Geographical distribution and ecological niche modeling of the etiological agents of human sporotrichosis in Venezuela.

The geographical distribution and ecological niche of the two circulating species of the Sporothrix genus in Venezuela was established. For this, 68 isolates of Sporothrix spp. from patients of different regions of the country were analyzed. A molecular taxonomy analysis was conducted using a fragment of the calmodulin gene (CAL), and ITS regions, confirming the presence of S. schenckii (62%) and S. globosa (38%). Computational models of ecological niche for each species were obtained by the maximum entropy method using the MaxEnt software, which predicted the best environmental conditions for the presence of the two species. These models predict that the main variables influencing the presence of S. schenckii were altitude and annual mean temperature, while for S. globosa, the more influent variable was the land use, with 82% of S. globosa located at urban areas vs 56% for S. schenckii. The results here presented could contribute to understand the specific environmental factors that might modulate the occurrence of Sporothrix spp. as well as its transmission. To our knowledge, our analyses show for the first time Sporothrix spp.-specific ecological niche data, a valuable tool to promote evidence-based public health policymaking within endemic areas of sporotrichosis.

Estimating large carnivore populations at global scale based on spatial predictions of density and distribution - Application to the jaguar (Panthera onca).

Broad scale population estimates of declining species are desired for conservation efforts. However, for many secretive species including large carnivores, such estimates are often difficult. Based on published density estimates obtained through camera trapping, presence/absence data, and globally available predictive variables derived from satellite imagery, we modelled density and occurrence of a large carnivore, the jaguar, across the species' entire range. We then combined these models in a hierarchical framework to estimate the total population. Our models indicate that potential jaguar density is best predicted by measures of primary productivity, with the highest densities in the most productive tropical habitats and a clear declining gradient with distance from the equator. Jaguar distribution, in contrast, is determined by the combined effects of human impacts and environmental factors: probability of jaguar occurrence increased with forest cover, mean temperature, and annual precipitation and declined with increases in human foot print index and human density. Probability of occurrence was also significantly higher for protected areas than outside of them. We estimated the world's jaguar population at 173,000 (95% CI: 138,000-208,000) individuals, mostly concentrated in the Amazon Basin; elsewhere, populations tend to be small and fragmented. The high number of jaguars results from the large total area still occupied (almost 9 million km2) and low human densities (< 1 person/km2) coinciding with high primary productivity in the core area of jaguar range. Our results show the importance of protected areas for jaguar persistence. We conclude that combining modelling of density and distribution can reveal ecological patterns and processes at global scales, can provide robust estimates for use in species assessments, and can guide broad-scale conservation actions.

Global invasion of Lantana camara: has the climatic niche been conserved across continents?

Lantana camara, a native plant from tropical America, is considered one of the most harmful invasive species worldwide. Several studies have identified potentially invasible areas under scenarios of global change, on the assumption that niche is conserved during the invasion process. Recent studies, however, suggest that many invasive plants do not conserve their niches. Using Principal Components Analyses (PCA), we tested the hypothesis of niche conservatism for L. camara by comparing its native niche in South America with its expressed niche in Africa, Australia and India. Using MaxEnt, the estimated niche for the native region was projected onto each invaded region to generate potential distributions there. Our results demonstrate that while L. camara occupied subsets of its original native niche in Africa and Australia, in India its niche shifted significantly. There, 34% of the occurrences were detected in warmer habitats nonexistent in its native range. The estimated niche for India was also projected onto Africa and Australia to identify other vulnerable areas predicted from the observed niche shift detected in India. As a result, new potentially invasible areas were identified in central Africa and southern Australia. Our findings do not support the hypothesis of niche conservatism for the invasion of L. camara. The mechanisms that allow this species to expand its niche need to be investigated in order to improve our capacity to predict long-term geographic changes in the face of global climatic changes.