Health impacts of a randomized biomass cookstove intervention in northern Ghana.

BACKGROUND: Household air pollution (HAP) from cooking with solid fuels has adverse health effects. REACCTING (Research on Emissions, Air quality, Climate, and Cooking Technologies in Northern Ghana) was a randomized cookstove intervention study that aimed to determine the effects of two types of "improved" biomass cookstoves on health using self-reported health symptoms and biomarkers of systemic inflammation from dried blood spots for female adult cooks and children, and anthropometric growth measures for children only. METHODS: Two hundred rural households were randomized into four different cookstove groups. Surveys and health measurements were conducted at four time points over a two-year period. Chi-square tests were conducted to determine differences in self-reported health outcomes. Linear mixed models were used to assess the effect of the stoves on inflammation biomarkers in adults and children, and to assess the z-score deviance for the anthropometric data for children. RESULTS: We find some evidence that two biomarkers of oxidative stress and inflammation, serum amyloid A and C-reactive protein, decreased among adult primary cooks in the intervention groups relative to the control group. We do not find detectable impacts for any of the anthropometry variables or self-reported health. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, we conclude that the REACCTING intervention did not substantially improve the health outcomes examined here, likely due to continued use of traditional stoves, lack of evidence of particulate matter emissions reductions from "improved" stoves, and mixed results for HAP exposure reductions. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY: ClinicalTrials.gov (National Institutes of Health); Trial Registration Number: NCT04633135 ; Date of Registration: 11 November 2020 - Retrospectively registered. URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04633135?term=NCT04633135&draw=2&rank=1.

Updated Emission Factors from Diffuse Combustion Sources in Sub-Saharan Africa and Their Effect on Regional Emission Estimates.

Diffuse emission sources outside of kitchen areas are poorly understood, and measurements of their emission factors (EFs) are sparse for regions of sub-Saharan Africa. Thirty-one in-field emission measurements were taken in northern Ghana from combustion sources common to rural regions worldwide. Sources sampled included commercial cooking, trash burning, kerosene lanterns, and diesel generators. EFs were calculated for carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), as well as carbonaceous particulate matter, specifically elemental carbon (EC) and organic carbon (OC). EC and OC emissions were measured from kerosene lighting events (EFEC = 25.1 g/kg-fuel SD = 25.7, EFOC = 9.5 g/kg-fuel SD = 10.0). OC emissions from trash burning events were large and highly variable (EFOC = 38.9 g/kg-fuel SD = 30.5). Combining our results with other recent in-field emission factors for rural Ghana, we explored updated emission estimates for Ghana using a region specific emissions inventory. Large differences are calculated for all updated source emissions, showing a 96% increase in OC and 78% decrease in EC compared to prior estimates for Ghana's emissions. Differences for carbon monoxide were small when averaged across all updated source types (-1%), though the household wood use and trash burning categories individually show large differences.

Improving present day and future estimates of anthropogenic sectoral emissions and the resulting air quality impacts in Africa.

The African continent is undergoing immense social and economic change, particularly regarding population growth and urbanization, where the urban population in Africa is anticipated to increase by a factor of 3 over the next 40 years. To understand the potential health impacts from this demographical shift and design efficient emission mitigation strategies, we used improved Africa-specific emissions that account for inefficient combustion sources for a number of sectors such as transportation, household energy generation, waste burning, and home heating and cooking. When these underrepresented emissions sources are combined with the current estimates of emissions in Africa, ambient particulate matter concentrations from present-day anthropogenic activity contribute to 13 210 annual premature deaths, with the largest contributions (38%) coming from residential emissions. By scaling both the population and the emissions for projected national-scale levels of growth, the predicted health impact grows to approximately 78 986 annual premature deaths by 2030 with 45% now resulting from emissions related to energy combustion. In order to mitigate this resulting increase in premature deaths, three scenarios have been developed which reduce sector-specific future emissions based on prior targets for technological improvements and emission controls in transportation, energy production and residential activities. These targeted potential mitigation strategies can avoid up to 37% of the estimated annual premature deaths by 2030 with the largest opportunity being a reduction of 10 868 annual deaths from switching half of the energy generation in South Africa to renewable technologies.

New Emission Factors and Efficiencies from in-Field Measurements of Traditional and Improved Cookstoves and Their Potential Implications.

Household cooking using solid biomass fuels is a major global health and environmental concern. As part of the Research on Emissions Air quality Climate and Cooking Technologies in Northern Ghana study, we conducted 75 in-field uncontrolled cooking tests designed to assess emissions and efficiency of the Gyapa woodstove, Philips HD4012, threestone fire and coalpot (local charcoal stove). Emission factors (EFs) were calculated for carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), and particulate matter (PM). Moreover, modified combustion (MCE), heat transfer (HTE) and overall thermal efficiencies (OTE) were calculated across a variety of fuel, stove and meal type combinations. Mixed effect models suggest that compared to traditional stove/fuel combinations, the Philips burning wood or charcoal showed significant fuel and energy based EF differences for CO, but no significant PM changes with wood fuel. MCEs were significantly higher for Philips wood and charcoal-burning stoves compared to the threestone fire and coalpot. The Gyapa emitted significantly higher ratios of elemental to organic carbon. Fuel moisture, firepower and MCE fluctuation effects on stove performance were investigated with mixed findings. Results show agreement with other in-field findings and discrepancies with some lab-based findings, with important implications for estimated health and air quality impacts.

Air Quality Impact of Diffuse and Inefficient Combustion Emissions in Africa (DICE-Africa).

Anthropogenic pollution in Africa is dominated by diffuse and inefficient combustion sources, as electricity access is low and motorcycles and outdated cars proliferate. These sources are missing, out-of-date, or misrepresented in state-of-the-science emission inventories. We address these deficiencies with a detailed inventory of Diffuse and Inefficient Combustion Emissions in Africa (DICE-Africa) for 2006 and 2013. Fuelwood for energy is the largest emission source in DICE-Africa, but grows from 2006 to 2013 at a slower rate than charcoal production and use, and gasoline and diesel for motorcycles, cars, and generators. Only kerosene use and gas flaring decline. Increase in emissions from 2006 to 2013 in this work is consistent with trends in satellite observations of formaldehyde and NO2, but much slower than the explosive growth projected with a fuel consumption model. Seasonal biomass burning is considered a large pollution source in Africa, but we estimate comparable emissions of black carbon and higher emissions of nonmethane volatile organic compounds from DICE-Africa. Nitrogen oxide (NOx ≡ NO + NO2) emissions are much lower than from biomass burning. We use GEOS-Chem to estimate that the largest contribution of DICE-Africa to annual mean surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is >5 µg m-3 in populous Nigeria.

The Regional Impacts of Cooking and Heating Emissions on Ambient Air Quality and Disease Burden in China.

Exposure to air pollution is a major risk factor globally and particularly in Asia. A large portion of air pollutants result from residential combustion of solid biomass and coal fuel for cooking and heating. This study presents a regional modeling sensitivity analysis to estimate the impact of residential emissions from cooking and heating activities on the burden of disease at a provincial level in China. Model surface PM2.5 fields are shown to compare well when evaluated against surface air quality measurements. Scenarios run without residential sector and residential heating emissions are used in conjunction with the Global Burden of Disease 2013 framework to calculate the proportion of deaths and disability adjusted life years attributable to PM2.5 exposure from residential emissions. Overall, we estimate that 341 000 (306 000-370 000; 95% confidence interval) premature deaths in China are attributable to residential combustion emissions, approximately a third of the deaths attributable to all ambient PM2.5 pollution, with 159 000 (142 000-172 000) and 182 000 (163 000-197 000) premature deaths from heating and cooking emissions, respectively. Our findings emphasize the need to mitigate emissions from both residential heating and cooking sources to reduce the health impacts of ambient air pollution in China.

Seasonal and Diurnal Air Pollution from Residential Cooking and Space Heating in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau.

Residential combustion of solid fuel is a major source of air pollution. In regions where space heating and cooking occur at the same time and using the same stoves and fuels, evaluating air-pollution patterns for household-energy-use scenarios with and without heating is essential to energy intervention design and estimation of its population health impacts as well as the development of residential emission inventories and air-quality models. We measured continuous and 48 h integrated indoor PM2.5 concentrations over 221 and 203 household-days and outdoor PM2.5 concentrations on a subset of those days (in summer and winter, respectively) in 204 households in the eastern Tibetan Plateau that burned biomass in traditional stoves and open fires. Using continuous indoor PM2.5 concentrations, we estimated mean daily hours of combustion activity, which increased from 5.4 h per day (95% CI: 5.0, 5.8) in summer to 8.9 h per day (95% CI: 8.1, 9.7) in winter, and effective air-exchange rates, which decreased from 18 ± 9 h(-1) in summer to 15 ± 7 h(-1) in winter. Indoor geometric-mean 48 h PM2.5 concentrations were over two times higher in winter (252 µg/m(3); 95% CI: 215, 295) than in summer (101 µg/m(3); 95%: 91, 112), whereas outdoor PM2.5 levels had little seasonal variability.

"What We Breathe Impacts Our Health: Improving Understanding of the Link between Air Pollution and Health".

Air pollution contributes to the premature deaths of millions of people each year around the world, and air quality problems are growing in many developing nations. While past policy efforts have succeeded in reducing particulate matter and trace gases in North America and Europe, adverse health effects are found at even these lower levels of air pollution. Future policy actions will benefit from improved understanding of the interactions and health effects of different chemical species and source categories. Achieving this new understanding requires air pollution scientists and engineers to work increasingly closely with health scientists. In particular, research is needed to better understand the chemical and physical properties of complex air pollutant mixtures, and to use new observations provided by satellites, advanced in situ measurement techniques, and distributed micro monitoring networks, coupled with models, to better characterize air pollution exposure for epidemiological and toxicological research, and to better quantify the effects of specific source sectors and mitigation strategies.

Research on Emissions, Air quality, Climate, and Cooking Technologies in Northern Ghana (REACCTING): study rationale and protocol.

BACKGROUND: Cooking over open fires using solid fuels is both common practice throughout much of the world and widely recognized to contribute to human health, environmental, and social problems. The public health burden of household air pollution includes an estimated four million premature deaths each year. To be effective and generate useful insight into potential solutions, cookstove intervention studies must select cooking technologies that are appropriate for local socioeconomic conditions and cooking culture, and include interdisciplinary measurement strategies along a continuum of outcomes. METHODS/DESIGN: REACCTING (Research on Emissions, Air quality, Climate, and Cooking Technologies in Northern Ghana) is an ongoing interdisciplinary randomized cookstove intervention study in the Kassena-Nankana District of Northern Ghana. The study tests two types of biomass burning stoves that have the potential to meet local cooking needs and represent different "rungs" in the cookstove technology ladder: a locally-made low-tech rocket stove and the imported, highly efficient Philips gasifier stove. Intervention households were randomized into four different groups, three of which received different combinations of two improved stoves, while the fourth group serves as a control for the duration of the study. Diverse measurements assess different points along the causal chain linking the intervention to final outcomes of interest. We assess stove use and cooking behavior, cooking emissions, household air pollution and personal exposure, health burden, and local to regional air quality. Integrated analysis and modeling will tackle a range of interdisciplinary science questions, including examining ambient exposures among the regional population, assessing how those exposures might change with different technologies and behaviors, and estimating the comparative impact of local behavior and technological changes versus regional climate variability and change on local air quality and health outcomes. DISCUSSION: REACCTING is well-poised to generate useful data on the impact of a cookstove intervention on a wide range of outcomes. By comparing different technologies side by side and employing an interdisciplinary approach to study this issue from multiple perspectives, this study may help to inform future efforts to improve health and quality of life for populations currently relying on open fires for their cooking needs.

Global emissions of trace gases, particulate matter, and hazardous air pollutants from open burning of domestic waste.

The open burning of waste, whether at individual residences, businesses, or dump sites, is a large source of air pollutants. These emissions, however, are not included in many current emission inventories used for chemistry and climate modeling applications. This paper presents the first comprehensive and consistent estimates of the global emissions of greenhouse gases, particulate matter, reactive trace gases, and toxic compounds from open waste burning. Global emissions of CO2 from open waste burning are relatively small compared to total anthropogenic CO2; however, regional CO2 emissions, particularly in many developing countries in Asia and Africa, are substantial. Further, emissions of reactive trace gases and particulate matter from open waste burning are more significant on regional scales. For example, the emissions of PM10 from open domestic waste burning in China is equivalent to 22% of China's total reported anthropogenic PM10 emissions. The results of the emissions model presented here suggest that emissions of many air pollutants are significantly underestimated in current inventories because open waste burning is not included, consistent with studies that compare model results with available observations.

Projected effects of climate and development on California wildfire emissions through 2100.

Changing climatic conditions are influencing large wildfire frequency, a globally widespread disturbance that affects both human and natural systems. Understanding how climate change, population growth, and development patterns will affect the area burned by and emissions from wildfires and how populations will in turn be exposed to emissions is critical for climate change adaptation and mitigation planning. We quantified the effects of a range of population growth and development patterns in California on emission projections from large wildfires under six future climate scenarios. Here we show that end-of-century wildfire emissions are projected to increase by 19-101% (median increase 56%) above the baseline period (1961-1990) in California for a medium-high temperature scenario, with the largest emissions increases concentrated in northern California. In contrast to other measures of wildfire impacts previously studied (e.g., structural loss), projected population growth and development patterns are unlikely to substantially influence the amount of projected statewide wildfire emissions. However, increases in wildfire emissions due to climate change may have detrimental impacts on air quality and, combined with a growing population, may result in increased population exposure to unhealthy air pollutants.

Identifying PM2.5 and PM0.1 sources for epidemiological studies in California.

The University of California-Davis_Primary (UCD_P) model was applied to simultaneously track ∼ 900 source contributions to primary particulate matter (PM) in California for seven continuous years (January 1st, 2000 to December 31st, 2006). Predicted source contributions to primary PM2.5 mass, PM1.8 elemental carbon (EC), PM1.8 organic carbon (OC), PM0.1 EC, and PM0.1 OC were in general agreement with the results from previous source apportionment studies using receptor-based techniques. All sources were further subjected to a constraint check based on model performance for PM trace elemental composition. A total of 151 PM2.5 sources and 71 PM0.1 sources contained PM elements that were predicted at concentrations in general agreement with measured values at nearby monitoring sites. Significant spatial heterogeneity was predicted among the 151 PM2.5 and 71 PM0.1 source concentrations, and significantly different seasonal profiles were predicted for PM2.5 and PM0.1 in central California vs southern California. Population-weighted concentrations of PM emitted from various sources calculated using the UCD_P model spatial information differed from the central monitor estimates by up to 77% for primary PM2.5 mass and 148% for PM2.5 EC because the central monitor concentration is not representative of exposure for nearby population. The results from the UCD_P model provide enhanced source apportionment information for epidemiological studies to examine the relationship between health effects and concentrations of primary PM from individual sources.

Predicting primary PM2.5 and PM0.1 trace composition for epidemiological studies in California.

The University of California-Davis_Primary (UCD_P) chemical transport model was developed and applied to compute the primary airborne particulate matter (PM) trace chemical concentrations from ∼ 900 sources in California through a simulation of atmospheric emissions, transport, dry deposition and wet deposition for a 7-year period (2000-2006) with results saved at daily time resolution. A comprehensive comparison between monthly average model results and available measurements yielded Pearson correlation coefficients (R) ≥ 0.8 at ≥ 5 sites (out of a total of eight) for elemental carbon (EC) and nine trace elements: potassium, chromium, zinc, iron, titanium, arsenic, calcium, manganese, and strontium in the PM2.5 size fraction. Longer averaging time increased the overall R for PM2.5 EC from 0.89 (1 day) to 0.94 (1 month), and increased the number of species with strong correlations at individual sites. Predicted PM0.1 mass and PM0.1 EC exhibited excellent agreement with measurements (R = 0.92 and 0.94, respectively). The additional temporal and spatial information in the UCD_P model predictions produced population exposure estimates for PM2.5 and PM0.1 that differed from traditional exposure estimates based on information at monitoring locations in California Metropolitan Statistical Areas, with a maximum divergence of 58% at Bakersfield. The UCD_P model has the potential to improve exposure estimates in epidemiology studies of PM trace chemical components and health.

Seasonal variability in bacterial and fungal diversity of the near-surface atmosphere.

Bacteria and fungi are ubiquitous throughout the Earth's lower atmosphere where they often represent an important component of atmospheric aerosols with the potential to impact human health and atmospheric dynamics. However, the diversity, composition, and spatiotemporal dynamics of these airborne microbes remain poorly understood. We performed a comprehensive analysis of airborne microbes across two aerosol size fractions at urban and rural sites in the Colorado Front Range over a 14-month period. Coarse (PM10-2.5) and fine (PM2.5) particulate matter samples were collected at weekly intervals with both bacterial and fungal diversity assessed via high-throughput sequencing. The diversity and composition of the airborne communities varied across the sites, between the two size fractions, and over time. Bacteria were the dominant type of bioaerosol in the collected air samples, while fungi and plants (pollen) made up the remainder, with the relative abundances of fungi peaking during the spring and summer months. As bacteria made up the majority of bioaerosol particles, we analyzed the bacterial communities in greater detail using a bacterial-specific 16S rRNA gene sequencing approach. Overall, bacterial taxonomic richness and the relative abundances of specific bacterial taxa exhibited significant patterns of seasonality. Likewise, airborne bacterial communities varied significantly between sites and across aerosol size fractions. Source-tracking analyses indicate that soils and leaves represented important sources of bacteria to the near-surface atmosphere across all locations with cow fecal bacteria also representing an important source of bioaerosols at the more rural sites during early fall and early spring. Together, these data suggest that a complex set of environmental factors, including changes in atmospheric conditions and shifts in the relative importance of available microbial sources, act to control the composition of microbial bioaerosols in rural and urban environments.

Aerosols from fires: an examination of the effects on ozone photochemistry in the Western United States.

This study presents a first attempt to investigate the roles of fire aerosols in ozone (O(3)) photochemistry using an online coupled meteorology-chemistry model, the Weather Research and Foresting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). Four 1-month WRF-Chem simulations for August 2007, with and without fire emissions, were carried out to assess the sensitivity of O(3) predictions to the emissions and subsequent radiative feedbacks associated with large-scale fires in the Western United States (U.S.). Results show that decreases in planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) resulting from the radiative effects of fire aerosols and increases in emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from the fires tend to increase modeled O(3) concentrations near the source. Reductions in downward shortwave radiation reaching the surface and surface temperature due to fire aerosols cause decreases in biogenic isoprene emissions and J(NO(2)) photolysis rates, resulting in reductions in O(3) concentrations by as much as 15%. Thus, the results presented in this study imply that considering the radiative effects of fire aerosols may reduce O(3) overestimation by traditional photochemical models that do not consider fire-induced changes in meteorology; implementation of coupled meteorology-chemistry models are required to simulate the atmospheric chemistry impacted by large-scale fires.

Evaluating the effects of climate change on summertime ozone using a relative response factor approach for policymakers.

UNLABELLED: The impact of climate change on surface-level ozone is examined through a multiscale modeling effort that linked global and regional climate models to drive air quality model simulations. Results are quantified in terms of the relative response factor (RRF(E)), which estimates the relative change in peak ozone concentration for a given change in pollutant emissions (the subscript E is added to RRF to remind the reader that the RRF is due to emission changes only). A matrix of model simulations was conducted to examine the individual and combined effects offuture anthropogenic emissions, biogenic emissions, and climate on the RRF(E). For each member in the matrix of simulations the warmest and coolest summers were modeled for the present-day (1995-2004) and future (2045-2054) decades. A climate adjustment factor (CAF(C) or CAF(CB) when biogenic emissions are allowed to change with the future climate) was defined as the ratio of the average daily maximum 8-hr ozone simulated under a future climate to that simulated under the present-day climate, and a climate-adjusted RRF(EC) was calculated (RRF(EC) = RRF(E) x CAF(C)). In general, RRF(EC) > RRF(E), which suggests additional emission controls will be required to achieve the same reduction in ozone that would have been achieved in the absence of climate change. Changes in biogenic emissions generally have a smaller impact on the RRF(E) than does future climate change itself The direction of the biogenic effect appears closely linked to organic-nitrate chemistry and whether ozone formation is limited by volatile organic compounds (VOC) or oxides of nitrogen (NO(x) = NO + NO2). Regions that are generally NO(x) limited show a decrease in ozone and RRF(EC), while VOC-limited regions show an increase in ozone and RRF(EC). Comparing results to a previous study using different climate assumptions and models showed large variability in the CAF(CB). IMPLICATIONS: We present a methodology for adjusting the RRF to account for the influence of climate change on ozone. The findings of this work suggest that in some geographic regions, climate change has the potential to negate decreases in surface ozone concentrations that would otherwise be achieved through ozone mitigation strategies. In regions of high biogenic VOC emissions relative to anthropogenic NO(x) emissions, the impact of climate change is somewhat reduced, while the opposite is true in regions of high anthropogenic NO(x) emissions relative to biogenic VOC emissions. Further, different future climate realizations are shown to impact ozone in different ways.

A Case-Crossover Analysis of Indoor Heat Exposure on Mortality and Hospitalizations among the Elderly in Houston, Texas.

BACKGROUND: Despite the substantial role indoor exposure has played in heat wave-related mortality, few epidemiological studies have examined the health effects of exposure to indoor heat. As a result, knowledge gaps regarding indoor heat-health thresholds, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity persist. OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the role of indoor heat exposure on mortality and morbidity among the elderly (≥65 years of age) in Houston, Texas. METHODS: Mortality and emergency hospital admission data were obtained through the Texas Department of State Health Services. Summer indoor heat exposure was modeled at the U.S. Census block group (CBG) level using building energy models, outdoor weather data, and building characteristic data. Indoor heat-health associations were examined using time-stratified case-crossover models, controlling for temporal trends and meteorology, and matching on CBG of residence, year, month, and weekday of the adverse health event. Separate models were fitted for three indoor exposure metrics, for individual lag days 0-6, and for 3-d moving averages (lag 0-2). Effect measure modification was explored via stratification on individual- and area-level vulnerability factors. RESULTS: We estimated positive associations between short-term changes in indoor heat exposure and cause-specific mortality and morbidity [e.g., circulatory deaths, odds ratio per 5°C increase=1.16 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.30)]. Associations were generally positive for earlier lag periods and weaker across later lag periods. Stratified analyses suggest stronger associations between indoor heat and emergency hospital admissions among African Americans compared with Whites. DISCUSSION: Findings suggest excess mortality among certain elderly populations in Houston who are likely exposed to high indoor heat. We developed a novel methodology to estimate indoor heat exposure that can be adapted to other U.S. LOCATIONS: In locations with high air conditioning prevalence, simplified modeling approaches may adequately account for indoor heat exposure in vulnerable neighborhoods. Accounting for indoor heat exposure may improve the estimation of the total impact of heat on health. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP6340.

Characterization of airborne microbial communities at a high-elevation site and their potential to act as atmospheric ice nuclei.

Bacteria and fungi are ubiquitous in the atmosphere. The diversity and abundance of airborne microbes may be strongly influenced by atmospheric conditions or even influence atmospheric conditions themselves by acting as ice nucleators. However, few comprehensive studies have described the diversity and dynamics of airborne bacteria and fungi based on culture-independent techniques. We document atmospheric microbial abundance, community composition, and ice nucleation at a high-elevation site in northwestern Colorado. We used a standard small-subunit rRNA gene Sanger sequencing approach for total microbial community analysis and a bacteria-specific 16S rRNA bar-coded pyrosequencing approach (4,864 sequences total). During the 2-week collection period, total microbial abundances were relatively constant, ranging from 9.6 x 10(5) to 6.6 x 10(6) cells m(-3) of air, and the diversity and composition of the airborne microbial communities were also relatively static. Bacteria and fungi were nearly equivalent, and members of the proteobacterial groups Burkholderiales and Moraxellaceae (particularly the genus Psychrobacter) were dominant. These taxa were not always the most abundant in freshly fallen snow samples collected at this site. Although there was minimal variability in microbial abundances and composition within the atmosphere, the number of biological ice nuclei increased significantly during periods of high relative humidity. However, these changes in ice nuclei numbers were not associated with changes in the relative abundances of the most commonly studied ice-nucleating bacteria.

Vegetation-fire feedback reduces projected area burned under climate change.

Climate influences vegetation directly and through climate-mediated disturbance processes, such as wildfire. Temperature and area burned are positively associated, conditional on availability of vegetation to burn. Fire is a self-limiting process that is influenced by productivity. Yet, many fire projections assume sufficient vegetation to support fire, with substantial implications for carbon (C) dynamics and emissions. We simulated forest dynamics under projected climate and wildfire for the Sierra Nevada, accounting for climate effects on fuel flammability (static) and climate and prior fire effects on fuel availability and flammability (dynamic). We show that compared to climate effects on flammability alone, accounting for the interaction of prior fires and climate on fuel availability and flammability moderates the projected increase in area burned by 14.3%. This reduces predicted increases in area-weighted median cumulative emissions by 38.3 Tg carbon dioxide (CO2) and 0.6 Tg particulate matter (PM1), or 12.9% and 11.5%, respectively. Our results demonstrate that after correcting for potential over-estimates of the effects of climate-driven increases in area burned, California is likely to continue facing significant wildfire and air quality challenges with on-going climate change.

Application of geostatistical approaches to predict the spatio-temporal distribution of summer ozone in Houston, Texas.

Mitigation of adverse effects of air pollution requires understanding underlying exposures, such as ambient ozone concentrations. Geostatistical approaches were employed to analyze temporal trends and estimate spatial patterns of summertime ozone concentrations for Houston, Texas, based on hourly ozone observations obtained from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. We systematically assess the accuracy of several spatial interpolation methods, comparing inverse distance weighting, simple kriging, ordinary kriging, and universal kriging methods utilizing the hourly ozone observations and meteorological measurements from monitoring sites. Model uncertainty was assessed by leave-one-out cross-validation. Kriging methods performed better, showing greater consistency in the generated surfaces, fewer interpolation errors, and lower biases. Universal kriging did not significantly improve the interpolation results compared to ordinary kriging, and thus ordinary kriging was determined to be the optimal method, striking a balance between accuracy and simplicity. The resulting spatial patterns indicate that the more industrialized areas east and northeast of Houston exhibit the highest summertime ozone concentrations. Estimated daily maximum 8 h ozone concentration fields generated will be used to inform research on population health risks from exposure to surface ozone in Houston.