Management of lung nodules detected by volume CT scanning.

BACKGROUND: The use of multidetector computed tomography (CT) in lung-cancer screening trials involving subjects with an increased risk of lung cancer has highlighted the problem for the clinician of deciding on the best course of action when noncalcified pulmonary nodules are detected by CT. METHODS: A total of 7557 participants underwent CT screening in years 1, 2, and 4 of a randomized trial of lung-cancer screening. We used software to evaluate a noncalcified nodule according to its volume or volume-doubling time. Growth was defined as an increase in volume of at least 25% between two scans. The first-round screening test was considered to be negative if the volume of a nodule was less than 50 mm(3), if it was 50 to 500 mm(3) but had not grown by the time of the 3-month follow-up CT, or if, in the case of those that had grown, the volume-doubling time was 400 days or more. RESULTS: In the first and second rounds of screening, 2.6% and 1.8% of the participants, respectively, had a positive test result. In round one, the sensitivity of the screen was 94.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 86.5 to 98.0) and the negative predictive value 99.9% (95% CI, 99.9 to 100.0). In the 7361 subjects with a negative screening result in round one, 20 lung cancers were detected after 2 years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Among subjects at high risk for lung cancer who were screened in three rounds of CT scanning and in whom noncalcified pulmonary nodules were evaluated according to volume and volume-doubling time, the chances of finding lung cancer 1 and 2 years after a negative first-round test were 1 in 1000 and 3 in 1000, respectively. (Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN63545820.)

Stem cells and the natural history of lung cancer: implications for lung cancer screening.

Lung cancer is not simply a single disease, but a collection of several phenotypically very diverse and regionally distinct neoplasias. Its natural history is complex and not yet fully understood. Stem cells and the complex interaction with the microenvironment of the tumor and the immune system play an important role in tumor progression and metastasizing capacity. This finding explains why lung cancer does not always follow the multistep carcinogenetic and exponential growth model and why small lesions do not always equate to early-stage disease. Despite the fact that volume doubling times are increasingly used as surrogate markers for the natural history of lung cancer and as estimates for the proportion of overdiagnosed cases, it is only a momentary impression. At baseline screening especially, screen-detected lung cancer cases are preferably detected when they are in the indolent phase of their growth curve (length-biased sampling), from which it can by no means be concluded that they may not progress or metastasize at a later stage. Because the natural history of lung cancer is only partly elucidated, conclusions on the impact of overdiagnosis in lung cancer screening are premature.