Epidemiological trends and trajectories of MAFLD-associated hepatocellular carcinoma 2002-2033: the ITA.LI.CA database.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) represents a new inclusive definition of the whole spectrum of liver diseases associated to metabolic disorders. The main objective of this study was to compare patients with MAFLD and non-MAFLD with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) included in a nationally representative cohort. METHODS: We analysed 6882 consecutive patients with HCC enrolled from 2002 to 2019 by 23 Italian Liver Cancer centres to compare epidemiological and future trends in three subgroups: pure, single aetiology MAFLD (S-MAFLD); mixed aetiology MAFLD (metabolic and others, M-MAFLD); and non-MAFLD HCC. RESULTS: MAFLD was diagnosed in the majority of patients with HCC (68.4%). The proportion of both total MAFLD and S-MAFLD HCC significantly increased over time (from 50.4% and 3.6% in 2002-2003, to 77.3% and 28.9% in 2018-2019, respectively, p<0.001). In Italy S-MAFLD HCC is expected to overcome M-MAFLD HCC in about 6 years. Patients with S-MAFLD HCC were older, more frequently men and less frequently cirrhotic with clinically relevant portal hypertension and a surveillance-related diagnosis. They had more frequently large tumours and extrahepatic metastases. After weighting, and compared with patients with non-MAFLD, S-MAFLD and M-MAFLD HCC showed a significantly lower overall (p=0.026, p=0.004) and HCC-related (p<0.001, for both) risk of death. Patients with S-MAFLD HCC showed a significantly higher risk of non-HCC-related death (p=0.006). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of MAFLD HCC in Italy is rapidly increasing to cover the majority of patients with HCC. Despite a less favourable cancer stage at diagnosis, patients with MAFLD HCC have a lower risk of HCC-related death, suggesting reduced cancer aggressiveness.

Twist-stretch relations in nucleic acids.

Nucleic acids are highly deformable helical molecules constantly stretched, twisted and bent in their biological functioning. Single molecule experiments have shown that double stranded (ds)-RNA and standard ds-DNA have opposite twist-stretch patterns and stretching properties when overwound under a constant applied load. The key structural features of the A-form RNA and B-form DNA helices are here incorporated in a three-dimensional mesoscopic Hamiltonian model which accounts for the radial, bending and twisting fluctuations of the base pairs. Using path integral techniques which sum over the ensemble of the base pair fluctuations, I compute the average helical repeat of the molecules as a function of the load. The obtained twist-stretch relations and stretching properties, for short A- and B-helical fragments, are consistent with the opposite behaviors observed in kilo-base long molecules.

Predicting Failure to Recover Swallowing in Patients with Severe Post-stroke Dysphagia: The DIsPHAGIc Score.

In post-stroke dysphagia, early identification of patients at highest risk of failing swallowing recovery (SR) would be useful to decide which of them should undergo percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy. The studies on this subject were numerous but generally based on small statistical samples. In this retrospective study, 1232 patients with ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke (73.7 ± 13.0 years, 51% men) were assessed: 593 non-dysphagic, 351 partially dysphagic and 288 totally dysphagic. Among the latter, 45.1% could not recover oral intake. A score to assess the risk of failing SR was obtained from the group with total dysphagia, and further 210 patients with total post-stroke dysphagia were utilized for validation. A regular progression of stroke severity markers, complications and mortality was observed from non-dysphagic, to partially dysphagic, up to totally dysphagic patients. Among the latter, seven variables were independently associated with failure of SR, and formed the "DIsPHAGIc score": cerebral lesion Diameter ≥ 6 cm (+ 1), left frontal Ischemia (- 1), Partial anterior circulation syndrome (- 1), Hypoxia (+ 1), Antiplatelet drug (+ 1), GCS verbal reaction < 4 (+ 1), Internal capsule ischemia (- 1). The area under the ROC curve was 0.79 (95% CI 0.74-0.85). For total scores ≥ 2 there was a high risk of failing SR, with specificity 76.9%, sensitivity 72.1% and accuracy 74.7%. The application of the DIsPHAGIc score to the validation sample provided almost identical results. The evolution of post-stroke dysphagia towards irreversibility can be predicted by a simple, reproducible and robust scoring system based on 7 variables commonly available during hospitalization.

Non-linear Hamiltonian models for DNA.

Nucleic acids' physical properties have been investigated by theoretical methods based both on fully atomistic representations and on coarse-grained models, e.g., the worm-like-chain, taken from polymer physics. In this review article, I discuss an intermediate (mesoscopic) approach and show how to build a three-dimensional Hamiltonian model which accounts for the main interactions responsible for the stability of the helical molecules. While the 3D mesoscopic model yields a sufficiently detailed description of the helix at the level of the base pair, it also allows one to predict the thermodynamical and structural properties of molecules in solution. Relying on the idea that the base pair fluctuations can be conceived as trajectories, I have built over the past years a computational method based on the time-dependent path integral formalism to derive the partition function. While the main features of the method are presented, I focus here in particular on a newly developed statistical method to set the maximum amplitude of the base pair fluctuations, a key parameter of the theory. Some applications to the calculation of DNA flexibility properties are discussed together with the available experimental data.

Pattern of macrovascular invasion in hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), macrovascular invasion (MaVI) limits treatment options and decreases survival. Detailed data on the relationship between MaVI extension and patients' characteristics, and its impact on patients' outcome are limited. We evaluated the prevalence and extension of MaVI in a large cohort of consecutive HCC patients, analysing its association with liver disease and tumour characteristics, as well as with treatments performed and patients' survival. METHODS: We analysed data of 4774 patients diagnosed with HCC recorded in the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database (2008-2018). Recursive partition analysis (RPA) was performed to evaluate interactions between MaVI, clinical variables and treatment, exploring the inter-relationship determining overall survival. RESULTS: MaVI prevalence was 11.1%, and median survival of these patients was 6.0 months (95% CI, 5.1-7.1). MaVI was associated with younger age at diagnosis, presence of symptoms, worse Performance Status (PS) and liver function, high alphafetoprotein levels and large HCCs. MaVI extension was associated with worse PS, ascites and greater impairment in liver function. RPA identified patients' categories with different treatment indications and survival, ranging from 2.4 months in those with PS > 1 and ascites, regardless of MaVI extension (receiving best supportive care in 90.3% of cases), to 14.1 months in patients with PS 0-1, no ascites and Vp1-Vp2 MaVI (treated with surgery in 19.1% of cases). CONCLUSIONS: MaVI presence and extension, together with PS and ascites, significantly affect patients' survival and treatment selection. The decision tree based on these parameters may help assess patients' prognosis and inform therapeutic decisions.

The changing scenario of hepatocellular carcinoma in Italy: an update.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is changing in most areas of the world. This study aimed at updating the changing scenario of aetiology, clinical presentation, management and prognosis of HCC in Italy during the last 15 years. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database included 6034 HCC patients managed in 23 centres from 2004 to 2018. Patients were divided into three groups according to the date of cancer diagnosis (2004-2008, 2009-2013 and 2014-2018). RESULTS: The main results were: (i) a progressive patient ageing; (ii) a progressive increase of non-viral cases and, particularly, of 'metabolic' and 'metabolic + alcohol' HCCs; (iii) a slightly decline of cases diagnosed under surveillance, but with an incremental use of the semiannual schedule; (iv) a favourable cancer stage migration; (v) an increased use of radiofrequency ablation to the detriment of percutaneous ethanol injection; (vi) improved outcomes of ablative and transarterial treatments; (vii) an improved overall survival (adjusted for the lead time in surveyed patients) in the last calendar period, particularly in viral patients; (viii) a large gap between the number of potential candidates (according to oncologic criteria and age) to liver transplant and that of transplanted patients. CONCLUSIONS: During the last 15 years several aspects of HCC scenario have changed, as well as its management. The improvement in patient survival observed in the last period was likely because of a larger use of thermal ablation with respect to the less effective alcohol injection and to an improved management of intermediate stage patients.

Monofocal hepatocellular carcinoma: How much does size matter?

BACKGROUND & AIMS: According to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system, monofocal hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is classified as early (BCLC A) irrespective of its size, even though controversies still exist regarding staging and treatment of large tumours. We aimed at evaluating the appropriate staging and treatment for large (>5 cm) monofocal (HCC). METHODS: From the Italian Liver Cancer database, we selected 924 patients with small early monofocal HCC (2-5 cm; SEM-HCC), 163 patients with larger tumours (>5 cm; LEM-HCC) and 1048 intermediate stage patients (BCLC B). RESULTS: LEM-HCC patients had a worse overall survival (OS) than SEM-HCC (31.0 vs 49.0 months; P < .0001), and this was confirmed at multivariate analysis (HR 1.63, 95% CI 1.29-2.05; P < .0001). The small difference in OS between LEM-HCC and BCLC B patients (31.0 vs 27.0 months; P = .03) disappeared in the multivariate model (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.77-1.25; P = .89). In all monofocal tumours, treatment was the strongest independent predictor of survival, with a progressively decreasing survival benefit moving from "curative" to "palliative" therapies. The survival of resected patients with LEM-HCC was significantly shorter than that of SEM-HCC (44.0 vs 78.0 months; P = .002), but liver resection provided the highest survival benefit in both groups compared to other treatments. CONCLUSIONS: Monofocal HCC larger than 5 cm should not be staged as BCLC A and either a different staging system or a different subgrouping of patients (e.g. BCLC AB) should be used. Liver resection, if feasible, remains the recommended treatment for all these patients.

Base pair fluctuations in helical models for nucleic acids.

A statistical method is developed to estimate the maximum amplitude of the base pair fluctuations in a three dimensional mesoscopic model for nucleic acids. The base pair thermal vibrations around the helix diameter are viewed as a Brownian motion for a particle embedded in a stable helical structure. The probability to return to the initial position is computed, as a function of time, by integrating over the particle paths consistent with the physical properties of the model potential. The zero time condition for the first-passage probability defines the constraint to select the integral cutoff for various macroscopic helical conformations, obtained by tuning the twist, bending, and slide motion between adjacent base pairs along the molecule stack. Applying the method to a short homogeneous chain at room temperature, we obtain meaningful estimates for the maximum fluctuations in the twist conformation with ∼10.5 base pairs per helix turn, typical of double stranded DNA helices. Untwisting the double helix, the base pair fluctuations broaden and the integral cutoff increases. The cutoff is found to increase also in the presence of a sliding motion, which shortens the helix contour length, a situation peculiar of dsRNA molecules.

Clinical Role of Lung Ultrasound for the Diagnosis and Prognosis of Coronavirus Disease Pneumonia in Elderly Patients: A Pivotal Study.

BACKGROUND: Lung ultrasound (LUS) showed a promising role in the diagnosis and monitoring of patients hospitalized for novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). However, no data are available on its role in elderly patients. AIMS: The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic and prognostic role of LUS in elderly patients hospitalized for severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) pneumonia. METHODS: Consecutive elderly patients (age >65 years) hospitalized for COVID-19 were enrolled. Demographics, laboratory, comorbidity, and the clinical features of the patients were collected. All patients underwent LUS on admission to the ward. LUS characteristics have been analyzed. Uni- and multivariate analyses to evaluate predictors for in-hospital death were performed. RESULTS: Thirty-seven hospitalized elderly patients (19 men) with a diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection were consecutively enrolled. The median age was 82 years (interquartile range 74.5-93.5). Ultrasound alterations were found in all patients enrolled; inhomogeneous interstitial syndrome with spared areas (91.9%) and pleural alterations (100%) were the most frequent findings. At univariate analysis, LUS score (hazard ratio [HR] 1.168, 95% CI 1.049-1.301) and pleural effusions (HR 3.995, 95% CI 1.056-15.110) were associated with in-hospital death. At multivariate analysis, only LUS score (HR 1.168, 95% CI 1.049-1.301) was independelty associated with in-hospital death. The LUS score's best cutoff for distinguishing patients experiencing in-hospital death was 17 (at multivariate analysis LUS score ≥17, HR 4.827, 95% CI 1.452-16.040). In-hospital death was significantly different according to the LUS score cutoff of 17 (p = 0.0046). CONCLUSION: LUS could play a role in the diagnosis and prognosis in elderly patients hospitalized for SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Association of Left Ventricular Hypertrophy and Atrial Fibrillation with Hemorrhagic Evolution of Small Vessel Disease.

OBJECTIVES: Cerebral small vessel disease (SVD) is often associated with hypertension and may evolve towards intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) or lacunar ischemic stroke. However, the factors favoring the evolution towards ICH or lacunar stroke are not well understood. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective study included 326 consecutive patients (71.1±13.2 years, 38% women): 143 with deep ICH and 183 with lacunar lesions (LL) <2 cm, which were visible in a deep location on brain CT scan. Among LL patients, 143 had a small-artery occlusion (SAO) stroke according to the TOAST classification. Clinical characteristics plus laboratory and neuroradiological variables of these patients had been prospectively collected and a subgroup underwent echocardiography. RESULTS: In multivariate analysis, ICH patients (97% hypertensive), compared to SAO patients (89% hypertensive), had greater left ventricular wall thickness (LVWT; OR 4.15, 95%CI 1.64-10.53, for those with LVWT ≥ 1.4 cm, 70% of whom were hemorrhagic) and lower prevalence of white matter lesions (OR 0.30, 95%CI 0.13-0.70), ever smokers (OR 0.39, 95%CI 0.18-0.82) and diabetics (OR 0.29, 95% CI 0.10-0.84). Moreover, ICH patients had a greater prevalence of atrial fibrillation than LL patients (OR 3.14, 95%CI 1.11-8.93), and so they were more often anticoagulated. CONCLUSIONS: Most SVD patients were hypertensive, but those evolving towards ICH were characterized by organ damage at the cardiac level (increase in LVWT and atrial fibrillation), while those evolving towards lacunar stroke were characterized by a higher prevalence of smokers and diabetics, and by organ damage at the cerebral level (white matter lesions).

Usefulness of the ACTEL Score to Predict Atrial Fibrillation in Patients with Cryptogenic Stroke.

INTRODUCTION: To assess the probability of undetected atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with ischemic stroke, we previously compared patients who were first diagnosed with AF with patients with large or small artery disease and obtained the MrWALLETS 8-item scoring system. In the present study, we utilized cryptogenic strokes (CS) as the control group, as AF is normally sought among CS patients. METHODS: We retrospectively examined 191 ischemic stroke patients (72.5 ± 12.6 years), 68 with first diagnosed AF and 123 with CS, who had undergone 2 brain CT scans, echocardiography, carotid/vertebral ultrasound, continuous electrocardiogram monitoring and anamnestic/laboratory search for cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: In logistic regression, 5 variables were independently associated with AF, forming the "ACTEL" score: Age ≥75 years (OR 2.42, 95% CI 1.18-4.96, p = 0.02; +1 point); hyperCholesterolemia (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.18-0.78, p = 0.009; -1 point); Tricuspid regurgitation ≥ mild-to-moderate (OR 4.99, 95% CI 1.63-15.27, p = 0.005; +1 point); left ventricular End-diastolic volume <65 mL (OR 7.43, 95% CI 2.44-22.6, p = 0.0004; +1 point); Left atrium ≥4 cm (OR 4.57, 95% CI 1.97-10.62, p = 0.0004; +1 point). The algebraic sum of these points may range from -1 to +4. For AF identification, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.80 (95% CI 0.73-0.87). With a cutoff of ≥2, positive predictive value was 80.8%, specificity 92.7% and sensitivity 55.9%. CONCLUSIONS: The ACTEL score, a simplified and improved version of the MrWALLETS score, allows the identification of patients with first diagnosed AF, in the context of CSs, with a high positive predictive value.

First-passage probability: a test for DNA Hamiltonian parameters.

A method is proposed to select the suitable sets of potential parameters for a one-dimensional mesoscopic Hamiltonian model, first introduced to describe the DNA melting transition and later extended to investigate thermodynamic and dynamical properties of nucleic acids. The DNA base pair fluctuations are considered as time dependent trajectories whose initial condition sets the no crossing constraint enforced in the path integral for the first-passage probability. Performing the path integration at room temperature, relations are established between the cutoff on the amplitude of the base pair fluctuations and the model parameters. In particular, a suitable range of values for the non-linear stacking parameter has been proposed while the effect of the stiffness constant on the first-passage probability has been highlighted. The formalism here developed may be applied to compute the lifetime of open base pairs in three-dimensional helical models for DNA molecules.

Venous thromboembolism prevention with low molecular weight heparin may reduce hemorrhagic transformation in acute ischemic stroke.

BACKGROUND: Subcutaneous heparin at a prophylactic dose (SHPD) is a rather common treatment in ischemic stroke, but whether it confers an increased risk of hemorrhagic transformation of cerebral infarct (HT) and whether its reduction or discontinuation favors HT regression are presently poorly understood. METHODS: Two samples of ischemic stroke patients with a cerebral lesion diameter ≥ 3 cm on brain CT scan, admitted over 7 years to our stroke unit, were retrospectively examined: (1) patients treated or not treated with SHPD (enoxaparin 4000 U/day), with subsequent assessment of possible HT appearance (N = 267, mean age 75.9 ± 12.8 years) and (2) patients treated with SHPD, with HT and subsequent reduction/discontinuation or maintenance of the initial dose, and subsequent assessment of HT evolution (N = 116, mean age 75.7 ± 11.1 years). HT severity was quantified according to the ECASS study (HT score). RESULTS: In the first sample, after adjustment for age, sex, stroke severity, cerebral lesion diameter, and other possible confounders, SHPD was inversely associated with HT appearance (hazard ratio 0.62, 95% CI 0.39-0.98, P = 0.04). In the second sample, after adjustment for age, sex, stroke severity, cerebral lesion diameter, and initial HT severity, SHPD reduction/discontinuation had an inverse effect on both HT score improvement (odds ratio 0.42, 95% CI 0.18-0.99, P = 0.049) and HT improvement according to neuroradiological reports (odds ratio 0.34, 95% CI 0.14-0.82, P = 0.015). CONCLUSIONS: This retrospective study suggests that SHPD may play a protective role in HT appearance and evolution, which requires verification by a randomized clinical trial.

Prognostic value of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in the elderly patients.

BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the liver manifestation of metabolic syndrome, a risk factor for mortality and cardiovascular morbidity, but we ignore the role of steatosis per se in survival, and there is very little information about this condition in the geriatric patient. AIMS: With the present study, we investigated the independent prognostic value of NAFLD on overall mortality in the elderly. METHODS: Within the Pianoro Project, involving people ≥ 65 years, anamnestic, clinical and laboratoristic data related to NAFLD, insulin resistance, diabetes/hyperglycemia, hypertension, obesity and dyslipidemia were collected in 804 subjects (403 male, 401 female). These subjects were followed up for mortality for a median time of 12.6 years. A multivariate analysis was performed to evaluate the prognostic value of the covariates. RESULTS: At Kaplan-Meier estimator the presence of NAFLD seems to be associated to a lower mortality, and survival tends to increase with the increasing of steatosis grade. Cox's analysis found that survival is increased for subjects having hypercholesterolemia (RR = 0.565), NAFLD (RR = 0.777), hypertension (RR = 0.711) and in female (RR = 0.741), while it is decreased for the older subjects (RR = 3.046), in patients with hypertriglyceridemia (RR = 1.699) and for diabetics (RR = 1.797). The variables BMI and HDL-cholesterol have no role. CONCLUSION: The data obtained in our study show that NAFLD is not associated to overall mortality in the elderly population.

Prognostic role of nutritional status in elderly patients hospitalized for COVID-19: a monocentric study.

BACKGROUND: Symptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection incidence is higher in the elderly patients. Pre-existing geriatric conditions such as comorbidity and frailty seem related to worse hospital outcomes. AIMS: To assess the role of nutritional status as an independent prognostic factor for in-hospital death in elderly patients. METHODS: Consecutive elderly patients (age > 65 years) hospitalized for novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) were enrolled. Demographics, laboratory and comorbidity data were collected. Nutritional status was evaluated using the Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI). Uni- and multivariate Cox regression analyses to evaluate predictors for in-hospital death were performed. RESULTS: One hundred and nine hospitalized elderly patients (54 male) were consecutively enrolled. At univariate analysis, age (HR 1.045 [CI 1.008-1.082]), cognitive impairment (HR 1.949 [CI 1.045-3.364]), C-reactive protein (HR 1.004 [CI 1.011-1.078]), lactate dehydrogenases (HR 1.003 [CI 1.001-1.004]) and GNRI moderate-severe risk category (HR 8.571 [CI 1.096-67.031]) were risk factors for in-hospital death, while albumin (HR 0.809 [CI 0.822-0.964]), PaO2/FiO2 ratio (HR 0.996 [CI 0.993-0.999]) and body mass index (HR 0.875 [CI 0.782-0.979]) were protective factors. Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed a significative higher survival in patients without GNRI moderate or severe risk category (p = 0.0013). At multivariate analysis, PaO2/FiO2 ratio (HR 0.993 [CI 0.987-0.999], p = 0.046) and GNRI moderate-severe risk category (HR 9.285 [1.183-72.879], p = 0.034) were independently associated with in-hospital death. CONCLUSION: Nutritional status assessed by GNRI is a significative predictor of survival in elderly patients hospitalized for COVID-19. The association between GNRI and PaO2/FiO2 ratio is a good prognostic model these patients.

Patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma need a personalized management: A lesson from clinical practice.

The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) advanced stage (BCLC C) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) includes a heterogeneous population, where sorafenib alone is the recommended treatment. In this study, our aim was to assess treatment and overall survival (OS) of BCLC C patients subclassified according to clinical features (performance status [PS], macrovascular invasion [MVI], extrahepatic spread [EHS] or MVI + EHS) determining their allocation to this stage. From the Italian Liver Cancer database, we analyzed 835 consecutive BCLC C patients diagnosed between 2008 and 2014. Patients were subclassified as: PS1 alone (n = 385; 46.1%), PS2 alone (n = 146; 17.5%), MVI (n = 224; 26.8%), EHS (n = 51; 6.1%), and MVI + EHS (n = 29; 3.5%). MVI, EHS, and MVI + EHS patients had larger and multifocal/massive HCCs and higher alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels than PS1 and PS2 patients. Median OS significantly declined from PS1 (38.6 months) to PS2 (22.3 months), EHS (11.2 months), MVI (8.2 months), and MVI + EHS (3.1 months; P < 0.001). Among MVI patients, OS was longer in those with peripheral than with central (portal trunk) MVI (11.2 vs. 7.1 months; P = 0.005). The most frequent treatments were: curative approaches in PS1 (39.7%), supportive therapy in PS2 (41.8%), sorafenib in MVI (39.3%) and EHS (37.3%), and best supportive care in MVI + EHS patients (51.7%). Independent prognostic factors were: Model for End-stage Liver Disease score, Child-Pugh class, ascites, platelet count, albumin, tumor size, MVI, EHS, AFP levels, and treatment type. CONCLUSION: BCLC C stage does not identify patients homogeneous enough to be allocated to a single stage. PS1 alone is not sufficient to include a patient into this stage. The remaining patients should be subclassified according to PS and tumor features, and new patient-tailored therapeutic indications are needed. (Hepatology 2018;67:1784-1796).

Restaging Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Before Additional Treatment Decisions: A Multicenter Cohort Study.

Prognostic assessment of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) at the time of diagnosis remains controversial and becomes even more complex at the time of restaging when new variables need to be considered. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the prognostic utility of restaging patients before proceeding with additional therapies for HCC. Two independent Italian prospective databases were used to identify 1,196 (training cohort) and 648 (validation cohort) consecutive patients with HCC treated over the same study period (2008-2015) who had complete restaging before decisions about additional therapies. The performance of the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) prognostic score at restaging was compared with that of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, Hong Kong Liver Cancer, and Cancer of the Liver Italian Program systems. A multivariable Cox survival analysis was performed to identify baseline, restaging, or dynamic variables that were able to improve the predictive performance of the prognostic systems. At restaging, 35.3% of patients maintained stable disease; most patients were either down-staged by treatment (27.2%) or had disease progression (37.5%). The ITA.LI.CA scoring system at restaging demonstrated the best prognostic performance in both the training and validation cohorts (c-index 0.707 and 0.722, respectively) among all systems examined. On multivariable analysis, several variables improved the prognostic ability of the ITA.LI.CA score at restaging, including progressive disease after the first treatment, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease at restaging, and choice of nonsurgical treatment as additional therapy. A new ITA.LI.CA restaging model was created that demonstrated high discriminative power in both the training and validation cohorts (c-index 0.753 and 0.745, respectively). CONCLUSION: Although the ITA.LI.CA score demonstrated the best prognostic performance at restaging, other variables should be considered to improve the prognostic assessment of patients at the time of deciding additional therapies for HCC.

The concept of therapeutic hierarchy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: A multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) prognostic system for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has recently been proposed and validated. We sought to explore the relationship among the ITA.LI.CA prognostic variables (ie tumour stage, functional score based on performance status and Child-Pugh score, and alpha-fetoprotein), treatment selection and survival outcome in HCC patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We analysed 4,867 consecutive HCC patients undergoing six main treatment strategies (liver transplantation, LT; liver resection, LR; ablation, ABL; intra-arterial therapy, IAT; Sorafenib, SOR; and best supportive care, BSC) and enrolled during 2002-2015 in a multicenter Italian database. In order to control pretreatment imbalances in observed variables, a machine learning methodology was used and inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW) was calculated. An IPTW-adjusted multivariate survival model that included ITA.LI.CA prognostic variables, treatment period and treatment strategy was then developed. The survival benefit of HCC treatments was described as a hazard ratio (95% confidence interval), using BSC as a reference value and as predicted median survival. RESULTS: After the IPTW, the six treatment groups became well balanced for most baseline characteristics. In the IPTW-adjusted multivariate survival model, treatment strategy was found to be the strongest survival predictor, irrespective of ITA.LI.CA prognostic variables and treatment period. The survival benefit of different therapies over BSC was: LT = 0.19 (0.18-0.20); RES = 0.40 (0.37-0.42); ABL 0.42 (0.40-0.44); IAT = 0.58 (0.55-0.61); SOR = 0.92 (0.87-0.97). This multivariate model was then used to predict median survival for each therapy within each ITA.LI.CA stage. CONCLUSION: The concept of therapeutic hierarchy was established within each ITA.LI.CA stage.

DNA size in confined environments.

For short DNA molecules in crowded environments, we evaluate macroscopic parameters such as the average end-to-end distance and the twist conformation by tuning the strength of the site specific confinement driven by the crowders. The ds-DNA is modeled by a mesoscopic Hamiltonian which accounts for the three dimensional helical structure and incorporates fluctuational effects at the level of the base pair. The computational method assumes that the base pair fluctuations are temperature dependent trajectories whose amplitudes can be spatially modulated according to the crowders distribution. We show that the molecular elongation, as measured by the end-to-end distance, varies non-monotonically with the strength of the confinement. Furthermore it is found that, if the crowders mostly confine the DNA mid-chain, the helix over-twists and its end-to-end distance grows in the strong confinement regime. Instead, if the crowders mostly pin one chain end, the helix untwists while the molecule stretches for large confinement strengths. Thus, our results put forward a peculiar relation between stretching and twisting which significantly depends on the crowders profile. The method could be applied to design specific DNA shapes by controlling the environment which constrains the molecule.

Predicting cerebral edema in ischemic stroke patients.

OBJECTIVES: To produce a scoring system for predicting the development of edema in ischemic stroke patients without edema on admission. METHODS: This retrospective study included 572 ischemic stroke patients (73.3 ± 13.0 years, 300 male) without signs of cerebral edema on the first CT scan, which was performed on admission. Another scan was normally performed 3 days later, and subsequently whenever needed. Edema was defined as cerebral hypodensity with compression of lateral ventricles. The main clinical, laboratory, and instrumental variables obtained during the first 24 h were related to the appearance of edema on the CT scans performed after the first one. RESULTS: Cerebral edema occurred in 158 patients (27.6%) after a median time of 4 days. The variables independently associated with edema development were (odds ratio, 95% CI) the following: (1) total anterior circulation syndrome (4.20, 2.55-6.93; P < 0.0001), (2) hyperdense appearance of middle cerebral artery (4.12, 2.03-8.36; P = 0.0001), (3) closed eyes (2.53, 1.39-4.60; P = 0.002), (4) vomiting (3.53, 1.45-8.60; P = 0.006), (5) lacunar cerebral syndrome (0.36, 0.17-0.77; P = 0.008); and (6) white matter lesions (0.53, 0.33-0.86; P = 0.01). Counting one positive point for the first four variables and one negative point for the last two variables, a scoring system (E-score) was built. Cerebral edema could be predicted when the score was ≥ 1 (positive predictive value 61.6%, specificity 85.3%, sensitivity 62.0%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.78. CONCLUSIONS: In ischemic stroke patients, six variables obtained during the first 24 h of hospitalization were predictive of subsequent cerebral edema development.