Effective conservation planning of Iberian amphibians based on a regionalization of climate-driven range shifts.

Amphibians are severely affected by climate change, particularly in regions where droughts prevail and water availability is scarce. The extirpation of amphibians triggers cascading effects that disrupt the trophic structure of food webs and ecosystems. Dedicated assessments of the spatial adaptive potential of amphibian species under climate change are, therefore, essential to provide guidelines for their effective conservation. I used predictions about the location of suitable climates for 27 amphibian species in the Iberian Peninsula from a baseline period to 2080 to typify shifting species' ranges. The time at which these range types are expected to be functionally important for the adaptation of a species was used to identify full or partial refugia; areas most likely to be the home of populations moving into new climatically suitable grounds; areas most likely to receive populations after climate adaptive dispersal; and climatically unsuitable areas near suitable areas. I implemented an area prioritization protocol for each species to obtain a cohesive set of areas that would provide maximum adaptability and where management interventions should be prioritized. A connectivity assessment pinpointed where facilitative strategies would be most effective. Each of the 27 species had distinct spatial requirements but, common to all species, a bottleneck effect was predicted by 2050 because source areas for subsequent dispersal were small in extent. Three species emerged as difficult to maintain up to 2080. The Iberian northwest was predicted to capture adaptive range for most species. My study offers analytical guidelines for managers and decision makers to undertake systematic assessments on where and when to intervene to maximize the persistence of amphibian species and the functionality of the ecosystems that depend on them.

Planeación efectiva de la conservación de anfibios ibéricos con base en una regionalización del rango de cambios causados por el clima Resumen El cambio climático afecta severamente a los anfibios, en particular en las regiones en donde prevalecen las sequías y el agua es escasa. La extirpación de los anfibios dispara efectos en cascada que interrumpen la estructura trófica de las redes alimenticias y los ecosistemas. Por lo tanto, son esenciales los análisis especializados en el potencial de adaptación espacial de las especies anfibias ante el cambio climático para proporcionar las directrices para su conservación efectiva. Usé predicciones de la ubicación de climas adecuados para 27 especies anfibias en la Península Ibérica a partir de un periodo base hasta 2080 para tipificar los rangos de las especies cambiantes. Usé el tiempo en el cual se espera que estos tipos de rango sean funcionalmente importantes para la adaptación de una especie para identificar refugios completos o parciales; las áreas con mayor probabilidad de ser el hogar de las poblaciones que se mudan hacia nuevos terrenos con climas más adecuados; las áreas con mayor probabilidad de recibir poblaciones después de la dispersión adaptativa por el clima; y áreas con clima inadecuado cerca de las áreas adecuadas. Implementé un protocolo de priorización de área para cada especie y así obtener un conjunto completo de áreas que proporcionarían la máxima adaptabilidad y en donde las intervenciones de manejo deberían priorizarse. Un análisis de conectividad identificó en dónde serían más efectivas las estrategias facilitadoras. Cada una de las 27 especies tuvo requerimientos espaciales distintos, pero, común a todas las especies, se pronosticó un efecto de cuello de botella para el 2050 debido a que las áreas de origen para la dispersión subsecuente tenían una extensión pequeña. Tres especies emergieron como complicadas de mantener hasta el 2080. Mi estudio ofrece directrices analíticas para que los gestores y los órganos de decisión realicen evaluaciones sistemáticas de en dónde y cuándo intervenir para maximizar la persistencia de las especies anfibias y la funcionalidad de los ecosistemas que dependen de ellas.

Software for prioritizing conservation actions based on probabilistic information.

Marxan is the most common decision-support tool used to inform the design of protected-area systems. The original version of Marxan does not consider risk and uncertainty associated with threatening processes affecting protected areas, including uncertainty about the location and condition of species' populations and habitats now and in the future. We described and examined the functionality of a modified version of Marxan, Marxan with Probability. This software explicitly considers 4 types of uncertainty: probability that a feature exists in a particular place (estimated based on species distribution models or spatially explicit population models); probability that features in a site will be lost in the future due to a threatening process, such as climate change, natural catastrophes, and uncontrolled human interventions; probability that a feature will exist in the future due to natural successional processes, such as a fire or flood; and probability the feature exists but has been degraded by threatening processes, such as overfishing or pollution, and thus cannot contribute to conservation goals. We summarized the results of 5 studies that illustrate how each type of uncertainty can be used to inform protected area design. If there were uncertainty in species or habitat distribution, users could maximize the chance that these features were represented by including uncertainty using Marxan with Probability. Similarly, if threatening processes were considered, users minimized the chance that species or habitats were lost or degraded by using Marxan with Probability. Marxan with Probability opens up substantial new avenues for systematic conservation planning research and application by agencies.

Marxan es la herramienta de apoyo a las decisiones que más comúnmente se usa para orientar el diseño de los sistemas de áreas protegidas. La versión original de Marxan no considera el riesgo y la incertidumbre asociados con los procesos amenazantes que afectan a las áreas protegidas, incluyendo la incertidumbre sobre la ubicación y la condición de las poblaciones de las especies y su hábitat ahora y en el futuro. Describimos y analizamos la funcionalidad de una versión modificada de Marxan: Marxan con Probabilidad. Este software considera explícitamente cuatro tipos de incertidumbre: probabilidad de que una característica exista en un lugar en particular (estimada con base en los modelos de distribución de especies o con modelos de población espacialmente explícitos); probabilidad de que las características de un sitio se pierdan en el futuro debido a un proceso amenazante, como el cambio climático, las catástrofes naturales y las intervenciones humanas descontroladas; probabilidad de que una característica existirá en el futuro debido a los procesos naturales de sucesión; como los incendios o las inundaciones; y probabilidad de que una característica exista pero haya sido degradada por los procesos amenazantes, como la sobrepesca y la contaminación, y por lo tanto no puede contribuir a los objetivos de conservación. Sintetizamos los resultados de cinco estudios que ilustraron cómo cada tipo de incertidumbre puede usarse para orientar el diseño del área protegida. Si hubiera incertidumbre en la distribución de la especie o de su hábitat, los usuarios podrían maximizar la posibilidad de que estas características estuvieran representadas mediante la inclusión de Marxan con Probabilidad. De manera similar, si los procesos amenazantes estuvieran considerados, los usuarios minimizarían la posibilidad de que se pierda la especie o degrade el hábitat usando Marxan con Probabilidad. Marxan con Probabilidad abre nuevas vías importantes para la investigación sobre la planeación sistemática de la conservación y su aplicación por parte de las agencias.

Rapidly assessing cobenefits to advance threat-management alliances.

Conservation strategies aimed at reducing threats to biodiversity can have significant implications for multiple sectors in a socioeconomic system, but these cobenefits are often poorly understood. For example, many of the threats to native species also impede agricultural production, yet agriculture is typically perceived as in competition with conservation objectives. Although a comprehensive, multiobjective decision analysis is usually beyond the scope and capacity of conservation decision makers, failing to incorporate key socioeconomic costs and benefits into conservation decision-making processes can result in missed opportunities for diversifying outcomes and creating cost-sharing multisectoral partnerships. We devised a straightforward and readily interpretable approach to incorporate cobenefits into a threat-management prioritization approach. We used it to analyze the agricultural cobenefits of implementing 9 invasive animal management strategies designed to ensure the persistence of 148 threatened species across Australia's Lake Eyre Basin over 50 years. A structured elicitation process with 24 participants (scientists, land managers, agriculturalists, and other stakeholders) was used to collect information on each strategy, including costs, technical and social feasibility, benefits to native threatened species, and cobenefits to agricultural production systems. The costs of targeted invasive animal management to save threatened species across the basin (AU$33 million/year) outweighed the overall benefits to the agricultural industry (estimated AU$226 million/year). The return on investment for these management strategies varied substantially when agricultural cobenefits were considered alongside threatened species benefits and showed synergies and challenges. Our approach demonstrates the value of incorporating cobenefits of conservation actions into cost-effectiveness analyses to guide potential investment and partnerships and to diversify implementation pathways.

Evaluación Rápida de los Cobeneficios para Promover Alianzas de Manejo de Amenazas Resumen Las estrategias de conservación enfocadas en la reducción de las amenazas para la biodiversidad pueden tener implicaciones importantes para muchos sectores de un sistema socioeconómico, pero existe un entendimiento reducido de estos cobeneficios. Por ejemplo, muchas de las amenazas para las especies nativas también impiden la producción agrícola y a pesar de esto, comúnmente se percibe a la agricultura como una competencia para los objetivos de conservación. Aunque un análisis completo de decisiones con objetivos múltiples está usualmente más allá del enfoque y la capacidad del órgano decisorio, no incluir costos y beneficios socioeconómicos importantes dentro del proceso de toma de decisiones puede resultar en oportunidades perdidas para la diversificación de resultados y la creación de colaboraciones multisectoriales con reparto de costes. Diseñamos una estrategia directa y de fácil interpretación para incorporar los cobeneficios dentro de una estrategia de priorización de manejo de amenazas. Usamos esta estrategia para analizar los cobeneficios agrícolas de la implementación de nueve estrategias de manejo de animales invasores diseñadas para asegurar la persistencia de 148 especies amenazadas en la cuenca del Lago Eyre en Australia durante 50 años. Usamos un proceso estructurado de extracción con 24 participantes (científicos, administradores de tierras, agricultores y otros actores) para recolectar información sobre cada estrategia, incluyendo los costos, viabilidad técnica y social, beneficios para las especies nativas amenazadas y los cobeneficios para los sistemas de producción agrícola. Los costos del manejo enfocado en animales invasores para salvar a las especies amenazadas de la cuenca (AU$33 millones al año) superaron a los beneficios generales para la industria agrícola (estimados en AU$226 millones al año). El rendimiento de la inversión para estas estrategias de manejo varió sustancialmente cuando los cobeneficios agrícolas estuvieron considerados junto con los beneficios para las especies amenazadas y mostró retos y sinergias. Nuestra estrategia demuestra la importancia de la incorporación de los cobeneficios de las acciones de conservación dentro de los análisis de rentabilidad para guiar la inversión potencial y las alianzas y para diversificar las vías de implementación.

Assessment of the Conservation Measures Partnership's effort to improve conservation outcomes through adaptive management.

Conservation practice has demonstrated an increasing desire for accountability of actions, particularly with respect to effectiveness, efficiency, and impact to clearly identified objectives. This has been accompanied by increased attention to achieving adaptive management. In 2002, practitioners representing several prominent conservation nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) launched a community of practice called the Conservation Measures Partnership (CMP). The partnership CMP has worked to establish standards of conservation practice to improve accountability of conservation actions through adaptive management. The focal organizing framework for CMP has been the Open Standards for the Practice of Conservation (OS). We evaluated, through an online survey and personal interviews, the first decade of CMP and the OS. The CMP has garnered a positive reputation among agencies, NGOs, and funders and has succeeded in developing a large user base of the OS. However, CMP has not fully achieved its goal of making the OS standard operating procedure for the largest NGOs (e.g., The Nature Conservancy, World Wildlife Fund), despite it being widely used within these organizations. This lack of institutionalization is attributable to multiple causes, including an increase in the number of partially overlapping decision-support frameworks and challenges achieving full-cycle adaptive management. Users strongly believed the OS fosters better conservation practice and highly valued the OS for improving their practice. A primary objective of the OS is to assist practitioners to achieve full-cycle adaptive management to better integrate learning into improving the effectiveness and efficiency of actions. However, most practitioners had not yet achieved cycle completion for their projects. To improve the effectiveness of CMP, OS, and conservation practice in general, we recommend collaborative efforts among the proponents of multiple decision-support frameworks to foster strong institutional adoption of a common set of adaptive-management standards for conservation accountability.

Leveraging technology for the treatment of type 1 diabetes in pregnancy: A review of past, current, and future therapeutic tools.

The significant risks associated with pregnancies complicated by type 1 diabetes (T1D) were first recognized in the medical literature in the mid-twentieth century. Stringent glycemic control with hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) values ideally less than 6% has been shown to improve maternal and fetal outcomes. The management options for pregnant women with T1D in the modern era include a variety of technologies to support self-care. Although self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) and multiple daily injections (MDI) are often the recommended management options during pregnancy, many people with T1D utilize a variety of different technologies, including continuous glucose monitoring (CGM), continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII), and CSII including automated delivery or suspension algorithms. These systems have yielded invaluable diagnostic and therapeutic capabilities and have the potential to benefit this understudied higher-risk group. A recent prospective, multicenter study evaluating pregnant patients with T1D revealed that CGM significantly improves maternal glycemic parameters, is associated with fewer adverse neonatal outcomes, and minimizes burden. Outcome data for CSII, which is approved for use in pregnancy and has been utilized for several decades, remain mixed. Current evidence, although limited, for commercially available and emerging technologies for the management of T1D in pregnancy holds promise for improving patient and fetal outcomes.

Digital health technology and diabetes management.

Diabetes care is largely dependent on patient self-management and empowerment, given that patients with diabetes must make numerous daily decisions as to what to eat, when to exercise, and determine their insulin dose and timing if required. In addition, patients and providers are generating vast amounts of data from many sources, including electronic medical records, insulin pumps, sensors, glucometers, and other wearables, as well as evolving genomic, proteomic, metabolomics, and microbiomic data. Multiple digital tools and apps have been developed to assist patients to choose wisely, and to enhance their compliance by using motivational tools and incorporating incentives from social media and gaming techniques. Healthcare teams (HCTs) and health administrators benefit from digital developments that sift through the enormous amounts of patient-generated data. Data are acquired, integrated, analyzed, and presented in a self-explanatory manner, highlighting important trends and items that require attention. The use of decision support systems may propose data-driven actions that, for the most, require final approval by the patient or physician before execution and, once implemented, may improve patient outcomes. The digital diabetes clinic aims to incorporate all digital patient data and provide individually tailored virtual or face-to-face visits to those persons who need them most. Digital diabetes care has demonstrated only modest HbA1c reduction in multiple studies and borderline cost-effectiveness, although patient satisfaction appears to be increased. Better understanding of the barriers to digital diabetes care and identification of unmet needs may yield improved utilization of this evolving technology in a safe, effective, and cost-saving manner.