Probabilistic inference of epigenetic age acceleration from cellular dynamics.

The emergence of epigenetic predictors was a pivotal moment in geroscience, propelling the measurement and concept of biological aging into a quantitative era; however, while current epigenetic clocks show strong predictive power, they are data-driven in nature and are not based on the underlying biological mechanisms driving methylation dynamics. We show that predictions of these clocks are susceptible to several confounding non-age-related phenomena that make interpretation of these estimates and associations difficult. To address these limitations, we developed a probabilistic model describing methylation transitions at the cellular level. Our approach reveals two measurable components, acceleration and bias, which directly reflect perturbations of the underlying cellular dynamics. Acceleration is the proportional increase in the speed of methylation transitions across CpG sites, whereas bias corresponds to global changes in methylation levels. Using data from 15,900 participants from the Generation Scotland study, we develop a robust inference framework and show that these are two distinct processes confounding current epigenetic predictors. Our results show improved associations of acceleration and bias with physiological traits known to impact healthy aging, such as smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively. Furthermore, a genome-wide association study of epigenetic age acceleration identified seven genomic loci.

Prioritisation of Candidate Genes Underpinning COVID-19 Host Genetic Traits Based on High-Resolution 3D Chromosomal Topology.

Genetic variants showing associations with specific biological traits and diseases detected by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) commonly map to non-coding DNA regulatory regions. Many of these regions are located considerable distances away from the genes they regulate and come into their proximity through 3D chromosomal interactions. We previously developed COGS, a statistical pipeline for linking GWAS variants with their putative target genes based on 3D chromosomal interaction data arising from high-resolution assays such as Promoter Capture Hi-C (PCHi-C). Here, we applied COGS to COVID-19 Host Genetic Consortium (HGI) GWAS meta-analysis data on COVID-19 susceptibility and severity using our previously generated PCHi-C results in 17 human primary cell types and SARS-CoV-2-infected lung carcinoma cells. We prioritise 251 genes putatively associated with these traits, including 16 out of 47 genes highlighted by the GWAS meta-analysis authors. The prioritised genes are expressed in a broad array of tissues, including, but not limited to, blood and brain cells, and are enriched for genes involved in the inflammatory response to viral infection. Our prioritised genes and pathways, in conjunction with results from other prioritisation approaches and targeted validation experiments, will aid in the understanding of COVID-19 pathology, paving the way for novel treatments.