess deaths among those with COVID-19-a data-driven retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To use national, pre- and post-pandemic electronic health records (EHR) to develop and validate a scenario-based model incorporating baseline mortality risk, infection rate (IR) and relative risk (RR) of death for prediction of excess deaths. DESIGN: An EHR-based, retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Linked EHR in Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD); and linked EHR and COVID-19 data in England provided in NHS Digital Trusted Research Environment (TRE). PARTICIPANTS: In the development (CPRD) and validation (TRE) cohorts, we included 3.8 million and 35.1 million individuals aged ≥30 years, respectively. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: One-year all-cause excess deaths related to COVID-19 from March 2020 to March 2021. RESULTS: From 1 March 2020 to 1 March 2021, there were 127,020 observed excess deaths. Observed RR was 4.34% (95% CI, 4.31-4.38) and IR was 6.27% (95% CI, 6.26-6.28). In the validation cohort, predicted one-year excess deaths were 100,338 compared with the observed 127,020 deaths with a ratio of predicted to observed excess deaths of 0.79. CONCLUSIONS: We show that a simple, parsimonious model incorporating baseline mortality risk, one-year IR and RR of the pandemic can be used for scenario-based prediction of excess deaths in the early stages of a pandemic. Our analyses show that EHR could inform pandemic planning and surveillance, despite limited use in emergency preparedness to date. Although infection dynamics are important in the prediction of mortality, future models should take greater account of underlying conditions.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cardiovascular disease prevention and management.

How the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected prevention and management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is not fully understood. In this study, we used medication data as a proxy for CVD management using routinely collected, de-identified, individual-level data comprising 1.32 billion records of community-dispensed CVD medications from England, Scotland and Wales between April 2018 and July 2021. Here we describe monthly counts of prevalent and incident medications dispensed, as well as percentage changes compared to the previous year, for several CVD-related indications, focusing on hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes. We observed a decline in the dispensing of antihypertensive medications between March 2020 and July 2021, with 491,306 fewer individuals initiating treatment than expected. This decline was predicted to result in 13,662 additional CVD events, including 2,281 cases of myocardial infarction and 3,474 cases of stroke, should individuals remain untreated over their lifecourse. Incident use of lipid-lowering medications decreased by 16,744 patients per month during the first half of 2021 as compared to 2019. By contrast, incident use of medications to treat type 2 diabetes mellitus, other than insulin, increased by approximately 623 patients per month for the same time period. In light of these results, methods to identify and treat individuals who have missed treatment for CVD risk factors and remain undiagnosed are urgently required to avoid large numbers of excess future CVD events, an indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Psychosis Endophenotypes: A Gene-Set-Specific Polygenic Risk Score Analysis.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Endophenotypes can help to bridge the gap between psychosis and its genetic predispositions, but their underlying mechanisms remain largely unknown. This study aims to identify biological mechanisms that are relevant to the endophenotypes for psychosis, by partitioning polygenic risk scores into specific gene sets and testing their associations with endophenotypes. STUDY DESIGN: We computed polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder restricted to brain-related gene sets retrieved from public databases and previous publications. Three hundred and seventy-eight gene-set-specific polygenic risk scores were generated for 4506 participants. Seven endophenotypes were also measured in the sample. Linear mixed-effects models were fitted to test associations between each endophenotype and each gene-set-specific polygenic risk score. STUDY RESULTS: After correction for multiple testing, we found that a reduced P300 amplitude was associated with a higher schizophrenia polygenic risk score of the forebrain regionalization gene set (mean difference per SD increase in the polygenic risk score: -1.15 µV; 95% CI: -1.70 to -0.59 µV; P = 6 × 10-5). The schizophrenia polygenic risk score of forebrain regionalization also explained more variance of the P300 amplitude (R2 = 0.032) than other polygenic risk scores, including the genome-wide polygenic risk scores. CONCLUSIONS: Our finding on reduced P300 amplitudes suggests that certain genetic variants alter early brain development thereby increasing schizophrenia risk years later. Gene-set-specific polygenic risk scores are a useful tool to elucidate biological mechanisms of psychosis and endophenotypes, offering leads for experimental validation in cellular and animal models.