Phylogenetic Cluster Analysis Identifies Virological and Behavioral Drivers of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Transmission in Men Who Have Sex With Men.

BACKGROUND: Identifying local outbreaks and their drivers is a key step toward curbing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission and potentially achieving HIV elimination. Such outbreaks can be identified as transmission clusters extracted from phylogenetic trees constructed of densely sampled viral sequences. In this study, we combined phylogenetic transmission clusters with extensive data on virological suppression and behavioral risk of cluster members to quantify the drivers of ongoing transmission over 10 years. METHODS: Using the comprehensive Swiss HIV Cohort Study and its drug-resistance database, we reconstructed phylogenetic trees for each year between 2007 and 2017. We identified HIV transmission clusters dominated by men who have sex with men (MSM) and determined their annual growth. We used Poisson regression to assess if cluster growth was associated with a per-cluster infectivity and behavioral risk score. RESULTS: Both infectivity and behavioral risk scores were significantly higher in growing MSM transmission clusters compared to nongrowing clusters (P ≤ .01). The fraction of transmission clusters without infectious members acquiring new infections increased significantly over the study period. The infectivity score was significantly associated with per-capita incidence of MSM transmission clusters in 8 years, while the behavioral risk score was significantly associated with per-capita incidence of MSM transmission clusters in 3 years. CONCLUSIONS: We present a phylogenetic method to identify hotspots of ongoing transmission among MSM. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of treatment as prevention at the population level. However, the significantly increasing number of new infections among transmission clusters without infectious members highlights a relative shift from diagnosed to undiagnosed individuals as drivers of HIV transmission in Swiss MSM.

Viral Diversity Based on Next-Generation Sequencing of HIV-1 Provides Precise Estimates of Infection Recency and Time Since Infection.

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) genetic diversity increases over the course of infection and can be used to infer the time since infection and, consequently, infection recency, which are crucial for HIV-1 surveillance and the understanding of viral pathogenesis. METHODS: We considered 313 HIV-infected individuals for whom reliable estimates of infection dates and next-generation sequencing (NGS)-derived nucleotide frequency data were available. Fractions of ambiguous nucleotides, obtained by population sequencing, were available for 207 samples. We assessed whether the average pairwise diversity calculated using NGS sequences provided a more exact prediction of the time since infection and classification of infection recency (<1 year after infection), compared with the fraction of ambiguous nucleotides. RESULTS: NGS-derived average pairwise diversity classified an infection as recent with a sensitivity of 88% and a specificity of 85%. When considering only the 207 samples for which fractions of ambiguous nucleotides were available, the NGS-derived average pairwise diversity exhibited a higher sensitivity (90% vs 78%) and specificity (95% vs 67%) than the fraction of ambiguous nucleotides. Additionally, the average pairwise diversity could be used to estimate the time since infection with a mean absolute error of 0.84 years, compared with 1.03 years for the fraction of ambiguous nucleotides. CONCLUSIONS: Viral diversity based on NGS data is more precise than that based on population sequencing in its ability to predict infection recency and provides an estimated time since infection that has a mean absolute error of <1 year.

Noninferiority of Simplified Dolutegravir Monotherapy Compared to Continued Combination Antiretroviral Therapy That Was Initiated During Primary Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection: A Randomized, Controlled, Multisite, Open-label, Noninferiority Trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients who start combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) during primary human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection show a smaller HIV-1 latent reservoir, less immune activation, and less viral diversity compared to patients who start cART during chronic infection. We conducted a pilot study to determine whether these properties would allow sustained virological suppression after simplification of cART to dolutegravir monotherapy. METHODS: EARLY-SIMPLIFIED is a randomized, open-label, noninferiority trial. Patients who started cART <180 days after a documented primary HIV-1 infection and had an HIV-1 RNA <50 copies/mL plasma for at least 48 weeks were randomized (2:1) to monotherapy with dolutegravir 50 mg once daily or to continuation of cART. The primary efficacy endpoint was the proportion of patients with <50 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL on or before week 48; noninferiority margin 10%. RESULTS: Of the 101 patients randomized, 68 were assigned to simplification to dolutegravir monotherapy and 33 to continuation of cART. At week 48 in the per-protocol population, 67/67 (100%) had virological response in the dolutegravir monotherapy group vs 32/32 (100%) in the cART group (difference, 0.00%; 95% confidence interval, -100%, 4.76%). This showed noninferiority of the dolutegravir monotherapy at the prespecified level. CONCLUSION: In this pilot study consisting of patients who initiated cART during primary HIV-1 infection and had <50 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL for at least 48 weeks, monotherapy with once-daily dolutegravir was noninferior to cART. Our results suggest that future simplification studies should use a stratification according to time of HIV infection and start of first cART. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT02551523.

The TransFLUas influenza transmission study in acute healthcare - recruitment rates and protocol adherence in healthcare workers and inpatients.

BACKGROUND: Detailed knowledge about viral respiratory disease transmission dynamics within healthcare institutions is essential for effective infection control policy and practice. In the quest to study viral transmission pathways, we aimed to investigate recruitment rates and adherence of healthcare workers (HCWs) and hospital inpatients with a study protocol that involves prospective surveillance based on daily mid-turbinate nasal swabs and illness diaries. METHODS: Single center prospective surveillance of patients and HCWs in three different hospital departments of a tertiary care center during an entire influenza season in Switzerland. Inpatients and acute care HCWs were asked to provide mid-turbinate nasal swabs and illness diaries on a daily basis. Study protocol adherence and recruitment rates were the primary outcomes of interest. RESULTS: A total 251 participants (59 (23.5%) health care workers and 192 (76.5%) inpatients) were recruited from three different hospital wards. Recruitment rates differed between HCWs (62.1% of eligible HCWs) and inpatients (32.5%; P < 0.001), but not within HCWs (P = 0.185) or inpatients (P = 0.301) of the three departments. The total number of study-days was 7874; 2321 (29.5%) for inpatients and 5553 (70.5%) for HCWs. HCWs were followed for a median of 96 days (range, 71-96 days) and inpatients for 8 days (range, 3-77 days). HCWs provided swabs on 73% (range, 0-100%) of study days, and diaries on 77% (range 0-100%). Inpatients provided swabs and diaries for 83% (range, 0-100%) of days in hospital. In HCWs, increasing age, working in internal medicine and longer duration of total study participation were positively associated with the proportion of swabs and diaries collected. Adherence to the study protocol was significantly lower in physicians as compared to nurses for both swabs (P = 0.042) and diaries (P = 0.033). In inpatients, no association between demographic factors and adherence was detected. Conclusions Prospective surveillance of respiratory viral disease was feasible in a cohort of inpatients and HCWs over an entire influenza season, both in terms of recruitment rates and adherence to a study protocol that included daily specimen collection and illness diaries. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov NCT02478905 . Date of registration June 23, 2015.

Parent-offspring regression to estimate the heritability of an HIV-1 trait in a realistic setup.

BACKGROUND: Parent-offspring (PO) regression is a central tool to determine the heritability of phenotypic traits; i.e., the relative extent to which those traits are controlled by genetic factors. The applicability of PO regression to viral traits is unclear because the direction of viral transmission-who is the donor (parent) and who is the recipient (offspring)-is typically unknown and viral phylogenies are sparsely sampled. METHODS: We assessed the applicability of PO regression in a realistic setting using Ornstein-Uhlenbeck simulated data on phylogenies built from 11,442 Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) partial pol sequences and set-point viral load (SPVL) data from 3293 patients. RESULTS: We found that the misidentification of donor and recipient plays a minor role in estimating heritability and showed that sparse sampling does not influence the mean heritability estimated by PO regression. A mixed-effect model approach yielded the same heritability as PO regression but could be extended to clusters of size greater than 2 and allowed for the correction of confounding effects. Finally, we used both methods to estimate SPVL heritability in the SHCS. We employed a wide range of transmission pair criteria to measure heritability and found a strong dependence of the heritability estimates to these criteria. For the most conservative genetic distance criteria, for which heritability estimates are conceptually expected to be closest to true heritability, we found estimates ranging from 32 to 46% across different bootstrap criteria. For less conservative distance criteria, we found estimates ranging down to 8%. All estimates did not change substantially after adjusting for host-demographic factors in the mixed-effect model (±2%). CONCLUSIONS: For conservative transmission pair criteria, both PO regression and mixed-effect models are flexible and robust tools to estimate the contribution of viral genetic effects to viral traits under real-world settings. Overall, we find a strong effect of viral genetics on SPVL that is not confounded by host demographics.

Characterization and Determinants of Long-Term Immune Recovery Under Suppressive Antiretroviral Therapy.

OBJECTIVE: We developed a robust characterization of immune recovery trajectories in people living with HIV on antiretroviral treatment (ART) and relate our findings to epidemiological risk factors and bacterial pneumonia. METHODS: Using data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and the Zurich Primary HIV Infection Cohort Study (n = 5907), we analyzed the long-term trajectories of CD4 cell and CD8 cell counts and their ratio in people living with HIV on ART for at least 8 years by fitting nonlinear mixed-effects models. The determinants of long-term immune recovery were investigated using generalized additive models. In addition, prediction accuracy of the modeled trajectories and their impact on the fit of a model for bacterial pneumonia was assessed. RESULTS: Overall, our population showed good immune recovery (median plateau [interquartile range]-CD4: 718 [555-900] cells/µL, CD8: 709 [547-893] cells/µL, CD4/CD8: 1.01 [0.76-1.37]). The following factors were predictive of recovery: age, sex, nadir/zenith value, pre-ART HIV-1 viral load, hepatitis C, ethnicity, acquisition risk, and timing of ART initiation. The fitted models proved to be an accurate and efficient way of predicting future CD4 and CD8 cell recovery dynamics: Compared with carrying forward the last observation, mean squared errors of the fitted values were lower by 1.3%-18.3% across outcomes. When modeling future episodes of bacterial pneumonia, using predictors derived from the recovery dynamics improved most model fits. CONCLUSION: We described and validated a method to characterize individual immune recovery trajectories of people living with HIV on suppressive ART. These trajectories accurately predict long-term immune recovery and the occurrence of bacterial pneumonia.

Secondary attack rates from asymptomatic and symptomatic influenza virus shedders in hospitals: Results from the TransFLUas influenza transmission study.

OBJECTIVE: Nosocomial transmission of influenza is a major concern for infection control. We aimed to dissect transmission dynamics of influenza, including asymptomatic transmission events, in acute care. DESIGN: Prospective surveillance study during 2 influenza seasons. SETTING: Tertiary-care hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Volunteer sample of inpatients on medical wards and healthcare workers (HCWs). METHODS: Participants provided daily illness diaries and nasal swabs for influenza A and B detection and whole-genome sequencing for phylogenetic analyses. Contacts between study participants were tracked. Secondary influenza attack rates were calculated based on spatial and temporal proximity and phylogenetic evidence for transmission. RESULTS: In total, 152 HCWs and 542 inpatients were included; 16 HCWs (10.5%) and 19 inpatients (3.5%) tested positive for influenza on 109 study days. Study participants had symptoms of disease on most of the days they tested positive for influenza (83.1% and 91.9% for HCWs and inpatients, respectively). Also, 11(15.5%) of 71 influenza-positive swabs among HCWs and 3 (7.9%) of 38 influenza-positive swabs among inpatients were collected on days without symptoms; 2 (12.5%) of 16 HCWs and 2 (10.5%) of 19 inpatients remained fully asymptomatic. The secondary attack rate was low: we recorded 1 transmission event over 159 contact days (0.6%) that originated from a symptomatic case. No transmission event occurred in 61 monitored days of contacts with asymptomatic influenza-positive individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza in acute care is common, and individuals regularly shed influenza virus without harboring symptoms. Nevertheless, both symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission events proved rare. We suggest that healthcare-associated influenza prevention strategies that are based on preseason vaccination and barrier precautions for symptomatic individuals seem to be effective.

Heritability of the HIV-1 reservoir size and decay under long-term suppressive ART.

The HIV-1 reservoir is the major hurdle to curing HIV-1. However, the impact of the viral genome on the HIV-1 reservoir, i.e. its heritability, remains unknown. We investigate the heritability of the HIV-1 reservoir size and its long-term decay by analyzing the distribution of those traits on viral phylogenies from both partial-pol and viral near full-length genome sequences. We use a unique nationwide cohort of 610 well-characterized HIV-1 subtype-B infected individuals on suppressive ART for a median of 5.4 years. We find that a moderate but significant fraction of the HIV-1 reservoir size 1.5 years after the initiation of ART is explained by genetic factors. At the same time, we find more tentative evidence for the heritability of the long-term HIV-1 reservoir decay. Our findings indicate that viral genetic factors contribute to the HIV-1 reservoir size and hence the infecting HIV-1 strain may affect individual patients' hurdle towards a cure.

HCV Genetic Diversity Can Be Used to Infer Infection Recency and Time since Infection.

HIV-1 genetic diversity can be used to infer time since infection (TSI) and infection recency. We adapted this approach for HCV and identified genomic regions with informative diversity. We included 72 HCV/HIV-1 coinfected participants of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, for whom reliable estimates of infection date and viral sequences were available. Average pairwise diversity (APD) was calculated over each codon position for the entire open reading frame of HCV. Utilizing cross validation, we evaluated the correlation of APD with TSI, and its ability to infer TSI via a linear model. We additionally studied the ability of diversity to classify infections as recent (infected for <1 year) or chronic, using receiver-operator-characteristic area under the curve (ROC-AUC) in 50 patients whose infection could be unambiguously classified as either recent or chronic. Measuring HCV diversity over third or all codon positions gave similar performances, and notable improvement over first or second codon positions. APD calculated over the entire genome enabled classification of infection recency (ROC-AUC = 0.76). Additionally, APD correlated with TSI (R2 = 0.33) and could predict TSI (mean absolute error = 1.67 years). Restricting the region over which APD was calculated to E2-NS2 further improved accuracy (ROC-AUC = 0.85, R2 = 0.54, mean absolute error = 1.38 years). Genetic diversity in HCV correlates with TSI and is a proxy for infection recency and TSI, even several years post-infection.

Host Genomics of the HIV-1 Reservoir Size and Its Decay Rate During Suppressive Antiretroviral Treatment.

BACKGROUND: The primary hurdle for the eradication of HIV-1 is the establishment of a latent viral reservoir early after primary infection. Here, we investigated the potential influence of human genetic variation on the HIV-1 reservoir size and its decay rate during suppressive antiretroviral treatment. SETTING: Genome-wide association study and exome sequencing study to look for host genetic determinants of HIV-1 reservoir measurements in patients enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, a nation-wide prospective observational study. METHODS: We measured total HIV-1 DNA in peripheral blood mononuclear cells from study participants, as a proxy for the reservoir size at 3 time points over a median of 5.4 years, and searched for associations between human genetic variation and 2 phenotypic readouts: the reservoir size at the first time point and its decay rate over the study period. We assessed the contribution of common genetic variants using genome-wide genotyping data from 797 patients with European ancestry enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and searched for a potential impact of rare variants and exonic copy number variants using exome sequencing data generated in a subset of 194 study participants. RESULTS: Genome-wide and exome-wide analyses did not reveal any significant association with the size of the HIV-1 reservoir or its decay rate on suppressive antiretroviral treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Our results point to a limited influence of human genetics on the size of the HIV-1 reservoir and its long-term dynamics in successfully treated individuals.

Determinants of HIV-1 reservoir size and long-term dynamics during suppressive ART.

The HIV-1 reservoir is the major hurdle to a cure. We here evaluate viral and host characteristics associated with reservoir size and long-term dynamics in 1,057 individuals on suppressive antiretroviral therapy for a median of 5.4 years. At the population level, the reservoir decreases with diminishing differences over time, but increases in 26.6% of individuals. Viral blips and low-level viremia are significantly associated with slower reservoir decay. Initiation of ART within the first year of infection, pretreatment viral load, and ethnicity affect reservoir size, but less so long-term dynamics. Viral blips and low-level viremia are thus relevant for reservoir and cure studies.

Incidental Findings on Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-Positive and HIV-Negative Persons.

BACKGROUND: Incidental findings on coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) have a great impact on the benefits and costs of testing for cardiovascular disease. The number of incidental findings might be increased in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive individuals compared with the general population. Data are limited regarding the association between incidental findings and HIV infection. METHODS: We assessed the prevalence and factors associated with incidental findings among HIV-positive and HIV-negative participants ≥45 years undergoing CCTA. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate the factors associated with incidental findings in the HIV-positive and HIV-negative groups. For the analysis of the HIV effect, a propensity score-matched dataset of HIV-positive/HIV-negative participants was used. RESULTS: We included 553 participants, 341 with and 212 without HIV infection. Incidental findings were observed in 291 of 553 (53%) patients. In 42 of 553 (7.6%) participants, an incidental finding resulted in additional workup. A malignancy was diagnosed in 2 persons. In the HIV-positive group, age (1.31 per 5 years, 1.10-1.56) and smoking (2.29, 1.43-3.70) were associated with incidental findings; in the HIV-negative group, age (1.26, 1.01-1.59) and a CAC score >0 (2.08, 1.09-4.02) were associated with incidental findings. Human immunodeficiency virus seropositivity did not affect the risk of incidental findings. CONCLUSIONS: Incidental findings were highly prevalent among HIV-positive and HIV-negative persons. Human immunodeficiency virus infection was not associated with an increased risk of incidental findings.

Assessing the danger of self-sustained HIV epidemics in heterosexuals by population based phylogenetic cluster analysis.

Assessing the danger of transition of HIV transmission from a concentrated to a generalized epidemic is of major importance for public health. In this study, we develop a phylogeny-based statistical approach to address this question. As a case study, we use this to investigate the trends and determinants of HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals. We extract the corresponding transmission clusters from a phylogenetic tree. To capture the incomplete sampling, the delayed introduction of imported infections to Switzerland, and potential factors associated with basic reproductive number R0, we extend the branching process model to infer transmission parameters. Overall, the R0 is estimated to be 0.44 (95%-confidence interval 0.42-0.46) and it is decreasing by 11% per 10 years (4%-17%). Our findings indicate rather diminishing HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals far below the epidemic threshold. Generally, our approach allows to assess the danger of self-sustained epidemics from any viral sequence data.

In epidemiology, the "basic reproductive number" describes how efficiently a disease is transmitted, and represents the average number of new infections that an infected individual causes. If this number is less than one, many people do not infect anybody and hence the transmission chains die out. On the other hand, if the basic reproductive number is larger than one, an infected person infects on average more than one new individual, which leads to the virus or bacteria spreading in a self-sustained way. Turk et al. have now developed a method to estimate the basic reproductive number using the genetic sequences of the virus or bacteria, and have used it to investigate how efficiently HIV spreads among Swiss heterosexuals. The results show that the basic reproductive number of HIV in this group is far below the critical value of one and that over the last years this number has been decreasing. Furthermore, the basic reproductive number differs for different subtypes of the HIV virus, indicating that the geographical region where the infection was acquired may play a role in transmission. Turk et al. also found that people who are diagnosed later or who often have sex with occasional partners spread the virus more efficiently. These findings might be helpful for policy makers as they indicate that the risk of self-sustained transmission in this group in Switzerland is small. Furthermore the method allows HIV epidemics to be monitored at high resolution using sequence data, assesses the success of currently implemented preventive measures, and helps to target subgroups who are at higher risk of an infection ­ for instance, by supporting frequent HIV testing of these people. The method developed by Turk et al. could also prove useful for assessing the danger of other epidemics.