Inequalities in full immunization coverage: trends in low- and middle-income countries.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate disparities in full immunization coverage across and within 86 low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: In May 2015, using data from the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, we investigated inequalities in full immunization coverage - i.e. one dose of bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccine, one dose of measles vaccine, three doses of vaccine against diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus and three doses of polio vaccine - in 86 low- or middle-income countries. We then investigated temporal trends in the level and inequality of such coverage in eight of the countries. FINDINGS: In each of the World Health Organization's regions, it appeared that about 56-69% of eligible children in the low- and middle-income countries had received full immunization. However, within each region, the mean recorded level of such coverage varied greatly. In the African Region, for example, it varied from 11.4% in Chad to 90.3% in Rwanda. We detected pro-rich inequality in such coverage in 45 of the 83 countries for which the relevant data were available and pro-urban inequality in 35 of the 86 study countries. Among the countries in which we investigated coverage trends, Madagascar and Mozambique appeared to have made the greatest progress in improving levels of full immunization coverage over the last two decades, particularly among the poorest quintiles of their populations. CONCLUSION: Most low- and middle-income countries are affected by pro-rich and pro-urban inequalities in full immunization coverage that are not apparent when only national mean values of such coverage are reported.

Tale of 22 cities: utilisation patterns and content of maternal care in large African cities.

INTRODUCTION: Globally, the majority of births happen in urban areas. Ensuring that women and their newborns benefit from a complete package of high-quality care during pregnancy, childbirth and the postnatal period present specific challenges in large cities. We examine health service utilisation and content of care along the maternal continuum of care (CoC) in 22 large African cities. METHODS: We analysed data from the most recent Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) since 2013 in any African country with at least one city of ≥1 million inhabitants in 2015. Women with live births from survey clusters in the most populous city per country were identified. We analysed 17 indicators capturing utilisation, sector and level of health facilities and content of three maternal care services: antenatal care (ANC), childbirth care and postnatal care (PNC), and a composite indicator capturing completion of the maternal CoC. We developed a categorisation of cities according to performance on utilisation and content within maternal CoC. RESULTS: The study sample included 25 326 live births reported by 19 217 women. Heterogeneity in the performance in the three services was observed across cities and across the three services within cities. ANC utilisation was high (>85%); facility-based childbirth and PNC ranged widely, 77%-99% and 29%-94%, respectively. Most cities showed inconsistent levels of utilisation and content across the maternal CoC, Cotonou and Accra showed relatively best and Nairobi and Ndjamena worst performance. CONCLUSION: This exploratory analysis showed that many DHS can be analysed on the level of large African cities to provide actionable information about the utilisation and content of the three maternal health services. Our comparative analysis of 22 cities and proposed typology of best and worst-performing cities can provide a starting point for extracting lessons learnt and addressing critical gaps in maternal health in rapidly urbanising contexts.

Predicted Norovirus Resurgence in 2021-2022 Due to the Relaxation of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Associated with COVID-19 Restrictions in England: A Mathematical Modelling Study.

BACKGROUND: To reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the Government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norovirus disease incidence is likely to look like upon lifting these restrictions. METHODS: Here we use a mathematical model of norovirus fitted to community incidence data in England to project forward expected incidence based on contact surveys that have been collected throughout 2020-2021. RESULTS: We report that susceptibility to norovirus infection has likely increased between March 2020 to mid-2021. Depending upon assumptions of future contact patterns incidence of norovirus that is similar to pre-pandemic levels or an increase beyond what has been previously reported is likely to occur once restrictions are lifted. Should adult contact patterns return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels the incidence of norovirus will be similar to previous years. If contact patterns return to pre-pandemic levels there is a potential for the expected annual incidence to be up to 2-fold larger than in a typical year. The age-specific incidence is similar across all ages. CONCLUSIONS: Continued national surveillance for endemic diseases such as norovirus will be essential after NPIs are lifted to allow healthcare services to adequately prepare for a potential increase in cases and hospital pressures beyond what is typically experienced.

Current realities versus theoretical optima: quantifying efficiency and sociospatial equity of travel time to hospitals in low-income and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Having hospitals located in urban areas where people, resources and wealth concentrate is efficient, but leaves long travel times for the rural and often poorer population and goes against the equity objective. We aimed to assess the current efficiency (mean travel time in the whole population) and equity (difference in travel time between the poorest and least poor deciles) of hospital care provision in four sub-Saharan African countries, and to compare them against their theoretical optima. METHODS: We overlaid the locations of 480, 115, 3787 and 256 hospitals in Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria and Tanzania, respectively, with high-resolution maps of travel time, population and wealth to estimate current efficiency and equity. To identify the potential optima, we simulated 7500 sets of hospitals locations based on various population and wealth weightings and percentage reallocations for each country. RESULTS: The average travel time ranged from 38 to 79 min across countries, and the respective optima were mildly shorter (<15%). The observed equity gaps were wider than their optima. Compared with the best case scenarios, differences in the equity gaps varied from 7% in Tanzania to 77% in Nigeria. In Kenya, Malawi and Tanzania, narrower equity gaps without increasing average travel time were seen from simulations that held 75%-90% of hospitals at their current locations. INTERPRETATIONS: Current hospital distribution in the four sub-Saharan African countries could be considered efficient. Simultaneous gains in efficiency and equity do not necessarily require a fundamental redesign of the healthcare system. Our analytical approach is readily extendible to aid decision support in adding and upgrading existing hospitals.

Who pays and how much? A cross-sectional study of out-of-pocket payment for modern contraception in Kenya.

OBJECTIVES: Out-of-pocket (OOP) payment for modern contraception is an understudied component of healthcare financing in countries like Kenya, where wealth gradients in met need have prompted efforts to expand access to free contraception. This study aims to examine whether, among public sector providers, the poor are more likely to receive free contraception and to compare how OOP payment for injectables and implants-two popular methods-differs by public/private provider type and user's sociodemographic characteristics. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Secondary analyses of nationally representative, cross-sectional household data from the 2014 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey. Respondents were women of reproductive age (15-49 years). The sample comprised 5717 current modern contraception users, including 2691 injectable and 1073 implant users with non-missing expenditure values. MAIN OUTCOME: Respondent's self-reported source and payment to obtain their current modern contraceptive method. METHODS: We used multivariable logistic regression to examine predictors of free public sector contraception and compared average expenditure for injectable and implant. Quintile ratios examined progressivity of non-zero expenditure by wealth. RESULTS: Half of public sector users reported free contraception; this varied considerably by method and region. Users of implants, condoms, pills and intrauterine devices were all more likely to report receiving their method for free (p<0.001) compared with injectable users. The poorest were as likely to pay for contraception as the wealthiest users at public providers (OR: 1.10, 95% CI: 0.64 to 1.91). Across all providers, among users with non-zero expenditure, injectable and implant users reported a mean OOP payment of Kenyan shillings (KES) 80 (US$0.91), 95% CI: KES 78 to 82 and KES 378 (US$4.31), 95% CI: KES 327 to 429, respectively. In the public sector, expenditure was pro-poor for injectable users yet weakly pro-rich for implant users. CONCLUSIONS: More attention is needed to targeting subsidies to the poorest and ensuring government facilities are equipped to cope with lost user fee revenue.

Caesarean section provision and readiness in Tanzania: analysis of cross-sectional surveys of women and health facilities over time.

OBJECTIVES: To describe trends in caesarean sections and facilities performing caesareans over time in Tanzania and examine the readiness of such facilities in terms of infrastructure, equipment and staffing. DESIGN: Nationally representative, repeated cross-sectional surveys of women and health facilities. SETTING: Tanzania. PARTICIPANTS: Women of reproductive age and health facility staff. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Population-based caesarean rate, absolute annual number of caesareans, percentage of facilities reporting to perform caesareans and three readiness indicators for safe caesarean care: availability of consistent electricity, 24 hour schedule for caesarean and anaesthesia providers, and availability of all general anaesthesia equipment. RESULTS: The caesarean rate in Tanzania increased threefold from 2% in 1996 to 6% in 2015-16, while the total number of births increased by 60%. As a result, the absolute number of caesareans increased almost fivefold to 120 000 caesareans per year. The main mechanism sustaining the increase in caesareans was the doubling of median caesarean volume among public hospitals, from 17 caesareans per month in 2006 to 35 in 2014-15. The number of facilities performing caesareans increased only modestly over the same period. Less than half (43%) of caesareans in Tanzania in 2014-15 were performed in facilities meeting the three readiness indicators. Consistent electricity was widely available, and 24 hour schedules for caesarean and (less systematically) anaesthesia providers were observed in most facilities; however, the availability of all general anaesthesia equipment was the least commonly reported indicator, present in only 44% of all facilities (34% of public hospitals). CONCLUSIONS: Given the rising trend in numbers of caesareans, urgent improvements in the availability of general anaesthesia equipment and trained anaesthesia staff should be made to ensure the safety of caesareans. Initial efforts should focus on improving anaesthesia provision in public and faith-based organisation hospitals, which together perform more than 90% of all caesareans in Tanzania.