Identification of early predictors for infected necrosis in acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: In acute pancreatitis, secondary infection of pancreatic necrosis is a complication that mostly necessitates interventional therapy. A reliable prediction of infected necrotizing pancreatitis would enable an early identification of patients at risk, which however, is not possible yet. METHODS: This study aims to identify parameters that are useful for the prediction of infected necrosis and to develop a prediction model for early detection. We conducted a retrospective analysis from the hospital information and reimbursement data system and screened 705 patients hospitalized with diagnosis of acute pancreatitis who underwent contrast-enhanced computed tomography and additional diagnostic puncture or drainage of necrotic collections. Both clinical and laboratory parameters were analyzed for an association with a microbiologically confirmed infected pancreatic necrosis. A prediction model was developed using a logistic regression analysis with stepwise inclusion of significant variables. The model quality was tested by receiver operating characteristics analysis and compared to single parameters and APACHE II score. RESULTS: We identified a total of 89 patients with necrotizing pancreatitis, diagnosed by computed tomography, who additionally received biopsy or drainage. Out of these, 59 individuals had an infected necrosis. Eleven parameters showed a significant association with an infection including C-reactive protein, albumin, creatinine, and alcoholic etiology, which were independent variables in a predictive model. This model showed an area under the curve of 0.819, a sensitivity of 0.692 (95%-CI [0.547-0.809]), and a specificity of 0.840 (95%-CI [0.631-0.947]), outperforming single laboratory markers and APACHE II score. Even in cases of missing values predictability was reliable. CONCLUSION: A model consisting of a few single blood parameters and etiology of pancreatitis might help for differentiation between infected and non-infected pancreatic necrosis and assist medical therapy in acute necrotizing pancreatitis.

Infection of (Peri-)Pancreatic Necrosis Is Associated with Increased Rates of Adverse Events during Endoscopic Drainage: A Retrospective Study.

Pancreatic necroses are a major challenge in the treatment of patients with pancreatitis, causing high morbidity. When indicated, these lesions are usually drained endoscopically using plastic or metal stents. However, data on factors associated with the occurrence of failure or adverse events during stent therapy are scarce. We retrospectively analyzed all adverse events and their associated features which occurred in patients who underwent a first-time endoscopic drainage of pancreatic necrosis from 2009 to 2019. During the observation period, a total of 89 eligible cases were identified. Adverse events occurred in 58.4% of the cases, of which 76.9% were minor (e.g., stent dislocation, residual lesions, or stent obstruction). However, these events triggered repeated interventions (63.5% vs. 0%, p < 0.001) and prolonged hospital stays (21.0 [11.8−63.0] vs. 14.0 [7.0−31.0], p = 0.003) compared to controls without any adverse event. Important factors associated with the occurrence of adverse events during endoscopic drainage therapy were positive necrosis cultures (6.1 [2.3−16.1], OR [95% CI], p < 0.001) and a larger diameter of the treated lesion (1.3 [1.1−1.5], p < 0.001). Superinfection of pancreatic necrosis is the most significant factor increasing the likelihood of adverse events during endoscopic drainage. Therefore, control of infection is crucial for successful drainage therapy, and future studies need to consider superinfection of pancreatic necrosis as a possible confounding factor when comparing different therapeutic modalities.