Spatial clusters of human and livestock anthrax define high-risk areas requiring intervention in Lao Cai Province, Vietnam 1991-2022.

Anthrax, a widespread zoonosis in low and middle-income countries with low disease awareness and insufficient livestock vaccination coverage, has been known in Lao Cai Province in northern Vietnam for years before its apparent absence in 2009, which requires investigation as this infection is frequently reported from neighbouring provinces and countries. We aimed to describe the seasonal patterns of anthrax (1991-2008), compare livestock anthrax vaccine coverage to disease occurrence (1991- 2022), and delineate the high-risk areas to inform local disease surveillance in the province. We illustrated the seasonal pattern of anthrax and provided a comparison between livestock vaccine coverage and disease occurrence by purely spatial SaTScan (Poisson model, 25% population at risk) to detect spatial clusters of human and livestock anthrax using population derived from zonal statistics routines. The number of cases, crude cumulative incidence, and spatial clusters of human and livestock anthrax were mapped in QGIS. Results indicate peak anthrax incidence from May to October. Buffalo, domestic cattle, and horses accounted for 75% of total animal cases. Horse anthrax was more common in Lao Cai than in its neighbours and often occurred in years with human mortality. Vaccination covered less than 30% of the livestock population. We found an apparent pattern where anthrax was controlled from 1998-2003 with higher vaccine coverage (>20%) and identified spatial clusters of human and livestock anthrax in Muong Khuong, Bao Thang, and Bac Ha districts of Lao Cai. The local public health and veterinary agencies are recommended to revisit the high-risk areas and communicate with neighbouring provinces for a regional approach to anthrax surveillance and control.

Spatial analysis of human and livestock anthrax in Lai Chau province, Vietnam (2004-2021).

Anthrax is reported globally with varying disease intensity and seasonality among countries. In Vietnam, anthrax epidemiology and ecology remain understudied. We used historical data of human and livestock anthrax from 2004 to 2021 in Lai Chau province, to identify spatial clusters of human and livestock anthrax, describe epidemiological characteristics, and compare livestock anthrax vaccine coverage to human and livestock disease incidence. Local Moran's I (LISA) using spatial Bayes smoothed commune-level cumulative incidence (per 10,000) for the study period, epidemiological descriptive statistics, livestock vaccine coverage data, and annual incidence rates (per 10,000) at provincial level were used. LISA identified a human anthrax hotspot (high-high) in the southeast which did not overlap spatially with livestock anthrax hotspots in southeastern and northeastern communes. Most human cases were male, aged 15-59 years, handled sick animals, and/or consumed contaminated meat. Almost all cases were reported by grassroot health facilities with a delay of 6.3 days between exposure and case notification to the national surveillance system. 80 % of human cases were reported from June-October. The increase in disease incidence occurred shortly after livestock anthrax vaccine coverage decreased. This study informs vaccination strategy and targeted surveillance and control measures in newly identified high-risk areas and seasons of anthrax.