Reconciling the climate and ozone response to the 1257 CE Mount Samalas eruption.

The 1257 CE eruption of Mount Samalas (Indonesia) is the source of the largest stratospheric injection of volcanic gases in the Common Era. Sulfur dioxide emissions produced sulfate aerosols that cooled Earth's climate with a range of impacts on society. The coemission of halogenated species has also been speculated to have led to wide-scale ozone depletion. Here we present simulations from HadGEM3-ES, a fully coupled Earth system model, with interactive atmospheric chemistry and a microphysical treatment of sulfate aerosol, used to assess the chemical and climate impacts from the injection of sulfur and halogen species into the stratosphere as a result of the Mt. Samalas eruption. While our model simulations support a surface air temperature response to the eruption of the order of -1°C, performing well against multiple reconstructions of surface temperature from tree-ring records, we find little evidence to support significant injections of halogens into the stratosphere. Including modest fractions of the halogen emissions reported from Mt. Samalas leads to significant impacts on the composition of the atmosphere and on surface temperature. As little as 20% of the halogen inventory from Mt. Samalas reaching the stratosphere would result in catastrophic ozone depletion, extending the surface cooling caused by the eruption. However, based on available proxy records of surface temperature changes, our model results support only very minor fractions (1%) of the halogen inventory reaching the stratosphere and suggest that further constraints are needed to fully resolve the issue.

Energy landscapes of a hairpin peptide including NMR chemical shift restraints.

Methods recently introduced to improve the efficiency of protein structure prediction simulations by adding a restraint potential to a molecular mechanics force field introduce additional input parameters that can affect the performance. Here we investigate the changes in the energy landscape as the relative weight of the two contributions, force field and restraint potential, is systematically altered, for restraint functions constructed from calculated nuclear magnetic resonance chemical shifts. Benchmarking calculations were performed on a 12-residue peptide, tryptophan zipper 1, which features both secondary structure (a ß-hairpin) and specific packing of tryptophan sidechains. Basin-hopping global optimization was performed to assess the efficiency with which lowest-energy structures are located, and the discrete path sampling approach was employed to survey the energy landscapes between unfolded and folded structures. We find that inclusion of the chemical shift restraints improves the efficiency of structure prediction because the energy landscape becomes more funnelled and the proportion of local minima classified as native increases. However, the funnelling nature of the landscape is reduced as the relative contribution of the chemical shift restraint potential is increased past an optimal value.