Magnitude of urban heat islands largely explained by climate and population.

Urban heat islands (UHIs) exacerbate the risk of heat-related mortality associated with global climate change. The intensity of UHIs varies with population size and mean annual precipitation, but a unifying explanation for this variation is lacking, and there are no geographically targeted guidelines for heat mitigation. Here we analyse summertime differences between urban and rural surface temperatures (ΔTs) worldwide and find a nonlinear increase in ΔTs with precipitation that is controlled by water or energy limitations on evapotranspiration and that modulates the scaling of ΔTs with city size. We introduce a coarse-grained model that links population, background climate, and UHI intensity, and show that urban-rural differences in evapotranspiration and convection efficiency are the main determinants of warming. The direct implication of these nonlinearities is that mitigation strategies aimed at increasing green cover and albedo are more efficient in dry regions, whereas the challenge of cooling tropical cities will require innovative solutions.

Hydraulic vulnerability difference between branches and roots increases with environmental aridity.

The vulnerability of plant xylem to embolism can be described as the water potential at which xylem conductivity is lost by 50% (P50). According to the traditional hypothesis of hydraulic vulnerability segmentation, the difference in vulnerability to embolism between branches and roots is positive (P50 root-branch > 0). It is not clear whether this occurs broadly across species or how segmentation might vary across aridity gradients. We compiled hydraulic and anatomical datasets from branches and roots across 104 woody species (including new measurements from 10 species) in four biomes to investigate the relationships between P50 root-branch and environmental factors associated with aridity. We found a positive P50 root-branch relationship across species, and evidence that P50 root-branch increases with aridity. Branch xylem hydraulic conductivity transitioned from more efficient (e.g., wider conduit, higher hydraulic conductivity) to safer (e.g., narrower conduit, more negative P50) in response to the increase of aridity, while root xylem hydraulic conductivity remained unchanged across aridity gradients. Our results demonstrate that the hydraulic vulnerability difference between branches and roots is more positive in species from arid regions, largely driven by modifications to branch traits.

Hydraulic diversity of forests regulates ecosystem resilience during drought.

Plants influence the atmosphere through fluxes of carbon, water and energy1, and can intensify drought through land-atmosphere feedback effects2-4. The diversity of plant functional traits in forests, especially physiological traits related to water (hydraulic) transport, may have a critical role in land-atmosphere feedback, particularly during drought. Here we combine 352 site-years of eddy covariance measurements from 40 forest sites, remote-sensing observations of plant water content and plant functional-trait data to test whether the diversity in plant traits affects the response of the ecosystem to drought. We find evidence that higher hydraulic diversity buffers variation in ecosystem flux during dry periods across temperate and boreal forests. Hydraulic traits were the predominant significant predictors of cross-site patterns in drought response. By contrast, standard leaf and wood traits, such as specific leaf area and wood density, had little explanatory power. Our results demonstrate that diversity in the hydraulic traits of trees mediates ecosystem resilience to drought and is likely to have an important role in future ecosystem-atmosphere feedback effects in a changing climate.

Aridity-dependent sequence of water potentials for stomatal closure and hydraulic dysfunctions in woody plants.

The sequence of physiological events during drought strongly impacts plants' overall performance. Here, we synthesized the global data of stomatal and hydraulic traits in leaves and stems of 202 woody species to evaluate variations in the water potentials for key physiological events and their sequence along the climatic gradient. We found that the seasonal minimum water potential, turgor loss point, stomatal closure point, and leaf and stem xylem vulnerability to embolism were intercorrelated and decreased with aridity, indicating that water stress drives trait co-selection. In xeric regions, the seasonal minimum water potential occurred at lower water potential than turgor loss point, and the subsequent stomatal closure delayed embolism formation. In mesic regions, however, the seasonal minimum water potential did not pose a threat to the physiological functions, and stomatal closure occurred even at slightly more negative water potential than embolism. Our study demonstrates that the sequence of water potentials for physiological dysfunctions of woody plants varies with aridity, that is, xeric species adopt a more conservative sequence to prevent severe tissue damage through tighter stomatal regulation (isohydric strategy) and higher embolism resistance, while mesic species adopt a riskier sequence via looser stomatal regulation (anisohydric strategy) to maximize carbon uptake at the cost of hydraulic safety. Integrating both aridity-dependent sequence of water potentials for physiological dysfunctions and gap between these key traits into the hydraulic framework of process-based vegetation models would improve the prediction of woody plants' responses to drought under global climate change.

Pervasive decreases in living vegetation carbon turnover time across forest climate zones.

Forests play a major role in the global carbon cycle. Previous studies on the capacity of forests to sequester atmospheric CO2 have mostly focused on carbon uptake, but the roles of carbon turnover time and its spatiotemporal changes remain poorly understood. Here, we used long-term inventory data (1955 to 2018) from 695 mature forest plots to quantify temporal trends in living vegetation carbon turnover time across tropical, temperate, and cold climate zones, and compared plot data to 8 Earth system models (ESMs). Long-term plots consistently showed decreases in living vegetation carbon turnover time, likely driven by increased tree mortality across all major climate zones. Changes in living vegetation carbon turnover time were negatively correlated with CO2 enrichment in both forest plot data and ESM simulations. However, plot-based correlations between living vegetation carbon turnover time and climate drivers such as precipitation and temperature diverged from those of ESM simulations. Our analyses suggest that forest carbon sinks are likely to be constrained by a decrease in living vegetation carbon turnover time, and accurate projections of forest carbon sink dynamics will require an improved representation of tree mortality processes and their sensitivity to climate in ESMs.

Optimization theory explains nighttime stomatal responses.

Nocturnal transpiration is widely observed across species and biomes, and may significantly impact global water, carbon, and energy budgets. However, it remains elusive why plants lose water at night and how to model it at large scales. We hypothesized that plants optimize nighttime leaf diffusive conductance (gwn ) to balance potential daytime photosynthetic benefits and nocturnal transpiration benefits. We quantified nighttime benefits from respiratory reductions due to evaporative leaf cooling. We described nighttime costs in terms of a reduced carbon gain during the day because of water use at night. We measured nighttime stomatal responses and tested our model with water birch (Betula occidentalis) saplings grown in a glasshouse. The gwn of water birch decreased with drier soil, higher atmospheric CO2 , wetter air, lower leaf temperature, and lower leaf respiration rate. Our model predicted all these responses correctly, except for the response of gwn to air humidity. Our results also suggested that the slow decrease in gwn after sunset could be associated with decreasing leaf respiration. The optimality-based nocturnal transpiration model smoothly integrates with daytime stomatal optimization approaches, and thus has the potential to quantitatively predict nocturnal transpiration across space and time.

Variance in tree growth rates provides a key link for completing the theory of forest size structure formation.

In natural forests at a demographic equilibrium state, the size frequency distribution (SFD) of trees is linked with their size-dependent growth and mortality rates. While the mean growth rate (MGR) of each size class is generally used for determining the SFD, the variance in the growth rate (VGR) has always been ignored. Here, based on the analyses with Kolmogorov forward equation, we show that in general, the VGR can flatten the slope of the SFD and, in particular, can address the contradiction between the size-dependent MGR and the -2 power-law SFD in the metabolic scaling theory. We traced the origin of the VGR to the intrinsic stochasticity in the allometric growth coefficients of trees and deduced its functional form based on variance propagation. Using the forest censuses data from Barro Colorado Island, we verified the prediction of the VGR and indicated its indispensability in the theory of forest size-structure formation.

Forecasting semi-arid biome shifts in the Anthropocene.

Shrub encroachment, forest decline and wildfires have caused large-scale changes in semi-arid vegetation over the past 50 years. Climate is a primary determinant of plant growth in semi-arid ecosystems, yet it remains difficult to forecast large-scale vegetation shifts (i.e. biome shifts) in response to climate change. We highlight recent advances from four conceptual perspectives that are improving forecasts of semi-arid biome shifts. Moving from small to large scales, first, tree-level models that simulate the carbon costs of drought-induced plant hydraulic failure are improving predictions of delayed-mortality responses to drought. Second, tracer-informed water flow models are improving predictions of species coexistence as a function of climate. Third, new applications of ecohydrological models are beginning to simulate small-scale water movement processes at large scales. Fourth, remotely-sensed measurements of plant traits such as relative canopy moisture are providing early-warning signals that predict forest mortality more than a year in advance. We suggest that a community of researchers using modeling approaches (e.g. machine learning) that can integrate these perspectives will rapidly improve forecasts of semi-arid biome shifts. Better forecasts can be expected to help prevent catastrophic changes in vegetation states by identifying improved monitoring approaches and by prioritizing high-risk areas for management.

CAM plant expansion favored indirectly by asymmetric climate warming and increased rainfall variability.

Recent observational evidence suggests that nighttime temperatures are increasing faster than daytime temperatures, while in some regions precipitation events are becoming less frequent and more intense. The combined ecological impacts of these climatic changes on crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) plants and their interactions with other functional groups (i.e., grass communities) remain poorly understood. Here we developed a growth chamber experiment to investigate how two CAM-grass communities in desert ecosystems of the southwestern United States and northern Mexico respond to asymmetric warming and increasing rainfall variability. Grasses generally showed competitive advantages over CAM plants with increasing rainfall variability under ambient temperature conditions. In contrast, asymmetric warming caused mortality of both grass species (Bouteloua eriopoda and Bouteloua curtipendula) in both rainfall treatments due to enhanced drought stress. Grass mortality indirectly favored CAM plants even though the biomass of both CAM species Cylindropuntia imbricata and Opuntia phaeacantha significantly decreased. The stem's volume-to-surface ratio of C. imbricata was significantly higher in mixture than in monoculture under ambient temperature (both P < 0.0014); however, the difference became insignificant under asymmetric warming (both P > 0.1625), suggesting that warming weakens the negative effects of interspecific competition on CAM plant growth. Our findings suggest that while the increase in intra-annual rainfall variability enhances grass productivity, asymmetric warming may lead to grass mortality, thereby indirectly favoring the expansion of co-existing CAM plants. This study provides novel experimental evidence showing how the ongoing changes in global warming and rainfall variability affect CAM-grass growth and interactions in dryland ecosystems.

Phylogenetic and biogeographic controls of plant nighttime stomatal conductance.

The widely documented phenomenon of nighttime stomatal conductance gsn could lead to substantial water loss with no carbon gain, and thus it remains unclear whether nighttime stomatal conductance confers a functional advantage. Given that studies of gsn have focused on controlled environments or small numbers of species in natural environments, a broad phylogenetic and biogeographic context could provide insights into potential adaptive benefits of gsn . We measured gsn on a diverse suite of species (n = 73) across various functional groups and climates-of-origin in a common garden to study the phylogenetic and biogeographic/climatic controls on gsn and further assessed the degree to which gsn co-varied with leaf functional traits and daytime gas-exchange rates. Closely related species were more similar in gsn than expected by chance. Herbaceous species had higher gsn than woody species. Species that typically grow in climates with lower mean annual precipitation - where the fitness cost of water loss should be the highest - generally had higher gsn . Our results reveal the highest gsn rates in species from environments where neighboring plants compete most strongly for water, suggesting a possible role for the competitive advantage of gsn .

Dead or dying? Quantifying the point of no return from hydraulic failure in drought-induced tree mortality.

Determining physiological mechanisms and thresholds for climate-driven tree die-off could help improve global predictions of future terrestrial carbon sinks. We directly tested for the lethal threshold in hydraulic failure - an inability to move water due to drought-induced xylem embolism - in a pine sapling experiment. In a glasshouse experiment, we exposed loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) saplings (n = 83) to drought-induced water stress ranging from mild to lethal. Before rewatering to relieve drought stress, we measured native hydraulic conductivity and foliar color change. We monitored all measured individuals for survival or mortality. We found a lethal threshold at 80% loss of hydraulic conductivity - a point of hydraulic failure beyond which it is more likely trees will die, than survive, and describe mortality risk across all levels of water stress. Foliar color changes lagged behind hydraulic failure - best predicting when trees had been dead for some time, rather than when they were dying. Our direct measurement of native conductivity, while monitoring the same individuals for survival or mortality, quantifies a continuous probability of mortality risk from hydraulic failure. Predicting tree die-off events and understanding the mechanism involved requires knowledge not only of when trees are dead, but when they begin dying - having passed the point of no return.

Unbiased fuzzy global optimization of Lennard-Jones clusters for N ≤ 1000.

We propose a fuzzy global optimization (FGO) algorithm to identify the lowest-energy structure of nanoclusters. In contrast to traditional methods implemented in the real space, FGO utilizes mostly the discrete space in a fuzzy search framework. Starting from random initial configurations, we carry out directed Monte Carlo and surface Monte Carlo in the discrete space to obtain low-energy candidate clusters and make real-space local optimizations finally to get the real global minimum structure. The performance of FGO is demonstrated in a large set of standard Lennard-Jones (LJ) clusters with up to 1000 atoms. All the putative global minima reported in the literature are successfully obtained with a low scaling of CPU time with cluster size, and new global minimum structures for LJ clusters with 894, 974, and 991 atoms are identified. Due to the unbiased nature, FGO can potentially deal with the global optimization of other nanomaterials with high efficiency and reliability.

Rising Variability, Not Slowing Down, as a Leading Indicator of a Stochastically Driven Abrupt Transition in a Dryland Ecosystem.

Complex systems can undergo abrupt state transitions near critical points. Theory and controlled experimental studies suggest that the approach to critical points can be anticipated by critical slowing down (CSD), that is, a characteristic slowdown in the dynamics. The validity of this indicator in field ecosystems, where stochasticity is important in driving transitions, remains unclear. We analyze long-term data from a dryland ecosystem in the Shapotou region of China and show that the ecosystem underwent an abrupt transition from a nearly bare to a moderate grass cover state. Prior to the transition, the system showed no (or weak) signatures of CSD but exhibited expected increasing trends in the variability of the grass cover, quantified by variance and skewness. These surprising results are consistent with the theoretical expectation of stochastically driven abrupt transitions that occur away from critical points; indeed, a driver of vegetation-annual rainfall-showed rising variance prior to the transition. Our study suggests that rising variability can potentially serve as a leading indicator of stochastically driven transitions in real-world ecosystems.

Effects of competition on induction of crassulacean acid metabolism in a facultative CAM plant.

Abiotic drivers of environmental stress have been found to induce CAM expression (nocturnal carboxylation) in facultative CAM species such as Mesembryanthemum crystallinum. The role played by biotic factors such as competition with non-CAM species in affecting CAM expression, however, remains largely understudied. This research investigated the effects of salt and water conditions on the competition between M. crystallinum and the C3 grass Bromus mollis with which it is found to coexist in California's coastal grasslands. We also investigated the extent to which CAM expression in M. crystallinum was affected by the intensity of the competition with B. mollis. We found that M. crystallinum had a competitive advantage over B. mollis in drought and saline conditions, while B. mollis exerted strong competitive effects on M. crystallinum in access to light and soil nutrients in high water conditions. This strong competitive effect even outweighed the favorable effects of salt or water additions in increasing the biomass and productivity of M. crystallinum in mixture. Regardless of salt conditions, M. crystallinum did not switch to CAM photosynthesis in response to this strong competitive effect from B. mollis. Disturbance (i.e., grass cutting) reduced the competitive pressure by B. mollis and allowed for CAM expression in M. crystallinum when it was grown mixed with B. mollis. We suggest that moderate competition with other functional groups can enhance CAM expression in M. crystallinum, thereby affecting its plasticity and ability to cope with biological stress.

Modeled hydraulic redistribution in tree-grass, CAM-grass, and tree-CAM associations: the implications of crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM).

Past studies have largely focused on hydraulic redistribution (HR) in trees, shrubs, and grasses, and recognized its role in interspecies interactions. HR in plants that conduct crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM), however, remains poorly investigated, as does the effect of HR on transpiration in different vegetation associations (i.e., tree-grass, CAM-grass, and tree-CAM associations). We have developed a mechanistic model to investigate the net direction and magnitude of HR at the patch scale for tree-grass, CAM-grass, and tree-CAM associations at the growing season to yearly timescale. The modeling results show that deep-rooted CAM plants in CAM-grass associations could perform hydraulic lift at a higher rate than trees in tree-grass associations in a relatively wet environment, as explained by a significant increase in grass transpiration rate in the shallow soil layer, balancing a lower transpiration rate by CAM plants. By comparison, trees in tree-CAM associations may perform hydraulic descent at a higher rate than those in tree-grass associations in a dry environment. Model simulations also show that hydraulic lift increases the transpiration of shallow-rooted plants, while hydraulic descent increases that of deep-rooted plants. CAM plants transpire during the night and thus perform HR during the day. Based on these model simulations, we suggest that the ability of CAM plants to perform HR at a higher rate may have different effects on the surrounding plant community than those of plants with C3 or C4 photosynthetic pathways (i.e., diurnal transpiration).

Hydraulic lift as a determinant of tree-grass coexistence on savannas.

The coexistence of woody plants and grasses in savannas is determined by a complex set of interacting factors that determine access to resources and demographic dynamics, under the control of external drivers and vegetation feedbacks with the physical environment. Existing theories explain coexistence mainly as an effect of competitive relations and/or disturbances. However, theoretical studies on the way facilitative interactions resulting from hydraulic lift affect tree-grass coexistence and the range of environmental conditions in which savannas are stable are still lacking. We investigated the role of hydraulic lift in the stability of tree-grass coexistence in savannas. To that end, we developed a new mechanistic model that accounts for both competition for soil water in the shallow soil and fire-induced disturbance. We found that hydraulic lift favors grasses, which scavenge the water lifted by woody plants. Thus, hydraulic lift expands (at the expenses of woodlands) the range of environmental conditions in which savannas are stable. These results indicate that hydraulic lift can be an important mechanism responsible for the coexistence of woody plants and grasses in savannas. Grass facilitation by trees through the process of hydraulic lift could allow savannas to persist stably in mesic regions that would otherwise exhibit a forest cover.

Carbon cycle responses to climate change across China's terrestrial ecosystem: Sensitivity and driving process.

Investigations into the carbon cycle and how it responds to climate change at the national scale are important for a comprehensive understanding of terrestrial carbon cycle and global change issues. Contributions of carbon fluxes to the terrestrial sink and the effects on climate change are still not fully understood. In this study, we aimed to explore the relationship between ecosystem production (GPP/SIF/NDVI) and net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) and to investigate the sensitivity of carbon fluxes to climate change at different spatio-temporal scales. Furthermore, we sought to delve into the carbon cycle processes driven by climate stress in China since the beginning of the 21st century. To achieve these objectives, we employed correlation and sensitivity analysis techniques, utilizing a wide range of data sources including ground-based observations, remote sensing observations, atmospheric inversions, machine learning, and model simulations. Our findings indicate that NEE in most arid regions of China is primarily driven by ecosystem production. Climate variations have a greater influence on ecosystem production than respiration. Warming has negatively impacted ecosystem production in Northeast China, as well as in subtropical and tropical regions. Conversely, increased precipitation has strengthened the terrestrial carbon sink, particularly in the northern cool and dry areas. We also found that ecosystem respiration exhibits heightened sensitivity to warming in southern China. Moreover, our analysis revealed that the control of terrestrial carbon cycle by ecosystem production gradually weakens from cold/arid areas to warm/humid areas. We identified distinct temperature thresholds (ranging from 10.5 to 13.7 °C) and precipitation thresholds (approximately 1400 mm yr-1) for the transition from production-dominated to respiration-dominated processes. Our study provides valuable insights into the complex relationship between climate change and carbon cycle in China.

A global meta-analysis on the effects of organic and inorganic fertilization on grasslands and croplands.

A central role for nature-based solution is to identify optimal management practices to address environmental challenges, including carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation. Inorganic fertilization increases plant aboveground biomass but often causes a tradeoff with plant diversity loss. It remains unclear, however, whether organic fertilization, as a potential nature-based solution, could alter this tradeoff by increasing aboveground biomass without plant diversity loss. Here we compile data from 537 experiments on organic and inorganic fertilization across grasslands and croplands worldwide to evaluate the responses of aboveground biomass, plant diversity, and soil organic carbon (SOC). Both organic and inorganic fertilization increase aboveground biomass by 56% and 42% relative to ambient, respectively. However, only inorganic fertilization decreases plant diversity, while organic fertilization increases plant diversity in grasslands with greater soil water content. Moreover, organic fertilization increases SOC in grasslands by 19% and 15% relative to ambient and inorganic fertilization, respectively. The positive effect of organic fertilization on SOC increases with increasing mean annual temperature in grasslands, a pattern not observed in croplands. Collectively, our findings highlight organic fertilization as a potential nature-based solution that can increase two ecosystem services of grasslands, forage production, and soil carbon storage, without a tradeoff in plant diversity loss.

Diminishing carryover benefits of earlier spring vegetation growth.

Spring vegetation growth can benefit summer growth by increasing foliage area and carbon sequestration potential, or impair it by consuming additional resources needed for sustaining subsequent growth. However, the prevalent driving mechanism and its temporal changes remain unknown. Using satellite observations and long-term atmospheric CO2 records, here we show a weakening trend of the linkage between spring and summer vegetation growth/productivity in the Northern Hemisphere during 1982-2021. This weakening is driven by warmer and more extreme hot weather that becomes unfavourable for peak-season growth, shifting peak plant functioning away from earlier periods. This is further exacerbated by seasonally growing ecosystem water stress due to reduced water supply and enhanced water demand. Our finding suggests that beneficial carryover effects of spring growth on summer growth are diminishing or even reversing, acting as an early warning sign of the ongoing shift of climatic effects from stimulating to suppressing plant photosynthesis during the early to peak seasons.