Hotter and drier climate made the Mediterranean Europe and Northern Africa region a shrubbier landscape.

A shift to higher temperatures has left the Mediterranean Europe and Northern Africa (MENA) region more vulnerable to drought and land degradation. We used MODIS LAI (leaf area index) and GPP (gross primary production) deficits, the differences between actual and historical-maximum values, to describe vegetation structural and functional changes and consequential landcover change in response to changing climate conditions during 2001-2019 in the area (20° W-45° E, 20° N-45° N). We found that 1) the vegetation responses varied significantly among eight landcover types with the decreasing importance: forests, savannas, a mosaic of cropland and natural vegetation (CNV), croplands, permanent wetlands, urban land, grasslands, and shrublands, each with distinctive yet overlapping signatures over the ranges of the climate conditions considered. 2) Forests, occupying the coolest and wettest niche, showed the strongest response to severe drought with a lag of 1-3 years and a legacy effect for 10 years. Shrubs, occupying the hottest and driest niche, were the most resilient under a hotter and drier climate. 3) The total areas of savannas and CNV increased by 394,994 and 404,592 km2, respectively, while that of forests decreased by 33,091 km2. Shrublands extended by 287,134 km2 while grasslands and croplands retreated by 490,644 and 225,263 km2. The area of wetlands increased by 49,192 km2, and that of urban land increased by 39,570 km2. A total of 57,649 km2 of barren land became vegetated over the years. Along with higher temperature and more extended period of drought, MENA has evolved towards a shrubbier landscape.

Dynamic responses of tree-ring growth to multiple dimensions of drought.

Droughts, which are characterized by multiple dimensions including frequency, duration, severity, and onset timing, can impact tree stem radial growth profoundly. Different dimensions of drought influence tree stem radial growth independently or jointly, which makes the development of accurate predictions a formidable challenge. Measurement-based tree-ring data have obvious advantages for studying the drought responses of trees. Here, we explored the use of abundant tree-ring records for quantifying regional response patterns to key dimensions of drought. Specifically, we designed a series of regional-scaled "natural experiments," based on 357 tree-ring chronologies from Southwest USA and location-matched monthly water balance anomalies, to reveal how tree-ring responds to each dimension of drought. Our results showed that tree-ring was affected significantly more by the water balance condition in the current hydrological year than that in the prior hydrological year. Within the current hydrological year, increased drought frequency (number of dry months) and duration (maximum number of consecutive dry months) resulted in "cumulative effects" which amplified the impacts of drought on trees and reduced the drought resistance of trees. Drought events that occurred in the pregrowing seasons strongly affected subsequent tree stem radial growth. Both the onset timing and severity of drought increased "legacy effects" on tree stem radial growth, which reduced the drought resilience of trees. These results indicated that the drought impact on trees is a dynamic process: even when the total water deficits are the same, differences among the drought processes could lead to considerably different responses from trees. This study thus provides a conceptual framework and probabilistic patterns of tree-ring growth response to multiple dimensions of drought regimes, which in turn may have a wide range of implications for predictions, uncertainty assessment, and forest management.

The contribution of advective fluxes to net ecosystem exchange in a high-elevation, subalpine forest.

The eddy covariance technique, which is used in the determination of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE), is subject to significant errors when advection that carries CO2 in the mean flow is ignored. We measured horizontal and vertical advective CO2 fluxes at the Niwot Ridge AmeriFlux site (Colorado, USA) using a measurement approach consisting of multiple towers. We observed relatively high rates of both horizontal (F(hadv)) and vertical (F(vadv)) advective fluxes at low surface friction velocities (u(*)) which were associated with downslope katabatic flows. We observed that F(hadv) was confined to a relatively thin layer (0-6 m thick) of subcanopy air that flowed beneath the eddy covariance sensors principally at night, carrying with it respired CO2 from the soil and lower parts of the canopy. The observed F(vadv) came from above the canopy and was presumably due to the convergence of drainage flows at the tower site. The magnitudes of both F(hadv) and F(vadv) were similar, of opposite sign, and increased with decreasing u(*), meaning that they most affected estimates of the total CO2 flux on calm nights with low wind speeds. The mathematical sign, temporal variation and dependence on u(*) of both F(hadv) and F(vadv) were determined by the unique terrain of the Niwot Ridge site. Therefore, the patterns we observed may not be broadly applicable to other sites. We evaluated the influence of advection on the cumulative annual and monthly estimates of the total CO2 flux (F(c)), which is often used as an estimate of NEE, over six years using the dependence of F(hadv) and F(vadv) on u(*). When the sum of F(hadv) and F(vadv) was used to correct monthly F(c), we observed values that were different from the monthly F(c) calculated using the traditional u(*)-filter correction by--16 to 20 g C x m(-2) x mo(-1); the mean percentage difference in monthly Fc for these two methods over the six-year period was 10%. When the sum of F(hadv) and F(vadv) was used to correct annual Fc, we observed a 65% difference compared to the traditional u(*)-filter approach. Thus, the errors to the local CO2 budget, when F(hadv) and F(vadv) are ignored, can become large when compounded in cumulative fashion over long time intervals. We conclude that the "micrometeorological" (using observations of F(hadv) and F(vadv)) and "biological" (using the u(*) filter and temperature vs. F(c) relationship) corrections differ on the basis of fundamental mechanistic grounds. The micrometeorological correction is based on aerodynamic mechanisms and shows no correlation to drivers of biological activity. Conversely, the biological correction is based on climatic responses of organisms and has no physical connection to aerodynamic processes. In those cases where they impose corrections of similar magnitude on the cumulative F(c) sum, the result is due to a serendipitous similarity in scale but has no clear mechanistic explanation.

Impacts of Water Stress on Forest Recovery and Its Interaction with Canopy Height.

Global climate change is leading to an increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought events, which can affect the functioning of forest ecosystems. Because human activities such as afforestation and forest attributes such as canopy height may exhibit considerable spatial differences, such differences may alter the recovery paths of drought-impacted forests. To accurately assess how climate affects forest recovery, a quantitative evaluation on the effects of forest attributes and their possible interaction with the intensity of water stress is required. Here, forest recovery following extreme drought events was analyzed for Yunnan Province, southwest China. The variation in the recovery of forests with different water availability and canopy heights was quantitatively assessed at the regional scale by using canopy height data based on light detection and ranging (LiDAR) measurements, enhanced vegetation index data, and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) data. Our results indicated that forest recovery was affected by water availability and canopy height. Based on the enhanced vegetation index measures, shorter trees were more likely to recover than taller ones after drought. Further analyses demonstrated that the effect of canopy height on recovery rates after drought also depends on water availability—the effect of canopy height on recovery diminished as water availability increased after drought. Additional analyses revealed that when the water availability exceeded a threshold (SPEI > 0.85), no significant difference in the recovery was found between short and tall trees (p > 0.05). In the context of global climate change, future climate scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 showed more frequent water stress in Yunnan by the end of the 21st century. In summary, our results indicated that canopy height casts an important influence on forest recovery and tall trees have greater vulnerability and risk to dieback and mortality from drought. These results may have broad implications for policies and practices of forest management.

Warming climate extends dryness-controlled areas of terrestrial carbon sequestration.

At biome-scale, terrestrial carbon uptake is controlled mainly by weather variability. Observational data from a global monitoring network indicate that the sensitivity of terrestrial carbon sequestration to mean annual temperature (T) breaks down at a threshold value of 16°C, above which terrestrial CO2 fluxes are controlled by dryness rather than temperature. Here we show that since 1948 warming climate has moved the 16°C T latitudinal belt poleward. Land surface area with T > 16°C and now subject to dryness control rather than temperature as the regulator of carbon uptake has increased by 6% and is expected to increase by at least another 8% by 2050. Most of the land area subjected to this warming is arid or semiarid with ecosystems that are highly vulnerable to drought and land degradation. In areas now dryness-controlled, net carbon uptake is ~27% lower than in areas in which both temperature and dryness (T < 16°C) regulate plant productivity. This warming-induced extension of dryness-controlled areas may be triggering a positive feedback accelerating global warming. Continued increases in land area with T > 16°C has implications not only for positive feedback on climate change, but also for ecosystem integrity and land cover, particularly for pastoral populations in marginal lands.