Effects of ignoring survey design information for data reuse.

Data are currently being used, and reused, in ecological research at an unprecedented rate. To ensure appropriate reuse however, we need to ask the question: "Are aggregated databases currently providing the right information to enable effective and unbiased reuse?" We investigate this question, with a focus on designs that purposefully favor the selection of sampling locations (upweighting the probability of selection of some locations). These designs are common and examples are those designs that have uneven inclusion probabilities or are stratified. We perform a simulation experiment by creating data sets with progressively more uneven inclusion probabilities and examine the resulting estimates of the average number of individuals per unit area (density). The effect of ignoring the survey design can be profound, with biases of up to 250% in density estimates when naive analytical methods are used. This density estimation bias is not reduced by adding more data. Fortunately, the estimation bias can be mitigated by using an appropriate estimator or an appropriate model that incorporates the design information. These are only available however, when essential information about the survey design is available: the sample location selection process (e.g., inclusion probabilities), and/or covariates used in their specification. The results suggest that such information must be stored and served with the data to support meaningful inference and data reuse.

Changes in Brain Monoamines Underlie Behavioural Disruptions after Zebrafish Diet Exposure to Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons Environmental Mixtures.

Zebrafish were exposed through diet to two environmentally relevant polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) mixtures of contrasted compositions, one of pyrolytic (PY) origin and one from light crude oil (LO). Monoamine concentrations were quantified in the brains of the fish after six month of exposure. A significant decrease in noradrenaline (NA) was observed in fish exposed to both mixtures, while a decrease in serotonin (5HT) and dopamine (DA) was observed only in LO-exposed fish. A decrease in metabolites of 5HT and DA was observed in fish exposed to both mixtures. Several behavioural disruptions were observed that depended on mixtures, and parallels were made with changes in monoamine concentrations. Indeed, we observed an increase in anxiety in fish exposed to both mixtures, which could be related to the decrease in 5HT and/or NA, while disruptions of daily activity rhythms were observed in LO fish, which could be related to the decrease in DA. Taken together, these results showed that (i) chronic exposures to PAHs mixtures disrupted brain monoamine contents, which could underlie behavioural disruptions, and that (ii) the biological responses depended on mixture compositions.

Statistical ecology comes of age.

The desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1-4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data.

Exploring the abundance-occupancy relationships for the Georges Bank finfish and shellfish community from 1963 to 2006.

Abundance-occupancy (A-O) patterns were explored temporally and spatially for the Georges Bank finfish and shellfish community to evaluate long-term trends in the assemblage structure and to identify anthropogenic and environmental drivers impacting the ecosystem. Analyses were conducted for 32 species representing the assemblage from 1963 to 2006 using data from the National Marine Fisheries Service's annual autumn bottom trawl survey. For individual species, occupancy was considered the proportion of stations with at least one individual present, and abundance was estimated as the mean annual number of fish captured per station. Intraspecific relationships were estimated to provide information on utilization of space by a species. Multispecies interspecific relationships over all species for each year were fitted to estimate assemblage structural changes over the time series. Results indicated that the slopes and strengths of interspecific A-O relationships significantly declined over the duration of the time series, and this decline was significantly related to groundfish landings. However, the rate of decline was not constant, and a breakpoint analysis of interspecific slopes indicated that 1973 was a period of "state" change. More importantly a jackknife-after-bootstrap analysis indicated that the early 1970s followed by the 1990s were periods of higher than average probability of significant break points. While it is difficult to determine causation, the results suggest that long-term impacts such as habitat fragmentation may be influencing the species assemblage structure in the Georges Bank ecosystem. Further, we used slopes from the intraspecific A-O relationships to derive a measure of a species' potential risk of hyperstability, where catch rates remain high as the population declines. Combining this measure of the risk of hyperstability with resilience to exploitation provided a means to rank species risk of decline due to both demographics and the interaction of the behaviors of the species and fishing fleets.

Methods for identifying and interpreting sex-linked SNP markers and carrying out sex assignment: application to thornback ray (Raja clavata).

Sex-determining modes remain unknown in numerous species, notably in fishes, in which a variety of modalities have been reported. Additionally, noninvasive individual sexing is problematic for species without external sex attributes or for early life stages, requiring cytogenetic or molecular analyses when sex chromosomes or sex-linked markers have been characterized. Genomics now provide a means to achieve this. Here, we review common sex-determination systems and corresponding statistical methods for identifying sex-linked genetic markers and their use for sex assignment, focusing on single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers derived from reduced representation sequencing methods. We demonstrate the dependence of expected sex assignment error on the number of sex-linked SNPs and minor allele frequency. The application of three methods was made here: (a) identification of heterozygote excess in one sex, (b) FST outlier analysis between the two sexes and (c) neuronal net modelling. These methods were applied to a large SNP data set (4604 SNPs) for 1680 thornback rays (Raja clavata). Using method (a), nineteen putative sex-linked SNPs were identified. Comparison with the reference genome of a related species (Amblyraja radiata) indicated that all 19 SNPs are probably located on the same chromosome. These results suggest that thornback ray has a XX/XY sex-determination system. Method (b) identified eight SNPs probably located on different chromosomes. Method (a) led to the lowest sex assignment error among the three methods (4.2% error for females and 3.7% for males).

Estimating effective population size using RADseq: Effects of SNP selection and sample size.

Effective population size (Ne ) is a key parameter of population genetics. However, N e remains challenging to estimate for natural populations as several factors are likely to bias estimates. These factors include sampling design, sequencing method, and data filtering. One issue inherent to the restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) protocol is missing data and SNP selection criteria (e.g., minimum minor allele frequency, number of SNPs). To evaluate the potential impact of SNP selection criteria on Ne estimates (Linkage Disequilibrium method) we used RADseq data for a nonmodel species, the thornback ray. In this data set, the inbreeding coefficient F IS was positively correlated with the amount of missing data, implying data were missing nonrandomly. The precision of Ne estimates decreased with the number of SNPs. Mean Ne estimates (averaged across 50 random data sets with2000 SNPs) ranged between 237 and 1784. Increasing the percentage of missing data from 25% to 50% increased Ne estimates between 82% and 120%, while increasing the minor allele frequency (MAF) threshold from 0.01 to 0.1 decreased estimates between 71% and 75%. Considering these effects is important when interpreting RADseq data-derived estimates of effective population size in empirical studies.

Functional group based marine ecosystem assessment for the Bay of Biscay via elasticity analysis.

The transitory and long-term elasticities of the Bay of Biscay ecosystem to density-independent and density-dependent influences were estimated within a state space model that accounted for both process and observation uncertainties. A functional group based model for the Bay of Biscay fish ecosystem was fit to time series obtained from scientific survey and commercial catch and effort data. The observation model parameters correspond to the unknown catchabilities and observation error variances that vary across the commercial fisheries and fishery-independent scientific surveys. The process model used a Gompertz form of density dependence, which is commonly used for the analysis of multivariate ecological time series, with unknown time-varying fishing mortalities. Elasticity analysis showed that the process model parameters are directly interpretable in terms of one-year look-ahead prediction elasticities, which measure the proportional response of a functional group in the next year given a proportional change to a variable or parameter in the current year. The density dependent parameters were also shown to define the elasticities of the long term means or quantiles of the functional groups to changes in fishing pressure. Evidence for the importance of indirect effects, mediated by density dependence, in determining the ecosystem response of the Bay of Biscay to changes in fishing pressure is presented. The state space model performed favourably in an assessment of model adequacy that compared observations of catch per unit effort against cross-validation predictive densities blocked by year.

Extinction Debt and Colonizer Credit on a Habitat Perturbed Fishing Bank.

Temporal changes in occupancy of the Georges Bank (NE USA) fish and invertebrate community were examined and interpreted in the context of systems ecological theory of extinction debt (EDT). EDT posits that in a closed system with a mix of competitor and colonizer species and experiencing habitat fragmentation and loss, the competitor species will show a gradual decline in fitness (occupancy) eventually leading to their extinction (extirpation) over multiple generations. A corollary of this is a colonizer credit, where colonizer species occupancy may increase with fragmentation because the disturbance gives that life history a transient relative competitive advantage. We found that competitor species occupancy decreased in time concomitant with an increase in occupancy of colonizer species and this may be related to habitat fragmentation or loss owing to industrialized bottom trawl fishing. Mean species richness increased over time which suggests less specialization (decreased dominance) of the assemblage that may result from habitat homogenization. These analyses also showed that when abundance of species was decreased by fishing but eventually returned to previous levels, on average it had a lower occupancy than earlier in the series which could increase their vulnerability to depletion by fishing. Changing occupancy and diversity patterns of the community over time is consistent with EDT which can be exacerbated by direct impacts of fishery removals as well as climate change impacts on the fish community assemblage.

Interannual variability of fisheries economic returns and energy ratios is mostly explained by gear type.

According to portfolio theory applied to fisheries management, economic returns are stabilised by harvesting in a portfolio stocks of species whose returns are negatively correlated and for which the portfolio economic return variance is smaller than the sum of stock specific return variances. Also, variability is expected to decrease with portfolio width. Using a range of indicators, these predictions were tested for the French fishing fleets in the Bay of Biscay (Northeast Atlantic) during the period 2001-2009. For this, vessels were grouped into eight fishing fleets based on the gears used and exploited species were grouped into five functional groups. The portfolio width of fleets ranged from 1-3 functional groups, or 4-19 species. Economic fleet returns (sale revenues minus fishing costs) varied strongly between years; the interannual variability was independent of portfolio width (species or functional groups). Energy ratio expressed by the ratio between fuel energy used for fishing and energy contained in landings varied from 0.3 for purse seines to 9.7 for trawlers using bottom trawls alone or in combination with pelagic trawls independent of portfolio width. Interannual variability in total sale revenues was larger than the sum of species specific sales revenue variability, except for fleets using hooks and pelagic trawlers; it increased with the number of species exploited. In conclusion, the interannual variability of economic returns or energy ratios of French fisheries in the Bay of Biscay did not decrease with the number of species or functional groups exploited, though it varied between fleets.