Safety and tolerability outcomes of nonanesthesiologist-administered propofol using target-controlled infusion in routine GI endoscopy.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Nonanesthesiologist-administered propofol (NAAP) is increasingly accepted, but data are limited on drug administration using target-controlled infusion (TCI) in clinical practice. TCI adjusts the drug infusion based on patient-specific parameters, maintaining a constant drug dose to reduce the risk of adverse events (AEs) because of drug overdosing and to enhance patient comfort. The aims of this study were to assess the rate of AEs and to evaluate patient satisfaction with NAAP using TCI in a retrospective cohort of 18,302 procedures. METHODS: Low-risk patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists score I and II) undergoing outpatient GI endoscopic procedures, including EGDs and colonoscopies, were sequentially enrolled at IRCCS San Raffaele Hospital (Milan, Italy) between May 2019 and November 2021. RESULTS: Data from 7162 EGDs and 11,140 colonoscopies were analyzed. Mean patient age was 59.1 ± 14.8 years, and mean body mass index was 24.9 ± 3.7 kg/m2. The male-to-female ratio was equal at 8798 (48.1%):9486 (51.9%). AEs occurred in 240 procedures (1.3%) out of the total cohort, with no differences between EGDs and colonoscopies (100 [1.4%] and 140 [1.2%], respectively; P = .418). Most patients (15,875 [98.9%]) indicated they would likely repeat the procedure with the same sedation protocol. Age (odds ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.03; P < .008) was the only independent factor associated with overall AEs. CONCLUSIONS: NAAP using TCI is an effective and safe sedation method for routine endoscopy. The proper propofol dosage based on individual patients and the presence of trained operators are crucial for NAAP sedation management.

Endoscopic vacuum therapy versus self-expandable metal stent for treatment of anastomotic leaks < 30 mm following oncologic Ivor-Lewis esophagectomy: a matched case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Management of anastomotic leaks after Ivor-Lewis esophagectomy remains a challenge. Although intracavitary endoscopic vacuum therapy (EVT) has shown great efficacy for large dehiscences, the optimal management of smaller leaks has not been standardized. This study aims to compare EVT versus self-expandable metal stent (SEMS) in the treatment of leaks < 30 mm in size, due to the lack of current data on this topic. METHODS: Patients undergoing EVT (cases) or SEMS (controls) between May 2017 and July 2022 for anastomotic leaks < 3 cm following oncologic Ivor-Lewis esophagectomy were enrolled. Controls were matched in a 1:1 ratio based on age (± 3 years), BMI (± 3 kg/m2) and leak size (± 4 mm). RESULTS: Cases (n = 22) and controls (n = 22) showed no difference in baseline characteristics and leak size, as per matching at enrollment. No differences were detected between the two groups in terms of time from surgery to endoscopic treatment (p = 0.11) or total number of procedures per patient (p = 0.05). Remarkably, the two groups showed comparable results in terms of leaks resolution (90.9% vs. 72.7%, p = 0.11). The number of procedures per patient was not significant between the two cohorts (p = 0.05). The most frequent complication in the SEMS group was migration (15.3% of procedures). CONCLUSION: EVT and SEMS seem to have similar efficacy outcomes in the treatment of anastomotic defects < 30 mm after Ivor-Lewis esophagectomy. However, larger studies are needed to corroborate these findings.

Diet and Lifestyle Habits in Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer: A Pilot Case-Control Study.

BACKGROUND: Early-onset colorectal cancer (eoCRC), defined as a colorectal cancer (CRC) in patients younger than 50 years old, shows an increasing incidence worldwide in the latest years. The role of exogenous factors associated with CRC has been largely overlooked in eoCRC. Here, we conducted a case-control study to evaluate the diet and the lifestyle habits in an Italian population of patients with eoCRC, compared to age-matched healthy controls (HCs). METHODS: We enrolled 118 subjects (47 cases, 71 controls) in a third-level academic hospital. We analyzed epidemiological features (age, sex, body mass index), lifestyle behaviors (smoking habits, physical activity, type of diet, use of dietary supplements), and eating habits (semiquantitative food-frequency questionnaire) in eoCRCs and HCs, covering the previous 5 years. RESULTS: In our cohort, positive family history of CRC was significantly associated with the development of eoCRC (p = 0.004). Fresh meat (p = 0.003), processed meat (p < 0.001), dairy products (p = 0.013), and smoking (p = 0.0001) were significantly associated with eoCRC compared to controls. Other variables did not differ significantly between the two groups. CONCLUSION: Fresh and processed meat, dairy products, and smoking could be considered significant risk factors for eoCRC, although further confirmation by international multicenter studies is desirable. Diet and smoking could be the main areas of future interventions for eoCRC primary prevention.

Transoral incisionless fundoplication with Medigus ultrasonic surgical endostapler (MUSE) for the treatment of gastro-esophageal reflux disease: outcomes up to 3 years.

BACKGROUND: Transoral incisionless fundoplication (TIF) with Medigus Ultrasonic Surgical Endostapler (MUSE) is a new intervention for treatment of gastro-esophageal reflux disease (GERD). We aimed at assessing the clinical, functional, and endoscopic effects of TIF by MUSE. METHODS: Forty-six patients underwent TIF. Proton pump inhibitor (PPI) consumption, GERD-health-related quality of life (HRQL) and reflux symptom index (RSI) questionnaires, upper gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy, esophageal 24-h pH-impedance recording, and high-resolution manometry (HRM) were done before TIF and scheduled 6 and 12 months later (HRM only at 6-month). PPI consumption and symptoms were then assessed yearly. Data up to 3 years are reported in this study (PP- and ITT-analysis). RESULTS: TIF was successfully performed in 45/46 patients; in one patient esophageal intubation was impossible. Perforation occurred in two cases. One patient required surgery within 6 months. Clinical follow-up was available for 42 patients at 6 months and 1 year, 35 patients at 2 years, and 31 patients at 3 years. At 1, 2, and 3 years, PPI consumption was stopped, respectively, in 64.3%, 62.9%, and 74.2% of cases (ITT-analysis: 58.7%, 56.4%, and 65.7%). GERD-HRQL and RSI scores decreased at least 50%, respectively, in 71.5% and 76.2%, 71.4% and 68.6%, and 67.7% of cases (ITT-analysis: 65.2% and 69.6%, 64.1% and 61.5%, and 60%). A significant improvement of both scores was observed up to 3 years. 6-month and 1-year functional follow-up were possible in 31 and 20 patients. HRM showed significant increase of the median lower esophageal sphincter length and rate of peristaltic waves. Esophageal pH-impedance recording found significantly fewer acid, proximal and total refluxes, and percentage of esophageal pH < 4 total time at 6 months, but not at 1 year. CONCLUSION: TIF by MUSE significantly improved symptoms and PPIs consumption up to 3 years. However, esophagitis still persisted in one-third of cases at 1 year and functional improvement at 6 months was not confirmed at 1 year. Severe complications requiring surgery occurred in two cases. CLINICALTRIALS: GOV: ID: NCT03669874.

Risk of Covert Submucosal Cancer in Patients With Granular Mixed Laterally Spreading Tumors.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Granular mixed laterally spreading tumors (GM-LSTs) have an intermediate level of risk for submucosal invasive cancer (SMICs) without clear signs of invasion (covert); the optimal resection method is uncertain. We aimed to determine the risk of covert SMIC in GM-LSTs based on clinical and endoscopic factors. METHODS: We collected data from 693 patients (50.6% male; median age, 69 years) with colorectal GM-LSTs, without signs of invasion, who underwent endoscopic resection (74.2%) or endoscopic submucosal dissection (25.2%) at 7 centers in Italy from 2016 through 2019. We performed multivariate and univariate analyses to identify demographic and endoscopic factors associated with risk of SMIC. We developed a multivariate model to calculate the number needed to treat (NNT) to detect 1 SMIC. RESULTS: Based on pathology analysis, 66 patients (9.5%) had covert SMIC. In multivariate analyses, increased risk of covert SMIC were independently associated with increasing lesion size (odds ratio per mm increase, 1.02, 95% CI, 1.01-1.03; P = .003) and rectal location (odds ratio, 3.08; 95% CI, 1.62-5.83; P = .004). A logistic regression model based on lesion size (with a cutoff of 40 mm) and rectal location identified patients with covert SMIC with 47.0% sensitivity, 82.6% specificity, and an area under the curve of 0.69. The NNT to identify 1 patient with a nonrectal SMIC smaller than 4 cm was 20; the NNT to identify 1 patient with a rectal SMIC of 4 cm or more was 5. CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of data from 693 patients, we found the risk of covert SMIC in patients with GM-LSTs to be approximately 10%. GM-LSTs of 4 cm or more and a rectal location are high risk and should be treated by en-bloc resection. ClinicalTrials.gov, Number: NCT03836131.

G-EYE colonoscopy is superior to standard colonoscopy for increasing adenoma detection rate: an international randomized controlled trial (with videos).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is largely preventable with routine screening and surveillance colonoscopy; however, interval cancers arising from precancerous lesions missed by standard colonoscopy still occur. An increased adenoma detection rate (ADR) has been found to be inversely associated with interval cancers. The G-EYE device includes a reusable balloon integrated at the distal tip of a standard colonoscope, which flattens haustral folds, centralizes the colonoscope's optics, and reduces bowel slippage. The insufflated balloon also aims to enhance visualization of the colon during withdrawal, thereby increasing the ADR. METHODS: In this randomized, controlled, international, multicenter study (11 centers), patients (aged ≥50 years) referred to colonoscopy for screening, surveillance, or changes in bowel habits were randomized to undergo either balloon-assisted colonoscopy by using an insufflated balloon during withdrawal or standard high-definition colonoscopy. The primary endpoint was the ADR. RESULTS: One thousand patients were enrolled between May 2014 and September 2016 to undergo colonoscopy by experienced endoscopists; 803 were finally analyzed (standard colonoscopy n = 396; balloon-assisted colonoscopy n = 407). Baseline parameters were similar in both groups. Balloon-assisted colonoscopy provided a 48.0% ADR compared with 37.5% in the standard colonoscopy group (28% increase; P = .0027). Additionally, balloon-assisted colonoscopy provided for a significant increase in detection of advanced (P = .0033) flat adenomas (P < .0001) and sessile serrated adenomas/polyps (P = .0026). CONCLUSION: Balloon-assisted colonoscopy yielded a higher ADR and increased the detection of advanced, flat, and sessile serrated adenomas/polyps when compared with standard colonoscopy. Improved detection by the G-EYE device could impact the quality of CRC screening by reducing miss rates and consequently reducing interval cancer incidence. (Clinical trial registration number: NCT01917513.).

Resection outcomes and recurrence rates of endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) and hybrid ESD for colorectal tumors in a single Italian center.

BACKGROUND: Endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) and hybrid-ESD techniques are treatment modalities for colorectal neoplasia, although mostly used in the Eastern hemisphere. Only few data on ESD for colorectal neoplasia have been published in the West. We report the outcomes of colorectal ESD and hybrid ESD in a single Italian center. METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated the outcomes of all ESD and hybrid-ESD procedures for colorectal neoplasia performed over the first 2-year experience from a prospectively recorded database. Neuroendocrine tumors and adenocarcinoma with submucosal infiltration through the submucosal (SM) 2 layer or deeper were excluded. The primary outcome was the recurrence rate at the 6- to 12-month follow-up. RESULTS: Fifty-two patients were included in the study, of which 23 underwent ESD and 29 hybrid ESD. The mean lesion sizes for ESD and hybrid ESD were similar (25.8 vs. 25.4 mm, p = 0.940), while median procedure length was significantly longer for ESD (120 vs. 60 min, p < 0.001). ESD and hybrid ESD yielded similar en-bloc resection rate (82.6 vs. 82.8%) and R0 resection rate (34.8 vs. 31%). ESD had a lower neoplasia recurrence rate than hybrid ESD (11.7 vs. 20%) and a lower bleeding rate (0 vs. 8.7%). One perforation occurred in the hybrid-ESD cohort and two perforations in the ESD cohort, of which one required surgical intervention. Non-recurrence at follow-up was associated with R0 status, en-bloc resection, and lesion size ≤ 20 mm. CONCLUSION: Our outcomes are comparable with other studies in Western series. Studies addressing the cost effectiveness of ESD and comparing its long-term outcome with endoscopic mucosal resection in the West are needed.

Serrated polyps <10 mm cannot reliably be characterized by i-Scan without magnification at routine colonoscopy.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal lesions (CRLs) <10 mm found at colonoscopy tend towards "diagnose-and-leave" or "resect-and-discard" strategies based on real-time Kudo glandular pit-pattern's assessment using i-Scan. However, i-Scan has not yet been validated for Kudo's classification. We aimed to assess whether, in routine colonoscopy, i-Scan without magnification and optical enhancement (M-OE) reliably differentiates hyperplastic polyps (HPs) from other serrated lesions (SLs) and conventional adenomas (CAs), and, among SLs, HPs from sessile serrated lesions (SSLs) and traditional or unknown serrated adenomas (TSAs, USAs), in Kudo type II CRLs<10 mm, according to ASGE Preservation and Incorporation of Valuable endoscopic Innovations (PIVI) recommended negative predictive value (NPV) threshold for adenomas. METHODS: Prospectively recorded CRLs over 12 months, classified according to Kudo pit-pattern using i-Scan, were retrospectively compared with histology. RESULTS: Overall, 898 ≤5-mm and 704 6- to 9-mm CRLs were included. Type II pit-pattern was found in 76.6% and 38.7% of HPs and SSLs-TSAs/CAs (P<0.000001), and in 84.1% and 26.6% of SLs and CAs (P<0.000001). Among SLs, it was found in 81.9% and 86.6% of HPs and SSLs-TSAs. In CRLs≤5 mm, HPs were prevalent over other SLs (P=0.00001); in CRLs 6-9 mm, CAs were prevalent (P<0.000001). About 77% of SLs in right colon were SSLs-TSAs; 82% in left colon were HPs. PIVI ≥90% NPV threshold for adenomas was reached for CRLs 6-9mm (92.1%), nearly achieved for CRLs≤5 mm (88.2%), and not reached for SLs independently on the size. CONCLUSIONS: A strategy of "diagnose-and-leave" or "resect-and-discard" cannot be recommended for SLs<10 mm with Kudo type II pit-pattern using i-Scan, especially in right colon, if M-OE unavailable.

Endoscopic Vacuum Therapy (EVT) versus Self-Expandable Metal Stent (SEMS) for Anastomotic Leaks after Upper Gastrointestinal Surgery: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Endoscopic treatment of post-esophagectomy/gastrectomy anastomotic dehiscence includes Self-Expandable Metal Stents (SEMS), which have represented the "gold standard" for many years, and Endoscopic Vacuum Therapy (EVT), which was recently introduced, showing promising results. The aim of the study was to compare outcomes of SEMS and EVT in the treatment of post-esophagectomy/gastrectomy anastomotic leaks, focusing on oncologic surgery. METHODS: A systematic search was performed on Pubmed and Embase, identifying studies comparing EVT versus SEMS for the treatment of leaks after upper gastro-intestinal surgery for malignant or benign pathologies. The primary outcome was the rate of successful leak closure. A meta-analysis was conducted, performing an a priori-defined subgroup analysis for the oncologic surgery group. RESULTS: Eight retrospective studies with 357 patients were eligible. Overall, the EVT group showed a higher success rate (odd ratio [OR] 2.58, 95% CI 1.43-4.66), a lower number of devices (pooled mean difference [pmd] 4.90, 95% CI 3.08-6.71), shorter treatment duration (pmd -9.18, 95% CI -17.05--1.32), lower short-term complication (OR 0.35, 95% CI 0.18-0.71) and mortality rates (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.24-0.92) compared to stenting. In the oncologic surgery subgroup analysis, no differences in the success rate were found (OR 1.59, 95% CI 0.74-3.40, I2 = 0%). CONCLUSIONS: Overall, EVT has been revealed to be more effective and less burdened by complications compared to stenting. In the oncologic surgery subgroup analysis, efficacy rates were similar between the two groups. Further prospective data need to define a unique management algorithm for anastomotic leaks.

Risk factors and clinical characteristics of early-onset colorectal cancer vs. late-onset colorectal cancer: a case-case study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Early-onset colorectal cancer (eoCRC), defined as colorectal cancer (CRC) before the age of 50 is increasing in incidence. We evaluated exogenous and endogenous risk factors, and clinical features of eoCRC, compared to late-onset CRC (loCRC). METHODS: In this retrospective case-case study, patients were prospectively enrolled from 2015 to 2018. We collected clinical features (age, sex, time from symptom onset to diagnosis, symptoms, family history, smoking and alcohol habits, diabetes, BMI, and genetic analysis) and tumor characteristics. Independent risk factors for eoCRC and odds ratios (ORs) were identified. RESULTS: Fifty-four eoCRCs and 494 loCRCs were enrolled. Patients with eoCRC experienced longer delay time from symptom onset to diagnosis: 40.7% were diagnosed within 6 months from symptoms onset, compared to 85.6% of patients with loCRC (P < 0.0001). They differed for sex, presence of symptoms, family history, smoking habit, alcohol intake, and BMI. Rectal localization was more closely associated with eoCRC (64.8%) than loCRC (34.5%, P < 0.0001). Family history of CRC was associated with eoCRC (OR = 8.8). When family history occurred with hereditary cancer syndromes, the OR for eoCRC increased to 21. CONCLUSION: In young adults with alarming symptoms, CRC must be suspected to avoid delay time from symptom onset to diagnosis and genetic risk assessment has to be evaluated. Smoking habits, alcohol intake, and BMI are not associated with eoCRC.

Gastrointestinal mucosal damage in patients with COVID-19 undergoing endoscopy: an international multicentre study.

BACKGROUND: Although evidence suggests frequent gastrointestinal (GI) involvement during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), endoscopic findings are scarcely reported. AIMS: We aimed at registering endoscopic abnormalities and potentially associated risk factors among patients with COVID-19. METHODS: All consecutive patients with COVID-19 undergoing endoscopy in 16 institutions from high-prevalence regions were enrolled. Mann-Whitney U, χ2 or Fisher's exact test were used to compare patients with major abnormalities to those with negative procedures, and multivariate logistic regression to identify independent predictors. RESULTS: Between February and May 2020, during the first pandemic outbreak with severely restricted endoscopy activity, 114 endoscopies on 106 patients with COVID-19 were performed in 16 institutions (men=70.8%, median age=68 (58-74); 33% admitted in intensive care unit; 44.4% reporting GI symptoms). 66.7% endoscopies were urgent, mainly for overt GI bleeding. 52 (45.6%) patients had major abnormalities, whereas 13 bled from previous conditions. The most prevalent upper GI abnormalities were ulcers (25.3%), erosive/ulcerative gastro-duodenopathy (16.1%) and petechial/haemorrhagic gastropathy (9.2%). Among lower GI endoscopies, 33.3% showed an ischaemic-like colitis.Receiver operating curve analysis identified D-dimers >1850 ng/mL as predicting major abnormalities. Only D-dimers >1850 ng/mL (OR=12.12 (1.69-86.87)) and presence of GI symptoms (OR=6.17 (1.13-33.67)) were independently associated with major abnormalities at multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: In this highly selected cohort of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 requiring endoscopy, almost half showed acute mucosal injuries and more than one-third of lower GI endoscopies had features of ischaemic colitis. Among the hospitalisation-related and patient-related variables evaluated in this study, D-dimers above 1850 ng/mL was the most useful at predicting major mucosal abnormalities at endoscopy. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrial.gov (ID: NCT04318366).

Sentinel node mapping during laparoscopic distal gastrectomy for gastric cancer: technical notes.

BACKGROUND: With increasing experience, sentinel node navigation has been applied even to gastric cancer. Sentinel lymph nodes are identified by injecting lymphatic tracer dye and radioisotope-labeled particles around a gastric tumor into the submucosa endoscopically. The aim of this video was to demonstrate the feasibility of laparoscopic sentinel node navigation (SLN) in gastric cancer. METHODS: A 71-year-old man with a diagnosis of gastric cancer was admitted to the authors' department. The preoperative workup demonstrated a uT1 node-negative gastric cancer. The patient was scheduled for laparoscopic distal gastrectomy with SLN. The day before surgery, the patient was submitted to endoscopy. During the procedure, the radiotracer (technetium-99) was injected at four points around the tumor. The operation was performed with the patient in the Lloyd-Davies position using four trocars. After opening of the gastrocolonic ligament, the patient underwent an intraoperative endoscopy, and blue dye (patent blue) was injected at four points around the tumor. The lymphatic basin was identified with the probe and the blue dye. The sentinel node then was identified. No pickup technique was used. A standard laparoscopic gastrectomy with intracorporeal anastomosis was concluded successfully. Through a supraumbilical incision, the specimen was extracted. The sentinel node was dissected at the bench table after the operation. RESULTS: The pathologic report demonstrated a gastric carcinoma, namely, pT1, pN1 (Sentinel node (Sn), 1/36), G3 gastric cancer. Only the sentinel node was positive, containing a micrometastasis. The patient's postoperative course was uneventful. CONCLUSIONS: Sentinel node navigation with a double tracer during laparoscopic gastrectomy for cancer is feasible. Nevertheless, it is mandatory to standardize the method of SLN identification to increase the diagnosis of lymph node metastases.

Endoscopic submucosal dissection: Italian national survey on current practices, training and outcomes.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Most of the evidence supporting endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) comes from Asia. European data are primarily reported by specialized referral centers and thus may not be representative of common European ESD practice. The aim of this study is to understand the current state of ESD practice across Italian endoscopy centers. METHODS: All Italian endoscopists who were known to perform ESD were invited to complete a structured questionnaire including: operator features and competencies, ESD training details and clinical outcomes over a 2-year period. RESULTS: Twenty-nine operators from 23 centers (69% response rate) completed the questionnaire: 18 (62%) were <50 years old; 7 (24%) were female; 16 (70%) were located in Northern Italy. Overall ESD volume was <40 cases in 9 (31%) operators, 40-80 in 8 (27.5%), 80-150 in 4 (13.8%) and >150 in 8 (27.5%). Colorectal ESD was predominant for operators with an experience >80 cases. En-bloc resection rates ranged from 77.2 to 97.2% depending on the anatomic location with an R0 resection rate range of 75.3-93.6%. ESD perforation rates in the colon and rectum were significantly lower when experience was >150 compared to 80-150 cases (p < 0.0001 and p = 0.006 for colon and rectum, respectively). CONCLUSION: ESD in Italy is performed by a significant number of operators. Overall, Italian endoscopists performing ESD have achieved a good competence level. However, there is much variability in training protocols, initial supervision of procedures, practice settings, case mix and procedural volume/year that are likely responsible for some of the suboptimal resectional outcomes and increased perforation risk, mainly in the colon. Standardized training programs, practice parameters and auditing of outcomes are required.

Circulating IGF-I and IGFBP3 Levels Control Human Colonic Stem Cell Function and Are Disrupted in Diabetic Enteropathy.

The role of circulating factors in regulating colonic stem cells (CoSCs) and colonic epithelial homeostasis is unclear. Individuals with long-standing type 1 diabetes (T1D) frequently have intestinal symptoms, termed diabetic enteropathy (DE), though its etiology is unknown. Here, we report that T1D patients with DE exhibit abnormalities in their intestinal mucosa and CoSCs, which fail to generate in vitro mini-guts. Proteomic profiling of T1D+DE patient serum revealed altered levels of insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-I) and its binding protein 3 (IGFBP3). IGFBP3 prevented in vitro growth of patient-derived organoids via binding its receptor TMEM219, in an IGF-I-independent manner, and disrupted in vivo CoSC function in a preclinical DE model. Restoration of normoglycemia in patients with long-standing T1D via kidney-pancreas transplantation or in diabetic mice by treatment with an ecto-TMEM219 recombinant protein normalized circulating IGF-I/IGFBP3 levels and reestablished CoSC homeostasis. These findings demonstrate that peripheral IGF-I/IGFBP3 controls CoSCs and their dysfunction in DE.

A single-centre prospective, cohort study of the natural history of acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: The natural history of acute pancreatitis is based on clinical studies that aim to elucidate the course of disease on the basis of predicted risk factors. AIMS: To evaluate the long-term occurrence of recurrent acute pancreatitis and chronic pancreatitis in a cohort of patients following an initial episode of acute pancreatitis. METHODS: 196 patients were enrolled consecutively and studied prospectively. Clinical characteristics, exogenously/endogenously-associated factors, and evolution to recurrent acute pancreatitis and chronic pancreatitis were analyzed. RESULTS: 40 patients developed recurrent acute pancreatitis 13 of whom developed chronic pancreatitis. In a univariate analysis, recurrent acute pancreatitis was associated with an idiopathic aetiology (p<0.001), pancreas divisum (p=0.001), and higher usage of cigarettes and alcohol (p<0.001; p=0.023). Chronic pancreatitis was associated with a severe first episode of acute pancreatitis (p=0.048), PD (p=0.03), and cigarette smoking (p=0.038). By multivariate analysis, pancreas divisum was an independent risk factor for recurrent acute pancreatitis (OR 11.5, 95% CI 1.6-83.3). A severe first-episode of acute pancreatitis increased the risk of progressing to chronic pancreatitis by nine-fold. CONCLUSIONS: Special attention should be given to patients who experience a severe first attack of acute pancreatitis as there appears to be an increased risk of developing chronic pancreatitis over the long term.