The role of intellectual property rights on access to medicines in the WHO African region: 25 years after the TRIPS agreement.

BACKGROUND: It is now 25 years since the adoption of the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) and the same concerns raised during its negotiations such as high prices of medicines, market exclusivity and delayed market entry for generics remain relevant as highlighted recently by the Ebola and COVID-19 pandemics. The World Health Organization's (WHO) mandate to work on the interface between intellectual property, innovation and access to medicine has been continually reinforced and extended to include providing support to countries on the implementation of TRIPS flexibilities in collaboration with stakeholders. This study analyses the role of intellectual property on access to medicines in the African Region. METHODS: We analyze patent data from the African Regional Intellectual Property Organization (ARIPO) and Organisation Africaine de la Propriété Intellectuelle (OAPI) to provide a situational analysis of patenting activity and trends. We also review legislation to assess how TRIPS flexibilities are implemented in countries. RESULTS: Patenting was low for African countries. Only South Africa and Cameroon appeared in the list of top ten originator countries for ARIPO and OAPI respectively. Main diseases covered by African patents were HIV/AIDS, cardiovascular diseases, cancers and tumors. Majority countries have legislation allowing for compulsory licensing and parallel importation of medicines, while the least legislated flexibilities were explicit exemption of pharmaceutical products from patentable subject matter, new or second use of patented pharmaceutical products, imposition of limits to patent term extension and test data protection. Thirty-nine countries have applied TRIPS flexibilities, with the most common being compulsory licensing and least developed country transition provisions. CONCLUSIONS: Opportunities exist for WHO to work with ARIPO and OAPI to support countries in reviewing their legislation to be more responsive to public health needs.

Implementation research approaches to promoting universal health coverage in Africa: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Implementation research has emerged as part of evidence-based decision-making efforts to plug current gaps in the translation of research evidence into health policy and practice. While there has been a growing number of initiatives promoting the uptake of implementation research in Africa, its role and effectiveness remain unclear, particularly in the context of universal health coverage (UHC). Hence, this scoping review aimed to identify and characterise the use of implementation research initiatives for assessing UHC-related interventions or programmes in Africa. METHODS: The review protocol was developed based on the methodological framework proposed by Arksey and O'Malley, as enhanced by the Joanna Briggs Institute. The review is reported in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR). MEDLINE, Scopus and the Cochrane Library were searched. The search also included a hand search of relevant grey literature and reference lists. Literature sources involving the application of implementation research in the context of UHC in Africa were eligible for inclusion. RESULTS: The database search yielded 2153 records. We identified 12 additional records from hand search of reference lists. After the removal of duplicates, we had 2051 unique records, of which 26 studies were included in the review. Implementation research was used within ten distinct UHC-related contexts, including HIV; maternal and child health; voluntary male medical circumcision; healthcare financing; immunisation; healthcare data quality; malaria diagnosis; primary healthcare quality improvement; surgery and typhoid fever control. The consolidated framework for implementation research (CFIR) was the most frequently used framework. Qualitative and mixed-methods study designs were the commonest methods used. Implementation research was mostly used to guide post-implementation evaluation of health programmes and the contextualisation of findings to improve future implementation outcomes. The most commonly reported contextual facilitators were political support, funding, sustained collaboration and effective programme leadership. Reported barriers included inadequate human and other resources; lack of incentives; perception of implementation as additional work burden; and socio-cultural barriers. CONCLUSIONS: This review demonstrates that implementation research can be used to achieve UHC-related outcomes in Africa. It has identified important facilitators and barriers to the use of implementation research for promoting UHC in the region.

A review of policies and programmes for human organ and tissue donations and transplantations, WHO African Region.

Several resolutions, endorsed by the World Health Assembly and the United Nations General Assembly, articulate the need to improve the availability, quality and safety of organ and tissue donation and transplantation, as well as to prevent and combat trafficking in human organs. Here we assessed the implementation of these resolutions pertaining to organ and tissue donations and transplantations by sending out a questionnaire to all 47 countries in the World Health Organization African Region. From 33 countries that provided data, we identified several obstacles and challenges. Compared to other regions, there are very limited data on organ donation and transplantation. Most countries are lacking legal and regulatory frameworks, since they did not yet establish a specific or comprehensive legislation covering donation and transplantation of human organs and tissues. Countries also have a poor national capacity to perform organ and tissue transplantations and the organization and management of national programmes are weak. Funding, both from domestic and external sources, is insufficient to implement effective transplantations programmes and patients have inadequate financial protection. To address these challenges, we propose that countries and partners should develop and implement policies, strategies, plans and regulatory frameworks for all aspects of organ and tissue donations and transplantations, including fighting against organ trafficking and transplant tourism. Where donation and transplantation programmes exist, stakeholders should develop the skills of human resources, adopt technical standards and quality management procedures to improve donation and transplantation of human organs and tissues.

De nombreuses résolutions approuvées par l'Assemblée mondiale de la Santé et l'Assemblée générale des Nations Unies ont souligné le besoin d'améliorer la disponibilité, la qualité et la sécurité des dons et de transplantations d'organes et de tissus humains, de même que celui d'assurer la prévention et la lutte contre le trafic d'organes. Dans ce document, nous avons étudié la mise en œuvre de ces résolutions relatives aux dons et transplantations d'organes et de tissus, par le biais d'un questionnaire envoyé aux 47 pays appartenant à la région Afrique de l'Organisation mondiale de la Santé. Nous avons identifié de nombreux obstacles et défis dans les 33 pays qui nous ont transmis des données. Par rapport à d'autres régions, il existe très peu d'informations à ce propos. La plupart des pays ne possèdent pas de cadres juridiques et réglementaires car ils n'ont pas encore établi de législation spécifique ou exhaustive couvrant les dons et transplantations d'organes et de tissus. Certains manquent également de moyens au niveau national pour réaliser des greffes d'organes et de tissus, tandis que leur organisation et leur gestion des programmes nationaux sont inadaptées. Tant les fonds provenant de l'intérieur que ceux fournis par l'extérieur ne permettent pas d'instaurer des programmes de transplantation efficaces. Enfin, les patients ne bénéficient pas d'une protection financière suffisante. Afin de pouvoir relever ces défis, nous proposons que ces pays et leurs partenaires développent et appliquent des politiques, stratégies, projets et règles pour tous les aspects liés aux dons et transplantations d'organes et de tissus, y compris la lutte contre le trafic d'organes et le tourisme de la transplantation. Et là où des programmes de dons et de transplantations existent, les intervenants devraient acquérir des compétences en ressources humaines, mais aussi adopter des normes techniques et des procédures de gestion de la qualité afin d'optimiser les dons et transplantations d'organes et de tissus.

Diversas resoluciones que la Asamblea Mundial de la Salud y la Asamblea General de las Naciones Unidas aprobaron articulan la necesidad de mejorar la disponibilidad, la calidad y la seguridad de la donación y el trasplante de tejidos y órganos, así como de prevenir y combatir el tráfico de órganos humanos. En el presente documento se evalúa la implementación de estas resoluciones relacionadas con la donación y el trasplante de tejidos y órganos por medio del envío de un cuestionario a los 47 países de la Región de África de la Organización Mundial de la Salud. De los 33 países que suministraron los datos, se identificaron varios obstáculos y desafíos. En comparación con otras regiones, existen muy pocos datos sobre la donación y el trasplante de órganos. La mayoría de los países carecen de marcos normativos y legales, ya que todavía no han establecido una legislación específica o integral que aborde la donación y el trasplante de tejidos y órganos humanos. Los países también tienen una capacidad nacional deficiente para realizar los trasplantes de tejidos y órganos, además de que la organización y la gestión de los programas nacionales son débiles. El financiamiento, tanto de fuentes nacionales como internacionales, es insuficiente para implementar programas de trasplantes efectivos y los pacientes tienen una protección financiera inadecuada. Para hacer frente a estos desafíos, se propone que los países y los socios elaboren e implementen políticas, estrategias, programas y marcos normativos de todos los aspectos de la donación y el trasplante de tejidos y órganos, incluida la lucha contra el tráfico de órganos y el turismo de trasplantes. Cuando existan programas de donación y trasplante, las partes interesadas deberían desarrollar las habilidades de los recursos humanos y adoptar estándares técnicos y procedimientos de gestión de calidad para mejorar la donación y el trasplante de tejidos y órganos humanos.

Healthcare Leaders Develop Strategies for Expanding National Surgical, Obstetric, and Anaesthesia Plans in WHO AFRO and EMRO Regions.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, five billion people lack access to safe, affordable surgical, obstetric, and anaesthesia (SOA) care when needed. In many countries, a growing commitment to SOA care is culminating in the development of national surgical, obstetric, and anaesthesia plans (NSOAPs) that are fully embedded in the National Health Strategic Plan. This manuscript highlights the content and outputs from a World Health Organization (WHO) lead workshop that supported country-led plans for improving SOA care as a component of health system strengthening. METHODS: In March 2018, a group of 79 high-level global SOA stakeholders from 25 countries in the WHO AFRO and EMRO regions gathered in Dubai to provide technical and strategic guidance for the creation and expansion of NSOAPs. RESULTS: Drawing on the experience and expertise of represented countries that are at different stages of the NSOAP process, topics covered included (1) the global burden of surgical, obstetric, and anaesthetic conditions; (2) the key principles and components of NSOAP development; (3) the critical evaluation and feasibility of different models of NSOAP implementation; and (4) innovative financing mechanisms to fund NSOAPs. CONCLUSIONS: Lessons learned include: (1) there is unmet need for the establishment of an NSOAP community in order to provide technical support, expertise, and mentorship at a regional level; (2) data should be used to inform future priorities, for monitoring and evaluation and to showcase advances in care following NSOAP implementation; and (3) SOA health system strengthening must be uniquely prioritized and not hidden within other health strategies.

Strengthening national health research systems in the WHO African Region - progress towards universal health coverage.

BACKGROUND: Health challenges and health systems set-ups differ, warranting contextualised healthcare interventions to move towards universal health coverage. As such, there is emphasis on generation of contextualized evidence to solve local challenges. However, weak research capacity and inadequate resources remain an impendiment to quality research in the African region. WHO African Region (WHO AFR) facilitated the adoption of a regional strategy for strengthening national health research systems (NHRS) in 2015. We assessed the progress in strengthening NHRS among the 47 member states of the WHO AFR. METHODS: We employed a cross sectional survey design using a semi structured questionnaire. All the 47member states of WHO AFR were surveyed. We assessed performance against indicators of the regional research strategy, explored facilitating factors and barriers to strengthening NHRS. Using the research barometer, which is a metric developed for the WHO AFR we assessed the strength of NHRS of member states. Data were analysed in Excel Software to calculate barometer scores for NHRS function and sub-function. Thematic content was employed in analysing the qualitative data. Data for 2014 were compared to 2018 to assess progress. RESULTS: WHO AFR member states have made significant progress in strengthening their NHRS. Some of the indicators have either attained or exceeded the 2025 targets. The average regional barometer score improved from 43% in 2014 to 61% in 2018. Significant improvements were registered in the governance of research for health (R4H); developing and sustaining research resources and producing and using research. Financing R4H improved only modestly. Among the constraints are the lengthy ethical clearance processes, weak research coordination mechanisms, weak enforcement of research laws and regulation, inadequate research infrastructure, limited resource mobilisation skills and donor dependence. CONCLUSION: There has been significant improvement in the NHRS of member states of the WHO AFRO since the last assessment in 2014. Improvement across the different objectives of the regional research strategy is however varied which compromises overall performance. The survey highlighted the areas with slow improvement that require a concerted effort. Furthermore, the study provides an opportunity for countries to share best practice in areas of excellence.

Harmonisation and standardisation of health sector and programme reviews and evaluations - how can they better inform health policy dialogue?

BACKGROUND: Health sector and programme performance assessments provide a rich source of contextual data directly linked to implementation of programmes and can inform health policy dialogue, planning and resource allocation. In seeking to maximise this opportunity, there are challenges to overcome. A meeting convened by the World Health Organization African Region discussed the strengths, weaknesses and challenges to harmonising and standardising health sector and programme performance assessments, as well as use of evidence from such processes in decision making. This article synthesises the deliberations which emerged from the meeting. Discussing these in light of other literature we propose practical options to standardising health sector and programme performance assessment and improve realisation of using evidence in decision making. DISCUSSION: Use of evidence generated from health sector and programme performance assessments into regular country processes of sectoral monitoring, dialogue and policy modification is crucial. However, this process faces several challenges. Identified challenges were categorised under several themes, namely the weak institutional capacities for monitoring and evaluation in reference to weak health information systems, a lack of tools and skills, and weak accountability mechanisms; desynchronised planning timeframes between programme and overall health sector strategies; inadequate time to undertake comprehensive and good quality performance assessment; weak mechanisms for following up on implementation of recommendations; lack of effective stakeholder participation; and divergent political aspirations. CONCLUSION: The question of what performance assessment is for in a country must be asked and answered clearly if the utility of these processes is to be realised. Standardising programme and sector reviews offers numerable opportunities that need to be maximised. Identified challenges need to be overcome through strengthened Ministry of Health leadership, effective stakeholder engagement and institutionalising follow-up mechanisms for agreed recommendations. In addition, health sector performance assessments need to be institutionalised as part of the accountability mechanism, and they must be planned for and funding secured within annual budget and medium term expenditure frameworks.

Cross country lessons sharing on practices, challenges and innovation in primary health care revitalization and universal health coverage implementation among 18 countries in the WHO African Region.

The fifth health sector directors´ policy and planning meeting for the World Health Organization (WHO) regional office for Africa convened to focus on building health system resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic to ensure continuity of essential health services, primary health care (PHC) revitalization, and health system strengthening towards achieving universal health coverage (UHC). In this paper, we present short summaries and experiences shared by 18 countries, for which their practices and outcomes have been documented in this manuscript. These actions are aligned with six key themes: (i) defining and making more essential health services available, (ii) increasing service coverage targeting hard to reach populations, (iii) financial risk protection, (iv) improving user satisfaction with services, (v) improving health security, and (vi) improving coverage with health-related sector services. It is through these shared country experiences that lessons are learned that can influence the region´s work and advancement to achieve UHC through a PHC approach.

On the resilience of health systems: A methodological exploration across countries in the WHO African Region.

The need for resilient health systems is recognized as important for the attainment of health outcomes, given the current shocks to health services. Resilience has been defined as the capacity to "prepare and effectively respond to crises; maintain core functions; and, informed by lessons learnt, reorganize if conditions require it". There is however a recognized dichotomy between its conceptualization in literature, and its application in practice. We propose two mutually reinforcing categories of resilience, representing resilience targeted at potentially known shocks, and the inherent health system resilience, needed to respond to unpredictable shock events. We determined capacities for each of these categories, and explored this methodological proposition by computing country-specific scores against each capacity, for the 47 Member States of the WHO African Region. We assessed face validity of the computed index, to ensure derived values were representative of the different elements of resilience, and were predictive of health outcomes, and computed bias-corrected non-parametric confidence intervals of the emergency preparedness and response (EPR) and inherent system resilience (ISR) sub-indices, as well as the overall resilience index, using 1000 bootstrap replicates. We also explored the internal consistency and scale reliability of the index, by calculating Cronbach alphas for the various proposed capacities and their corresponding attributes. We computed overall resilience to be 48.4 out of a possible 100 in the 47 assessed countries, with generally lower levels of ISR. For ISR, the capacities were weakest for transformation capacity, followed by mobilization of resources, awareness of own capacities, self-regulation and finally diversity of services respectively. This paper aims to contribute to the growing body of empirical evidence on health systems and service resilience, which is of great importance to the functionality and performance of health systems, particularly in the context of COVID-19. It provides a methodological reflection for monitoring health system resilience, revealing areas of improvement in the provision of essential health services during shock events, and builds a case for the need for mechanisms, at country level, that address both specific and non-specific shocks to the health system, ultimately for the attainment of improved health outcomes.

Protocol for a scoping review of implementation research approaches to universal health coverage in Africa.

INTRODUCTION: Implementation research has emerged as part of evidence-based decision-making efforts to plug current gaps in the translation of research evidence into health policy and practice. While there has been a growing number of institutions and initiatives promoting the uptake of implementation research in Africa, their role and effectiveness remain unclear, particularly in the context of universal health coverage (UHC). This review aims to extensively identify and characterise the nature, facilitators and barriers to the use of implementation research for assessing or evaluating UHC-related interventions or programmes in Africa. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This scoping review will be developed based on the methodological framework proposed by Arksey and O'Malley and enhanced by the Joanna Briggs Institute. It will be reported in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews guidelines. A comprehensive search of the following electronic databases will be conducted: Medline (via PubMed), Scopus and the Cochrane Library. Relevant grey literature and reference lists will also be searched. All publications describing the application of implementation research in the context of UHC will be considered for inclusion. Findings will be narratively synthesised and analysed using a predefined conceptual framework. Where applicable, quantitative evidence will be aggregated using summary statistics. There will be consultation of stakeholders, including UHC-oriented health professionals, programme managers, implementation researchers and policy-makers; to provide methodological, conceptual and practical insights. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The data used in this review will be sourced from publicly available literature; hence, this study will not require ethical approval. Findings and recommendations will be disseminated to reach a diverse audience, including UHC advocates, implementation researchers and key health system stakeholders within the African region. Additionally, findings will be disseminated through an open-access publication in a relevant peer-reviewed journal.

Towards universal health coverage in the WHO African Region: assessing health system functionality, incorporating lessons from COVID-19.

The move towards universal health coverage is premised on having well-functioning health systems, which can assure provision of the essential health and related services people need. Efforts to define ways to assess functionality of health systems have however varied, with many not translating into concrete policy action and influence on system development. We present an approach to provide countries with information on the functionality of their systems in a manner that will facilitate movement towards universal health coverage. We conceptualise functionality of a health system as being a construct of four capacities: access to, quality of, demand for essential services and its resilience to external shocks. We test and confirm the validity of these capacities as appropriate measures of system functionality. We thus provide results for functionality of the 47 countries of the WHO African Region based on this. The functionality of health systems ranges from 34.4 to 75.8 on a 0-100 scale. Access to essential services represents the lowest capacity in most countries of the region, specifically due to poor physical access to services. Funding levels from public and out-of-pocket sources represent the strongest predictors of system functionality, compared with other sources. By focusing on the assessment on the capacities that define system functionality, each country has concrete information on where it needs to focus, in order to improve the functionality of its health system to enable it respond to current needs including achieving universal health coverage, while responding to shocks from challenges such as the 2019 coronavirus disease. This systematic and replicable approach for assessing health system functionality can provide the guidance needed for investing in country health systems to attain universal health coverage goals.

Preventing and managing antimicrobial resistance in the African region: A scoping review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) constitutes a significant threat to global health and food security, typically associated with high morbidity and mortality rate. The high burden of infectious diseases coupled with the weak health systems in most countries of Africa magnifies the risk of increasing AMR and its consequences thereof. This scoping review will be aimed at mapping the evidence on interventions used to prevent and manage antimicrobial resistance in Africa, guided by the "One Health" concept. METHODS: We will consider interventions targeting multiple sectors such as health care systems, the agricultural and veterinary sectors. The outcomes to be considered include reduction of AMR decreased morbidity and mortality due to infectious diseases, increased awareness for rational use of antimicrobials and reduced antibiotic consumption. We will include all types of studies regardless of study designs conducted within the context of the WHO African region. Studies will be excluded if they are not conducted in Africa and if they are literature reviews, only describing the concept of AMR without mentioning interventions. We will include studies identified through a comprehensive search of peer-reviewed and grey literature databases. In addition, we will search the reference lists of included studies and relevant reviews. Finally, we plan to do a citation search for included studies. Findings of this review will be narratively synthesized.

Inequities in utilization of maternal health interventions in Namibia: implications for progress towards MDG 5 targets.

BACKGROUND: Inequities in the utilization of maternal health services impede progress towards the MDG 5 target of reducing the maternal mortality ratio by three quarters, between 1990 and 2015. In Namibia, despite increasing investments in the health sector, the maternal mortality ratio has increased from 271 per 100,000 live births in the period 1991-2000 to 449 per 100,000 live births in 1998-2007. Monitoring equity in the use of maternal health services is important to target scarce resources to those with more need and expedite the progress towards the MDG 5 target. The objective of this study is to measure socio-economic inequalities in access to maternal health services and propose recommendations relevant for policy and planning. METHODS: Data from the Namibia Demographic and Health Survey 2006-07 are analyzed for inequities in the utilization of maternal health. In measuring the inequities, rate-ratios, concentration curves and concentration indices are used. RESULTS: Regions with relatively high human development index have the highest rates of delivery by skilled health service providers. The rate of caesarean section in women with post secondary education is about seven times that of women with no education. Women in urban areas are delivered by skilled providers 30% more than their rural counterparts. The rich use the public health facilities 30% more than the poor for child delivery. CONCLUSION: Most of the indicators such as delivery by trained health providers, delivery by caesarean section and postnatal care show inequities favoring the most educated, urban areas, regions with high human development indices and the wealthy. In the presence of inequities, it is difficult to achieve a significant reduction in the maternal mortality ratio needed to realize the MDG 5 targets so long as a large segment of society has inadequate access to essential maternal health services and other basic social services. Addressing inequities in access to maternal health services should not only be seen as a health systems issue. The social determinants of health have to be tackled through multi-sectoral approaches in line with the principles of Primary Health Care and the recommendations of the Commission on Social Determinants of Health.

A scoping review on research agendas to enhance prevention of epidemics and pandemics in Africa.

INTRODUCTION: research is not only needed to prioritise the best possible response during an epidemic and pandemic, it is also understood to be a core pillar of outbreak response. However, few African countries are equipped to perform the needed surveillance and research activities during an outbreak. Therefore, we mapped out research agendas aimed at increased research preparedness towards epidemics or pandemics in Africa. METHODS: eligible studies were searched for in in PubMed, Scopus, and Google Scholar. Additionally, grey literature was sought in Google, citation searches, as well as targeted sites such as the World Health Organization (WHO), Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, African Union, and the Wellcome Trust. Searches were done in March 2020. RESULTS: the electronic searches yielded 7344 records, of which 34 articles were included in the study. The studies identified around 18 factors highlighted through various research agendas. Majority of the research agendas spoke to general epidemic preparedness and focused largely on understanding virus transmission such as its characteristics and dynamics, and the infrastructure needed to carry out vital research activities. CONCLUSION: the review highlights the research needs in order to carry out vital research work but to also bridge knowledge gaps and harmonize outbreak response from key stakeholders. However, Africa needs to create its own health research agendas and capacitate itself to conduct and lead these studies. African health research decisions must center on Africa, with African researchers taking the lead not only on the science produced but ensuring inclusive and equitable involvement from fellow researchers, and in engaging national health ministries as well as the communities.

Building health system resilience in the context of primary health care revitalization for attainment of UHC: proceedings from the Fifth Health Sector Directors' Policy and Planning Meeting for the WHO African Region.

BACKGROUND: The recent 2018 Declaration of Astana recognized primary health care (PHC) as a means to achieve universal health coverage (UHC) and the health-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Following this declaration, country progress on operationalization of the PHC agenda and attainment of UHC has been stalled by the new challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic has also disrupted the continuity of essential health service provision and tested the resilience of the region's health systems. METHODS: In accordance with this, the WHO Regional Office for Africa convened the Fifth Health Sector Directors' Planning and Policy Meeting across the 47 Member States of the Region. The two-day forum focused on building health system resilience to facilitate service continuity during health threats, PHC revitalization, and health systems strengthening towards UHC. RESULTS: The Regional Forum provided evidence on building resilient health systems in the WHO African Region and engaged participants in meaningful and critical discussion. It is from these discussions that four key themes emerged: (1) working multisectorally/intersectorally, (2) moving from fragmentation to integration, (3) ensuring implementation and knowledge exchange, and (4) rethinking resilience and embracing antifragility. These discussions and associated groupings by thematic areas lend themselves to recommendations for the WHO. CONCLUSIONS: This paper details the proceedings and key findings on building resilient health systems, the four themes that emerged from participant deliberation, and the recommendations that have emerged from the meeting. Deliberations from the Regional Forum are critical, as they have the potential to directly inform policy and program design, given that the meeting convenes health sector technocrats, who are at the helm of policy design, action, and implementation.

The potential effects of widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the World Health Organization African Region: a predictive model.

The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been unprecedented in its speed and effects. Interruption of its transmission to prevent widespread community transmission is critical because its effects go beyond the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths and affect the health system capacity to provide other essential services. Highlighting the implications of such a situation, the predictions presented here are derived using a Markov chain model, with the transition states and country specific probabilities derived based on currently available knowledge. A risk of exposure, and vulnerability index are used to make the probabilities country specific. The results predict a high risk of exposure in states of small size, together with Algeria, South Africa and Cameroon. Nigeria will have the largest number of infections, followed by Algeria and South Africa. Mauritania would have the fewest cases, followed by Seychelles and Eritrea. Per capita, Mauritius, Seychelles and Equatorial Guinea would have the highest proportion of their population affected, while Niger, Mauritania and Chad would have the lowest. Of the World Health Organization's 1 billion population in Africa, 22% (16%-26%) will be infected in the first year, with 37 (29 - 44) million symptomatic cases and 150 078 (82 735-189 579) deaths. There will be an estimated 4.6 (3.6-5.5) million COVID-19 hospitalisations, of which 139 521 (81 876-167 044) would be severe cases requiring oxygen, and 89 043 (52 253-106 599) critical cases requiring breathing support. The needed mitigation measures would significantly strain health system capacities, particularly for secondary and tertiary services, while many cases may pass undetected in primary care facilities due to weak diagnostic capacity and non-specific symptoms. The effect of avoiding widespread and sustained community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is significant, and most likely outweighs any costs of preventing such a scenario. Effective containment measures should be promoted in all countries to best manage the COVID-19 pandemic.

Towards universal health coverage: reforming the neglected district health system in Africa.

In most African countries, the district sphere of governance is a colonial creation for harnessing resources from the communities that are located far away from the centre with the assistance of minimally skilled personnel who are subordinate to the central authority with respect to decision-making and initiative. Unfortunately, postcolonial reforms of district governance have retained the hierarchical structure of the local government. Anchored to such a district arrangement, the (district) health system (DHS) is too weak and impoverished to function in spite of enormous knowledge and natural resources for a seamless implementation of universal health coverage (UHC). Sadly, the quick-fix projects of the 1990s with the laudable intention to reduce the burden of disease within a specified time-point dealt the fatal blow on the DHS administration by diminishing it to a stop-post and a warehouse for commodities (such as bednets and vaccines) destined for the communities. We reviewed the situation of the district in sub-Saharan African countries and identified five attributes that are critical for developing a UHC-friendly DHS. In this analytical paper, we discuss decision-making authority, coordination, resource control, development initiative and management skills as critical factors. We highlight the required strategic shifts and recommend a dialogue for charting an African regional course for a reformed DHS for UHC. Further examination of these factors and perhaps other ancillary criteria will be useful for developing a checklist for assessing the suitability of a DHS for the UHC that Africa deserves.

Perceptions of the usefulness of external support to immunization coverage in Chad: an analysis of the GAVI-Alliance cash-based support.

INTRODUCTION: Chad is one of the countries supported by the GAVI-Alliance that remains with unsatisfactory vaccination coverage. This paper tries to understand the main barriers to better coverage. METHODS: These barriers were categorised as up or downstream against the health system building blocks as proposed by WHO and compared with barriers and activities identified by the country in its health system's strengthening grant proposal as approved by the GAVI Alliance in 2007. Data were collected using a modified Delphi system and by analysis of grant and annual report documents. RESULTS: Most of the activities anticipated under the GAVI health system's strengthening proposal are activities targeting downstream barriers (the neglect of upstream issues is of major importance in a decentralised state like Chad) and aligned with, not complementary to, immunization services strengthening activities. Further, both set of cash grants are blind to important recommendations such as the need to address barriers at the level of leadership and governance and at the level of the financing system and also about initiatives to promote community demand of vaccination services. CONCLUSION: IN CHAD SLOW VACCINATION PROGRESS IS AGGRAVATED BY SEVERAL CONTEXTUAL BARRIERS: the size of the country, the low population density, the nomadic nature of a significant part of its peoples, the recent civil war, associated with civil unrest and political instability and its geographical localization. In this situation it would be important to sustain downstream operations (the major focus of the ISS grant) while taking a long term view of the needs of the health system. The GAVI effectively supports downstream operations, but neglects the long term view.