COVID-19 amplified racial disparities in the US criminal legal system.

The criminal legal system in the USA drives an incarceration rate that is the highest on the planet, with disparities by class and race among its signature features1-3. During the first year of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the number of incarcerated people in the USA decreased by at least 17%-the largest, fastest reduction in prison population in American history4. Here we ask how this reduction influenced the racial composition of US prisons and consider possible mechanisms for these dynamics. Using an original dataset curated from public sources on prison demographics across all 50 states and the District of Columbia, we show that incarcerated white people benefited disproportionately from the decrease in the US prison population and that the fraction of incarcerated Black and Latino people sharply increased. This pattern of increased racial disparity exists across prison systems in nearly every state and reverses a decade-long trend before 2020 and the onset of COVID-19, when the proportion of incarcerated white people was increasing amid declining numbers of incarcerated Black people5. Although a variety of factors underlie these trends, we find that racial inequities in average sentence length are a major contributor. Ultimately, this study reveals how disruptions caused by COVID-19 exacerbated racial inequalities in the criminal legal system, and highlights key forces that sustain mass incarceration. To advance opportunities for data-driven social science, we publicly released the data associated with this study at Zenodo6.

A Bayesian switching linear dynamical system for estimating seizure chronotypes.

Epilepsy is a disorder characterized by paroxysmal transitions between multistable states. Dynamical systems have been useful for modeling the paroxysmal nature of seizures. At the same time, intracranial electroencephalography (EEG) recordings have recently discovered that an electrographic measure of epileptogenicity, interictal epileptiform activity, exhibits cycling patterns ranging from ultradian to multidien rhythmicity, with seizures phase-locked to specific phases of these latent cycles. However, many mechanistic questions about seizure cycles remain unanswered. Here, we provide a principled approach to recast the modeling of seizure chronotypes within a statistical dynamical systems framework by developing a Bayesian switching linear dynamical system (SLDS) with variable selection to estimate latent seizure cycles. We propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that employs particle Gibbs with ancestral sampling to estimate latent cycles in epilepsy and apply unsupervised learning on spectral features of latent cycles to uncover clusters in cycling tendency. We analyze the largest database of patient-reported seizures in the world to comprehensively characterize multidien cycling patterns among 1,012 people with epilepsy, spanning from infancy to older adulthood. Our work advances knowledge of cycling in epilepsy by investigating how multidien seizure cycles vary in people with epilepsy, while demonstrating an application of an SLDS to frame seizure cycling within a nonlinear dynamical systems framework. It also lays the groundwork for future studies to pursue data-driven hypothesis generation regarding the mechanistic drivers of seizure cycles.

Carbon-negative cement manufacturing from seawater-derived magnesium feedstocks.

This study describes and demonstrates key steps in a carbon-negative process for manufacturing cement from widely abundant seawater-derived magnesium (Mg) feedstocks. In contrast to conventional Portland cement, which starts with carbon-containing limestone as the source material, the proposed process uses membrane-free electrolyzers to facilitate the conversion of carbon-free magnesium ions (Mg2+) in seawater into magnesium hydroxide [Mg(OH)2] precursors for the production of Mg-based cement. After a low-temperature carbonation curing step converts Mg(OH)2 into magnesium carbonates through reaction with carbon dioxide (CO2), the resulting Mg-based binders can exhibit compressive strength comparable to that achieved by Portland cement after curing for only 2 days. Although the proposed "cement-from-seawater" process requires similar energy use per ton of cement as existing processes and is not currently suitable for use in conventional reinforced concrete, its potential to achieve a carbon-negative footprint makes it highly attractive to help decarbonize one of the most carbon-intensive industries.

Cervical Epidural Electrical Stimulation Increases Respiratory Activity through Somatostatin-Expressing Neurons in the Dorsal Cervical Spinal Cord in Rats.

We tested the hypothesis that dorsal cervical epidural electrical stimulation (CEES) increases respiratory activity in male and female anesthetized rats. Respiratory frequency and minute ventilation were significantly increased when CEES was applied dorsally to the C2-C6 region of the cervical spinal cord. By injecting pseudorabies virus into the diaphragm and using c-Fos activity to identify neurons activated during CEES, we found neurons in the dorsal horn of the cervical spinal cord in which c-Fos and pseudorabies were co-localized, and these neurons expressed somatostatin (SST). Using dual viral infection to express the inhibitory Designer Receptors Exclusively Activated by Designer Drugs (DREADD), hM4D(Gi), selectively in SST-positive cells, we inhibited SST-expressing neurons by administering Clozapine N-oxide (CNO). During CNO-mediated inhibition of SST-expressing cervical spinal neurons, the respiratory excitation elicited by CEES was diminished. Thus, dorsal cervical epidural stimulation activated SST-expressing neurons in the cervical spinal cord, likely interneurons, that communicated with the respiratory pattern generating network to effect changes in ventilation.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT A network of pontomedullary neurons within the brainstem generates respiratory behaviors that are susceptible to modulation by a variety of inputs; spinal sensory and motor circuits modulate and adapt this output to meet the demands placed on the respiratory system. We explored dorsal cervical epidural electrical stimulation (CEES) excitation of spinal circuits to increase ventilation in rats. We identified dorsal somatostatin (SST)-expressing neurons in the cervical spinal cord that were activated (c-Fos-positive) by CEES. CEES no longer stimulated ventilation during inhibition of SST-expressing spinal neuronal activity, thereby demonstrating that spinal SST neurons participate in the activation of respiratory circuits affected by CEES. This work establishes a mechanistic foundation to repurpose a clinically accessible neuromodulatory therapy to activate respiratory circuits and stimulate ventilation.

Peroxisomal support of mitochondrial respiratory efficiency promotes ER stress survival.

Endoplasmic reticulum stress (ERS) occurs when cellular demand for protein folding exceeds the capacity of the organelle. Adaptation and cell survival in response to ERS requires a critical contribution by mitochondria and peroxisomes. During ERS responses, mitochondrial respiration increases to ameliorate reactive oxygen species (ROS) accumulation. We now show in yeast that peroxisome abundance also increases to promote an adaptive response. In pox1Δ cells, which are defective in peroxisomal ß-oxidation of fatty acids, the respiratory response to ERS is impaired and ROS accrues. However, the respiratory response to ERS is rescued and ROS production is mitigated in pox1Δ cells overexpressing Mpc1, the mitochondrial pyruvate carrier that provides another source of acetyl CoA to fuel the tricarboxylic acid cycle and oxidative phosphorylation. Using proteomics, select mitochondrial proteins were identified that undergo upregulation upon ERS to remodel the respiratory machinery. The abundance of several peroxisome-based proteins was also increased, corroborating the role of peroxisomes in ERS adaptation. Finally, ERS stimulates assembly of respiratory complexes into higher-order supercomplexes, underlying increased electron transfer efficiency. Our results highlight peroxisomal and mitochondrial support for ERS adaptation to favor cell survival.

Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Tivozanib in Heavily Pretreated Patients With Advanced Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Tivozanib has been approved as a third-line or later therapy for advanced renal cell carcinoma based on the TIVO-3 trial, which was conducted before immune checkpoint therapies (ICT), cabozantinib, and lenvatinib/everolimus became incorporated in the current sequential treatment paradigm for advanced clear cell RCC (ccRCC). METHODS: We performed a retrospective study of patients with advanced ccRCC treated with tivozanib at MD Anderson Cancer Center during 6/2021-7/2023. A blinded radiologist assessed tumor response by RECIST v1.1. We assessed overall response rate (ORR), clinical benefit rate (CBR) [percentage of all treated patients who achieved radiologic response or stable disease (SD) for ≥ 6 months], progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and safety. RESULTS: Of 30 analyzed patients, 23% had performance status ≥ 2; 47% had International Metastatic RCC Database Consortium (IMDC) poor-risk disease. Median number of prior therapies was 4 (range 1-8). All patients received prior ICT, 87% cabozantinib and 60% lenvatinib ± everolimus. Of 26 evaluable patients, 2 patients had confirmed partial response (ORR 7.7%); 5 patients had SD for ≥ 6 months (CBR 23.3%). Median PFS was 3.8 months (range 0.7-13.9); median OS was 14.1 months (range 0.3-28.5). Fifteen patients (50%) had ≥ 1 treatment-related adverse event (TRAE). There were 6 grade ≥ 3 TRAEs [hypertension, congestive heart failure (3), mucositis, and GI perforation (grade 5)]. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of heavily pretreated patients with advanced ccRCC, tivozanib yielded a modest clinical benefit in a minority of patients who received prior ICT, cabozantinib, and lenvatinib ± everolimus. TRAEs were consistent with previously published reports.

Exploring Parental Incarceration, US Government Support Programs, and Child Health and Well-Being: A National Cross-Sectional Study.

OBJECTIVES: To describe relationships between parental incarceration and child health and flourishing-a measure of curiosity, resilience, and self-regulation-and to identify government programs that moderate this relationship. METHODS: Using the National Survey of Children's Health data from 2016 through 2019 for children 6-17 years old, we estimated associations with logistic regression between parental incarceration and overall health and flourishing, adjusting for child, caregiver, and household factors. We secondarily examined physical health (asthma, headaches), mental health (attention deficit disorder/attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, depression), developmental needs (learning disability, special educational plan use), and educational (missing ≥11 school days, repeated grade) outcomes. We performed interaction analyses to determine whether government program participation (eg, free/reduced lunch, cash assistance) moderated relationships between parental incarceration and child outcomes. RESULTS: Children with parental incarceration accounted for 9.3% of the sample (weighted n = 4 400 000). Black, American Indian/Alaska Native, and multiracial children disproportionately experienced parental incarceration. Parental incarceration was associated with worse health (aOR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.11-1.55) and higher odds of not flourishing (aOR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.46-1.89). Physical health, mental health, developmental issues, and educational needs were also associated with parental incarceration. Participation in free and reduced lunch moderated the relationships between parental incarceration and general health and flourishing, and cash assistance moderated the association between parental incarceration and flourishing. For each, parental incarceration had an attenuated association with health among people who participated in government programs. CONCLUSIONS: Parental incarceration is disproportionately experienced by Black and Indigenous children and associated with worse child health and well-being. Government support program participation may mitigate negative associations between parental incarceration and child outcomes.

How Are We Teaching Advocacy? A National Survey of Internal Medicine Residency Program Directors.

BACKGROUND: Although internal medicine (IM) physicians accept public advocacy as a professional responsibility, there is little evidence that IM training programs teach advocacy skills. The prevalence and characteristics of public advocacy curricula in US IM residency programs are unknown. OBJECTIVES: To describe the prevalence and characteristics of curricula in US IM residencies addressing public advocacy for communities and populations; to describe barriers to the provision of such curricula. DESIGN: Nationally representative, web-based, cross-sectional survey of IM residency program directors with membership in an academic professional association. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 276 IM residency program directors (61%) responded between August and December 2022. MAIN MEASUREMENTS: Percentage of US IM residency programs that teach advocacy curricula; characteristics of advocacy curricula; perceptions of barriers to teaching advocacy. KEY RESULTS: More than half of respondents reported that their programs offer no advocacy curricula (148/276, 53.6%). Ninety-five programs (95/276, 34.4%) reported required advocacy curricula; 33 programs (33/276, 12%) provided curricula as elective only. The content, structure, and teaching methods of advocacy curricula in IM programs were heterogeneous; experiential learning in required curricula was low (23/95, 24.2%) compared to that in elective curricula (51/65, 78.5%). The most highly reported barriers to implementing or improving upon advocacy curricula (multiple responses allowed) were lack of faculty expertise in advocacy (200/276, 72%), inadequate faculty time (190/276, 69%), and limited curricular flexibility (148/276, 54%). CONCLUSION: Over half of US IM residency programs offer no formal training in public advocacy skills and many reported lack of faculty expertise in public advocacy as a barrier. These findings suggest many IM residents are not taught how to advocate for communities and populations. Further, less than one-quarter of required curricula in public advocacy involves experiential learning.

Spesolimab: A Review of the First IL-36 Blocker Approved for Generalized Pustular Psoriasis.

OBJECTIVE: This article reviews clinical trial data that assesses the safety, efficacy, and clinical application of spesolimab, an interleukin-36 (IL-36) blocker, for the treatment of generalized pustular psoriasis (GPP). DATA SOURCES: A review of the literature was conducted using the search terms: "spesolimab," "BI 655130," and "spevigo" in MEDLINE (PubMed) and Clinicaltrials.gov from January 1, 1950 to October 31, 2023. STUDY SELECTION AND DATA EXTRACTION: Relevant articles in English relating to the pharmacodynamics, pharmacokinetics, efficacy, and safety of spesolimab were included. DATA SYNTHESIS: In one phase 2 clinical trial evaluating single dose IV spesolimab for GPP flares at day 8, 54% of patients receiving spesolimab had a GPP physician global assessment (GPPGA) pustulation subscore of 0, and 43% had a GPPGA total score of 0 compared with 6% and 11% for the placebo group, respectively. Another phase 2 clinical trial assessing subcutaneous spesolimab found 23% of patients in low-dose, 29% in medium-dose, and 10% of high-dose spesolimab had flares by week 48 compared with 52% of the placebo group. Hazard ratios for time to GPP flare compared with placebo were 0.16 (P = 0.0005), 0.35 (P = 0.0057), and 0.47 (P = 0.027) for the spesolimab groups, respectively. Infection rates were similar across treatment and placebo groups, and severe adverse events such as drug reactions with eosinophilia and systemic symptom (DRESS), cholelithiasis, and breast cancer occurred with spesolimab. RELEVANCE TO PATIENT CARE AND CLINICAL PRACTICE IN COMPARISON TO EXISTING DRUGS: Spesolimab is a first-in-class IL-36 monoclonal antibody receptor antagonist approved for the treatment of acute GPP flares. It is a safe and effective therapeutic agent in preventing future GPP flares, with no current comparator trials with other GPP agents. CONCLUSION: Spesolimab is a safe and effective treatment for acute GPP flares in adults. Future clinical trials can establish safety and efficacy compared with other agents.

Retained foreign objects after routine cataract surgery: a systematic review.

PURPOSE: Retained foreign objects (RFOs) can place patients undergoing cataract surgery at risk for significant vision-threatening complications. In this systematic review, we examine the characteristics, clinical outcomes, and management of RFOs originating from surgical instruments or the surgical field after routine cataract surgery. METHODS: Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, we searched five databases in June 2023. The inclusion criteria were peer-reviewed, full-text, English-language articles describing RFOs after routine cataract surgery. Studies that described non-routine cataract surgeries, patients with a history of ocular trauma, or organic RFOs were excluded. Two investigators independently extracted data and appraised the methodological quality of each study using Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE). RESULTS: Twenty-eight studies were included in our qualitative synthesis describing metal, fiber, and plastic RFOs. Typically, the RFOs were detected during surgery or slit-lamp examination. Presentations of patients with metal or fiber RFOs varied, with some being asymptomatic. Patients with plastic RFOs were usually symptomatic, often with decreased visual acuity and/or anterior chamber inflammation. Metal RFOs may have originated from metal fatigue from prolonged instrument usage and contact between surgical instruments, fiber RFOs from surgical wipes and gauzes, and plastic RFOs from instrument wrapping and intraocular lens defects. Factors such as location, biocompatibility, and secondary intraocular inflammation influenced the decision to surgically remove RFOs. Following surgical removal, the signs and symptoms resolved in most patients with RFOs. The studies' GRADE ratings indicated limitations in risk of bias and imprecision. CONCLUSION: The presentation and management of RFOs varied depending on the type of material. To prevent RFOs, clinicians should carefully inspect surgical instruments and packs and use fiber-free wipes, towels, and gauzes. Future studies should investigate the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of different RFO prevention strategies.

Treating Hepatitis C in Individuals With Previous Incarceration: The Veterans Health Administration, 2012-2019.

To determine whether the Veterans Health Administration's (VHA) hepatitis C (HCV) treatment campaign reached marginalized populations, we compared HCV care by previous incarceration status with Veterans Aging Cohort Study data. Of those with and those without previous incarceration, respectively, 40% and 21% had detectable HCV, 59% and 65% underwent treatment (P = .07); 92% and 94% of those who completed treatment achieved sustained virologic response. The VHA HCV treatment effort was successful and other systems should replicate those efforts. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(2):162-165. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.307152).

The sleep justice study - a prospective cohort study assessing sleep as a cardiometabolic risk factor after incarceration: a protocol paper.

BACKGROUND: An estimated 11 million individuals are released from U.S. jails and prisons each year. Individuals with a history of incarceration have higher rates of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and mortality compared to the general population, especially in the weeks following release from carceral facilities. Healthy sleep, associated with cardiovascular health, is an underexplored factor in the epidemiology of CVD in this population. Incarcerated people may have unique individual, environmental, and institutional policy-level reasons for being sleep deficient. The social and physical environment within carceral facilities and post-release housing may synergistically affect sleep, creating disparities in sleep and cardiovascular health. Since carceral facilities disproportionately house poor and minoritized groups, population-specific risk factors that impact sleep may also contribute to inequities in cardiovascular outcomes. METHODS: This study is ancillary to an ongoing prospective cohort recruiting 500 individuals with known cardiovascular risk factors within three months of release from incarceration, the Justice-Involved Individuals Cardiovascular Disease Epidemiology (JUSTICE) study. The Sleep Justice study will measure sleep health among participants at baseline and six months using three validated surveys: the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), the STOP-Bang, and the Brief Index of Sleep Control. In a subsample of 100 individuals, we will assess sleep over the course of one week using wrist actigraphy, a validated objective measure of sleep that collects data on rest-activity patterns, sleep, and ambient light levels. Using this data, we will estimate and compare sleep health and its association with CVD risk factor control in individuals recently released from carceral facilities. DISCUSSION: The incarceration of millions of poor and minoritized groups presents an urgent need to understand how incarceration affects CVD epidemiology. This study will improve our understanding of sleep health among people released from carceral facilities and its potential relationship to CVD risk factor control. Using subjective and objective measures of sleep will allow us to identify unique targets to improve sleep health and mitigate cardiovascular risk in an otherwise understudied population.

Trusted residents and housing assistance to decrease violence exposure in New Haven (TRUE HAVEN): a strengths-based and community-driven stepped-wedge intervention to reduce gun violence.

BACKGROUND: We describe the rationale and study design for "TRUsted rEsidents and Housing Assistance to decrease Violence Exposure in New Haven (TRUE HAVEN)," a prospective type 1 hybrid effectiveness/implementation study of a multi-level intervention using a stepped wedge design. TRUE HAVEN aims to lower rates of community gun violence by fostering the stability, wealth, and well-being of individuals and families directly impacted by incarceration through the provision of stable housing and by breaking the cycle of trauma. DESIGN: TRUE HAVEN is an ongoing, multi-level intervention with three primary components: financial education paired with housing support (individual level), trauma-informed counseling (neighborhood level), and policy changes to address structural racism (city/state level). Six neighborhoods with among the highest rates of gun violence in New Haven, Connecticut, will receive the individual and neighborhood level intervention components sequentially beginning at staggered 6-month steps. Residents of these neighborhoods will be eligible to participate in the housing stability and financial education component if they were recently incarcerated or are family members of currently incarcerated people; participants will receive intense financial education and follow-up for six months and be eligible for special down payment and rental assistance programs. In addition, trusted community members and organization leaders within each target neighborhood will participate in trauma-informed care training sessions to then be able to recognize when their peers are suffering from trauma symptoms, to support these affected peers, and to destigmatize accessing professional mental health services and connect them to these services when needed. Finally, a multi-stakeholder coalition will be convened to address policies that act as barriers to housing stability or accessing mental healthcare. Interventions will be delivered through existing partnerships with community-based organizations and networks. The primary outcome is neighborhood rate of incident gun violence. To inform future implementation and optimize the intervention package as the study progresses, we will use the Learn As You Go approach to optimize and assess the effectiveness of the intervention package on the primary study outcome. DISCUSSION: Results from this protocol will yield novel evidence for whether and how addressing structural racism citywide leads to a reduction in gun violence. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05723614. Registration date: February 01, 2023. Please refer to https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05723614 for public and scientific inquiries.

Association between Endometriosis and Surgical Complications among Benign Hysterectomies.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of endometriosis on perioperative outcomes in patients undergoing hysterectomy for benign disease. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study. SETTING: The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. PATIENTS: A total of 127 556 hysterectomies performed for benign gynecologic indications INTERVENTIONS: Differences in the primary outcomes were compared between patients with and without endometriosis after adjustment for group differences in covariates using inverse probability of treatment weighting approach. MEASURES AND MAIN RESULTS: Of the 127 556 hysterectomies identified, 19 618 (15.4%) had a diagnosis of endometriosis. Patients with endometriosis were younger with a lower prevalence of chronic comorbidities but had higher rates of concurrent pelvic inflammatory disease and previous abdominal operations. The incidence of postoperative complications was higher in patients with endometriosis (9.9% vs 8.1%; odds ratio [OR], 1.25; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.17-1.34). The incidence of 30-day mortality (0.1% vs 0.03%; OR, 1.98; 95% CI, 0.69-5.65) and reoperations (1.50% vs 1.36%; OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.98-1.42) were not different in patients with and without endometriosis. CONCLUSION: Postoperative complications are more likely in hysterectomies involving endometriosis than those without endometriosis, likely owing to anatomic distortion incurring increased surgical complexity. Patients and surgeons should be aware of the increased risk of complications and plan for mitigating these increased risks before and during surgery for suspected endometriosis.

A systematic review of videoconferencing in health professions education: the digital divide revisited in the COVID-19 era.

OBJECTIVES: During the COVID-19 pandemic, educators shifted from traditional lectures to videoconferencing. This systematic review explored the use of videoconferencing as a teaching tool in response to the pandemic as well as issues related to digital equity and inclusion. CONTENT: The review was conducted using the Joanna Briggs Institute for Systematic Reviews methodology and reported using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses 2020 statement. SUMMARY: A total of nine studies met eligibility criteria. The participants in the included studies were medical students from various parts of the world. Technical difficulties and lack of human interactions were identified as barriers to learning through videoconferencing. OUTLOOK: To achieve full success, pedagogical videoconferencing must prioritize digital equity and a universal design for learning. Although useful for maintaining education during the pandemic, in the future, videoconferencing will present challenges related to the digital divide as well as opportunities as a teaching tool for nurse educators globally.

Multiyear Time-Shift Study of Bacteria and Phage Dynamics in the Phyllosphere.

AbstractCoevolution shapes diversity within and among populations but is difficult to study directly. Time-shift experiments, where individuals from one point in time are experimentally challenged against individuals from past, contemporary, and/or future time points, are a powerful tool to measure coevolution. This approach has proven useful both in directly measuring coevolutionary change and in distinguishing among coevolutionary models. However, these data are only as informative as the time window over which they were collected, and inference from shorter coevolutionary windows might conflict with those from longer time periods. Previous time-shift experiments from natural microbial communities of horse chestnut tree leaves uncovered an apparent asymmetry, whereby bacterial hosts were more resistant to bacteriophages from all earlier points in the growing season, while phages were most infective to hosts from only the recent past. Here, we extend the time window over which these infectivity and resistance ranges are observed across years and confirm that the previously observed asymmetry holds over longer timescales. These data suggest that existing coevolutionary theory should be revised to include the possibility of differing models for hosts and their parasites and examined for how such asymmetries might reshape the predicted outcomes of coevolution.

Seizure count forecasting to aid diagnostic testing in epilepsy.

OBJECTIVE: Epilepsy monitoring unit (EMU) admissions are critical for presurgical evaluation of drug-resistant epilepsy but may be nondiagnostic if an insufficient number of seizures are recorded. Seizure forecasting algorithms have shown promise for estimating the likelihood of seizures as a binary event in individual patients, but methods to predict how many seizures will occur remain elusive. Such methods could increase the diagnostic yield of EMU admissions and help patients mitigate seizure-related morbidity. Here, we evaluated the performance of a state-space method that uses prior seizure count data to predict future counts. METHODS: A Bayesian negative-binomial dynamic linear model (DLM) was developed to forecast daily electrographic seizure counts in 19 patients implanted with a responsive neurostimulation (RNS) device. Holdout validation was used to evaluate performance in predicting the number of electrographic seizures for forecast horizons ranging 1-7 days ahead. RESULTS: One-day-ahead prediction of the number of electrographic seizures using a negative-binomial DLM resulted in improvement over chance in 73.1% of time segments compared to a random chance forecaster and remained >50% for forecast horizons of up to 7 days. Superior performance (mean error = .99) was obtained in predicting the number of electrographic seizures in the next day compared to three traditional methods for count forecasting (integer-valued generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model or INGARCH, 1.10; Croston, 1.06; generalized linear autoregressive moving average model or GLARMA, 2.00). Number of electrographic seizures in the preceding day and laterality of electrographic pattern detections had highest predictive value, with greater number of electrographic seizures and RNS magnet swipes in the preceding day associated with a higher number of electrographic seizures the next day. SIGNIFICANCE: This study demonstrates that DLMs can predict the number of electrographic seizures a patient will experience days in advance with above chance accuracy. This study represents an important step toward the translation of seizure forecasting methods into the optimization of EMU admissions.

A prospective cohort study examining exposure to incarceration and cardiovascular disease (Justice-Involved Individuals Cardiovascular Disease Epidemiology - JUSTICE study): a protocol paper.

BACKGROUND: People who have been incarcerated have high rates of cardiovascular risk factors, such as hypertension and smoking, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of hospitalizations and mortality in this population. Despite this, little is known regarding what pathways mediate the association between incarceration exposure and increased rates of CVD morbidity and especially what incarceration specific factors are associated with this risk. The objective of this study is to better understand CVD risk in people exposed to incarceration and the pathways by which accumulate cardiovascular risk over time. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The Justice-Involved Individuals Cardiovascular Disease Epidemiology (JUSTICE) study is a prospective cohort study of individuals released from incarceration with known cardiovascular risk factors. We are recruiting 500 individuals within three months after release from jail/prison. At baseline we are assessing traditional risk factors for CVD, including diet, exercise, and smoking, and exposure to incarceration-related policies, psychosocial stress, and self-efficacy. Cardiovascular risk factors are measured at baseline through point of care testing. We are following these individuals for the 12 months following the index release from incarceration with re-evaluation of psychosocial factors and clinical risk factors every 6 months. Using these data, we will estimate the direct and indirect latent effects of incarceration on cardiovascular risk factors and the paths via which these effects are mediated. We will also model the anticipated 10-year burden of CVD incidence, health care use, and mortality associated with incarceration. DISCUSSION: Our study will identify factors associated with CVD risk factor control among people released from incarceration. Our measurement of incarceration-related exposures, psychosocial factors, and clinical measures of cardiovascular risk will allow for identification of unique targets for intervention to modify CVD risk in this vulnerable population.

Cost savings of a primary care program for individuals recently released from prison: a propensity-matched study.

BACKGROUND: Criminal justice system costs in the United States have exponentially increased over the last decades, and providing health care to individuals released from incarceration is costly. To better understand how to manage costs to state budgets for those who have been incarcerated, we aimed to assess state-level costs of an enhanced primary care program, Transitions Clinic Network (TCN), for chronically-ill and older individuals recently released from prison. METHODS: We linked administrative data from Connecticut Department of Correction, Medicaid, and Department of Mental Health and Addiction Services to identify a propensity matched comparison group and estimate costs of a primary care program serving chronically-ill and older individuals released from incarceration between 2013 and 2016. We matched 94 people released from incarceration who received care at a TCN program to 94 people released from incarceration who did not receive care at TCN program on numerous characteristics. People eligible for TCN program participation were released from incarceration within the prior 6 months and had a chronic health condition or were over the age of 50. We estimated 1) costs associated with the TCN program and 2) costs accrued by Medicaid and the criminal justice system. We evaluated associations between program participation and Medicaid and criminal justice system costs over a 12-month period using bivariate analyses with nonparametric bootstrapping method. RESULTS: The 12-month TCN program operating cost was estimated at $54,394 ($146 per participant per month). Average monthly Medicaid costs per participant were not statistically different between the TCN ($1737 ± $3449) and comparison ($1356 ± $2530) groups. Average monthly criminal justice system costs per participant were significantly lower among TCN group ($733 ± $1130) compared with the matched group ($1276 ± $1738, p < 0.05). We estimate every dollar invested in the TCN program yielded a 12-month return of $2.55 to the state. CONCLUSIONS: Medicaid investments in an enhanced primary care program for individuals returning from incarceration are cost neutral and positively impact state budgets by reducing criminal justice system costs.

Anticipated and Experienced Stigma After Testing Positive for SARS-CoV-2: A Qualitative Study.

INTRODUCTION: Stigma has inhibited public health practitioners' influence during the COVID-19 pandemic. We explore the experienced and anticipated stigma of people affiliated with a large university in the United States, using the Health Stigma and Discrimination Framework. METHODS: We conducted a qualitative secondary substudy of 20 people who tested SARS-CoV-2 positive and 10 who tested negative in the summer of 2020, selected from a study of 3,324 university students and employees. FINDINGS: No participants reported anticipated stigmatization prior to testing positive. However, eight of 20 participants recounted stigma marking (being marked by COVID-19 diagnosis or membership in a "high-risk" group) or manifestations of stigma after testing positive, including feelings of guilt or shame, and concerns about being judged as selfish or irresponsible. Three described being denied services or social interactions as a result of having had COVID-19, long after their infectiousness ended. Participants noted that clear public health messaging must be paired with detailed scientific information, rather than leaving people to resort to non-experts to understand the science. DISCUSSION: Public health messaging designed to mitigate spread of SARS-CoV-2 and protect the community may perpetuate stigma and exacerbate inequities. As a result, people may avoid testing or treatment, mistrust public health messaging, or even use risk-increasing behavior as coping mechanisms. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: Intentional use of language that promotes equity and deters discrimination must be high priority for any COVID-19-related public health messaging. Partnership with community leaders to co-create programs and disseminate messaging is a critical strategy for reducing stigma, especially for historically mistreated groups.